Expires:200406302159;;181197
FPUS51 KBTV 300729
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-302159-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
330 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50
PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN 50
PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 300846
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
445 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)...
AXIS OF SHRTWV TROF HAS MOVED EAST OF FA...WITH WK SFC FRONT
LAGGING A BIT BEHIND. HOWEVER...ALL PCPN WAS DIRECTLY ASSOCD WITH
THE SHRTWV...AND HAS EXITED FA. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME MOSTLY
CLR ACRS MUCH OF FA.

DURING TODAY...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO FA WHICH WILL
RESULT IN MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. JUST SOME SC/CU DVLPMNT LATER
AM/PM...MAINLY OVR HIR TRRN. H8 TEMPS OF AROUND +10 SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN 70S.

DRY WX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONITE WITH GENERALLY CLR SKIES MUCH OF
NIGHT. HIGH MOVES EAST OF FA ALLOWING FOR LLVL FLOW TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF FA THIS AM RETURNS NORTH AS
WRMFNT LATER TONITE.

DURING THURS...STRONG SHRTWV APRCHS FROM NORTH OF GRTLKS. ATMOS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATLY UNSTABLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AS
SFC TD'S CLIMB TO AROUND 60F WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWEER 80S. THIS WOULD SUPPORT CAPES IN 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND
LI'S OF -1 TO -4. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AS WELL WITH MID LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW OF 35-45 KTS...WITH HIGHEST VALUES NRN PTN OF FA. COMBINATION
OF DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY LEAD TO DVLPMNT OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH HIGH WNDS BEING MAIN THREAT. LIMITED
FACTOR COULD BE THE INSTABILITY...IF THERE IS MORE CLDNSS THAN
EXPECTED WITH WRMFNT AND PREFRONTAL TROF.

HIGH PRESSURE BLDS EAST FROM GRTLKS FRI INTO FRI NITE. EXPECT PRTLY
SUNNY SKIES FRI AS COOL POOL ALOFT RESULTS IN SC/CU DVLPMNT.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE RMNS
OVER FA ON SATURDAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATER IN HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCD SFC LOW APRCH FROM GRTKS/OH
VLY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA LATER SUN INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
WDLY SCT IFR/MVFR VIS/CEILINGS IN BR/FG ACROSS FAVORED MTN LOCALES
THROUGH 12Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT COURSE OF
NEXT 24 HRS WITH ONLY SCT CUMULUS BASES BTWN 4-6K FT THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/JMG








FXUS61 KBTV 291807
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
207 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
BAND OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON ARE LIMITING THE ABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE
AND BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...MIXING HAS RESULTED
IN A DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DESTABILIZATION. AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC PROVINCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. AS IT
DOES...SPEED SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THIS
SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK. FEEL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT
THUNDER POTENTIAL MAY DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
DEFICIENT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS...WILL MENTION LIKELY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. FEEL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT REACHES THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY GIVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT AT 700 MB ADVECTING IN AND
MOST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. OTHER THAN SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS...NO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER EXPECTED. DESPITE COLD FRONT HAVING
MOVED THROUGH...WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL RESULT HIGH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE TOWARD THE
REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST COMPOSITE CHART ONCE AGAIN
SHOWING PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. DYNAMIC SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EASILY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
LIFT TO GENERATE THE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE GREATER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT EXISTS OVER THE REGION. LAPSE RATE BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB
SHOWS DRY ADIABATIC CONDITIONS WHICH WILL HELP GENERATE THE
INSTABILITY. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MAGNITUDE OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...DYNAMICS...AND THERMODYNAMICS ALL SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE CONVECTION.

DRY WEATHER TO RETURN ON FRIDAY AS LARGE HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
EXITING SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURE WARMING TO AT OR ABOVE 80F. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE FORMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITH GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION AND UPWARD MOTION
WILL BE GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE.
AFTERWARDS...LOOKS LIKE WHEN LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION A
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ADVECTING IN. SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG BOUNDARY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE OUR CWA WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS
PERIOD SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT BRIEFLY
DROPPING INTO MVFR PERIODICALLY. AFTERWARDS...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED DECK AT OR ABOVE 4 KFT. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS WELL. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG AT KSLK AND KMPV BETWEEN 08Z
AND 10Z WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING DOWN TO 2SM AND CEILINGS BKN003.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM....LAHIFF




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTSUNNY 68 43 40 W10G16 30.00S
MONTPELIER PTSUNNY 67 44 43 SW9 30.05S
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 67 46 47 VRB6 30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY N/A 70 46 42 VRB7 29.98F
RUTLAND CLOUDY 64 45 48 SW9 30.05S
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 71 47 42 W9 30.04F
BENNINGTON PTSUNNY 68 48 48 VRB7 30.05F

______KEY______
VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN



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