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SKIVT-L  December 2004, Week 3

SKIVT-L December 2004, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 15 Dec 2004 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (479 lines)

Expires:200412160000;;630784
FPUS51 KBTV 150859
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST WED DEC 15 2004


VTZ006-008-010-016>018-152400-
EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-
WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...MONTPELIER...RANDOLPH...
RICHFORD...STOWE...UNDERHILL
400 AM EST WED DEC 15 2004

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY...THEN PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 15.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. NOT AS COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. TURNING
COLDER. MORNING HIGHS AROUND 30...THEN TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
THE 20S. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40
PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLEARING. LOWS
5 TO 10 ABOVE.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
15 TO 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 150945
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
445 AM EST WED DEC 15 2004

.SHORT TERM (TDA-FRI)...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WEST OF FA ERLY THIS MRNG WHILE UPR TROF OVHD.  LOW
CLDS LINGERING ACRS PARTS OF NRN FA AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES/SNW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LK CHMPLN WITH NLY FLOW.  AS SFC
RIDGE MOVES INTO FA AFT 12Z AND UPR TROF AXIS SLIDES EWD EXPECT
CLDS TO ERODE THEN INCRG SUNSHINE.  MEANWHILE MID/HI CLDS SPILLING
OVER RIDGE MAY AFFECT W ZNS LTR TDA.  CONTD COLD WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF TEENS.

SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVS E OF RGN TNGT WITH SW FLOW DVLPG.  MODEL RH
FIELDS SUGGEST PD OF BKN/OVC MID/HI CLDS DURG EVNG THEN MOVING OUT.
WL CALL IT PTCLDY.  COLDEST TEMPS TNGT WL BE E OF GREEN MTNS CLOSER
TO SFC RIDGE WHERE SUBZERO READINGS LIKELY...SPCLY NE KINGDOM.
TEMPS LIKELY STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT FROM CHMPLN VLY WWD.

CONTD SW FLOW AHD OF APCHG SHRTWV AND CDFNT ON THU WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE THRU THE 30S.  PTSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THU WITH INCRG CLDS DURG
AFTN ACRS WRN ZONES AS RH INCREASES BUT KEPT IT DRY AS ANY PCPN SHD
RMN N/W OF FA.  STG SHRTWV MOVES EWD ACRS FA LT THU NGT/ERLY FRI
WITH ASSOCD CDFNT RCHG MSS 10-12Z AND LWR CT VLY 16-18Z PER LOW LVL
THKNS FIELDS.  GIVEN GOOD UL QG FORCING WITH SHRTWV...THERE SHOULD
BE A BRIEF PD OF SNOW SHOWERS/PSBL SQUALLS WITH FNT...MAINLY LT THU
NGT/FRI MRNG.  STG LOW LVL DRY ADVECTION BHND FNT WITH DEWPTS
CRASHING SUGGESTS DURATION WILL BE BRF WITH ANY POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE LIMITED.  MODEL 1000-850 MB THICKNESS SHOW STG CAA DURG FRI
SO EXPECT FALLING TEMPS BHND FNT AND INDCTD THIS IN FCST FOR ALL
ZONES XCP SRN VT/CT VLY DUE TO LTR TIMING OF FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NGT-TUE)...
SFC HI BUILDS ACRS FA FRI NGT SO DROPPED POPS AND LWRD TEMPS SVRL
DEGREES IN LINE WITH NEW MEX DATA GIVEN EXPECTATION OF GOOD RAD
COOLING.  FA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SAT SO EXPECT CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS.  REMOVED POPS FOR SAT AND LOWERED TEMPS BASED ON NEW MEX
DATA.  NO CHGS TO FCST FOR SAT NGT-TUE PD.  00Z GFS SHOW HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND DYNAMIC PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR LT SUN-MON TIME FRAME
WITH POTENT DIGGING SHRTWV DVLPG INTO UPR LOW DOWN INTO SE USA WITH
CSTL STORM DVLPG.  CRNTLY THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO
HAVE SGFNT IMPACT ON FA...BUT IF UPR LOW IS FURTHER N IT COULD BE
DIFFERENT STORY.  BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS AREA WIDE OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS AREA. WDLY SCT MVFR CIGS INVOF KBTV DUE
TO LAKE MOISTURE PLUMES...AND NEAR KSLK DUE TO BR THROUGH 12Z WILL
GIVE WAY TO MAINLY SUNNY CONDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING UNDER LT WIND
REGIME. SOME MID LVL CLOUDINESS WILL AFFECT REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
W/FLOW BECOMING LT SOUTHERLY...BUT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR AREA WIDE.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...JMG









FXUS61 KBTV 150923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
423 AM EST WED DEC 15 2004

.SHORT TERM (TDA-FRI)...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WEST OF FA ERLY THIS MRNG WHILE UPR TROF OVHD.  LOW
CLDS LINGERING ACRS PARTS OF NRN FA AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES/SNW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LK CHMPLN WITH NLY FLOW.  AS SFC
RIDGE MOVES INTO FA AFT 12Z AND UPR TROF AXIS SLIDES EWD EXPECT
CLDS TO ERODE THEN INCRG SUNSHINE.  MEANWHILE MID/HI CLDS SPILLING
OVER RIDGE MAY AFFECT W ZNS LTR TDA.  CONTD COLD WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF TEENS.

SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVS E OF RGN TNGT WITH SW FLOW DVLPG.  MODEL RH
FIELDS SUGGEST PD OF BKN/OVC MID/HI CLDS DURG EVNG THEN MOVING OUT.
WL CALL IT PTCLDY.  COLDEST TEMPS TNGT WL BE E OF GREEN MTNS CLOSER
TO SFC RIDGE WHERE SUBZERO READINGS LIKELY...SPCLY NE KINGDOM.
TEMPS LIKELY STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT FROM CHMPLN VLY WWD.

CONTD SW FLOW AHD OF APCHG SHRTWV AND CDFNT ON THU WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE THRU THE 30S.  PTSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THU WITH INCRG CLDS DURG
AFTN ACRS WRN ZONES AS RH INCREASES BUT KEPT IT DRY AS ANY PCPN SHD
RMN N/W OF FA.  STG SHRTWV MOVES EWD ACRS FA LT THU NGT/ERLY FRI
WITH ASSOCD CDFNT RCHG MSS 10-12Z AND LWR CT VLY 16-18Z PER LOW LVL
THKNS FIELDS.  GIVEN GOOD UL QG FORCING WITH SHRTWV...THERE SHOULD
BE A BRIEF PD OF SNOW SHOWERS/PSBL SQUALLS WITH FNT...MAINLY LT THU
NGT/FRI MRNG.  STG LOW LVL DRY ADVECTION BHND FNT WITH DEWPTS
CRASHING SUGGESTS DURATION WILL BE BRF WITH ANY POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE LIMITED.  MODEL 1000-850 MB THICKNESS SHOW STG CAA DURG FRI
SO EXPECT FALLING TEMPS BHND FNT AND INDCTD THIS IN FCST FOR ALL
ZONES XCP SRN VT/CT VLY DUE TO LTR TIMING OF FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NGT-TUE)...
SFC HI BUILDS ACRS FA FRI NGT SO DROPPED POPS AND LWRD TEMPS SVRL
DEGREES IN LINE WITH NEW MEX DATA GIVEN EXPECTATION OF GOOD RAD
COOLING.  FA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SAT SO EXPECT CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS.  REMOVED POPS FOR SAT AND LOWERED TEMPS BASED ON NEW MEX
DATA.  NO CHGS TO FCST FOR SAT NGT-TUE PD.  00Z GFS SHOW HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND DYNAMIC PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR LT SUN-MON TIME FRAME
WITH POTENT DIGGING SHRTWV DVLPG INTO UPR LOW DOWN INTO SE USA WITH
CSTL STORM DVLPG.  CRNTLY THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO
HAVE SGFNT IMPACT ON FA...BUT IF UPR LOW IS FURTHER N IT COULD BE
DIFFERENT STORY.  BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ERLY THIS MRNG...SPCLY IN
CHMPLN VLY WHERE SNOW PERSISTS.  ETA12 SUGGESTS SNOW WL TAPER OFF
AND DECREASE IN CVRG 09-12Z.  FA WL BE UNDER NLY FLOW THRU THE PD.
MSTR PROFILES SHOW FAIR AMT OF LL MSTR PERSISTING THRU THE PD AND IR
STLT LOOP SHOWS LOTS OF CLDS UPSTREAM SO EXPECT BKN-OVC SC TO CONT
WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AFT 12Z.  GUSTY NW WINDS 10-20KTS WL
CONTINUE THRU MCH OF TDA THEN DIMINISH TNGT AS SFC RDG APPROACHES
FROM THE W.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...JMG







FXUS61 KBTV 150317
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2004

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME WITH SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES. WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECAST TO
REMOVE EVENING WORDING. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP A
MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST GOING IN MOST OF THE ZONES WITH A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT...BUT WILL ALSO
MENTION GRADUAL CLEARING BY DAYBREAK. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AS THIS AREA
SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW COVER
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AROUND VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED IN CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT THRU 09Z. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z...BUT WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF MVFR VSBY IN
MIST TIL 14Z. &&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS NE CONUS
WITH WEAK 5H VORT LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ATTM. THIS
FAST MOVING VORT HAS LIMITED MOISTURE...THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SOME
FLURRIES AT BEST AND MTN SW. OTHERWISE...MORE MOISTURE/LIFT IS
MOVING OVER/THROUGH RIDGE ACRS WESTERN CONUS AND WL APPROACH OUR FA
TOWARD END OF THE WEEK.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NW
FLOW CONTINUING ACRS OUR FA. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES WL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT AND WINDS WL DECREASE AND SOME CLRING IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...NW FLOW AND LLVL MOISTURE HAS HELP TO ENHANCE SW ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES TODAY. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
HAS BEEN NOTED.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
FCST PROBLEM WL BE TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH AMOUNT OF CLRING AND
DECREASING WINDS OVER NITE. VIS SAT PICS THIS AFTN SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM...THEREFORE WL CONT TO MENTION MC SKIES TONIGHT.
ALSO...ENHANCING CLOUDS WL BE PERSIST UPSLOPE FLW THRU 06Z AND THE
CHCS FOR SW AND FLURRIES. WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR -20C...ALONG
WITH 85H TEMPS NEAR -18C TONIGHT...FEEL MANY LOCATIONS WL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK. CLOUDS WL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM REACHING NEAR -20F AT PLACES LIKE SLK AND ISLAND POND.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL
TROF SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS RIDGE ACRS CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES TOWARD OUR FA. LLVL FLW CONTS FROM NW THRU 15Z...THEN WINDS WL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SW DIRECTION AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST.
PROGGED 925H TEMPS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH VALUES BTWN -16 AND
-18C...BUT 85H TEMPS ARE 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER. WL MENTION TEMPS
NEAR 20 CPV/SLV AND L20S NEAR VSF ASSOCIATED WITH NW DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. WEDS NIGHT...TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT AS SW FLW INCREASES TEMPS WL WARM OVERNITE. WL MENTION
SOME FLURRIES ESPECIALLY MTN ZNS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAA...SOME
MID LVL MOISTURE...AND SOME 850-500MB Q-VECTOR FORCING WITH 5H VORT.
OTHERWISE...QPF WL BE LIGHT.

THRU-FRIDAY...SW FLOW AND LLVL WAA CONTS THURSDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -1C
AND 925H TEMPS AROUND -2C SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S MOST
LOCATIONS. WL TREND TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE ACRS CPV...ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW...BUT THIS COULD BE OFFSET BY CRNT SNOW BACK.
12Z MODEL RUNS ARE 6 TO 10 HRS QUICKER WITH FRIDAY'S SYSTEM. WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM AND FROPA.
GIVEN QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND LIMITED MOISTURE...FEEL QPF WL BE
LIGHT WITH SNOWFALL GENERALLY BTWN 1-3 INCHES. 85H TEMPS AND
850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST ALL SNOW...BUT GFS SOUNDING DATA
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN ACRS VALLEY LOCATION.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NITE-TUESDAY)...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. DEEP TROUGH WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ALL EYES ON TWO
POSSIBLE COASTAL STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST STORM LOOKS TO
AFFECT NORTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY THOUGH AT THIS TIME BEST DYNAMICS
STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT OUR AREA WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. NEXT STORM LOOKS TO BE EVEN FURTHER EAST OFF
THE COAST AND DOESNT LOOK TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT ALL.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON BOTH OF THESE STORMS AS ANY SHIFT
TO THE WEST WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLE SNOW TO THE AREA. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCATIONS LIKE
KMPV AND KSLK BEING MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY DUE TO CONTINUING UPSLOPE
SNOW EVENT. UPSLOPE SNOWS SHOULD BE DECREASING THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL BRING CIGS AND VSBY BACK UP TO VFR. THEREAFTER SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS
EXPECTED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 141919 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2004

FCST CHALLENGE WL BE TEMPS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS NE CONUS
WITH WEAK 5H VORT LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ATTM. THIS
FAST MOVING VORT HAS LIMITED MOISTURE...THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SOME
FLURRIES AT BEST AND MTN SW. OTHERWISE...MORE MOISTURE/LIFT IS
MOVING OVER/THROUGH RIDGE ACRS WESTERN CONUS AND WL APPROACH OUR FA
TOWARD END OF THE WEEK.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NW
FLOW CONTINUING ACRS OUR FA. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES WL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT AND WINDS WL DECREASE AND SOME CLRING IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...NW FLOW AND LLVL MOISTURE HAS HELP TO ENHANCE SW ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES TODAY. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
HAS BEEN NOTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
FCST PROBLEM WL BE TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH AMOUNT OF CLRING AND
DECREASING WINDS OVER NITE. VIS SAT PICS THIS AFTN SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM...THEREFORE WL CONT TO MENTION MC SKIES TONIGHT.
ALSO...ENHANCING CLOUDS WL BE PERSIST UPSLOPE FLW THRU 06Z AND THE
CHCS FOR SW AND FLURRIES. WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR -20C...ALONG
WITH 85H TEMPS NEAR -18C TONIGHT...FEEL MANY LOCATIONS WL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK. CLOUDS WL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM REACHING NEAR -20F AT PLACES LIKE SLK AND ISLAND POND.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL
TROF SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS RIDGE ACRS CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES TOWARD OUR FA. LLVL FLW CONTS FROM NW THRU 15Z...THEN WINDS WL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SW DIRECTION AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST.
PROGGED 925H TEMPS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH VALUES BTWN -16 AND
-18C...BUT 85H TEMPS ARE 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER. WL MENTION TEMPS
NEAR 20 CPV/SLV AND L20S NEAR VSF ASSOCIATED WITH NW DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. WEDS NIGHT...TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT AS SW FLW INCREASES TEMPS WL WARM OVERNITE. WL MENTION
SOME FLURRIES ESPECIALLY MTN ZNS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAA...SOME
MID LVL MOISTURE...AND SOME 850-500MB Q-VECTOR FORCING WITH 5H VORT.
OTHERWISE...QPF WL BE LIGHT.

THRU-FRIDAY...SW FLOW AND LLVL WAA CONTS THURSDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -1C
AND 925H TEMPS AROUND -2C SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S MOST
LOCATIONS. WL TREND TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE ACRS CPV...ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW...BUT THIS COULD BE OFFSET BY CRNT SNOW BACK.
12Z MODEL RUNS ARE 6 TO 10 HRS QUICKER WITH FRIDAY'S SYSTEM. WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM AND FROPA.
GIVEN QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND LIMITED MOISTURE...FEEL QPF WL BE
LIGHT WITH SNOWFALL GENERALLY BTWN 1-3 INCHES. 85H TEMPS AND
850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST ALL SNOW...BUT GFS SOUNDING DATA
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN ACRS VALLEY LOCATION.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NITE-TUESDAY)...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. DEEP TROUGH WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ALL EYES ON TWO
POSSIBLE COASTAL STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST STORM LOOKS TO
AFFECT NORTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY THOUGH AT THIS TIME BEST DYNAMICS
STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT OUR AREA WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. NEXT STORM LOOKS TO BE EVEN FURTHER EAST OFF
THE COAST AND DOESNT LOOK TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT ALL.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON BOTH OF THESE STORMS AS ANY SHIFT
TO THE WEST WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLE SNOW TO THE AREA. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCATIONS LIKE
KMPV AND KSLK BEING MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY DUE TO CONTINUING UPSLOPE
SNOW EVENT. UPSLOPE SNOWS SHOULD BE DECREASING THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL BRING CIGS AND VSBY BACK UP TO VFR. THEREAFTER SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS
EXPECTED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...LAHIFF







   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN



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May 2019, Week 4
May 2019, Week 3
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April 2019, Week 1
March 2019, Week 5
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January 2019, Week 1
December 2018, Week 5
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December 2018, Week 1
November 2018, Week 5
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October 2018, Week 5
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December 2017, Week 5
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December 2016, Week 5
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December 2015, Week 5
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December 2013, Week 5
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January 2013, Week 1
December 2012, Week 5
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January 2012, Week 1
December 2011, Week 5
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December 2010, Week 5
December 2010, Week 4
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January 2010, Week 5
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December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
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December 2008, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 5
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December 2006, Week 5
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December 2005, Week 5
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