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Expires:200412080013;;447358
FPUS51 KBUF 070913
ZFPBUF
ZONE FORECASTS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
413 AM EST TUE DEC 7 2004
VTZ006-080013-
MORRISVILLE-LAMOILLE VT
44.53N 72.62W
413 AM EST TUE DEC 7 2004
DATE TUE 12/07/04 WED 12/08/04 THU 12/09/04
UTC 3HRLY 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23
EST 3HRLY 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18
MAX/MIN 32 30 39 20 34
TEMP 21 22 26 28 30 34 36 35 35 36 36 34 32 29 26 24 25 29 33 33 32
DEWPT 19 20 22 25 27 30 32 30 29 30 31 29 25 22 21 20 20 21 23 25 26
RH 92 92 85 88 88 85 85 82 78 79 82 82 75 75 81 84 81 72 66 72 78
WIND DIR SE SE SE SE S S S S SW W W W NW NW NW N NW S S S S
WIND SPD 12 18 20 20 11 10 5 3 12 17 18 17 13 12 6 3 5 3 8 8 9
WIND GUST 29 29 23 18 27 31 32 32 31 28
CLOUDS OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC
POP 12HR 90 90 60 30 10
QPF 12HR 0.24 0.29 0.12 0.05 0
SNOW 12HR 2 T T
SLEET C D D D
RAIN SHWRS L L
FRZG DRZL
FRZG RAIN D D
SNOW C C D
RAIN D L L
SNOWSHWRS L L C C
WIND CHILL 9 7 12 15 20 26 26 26 26 23 22 19 18 18 26 26 24
MIN CHILL 7 7 13 22 26 25 21 17 17 19 24
DATE FRI 12/10/04 SAT 12/11/04 SUN 12/12/04 MON 12/13/04
UTC 6HRLY 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23
EST 6HRLY 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18
MIN/MAX 27 37 31 36 23 34 14 26
TEMP 30 29 35 35 33 32 35 31 28 26 31 26 22 19 24 22
DEWPT 25 24 27 29 28 26 29 28 21 19 19 20 15 12 13 15
PWIND DIR S S SW W W W W NW
WIND CHAR GN GN GN GN BZ GN LT LT
AVG CLOUDS SC BK OV OV OV OV BK BK BK SC SC SC SC BK BK BK
POP 12HR 10 40 40 40 10 10 30 30
SNOW C C C C C C
RAIN C C
SNOWSHWRS C C C C
$$
REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
_________________________________________________________________
FXUS61 KBTV 071018 AAA
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
510 AM EST TUE DEC 7 2004
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU THURSDAY)...
LATEST GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER MODEL
RUNS...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALL ZONES...EXTENDED
INTO TONIGHT FOR EASTERN VT AND NRN ST LWR VLY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TDY GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT AS MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES IN
NC/NE VT. SOME ICING PSBL ALL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN VT AND
NRN ST LWR VLY LATER TDY/EARLY TONITE.
STG SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF LOWER PLAINS WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING SFC
LOW WHICH WL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF MISS VLY THIS AM INTO CNTRL
GRTLKS RGN LATER TDY...INTO SRN ONTARIO TONITE AND ACRS SRN QUE
DURING WEDNESDAY. ETA CONTINUES WITH A BIT MORE NRN TRACK THAN GFS.
SECONDARY LOW DVLPS OFF CNTRL NEW ENG CST TONITE AND BECOMES PRIMARY
LOW WED AS IT STRENGTHENS AND HEADS INTO MARITIMES.
PCPN OCCURRING ACRS FA ATTM IS GENERALLY QUITE LIGHT AND IN FORM OF
SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. EXPECT ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW
TO MIX WITH SLEET OR MAYBE A LITTLE FZRA/FZDZ THIS AM INTO EARLY
PM. MOST SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO OCCUR LATER THIS PM THRU EARLY TONITE
WITH STRONGER WAA AND LIFT COUPLED WITH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT. LLVL COLD AIR WILL ERODE DURING THE LATE PM IN ADRNDKS AND
SRN PTNS OF CHMPLN/ST LWR VLY...BUT NOT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING ACRS
EASTERN VT AND NRN ST LWR VLY REGION. MIN TEMPS TONITE WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND WHERE MAX TEMPS TDY ARE...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE FRZG IN PARTS OF NE VT
UNTIL MOST OF PCPN HAS ENDED OR BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.
DURING WEDNESDAY...ULVL TROF RMNS OVER RGN FOR MUCH OF DAY WHILE CYC
FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW. RGN WILL BE UNDER CAA ALL
DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY TO BE REACHED EARLY IN DAY. EXPECT
MAINLY CLDY SKIES WITH SCT RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS. SOME
MINOR SNOW ACCUM PSBL OVR HIR TRRN. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WNDS
DURING WED...ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN NY WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEEED 40 MPH.
SFC RIDGE THEN MOVES ACRS FA LATER WED NITE ALLOWING FOR SOME CLRNG
AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
LONG TERM (THURS ONWARD)...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL KEYING IN ON LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR
NEXT SIGNIFICANT EVENT...WHICH IS SHAPING UP AS RAIN OR MIXED PCPN
TO START...CHANGING TO MAINLY SNOW. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
HOWEVER REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTING QPF.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
WIDSPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY AS BROAD WAA PATTERN AND MIXED
PRECIP CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO
MAINLY LIQUID THIS EVENING. MIXED PRECIP IN MAINLY -SNPL TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z...THEN A GENERAL DRY PERIOD BTWN 12-18Z...THOUGH
MARGINAL MVFR VIS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. MAIN PRECIP EVENT TO ARRIVE AFTER 20Z ACROSS AREA. INITIAL
ONSET SHOULD BE MIXED -FZRASNPL....THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS AREA DURING 21-00Z TIME FRAME. EXCEPTION WOULD
LIE ACROSS NE VT AND IN IMMEDIATE SLV WHERE TAF SITES OF KMPV AND
KMSS WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO -FZRA CONDS FOR MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS
ALONG WITH AIRCRAFT ICING CONCERNS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS PM.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS PM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC......RJS
AVIATION....JMG
FXUS61 KBTV 070350 AAA
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 PM EST MON DEC 6 2004
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
WEAK ELONGATED VORT AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR GNRL AREA OF -SN CONTS TO
LIFT NE OUT OF FA WITH WEAK WAA IN MOISTEN ATMOSPHERE STL ACCNTG FOR
SPOTTY AND VRY LGT -SN/-PL AND PSBLY -FZDZ TOWARD MRNG. NO/LTL ACCUM
XPCTD AND SCT ACTVTY...THUS HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z-24Z)...
SCT AND VRY LGT -SN/-PL AND PSBL -FZDZ THRU 15/16Z WITH WEAK WAA ACRS
MOIST/COLD AIRMASS. STEADIER PCPN RETURNING WITH STGR WAA AND MID-LVL
DYNAMICS AFT 16-18Z BUT THE WAA AHD WL GO INTO AIRMASS WRMG THUS PCPN
WL LKLY BE IN THE FORM OF -PL/-FZRA BFR GRDL CHGOVR RA BTWN 20-24Z.
MVFR CONDS FOR MUCH OF EVENT WITH VFR AT TIMES THRU 16Z AND THEN IFR
CONDS WITH STEADIER PCPN. ALTHOUGH SFC PCPN MAY BE SPOTTY AND LGT TIL
16Z...WRMG ALOFT LKLY TO PROMOTE ICING CONDS ALOFT THRU PERIOD.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION - SHORT TERM (TNGT-WED NGT)...
OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOWS EXPECTED ACRS FA THIS EVENING AS SHRTWV
LIFTS NE ACRS RGN. POPS STRATIFIED FROM S TO N WITH CHC FAR N INCRG
TO LIKELY FURTHER S...THEN POPS DECRG AFT MIDNGT AS SHRTWV LIFTS N
OF RGN. SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST POTL OF FZDZ AS MILDER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT WITH COLDEST SATURATED LAYER ABOVE -10. SNOW ACCUM
T-2" WITH HIEST AMTS FROM SRN ST LAW VLY THRU SRN ADRNDCKS AND SRN
VT.
SGFNT SHRTWV AND ASSOCD DEEPENING SFC LOW FCST TO LIFT NE FROM MS
VLY ERLY TUE. ETA STILL FURTHER N THAN GFS WITH LOW TRACK N AND W
OF FA WHILE GFS TRACKS LOW ACRS NRN FA. 12Z ETA ABT 150 MILES
FURTHER S WITH LOW COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN SO TREND IS COLDER.
BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT SECONDARY DEVT LIKELY IN GULF OF ME TUE NGT
WITH THIS SYS BECOMING MAIN PLAYER WED AS IT MOVES INTO MARITIMES.
JUST SPOTTY LGT PCPN EXPECTED TUE MRNG WITH MORE SGFNT SLUG OF MSTR
MOVING IN DURG TUE AFTN/EVENING AS STG QG LIFT MOVES INTO RGN WITH
MAX LIFT ARND 00Z WED. AS MODELS HAV TRENDED COLDER...LOW LVL COLD
AIR SLOW TO ERODE SUGGESTING LONGER PD OF SLEET/FZRA PSBL BEFORE LOW
LVL WARMER AIR WINS OUT. PTYPE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET IN THE
MORNING...THEN GRDLY CHANGING TO SLEET/FZRA THEN RA DURG AFTN/EVNG
FROM SW TO NE ACRS FA. SINCE BULK OF QPF AFT 18Z WHEN TEMPS ALF
WARMING NOT LOOKING FOR MCH SNOW ACCUM WITH MAX AMTS ARND 2-3" NC/NE
VT. AFT COORD WITH SURROUNDING WFOS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADVSY
SINCE SECOND PD EVENT...BUT ADVSY WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ERLY MRNG
FCST. ISSUED SPS TO HILITE POTL ICY WX.
POCKETS OF FZRA/SLEET WL LIKELY LINGER TUE EVENING ACRS NRN/ERN VT
AND NRN ST LAW VLY THEN EXPECT PCPN TO BECOME ALL RA XCP PSBLY IN
FAR NE VT WHERE POCKETS OF FZRA MAY LINGER. HWVR PCPN SHD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF AFT MIDNGT.
DEEPER COLD AIR MOVES BACK INTO RGN ON WED AS INCRG NW FLOW DVLPS
BHND DEPARTING LOW WITH SCT RA SHWRS TRENDING TOWARD SNW SHWRS.
LINGERING NTN SNW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW PSBL WED EVNG THEN BECOMING
PTCLDY AS SFC RIDGE MOVS EWD INTO RGN.
&&
.LONG TERM (THU ONWARD)...
THE GOING FCST CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY GOOD IN THIS TIME-FRAME WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED FOR NOW. HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON
THU. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE EUROPEAN MODELS)
INDICATES THAT THE STORM SYS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK MAY END UP BEING
A COASTAL STORM...SO HAVE UPPED CLD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST FOR THEN. WENT WITH CHC OF RA/SN ON FRI AND SN ON
FRI NITE/SAT FOR NOW. WK HI PRESS STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FA ON
SUN. WENT WITH A CHC OF SHSN FOR SUN NITE/MON WITH A CLIPPER SYS
POSSIBLE THEN. FEW TWEAKS TO OUR GOING TEMP/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE AND TO TRY AND MESH A LIL BETTER WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS.
&&
.AVIATION...
-SN TO SPREAD UP ACRS MUCH OF THE FA FROM THE W-SW INTO EARLY
TONITE. FORCING FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN APPEARS TO LIFT OUT ACRS THE FA
BY LATER TONITE AND WILL CONT TO INDICATE SOME -FZDZ POSSIBLE AT THE
TAF SITES BASED ON THE LATEST ETA BUFR DATA. LT SFC WINDS TO
EVENTUALLY BECOME STRONGER EARLY ON TUE OUT OF A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT KBTV/KMPV AND A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT KMSS/KSLK.
BULK OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PCPN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT OR AFTER 18Z TUE AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATED...SLW
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MURRAY
FXUS61 KBTV 062151 AAA
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 PM EST MON DEC 6 2004
.SHORT TERM (TNGT-WED NGT)...
OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOWS EXPECTED ACRS FA THIS EVENING AS SHRTWV
LIFTS NE ACRS RGN. POPS STRATIFIED FROM S TO N WITH CHC FAR N INCRG
TO LIKELY FURTHER S...THEN POPS DECRG AFT MIDNGT AS SHRTWV LIFTS N
OF RGN. SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST POTL OF FZDZ AS MILDER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT WITH COLDEST SATURATED LAYER ABOVE -10. SNOW ACCUM
T-2" WITH HIEST AMTS FROM SRN ST LAW VLY THRU SRN ADRNDCKS AND SRN
VT.
SGFNT SHRTWV AND ASSOCD DEEPENING SFC LOW FCST TO LIFT NE FROM MS
VLY ERLY TUE. ETA STILL FURTHER N THAN GFS WITH LOW TRACK N AND W
OF FA WHILE GFS TRACKS LOW ACRS NRN FA. 12Z ETA ABT 150 MILES
FURTHER S WITH LOW COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN SO TREND IS COLDER.
BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT SECONDARY DEVT LIKELY IN GULF OF ME TUE NGT
WITH THIS SYS BECOMING MAIN PLAYER WED AS IT MOVES INTO MARITIMES.
JUST SPOTTY LGT PCPN EXPECTED TUE MRNG WITH MORE SGFNT SLUG OF MSTR
MOVING IN DURG TUE AFTN/EVENING AS STG QG LIFT MOVES INTO RGN WITH
MAX LIFT ARND 00Z WED. AS MODELS HAV TRENDED COLDER...LOW LVL COLD
AIR SLOW TO ERODE SUGGESTING LONGER PD OF SLEET/FZRA PSBL BEFORE LOW
LVL WARMER AIR WINS OUT. PTYPE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET IN THE
MORNING...THEN GRDLY CHANGING TO SLEET/FZRA THEN RA DURG AFTN/EVNG
FROM SW TO NE ACRS FA. SINCE BULK OF QPF AFT 18Z WHEN TEMPS ALF
WARMING NOT LOOKING FOR MCH SNOW ACCUM WITH MAX AMTS ARND 2-3" NC/NE
VT. AFT COORD WITH SURROUNDING WFOS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADVSY
SINCE SECOND PD EVENT...BUT ADVSY WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ERLY MRNG
FCST. ISSUED SPS TO HILITE POTL ICY WX.
POCKETS OF FZRA/SLEET WL LIKELY LINGER TUE EVENING ACRS NRN/ERN VT
AND NRN ST LAW VLY THEN EXPECT PCPN TO BECOME ALL RA XCP PSBLY IN
FAR NE VT WHERE POCKETS OF FZRA MAY LINGER. HWVR PCPN SHD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF AFT MIDNGT.
DEEPER COLD AIR MOVES BACK INTO RGN ON WED AS INCRG NW FLOW DVLPS
BHND DEPARTING LOW WITH SCT RA SHWRS TRENDING TOWARD SNW SHWRS.
LINGERING NTN SNW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW PSBL WED EVNG THEN BECOMING
PTCLDY AS SFC RIDGE MOVS EWD INTO RGN.
&&
.LONG TERM (THU ONWARD)...
THE GOING FCST CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY GOOD IN THIS TIME-FRAME WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED FOR NOW. HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON
THU. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE EUROPEAN MODELS)
INDICATES THAT THE STORM SYS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK MAY END UP BEING
A COASTAL STORM...SO HAVE UPPED CLD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST FOR THEN. WENT WITH CHC OF RA/SN ON FRI AND SN ON
FRI NITE/SAT FOR NOW. WK HI PRESS STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FA ON
SUN. WENT WITH A CHC OF SHSN FOR SUN NITE/MON WITH A CLIPPER SYS
POSSIBLE THEN. FEW TWEAKS TO OUR GOING TEMP/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE AND TO TRY AND MESH A LIL BETTER WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS.
&&
.AVIATION...
-SN TO SPREAD UP ACRS MUCH OF THE FA FROM THE W-SW INTO EARLY
TONITE. FORCING FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN APPEARS TO LIFT OUT ACRS THE FA
BY LATER TONITE AND WILL CONT TO INDICATE SOME -FZDZ POSSIBLE AT THE
TAF SITES BASED ON THE LATEST ETA BUFR DATA. LT SFC WINDS TO
EVENTUALLY BECOME STRONGER EARLY ON TUE OUT OF A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT KBTV/KMPV AND A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT KMSS/KSLK.
BULK OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PCPN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT OR AFTER 18Z TUE AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MURRAY
This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
Network)
References
1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html
699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTSUNNY 68 43 40 W10G16 30.00S
MONTPELIER PTSUNNY 67 44 43 SW9 30.05S
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 67 46 47 VRB6 30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY N/A 70 46 42 VRB7 29.98F
RUTLAND CLOUDY 64 45 48 SW9 30.05S
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 71 47 42 W9 30.04F
BENNINGTON PTSUNNY 68 48 48 VRB7 30.05F
______KEY______
VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN
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