Expires:200412162257;;652478
FPUS51 KBTV 160848
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EST THU DEC 16 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-162257-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
RANDOLPH...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
348 AM EST THU DEC 16 2004

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. NOT
AS COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
AROUND 20. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. MORNING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS ZERO TO 10 BELOW.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
20 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 10 TO 15. CHANCE
OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY. COLDER. A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 20. CHANCE
OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND
5 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 5
TO 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 160905
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EST THU DEC 16 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING AREA OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY SHOULD BE GOVERNED BY
BROAD SW FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING SFC TO MID LVL RIDGE
AXES. THIS FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY FROM
YESTERDAY/S COLD READINGS. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DURING
FIRST PART OF DAY...ESP FROM CHVLY EASTWARD...THEN TRENDING MORE PC
LATER DURING DAY WITH INCREASING MID LVL WAA CLOUDINESS. CLOUDS THEN
THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO
ENCROACH ON N NY ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE COLUMN ALONG BNDRY
IS NARROW...BUT FAIRLY DEEP. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT QG FORCING
AND FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF AREA ARGUES FOR
CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ENDING. CHVLY AND AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT SHOULD SEE ONLY SCT
ACTIVITY...WITH MINOR ACCUM OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS SLV AND NORTHERN
MTN ZONES WHERE SOME UPSLOPE/LAKE ONT ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. MORE
NOTICEABLE WILL BE THE BLUSTERY CONDS AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH FROPA EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS MOST AREAS...EXPECT
TEMPS TO FALL ALL DAY ACROSS N NY...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS VT.

THEN MAINLY CLEAR AND QUITE COLD FRI NT AS SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES OVERHEAD. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS SEVERAL DEGREES AREA WIDE
HERE DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL EFFECTS EXPECTED. AFTERWARDS...MAINLY
PC SAT WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS RETURNING UNDER SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW. THEN TRENDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SAT NT INTO SUN W/A CHC SHSN
MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF FCST AREA AS SHARP/DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY STATES.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. CHC OF LT
SNOW OR SHSN LOOKS REASONABLE SUN NT INTO MON AREA WIDE AS NORTHERLY
FLOW AND AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVE ACROSS AREA. LATEST OPERATIONAL
SOLNS...INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE ALL NOW FAVORING A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...AND A MORE OFFSHORE SOLN INVOF OR
OUTSIDE THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK IN REGARDS TO CYCLOGENESIS AND ASSOC
SFC LOW LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ANY THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS VT/N
NY DURING THESE PERIODS. NONETHELESS...PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS HERE IN REGARDS TO EVOLUTION OF SENSIBLE WX PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING...BEST SEEN IN
925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS...HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.  THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 13Z THIS MORNING...THEN AREA
GETS INTO THE 850 MB WARM SECTOR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED.  THUS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A BETTER PART OF THE
DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL COME LATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY AFTER 04Z...AS
850 MB FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING
AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AS MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN.  WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 20 KNOT
RANGE.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMG
AVIATION...EE







FXUS61 KBTV 151853
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EST WED DEC 15 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST TONIGHT BUT WITH
UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE MOVING IN.  ALONG WITH THIS SOME MID BUT
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN NY AND CROSS VT.
ALSO...OVER A 24 HR PERIOD...850 MB TEMPS WARM FROM A CHILLY -18C AT
KALB TO AROUND -8 TO -2 ACROSS VT AND NORTHERN NY BY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE WARMER AIR UPSTREAM.  AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUDS
AND AN OVERALL WARMING AIRMASS...EXPECT LOWS LATE TONIGHT TO BE
ABOUT/AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING.

THURSDAY EXPECT ANY CLOUDS OVERHEAD TO DEPART EARLY...ONLY TO RETURN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR MANITOBA CA
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION.  THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE...TIED TO A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE...MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DEPART
DURING THE DAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT.  SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS BUT DRY WEATHER.

THE BIG ISSUE WILL BE THE EVOLVING SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  ON SUNDAY A SYSTEM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO AFFECT
NORTHERN NY AND VT...AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER WV.  THE WV
SYSTEM BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY MONDAY AS IT INTENSIFIES INTO
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM.  DPROG/DT OF GFS AND
ENSEMBLE INFO STILL SHOW A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK...SO WILL KEEP AREA UNDER A CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CHANCE OF SNOW SLOWLY DECREASES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR FOR KMSS/KSLK/KBTV OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK RIBBON OF H850 THERMAL ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT AND A H500 VORT MAX WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
NORTH COUNTRY BTWN 00Z AND 06Z. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT ABOUT 2KFT
FOR THE KMSS AND KSLK TERMINALS. NO PCPN INCLUDED...THOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MAY BE AROUND. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S/SW AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS AROUND 12Z THU WITH SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...WASULA




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN



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