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SKIVT-L  December 2004, Week 3

SKIVT-L December 2004, Week 3

Subject:

Uh Oh on Thursday

From:

Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 20 Dec 2004 20:54:29 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (45 lines)

I've got some bad news. There's no way around it. Get out and ski on
Tuesday and Wednesday if you can. Cause the dreaded R word will be here
on Thursday and there's pretty much no way to avoid it.

A storm system will move through the Ohio Valley up through western NY or
the eastern Great Lakes region. This will put New England in the warm
sector with temperatures rising through the 40's to possibly 50 in some
spots. This will definitely set us back a couple of weeks. Rain will be
heavy on Thursday with some upslope areas seeing over 2" of rain. This
storm will have plenty of moisture and the Gulf of Mexico is wide open.
Some areas in the Ohio Valley could see record snows of up to two feet.

Now the rain wouldn't be too bad if temperatures stayed in the low to mid
30's. But this system will be intense and the strong southerly flow might
even create some wind problems on Thursday in mountainous areas. That
strong southerly flow will blast temperatures way up into the 40's,
especially in the Adirondacks and western VT. The northeast kingdom of
Vermont and some valley locations of the White Mountains might get away
with temperatures holding in the mid 30's.

After that, we get the quick and rapid freeze with possibly some wrap
around upslope precipitation. The general 1-4" of wrap around light
density snows will follow on Thursday night and Friday with the quick cold
air intrusion. Then models develop another storm system that will stay
too far east for much impact during Christmas Day. It might bring a white
Christmas for many places down south including VA,NC,SC,GA, ect.

Now, not to add insult to injury, New Orleans, LA could also see their
first white Christmas ever. A storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico and
when the cold moving south after the storm on Thursday reaches the Gulf
coast...snow could fall, and significant snow at that. I'd bet against it
right now, but even the NWS down there noticed the column would be cold
enough for all snow with up to a half inch of liquid precip.

So, no white Christmas in the northeast, except mountainous areas, but the
potential for a white Christmas all the way from the Great Lakes to the
Gulf Coast and over to the southern Mid-Atlantic.

-Scott

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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