Expires:200405082156;;932916
FPUS51 KBTV 080755 CCA
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-082156-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
355 AM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING
WEST 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS AROUND 40. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND
40. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 080715
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 AM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...

COLD NIGHT OUT THERE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES LETTING TEMPS RADIATE
AWAY...DOWN TO 20 AT KSLK...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE 30S
NOW. WINDS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED
OUT..WITH COLCHESTER REEF AT 43 DEGREES. VERY DRY AIRMASS...WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER
IN THE DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...WE GET SOME WEAK RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. BACKED OFF CHCS FOR PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...WILL TAKE QUITE A
WHILE FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE ENOUGH FOR ANY RAINFALL TO REACH THE
GROUND. EXPECT INCREASING...THEN LOWERING...CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER IN THE DAY.

WEATHER PATTERN OVER NEXT FEW DAYS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT STEERS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
VORT MAXES AND REMNANTS OF MCS'S FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MAKING
THEM JUST SKIRT THE SRN EDGE OF BTV'S FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...A FRONT VACILLATES BACK AND FORTH AS A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES...THEN A WARMFNT MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT TIED TO VORTMAXES/MCS REMNANTS...WITH BEST
CHANCES TO SOUTH...AND TAPERING OFF TO NORTH.

MORE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON MONDAY...HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING DETAILS IN THIS FAST WESTERLY FLOW. ETA IS SIGNIFICANTLY
FASTER BRINGING PRECIP IN TO REGION ON MONDAY WELL AHEAD OF SURFACE
TROUGH. HELD OFF TIL LATER ON...LEANING TOWARD SLOWER GFS WHERE
PRECIP MORE TIED TO SURFACE TROUGH.

TREND FOR RISING HEIGHTS BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK STILL SUPPORT WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

HANSON








FXUS61 KBTV 080214
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1013 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW JUST A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS ARE TAPERING OFF AS
FORECAST...SO THE MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LOOKS
GOOD.  THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S WITH
SOME TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS ALSO COVERED WELL IN THE
GOING FORECAST.  THUS NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM...

SHORT TERM: CDFNT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MID ATLC RGN...AND
IT WL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE IT COMPLETES THE RETURN TRIP NORTH
THRU FA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN GRTLKS WILL BE DOMINNAT WX FEATURE
THRU SATURDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACRS FA LATER TONITE/SAT
AM...AND THEN MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY SAT EVENING.
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRESIST THRU WEEKEND...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE RAPIDLY EAST FROM GRTLKS/OH VLY. THIS WILL BRING
CHC OF SHWRS AT TIMES TO RGN LATER SAT THRU MONDAY. ALTHO...MUCH OF
TIME EXPECTED TO RMN DRY AS MUCH OF THE SUPPORT AND PCPN ASSOCD WITH
THESE DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF FA.

TON/SAT: COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO FA THIS PM.
CLDS DISSIPATING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR. DWPTS UPSTREAM
ACRS SRN CANADA ARE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. WNDS WILL BE A FACTOR
FOR FIRST PART OF TONITE...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH AS HIGH
APRCHS AND GRADIENT SLACKENS. MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER TONITE
WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WNDS. NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED WITH MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED VLYS.
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND CHILLY. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...EXPECT
AN INCR IN CLDS AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DVLPS. TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. ALSO CHC SHWRS LATER
IN DAY...ESPECIALLY WRN AND SRN SECTIONS OF FA WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING
AND APRCH OF SHRTWV.

SAT NITE THRU MON: CHC SHWRS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS
SOUTHERN ZONES. FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH DEPARTURE OF
WEAK LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BCMS REESTABLISHED ACRS SRN CANADA...
ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. NEXT DISTURBANCE APRCHS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AGAIN...THE BEST CHC SHWRS WILL BE SOUTH. FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN
BRINGS CHC SHWRS TO ENTIRE FA ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED...LATEST GFS AND ENSEMBLES DATA IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS EASTERN CONUS AND
TROF OVER NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS
WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC WARM FRNT
LIFTING ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...MODELS PLACE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH
SYSTEM ACRS CENTRAL GREAT LKS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...85H
TEMPS NEAR 10C WEDS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH NEAR 80F EXPECTED
FOR THURS AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WL BECM INCREASING MORE UNSTABLE
AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES LATE NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE CHCS FOR
AFTN/EVENING TS WL INCREASE. GIVEN TIME FRAME AND EXPECTED COVERAGE
WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

THE FOLLOWING ARE A FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THAT MAY BE
APPROACHED SATURDAY, MAY 8:

BURLINGTON....25  (1962)
MONTPELIER....21  (1956)
ST JOHNSBURY..22  (1950)
MASSENA.......23  (1956)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/BOT






FXUS61 KBTV 071952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2004

SHORT TERM: CDFNT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MID ATLC RGN...AND
IT WL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE IT COMPLETES THE RETURN TRIP NORTH
THRU FA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN GRTLKS WILL BE DOMINNAT WX FEATURE
THRU SATURDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACRS FA LATER TONITE/SAT
AM...AND THEN MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY SAT EVENING.
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRESIST THRU WEEKEND...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE RAPIDLY EAST FROM GRTLKS/OH VLY. THIS WILL BRING
CHC OF SHWRS AT TIMES TO RGN LATER SAT THRU MONDAY. ALTHO...MUCH OF
TIME EXPECTED TO RMN DRY AS MUCH OF THE SUPPORT AND PCPN ASSOCD WITH
THESE DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF FA.

TON/SAT: COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO FA THIS PM.
CLDS DISSIPATING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR. DWPTS UPSTREAM
ACRS SRN CANADA ARE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. WNDS WILL BE A FACTOR
FOR FIRST PART OF TONITE...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH AS HIGH
APRCHS AND GRADIENT SLACKENS. MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER TONITE
WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WNDS. NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED WITH MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED VLYS.
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND CHILLY. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...EXPECT
AN INCR IN CLDS AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DVLPS. TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. ALSO CHC SHWRS LATER
IN DAY...ESPECIALLY WRN AND SRN SECTIONS OF FA WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING
AND APRCH OF SHRTWV.

SAT NITE THRU MON: CHC SHWRS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS
SOUTHERN ZONES. FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH DEPARTURE OF
WEAK LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BCMS REESTABLISHED ACRS SRN CANADA...
ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. NEXT DISTURBANCE APRCHS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AGAIN...THE BEST CHC SHWRS WILL BE SOUTH. FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN
BRINGS CHC SHWRS TO ENTIRE FA ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED...LATEST GFS AND ENSEMBLES DATA IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS EASTERN CONUS AND
TROF OVER NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS
WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC WARM FRNT
LIFTING ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...MODELS PLACE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH
SYSTEM ACRS CENTRAL GREAT LKS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...85H
TEMPS NEAR 10C WEDS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH NEAR 80F EXPECTED
FOR THURS AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WL BECM INCREASING MORE UNSTABLE
AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES LATE NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE CHCS FOR
AFTN/EVENING TS WL INCREASE. GIVEN TIME FRAME AND EXPECTED COVERAGE
WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

THE FOLLOWING ARE A FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THAT MAY BE
APPROACHED SATURDAY, MAY 8:

BURLINGTON....25  (1962)
MONTPELIER....21  (1956)
ST JOHNSBURY..22  (1950)
MASSENA.......23  (1956)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/BOT














   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

045
ASUS51 KBTV 081011
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 08 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-081100-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     30  23  75 CALM      30.43R
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     27  18  69 S5        30.42R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     28  22  78 CALM      30.39R
RUTLAND        CLEAR     30  21  69 CALM      30.42R
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     30  24  78 CALM      30.41R
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    35  20  54 CALM      30.39R



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