Expires:200404242354;;609720
FPUS51 KBTV 240906
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
506 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-242354-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CI

****ERROR: INCOMPLETE DATA




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
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FXUS61 KBTV 240910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
510 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE FOR ALL ZONES. AREA OF RAIN
MOVING THRU CWA HAS EXPANDED AND MVD FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED
INTO AREAS WHERE LITTLE OR NO POPS.
&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT)...WX MAKER FOR TDY WILL BE
THE FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW. CLDS W/ FRONT ALREADY MVG THRU N NY. OBS WEST OF KMSS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RW FALLING...AND EXPECTING THIS TO MV OVER NORTHERN CWA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. QPF AMTS LESS THAN .1"...SO WILL PROBABLY
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR MORNING HRS. MDL GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWING
FOCUS FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN NE KINGDOM FOR SLIGHT CHANCE. SOME CLDS
WILL LINGER IN EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST...WITH FRONT MVG OFF INTO NH/ME. HIGH DOMINATES
FROM LATE AFTERNOON ON INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE OTHER POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR THE CWA TDY ARE FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
AFTER CONSULTING W/ PREVIOUS SHIFT ABOUT DRY AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...CONCERNING POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNING(RFW). WILL OPT NOT TO GO WITH ONE. 2 OF 3 CONDITIONS FOR
SPRING-TIME RFW'S WILL BE MET IN THIS INSTANCE (WIND GUSTS AND LOW
RH'S)...BUT 5 CONSECUTIVE PREVIOUS DAYS OF LESS THAN .25" IS NOT MET.
WILL HIGHLITE WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FWF ISSUANCE BUT WILL NOT ISSUE
RWF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA SLIDES SE OFF EAST COAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MV NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LKS/MIDWEST REGIONS. THE LOW TRACKS NE JUST WEST OF
KMSS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE EVENING HRS MON. SFC LOW WELL
NORTH INTO QUEBEC...WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND FILTERING INTO CWA. UPPER
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A MIX OF SW/RW WITH SOME LIGHT CAA WITH WRAP-
AROUND. WILL ADJUST POPS FOR SUN-TUES TIME-FRAME AS
NEEDED..PROBABLY TO HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR ONSET..TAPERING OFF AS LOW
PUSHES INTO QUEBEC.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY)...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH MVD
OVER REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK NOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WITH
COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SOME LINGERING WRAP-
AROUND AS LOW EXITS REGION ON TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME-FRAME. MRF HAS RIDGE FORECASTED OVER
EASTERN U.S. MAINLY OVER THE APPALACHAINS BY 12Z WED. SOME QPF
SHOWING UP ON MDL OVER THE NE...BUT LOOKS WITH FRONT WELL OUT TO SEA.
GOING FORECAST HAS NO PRECIP MENTIONED AND WILL KEEP THE SAME...REST
OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN EXTENDED...HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON SYSTEM
LATE NEXT WEEK. IF SFC RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST SETTLES TO THE SE...
THIS WOULD ALLOW SYSTEM TO MV OVER THE NE INSTEAD OF UP AND OVER
RIDGE AS NOW FORCASTED IN THE LONG RANGE MDLS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.VT...NONE.
.NY...NONE.

&&

$$

JN





FXUS61 KBTV 240540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT)...WX MAKER FOR TDY WILL BE
THE FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW. CLDS W/ FRONT ALREADY MVG THRU N NY. OBS WEST OF KMSS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RW FALLING...AND EXPECTING THIS TO MV OVER NORTHERN CWA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. QPF AMTS LESS THAN .1"...SO WILL PROBABLY
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR MORNING HRS. MDL GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWING
FOCUS FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN NE KINGDOM FOR SLIGHT CHANCE. SOME CLDS
WILL LINGER IN EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST...WITH FRONT MVG OFF INTO NH/ME. HIGH DOMINATES
FROM LATE AFTERNOON ON INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE OTHER POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR THE CWA TDY ARE FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
AFTER CONSULTING W/ PREVIOUS SHIFT ABOUT DRY AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...CONCERNING POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNING(RFW). WILL OPT NOT TO GO WITH ONE. 2 OF 3 CONDITIONS FOR
SPRING-TIME RFW'S WILL BE MET IN THIS INSTANCE (WIND GUSTS AND LOW
RH'S)...BUT 5 CONSECUTIVE PREVIOUS DAYS OF LESS THAN .25" IS NOT MET.
WILL HIGHLITE WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FWF ISSUANCE BUT WILL NOT ISSUE
RWF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA SLIDES SE OFF EAST COAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MV NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LKS/MIDWEST REGIONS. THE LOW TRACKS NE JUST WEST OF
KMSS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE EVENING HRS MON. SFC LOW WELL
NORTH INTO QUEBEC...WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND FILTERING INTO CWA. UPPER
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A MIX OF SW/RW WITH SOME LIGHT CAA WITH WRAP-
AROUND. WILL ADJUST POPS FOR SUN-TUES TIME-FRAME AS
NEEDED..PROBABLY TO HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR ONSET..TAPERING OFF AS LOW
PUSHES INTO QUEBEC.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY)...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH MVD
OVER REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK NOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WITH
COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SOME LINGERING WRAP-
AROUND AS LOW EXITS REGION ON TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME-FRAME. MRF HAS RIDGE FORECASTED OVER
EASTERN U.S. MAINLY OVER THE APPALACHAINS BY 12Z WED. SOME QPF
SHOWING UP ON MDL OVER THE NE...BUT LOOKS WITH FRONT WELL OUT TO SEA.
GOING FORECAST HAS NO PRECIP MENTIONED AND WILL KEEP THE SAME...REST
OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN EXTENDED...HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON SYSTEM
LATE NEXT WEEK. IF SFC RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST SETTLES TO THE SE...
THIS WOULD ALLOW SYSTEM TO MV OVER THE NE INSTEAD OF UP AND OVER
RIDGE AS NOW FORCASTED IN THE LONG RANGE MDLS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.VT...NONE.
.NY...NONE.

&&

$$

JN






FXUS61 KBTV 240215
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 PM EDT FRI APR 23 2004

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ATTM. WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS
TO READ BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. RADAR LOOP SHOWING NOT
MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ATTM WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WE DO GET
WILL BE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY...SO HAVE UPDATED THE TIMING
FOR SHOWERS IN THE ZONE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT.  FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE AND
DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY.  SNOW LEVEL DROPS TO 2000
FEET DURING THIS TIME...SO WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND MIXING OCCURS TO 5000-7000 FEET.  NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR TO ALSO ADVECT IN AND SKIES WILL BECOME SUNNY.  WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT...POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS EXIST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  FUEL MOISTURES...1 AND 10
HOUR...ARE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES AND AS A RESULT...MIDNIGHT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD COME SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT
OVER THE AREA CAUSING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.  SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE START OF SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THUS GOING FORECAST OF LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS LOOKS REAL GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.  THE RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED IN THE MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUE THRU FRI)...
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PORTION PICKS UP THE FORECAST AFTER THE SURFACE FRONT
HAS PASSED...BUT AXIS OF FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 HPA IS STILL
BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER THAN
WHAT WE WERE LOOKING AT YESTERDAY...WITH 250 HPA JET OF 110 KTS OR
SO DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE. PASSAGE IS DELAYED BY ABOUT 12
HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

LOWERED POPS ON TUESDAY BASED ON SLOWING OF TROUGH...AND LEFT DRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE UPPER DYNAMICS...ENOUGH DRYING
AT LOW LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.

QUITE A COLD POOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AT 12Z WED COOLING DOWN TO
-5C OR SO...AND 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS DOWN TO 525 ALONG SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.  QUICK WARMUP FOR WED WITH RETURN TO SW FLOW...SO
COLD TEMPS WON'T LAST LONG.  OVERALL ACCEPTED GUIDANCE
TEMPS...EXCEPT LOWERED LOWS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE A SUMMERTIME PATTERN.  500
HPA HEIGHTS RISE AS WESTERLIES RETREAT NORTH...AND A
BERMUDA/SOUTHEAST US SURFACE HIGH SETS UP. WILL SEE A MODERATION IN
TEMPS...AND DRY FORECAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.VT...NONE.
.NY...NONE.

&&

$$

WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 231950
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EDT FRI APR 23 2004

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT.  FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE AND
DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY.  SNOW LEVEL DROPS TO 2000
FEET DURING THIS TIME...SO WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND MIXING OCCURS TO 5000-7000 FEET.  NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR TO ALSO ADVECT IN AND SKIES WILL BECOME SUNNY.  WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT...POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS EXIST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  FUEL MOISTURES...1 AND 10
HOUR...ARE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES AND AS A RESULT...MIDNIGHT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD COME SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT
OVER THE AREA CAUSING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.  SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE START OF SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THUS GOING FORECAST OF LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS LOOKS REAL GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.  THE RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED IN THE MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (TUE THRU FRI)...
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PORTION PICKS UP THE FORECAST AFTER THE SURFACE FRONT
HAS PASSED...BUT AXIS OF FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 HPA IS STILL
BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER THAN
WHAT WE WERE LOOKING AT YESTERDAY...WITH 250 HPA JET OF 110 KTS OR
SO DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE. PASSAGE IS DELAYED BY ABOUT 12
HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

LOWERED POPS ON TUESDAY BASED ON SLOWING OF TROUGH...AND LEFT DRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE UPPER DYNAMICS...ENOUGH DRYING
AT LOW LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.

QUITE A COLD POOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AT 12Z WED COOLING DOWN TO
-5C OR SO...AND 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS DOWN TO 525 ALONG SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.  QUICK WARMUP FOR WED WITH RETURN TO SW FLOW...SO
COLD TEMPS WON'T LAST LONG.  OVERALL ACCEPTED GUIDANCE
TEMPS...EXCEPT LOWERED LOWS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE A SUMMERTIME PATTERN.  500
HPA HEIGHTS RISE AS WESTERLIES RETREAT NORTH...AND A
BERMUDA/SOUTHEAST US SURFACE HIGH SETS UP. WILL SEE A MODERATION IN
TEMPS...AND DRY FORECAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.VT...NONE.
.NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

151
ASUS51 KBTV 241011
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-241100-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    47  45  93 SW6       29.98R
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  45  42  89 S7        29.99S
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  44  43  96 SW3       29.97F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     43  41  93 VRB3      29.96R
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    46  43  87 SW3       30.00F
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    42  42 100 SE3       30.01F
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    45  43  93 N3        30.02F



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