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SKIVT-L  January 2005, Week 3

SKIVT-L January 2005, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 18 Jan 2005 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (531 lines)

Expires:200501190109;;441331
FPUS51 KBTV 181030
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
530 AM EST TUE JAN 18 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-190109-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
530 AM EST TUE JAN 18 2005

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY...

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. BITTERLY COLD
WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 5 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 20 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES 20 TO 29 BELOW.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 15 BELOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD. SNOW LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS. SOUTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT..
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD. A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE TEENS. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND ZERO.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 15 BELOW.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 5 TO 10 ABOVE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 15 TO
20. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND ZERO.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 181108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
607 AM EST TUE JAN 18 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL AROUND THE REGION AT THIS TIME AND
WINDS REMAIN UP...SO WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNINGS
GOING UNTIL NOON TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. ASOS OBSERVATIONS AT KMPV...KSLK AND
EARLIER AT KMVL REPORTING HAZE...BUT IS MORE LIKELY SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW FLAKES THAT THE SENSOR IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME PICKING OUT.
RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTS. HAVE BROKEN UP THE VERMONT AND NEW YORK PORTIONS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSE DIVE...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM
SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STEM THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE TEENS...AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. MUCH COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAY NEED TO PUT UP ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.

WILL KEEP SATURDAY FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
NORTH OF THE REGION. LATEST 06Z RUN OF THE GFS NOW HAS LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH FORECAST AREA
ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SOME SNOW. THIS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
RUN OF THE GFS. GIVEN THIS DIFFERENCE...WILL OPT TO KEEP SATURDAY
FORECAST DRY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
MAINLY VFR COND AT ALL FORECAST SITES...SOME MORNING LOW CLD OVER
AREA...W/ CEILING MVFR AT 3000FT OR LOWER...VSBY LWRED TO 2-3SM -SN
AT KSLK AND KMPV TIL 10Z. NW FLOW OVER ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...10-15KTS...DIMINISING TO LESS THAN 10KTS AFT 23Z-00Z...BECMG
SOUTH AFT 00Z.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TODAY VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON TODAY NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TODAY NYZ028-035.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JN





FXUS61 KBTV 180239 AAB
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
938 PM EST MON JAN 17 2005

.SHORT TERM...
DRYING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT AND THIS IS HELPING TO LIMIT LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.  WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
COMPONENT TO THE WIND...STILL DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME A LIMITING FACTOR LATER
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END.  PLENTY OF CLEARING
TO TAKE PLACE AND WILL EVENTUALLY SEE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.  WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS STILL ON
TRACK AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS QUEBEC AND SHOULD REACH FORECASTED LEVELS OF
BELOW ZERO READINGS.  NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL ENHANCE
WIND CHILL VALUES.  ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY AS DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 440 PM...
.SHORT TERM...
ADDED A THROUGH THIS EVENING PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
OCCURRING ON THE EAST SIDE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOWS
GOING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS.  SNOW IS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT CATEGORICAL IN
NATURE.  REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 355 PM...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THRU
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONITE/TUES. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SEWRD ACRS GRTLKS INTO FA.

THE MAIN WX PROBLEM TON/TUE WILL BE THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ACRS PORTIONS OF NW VT.

LATEST RADAR PICS AND SFC OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SNOW SHWRS
ACRS FA...WITH THE FAVORED AREAS BEING DOWNWIND OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND ACRS THE HIR TRRN. LES BANDS OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN RMN
THE PRIMARY CONCERN. GOOD LLVL INSTABILITY CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH WEAK INVERSION THEN DEVELOPING OVRNGHT. BANDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER DISORGANIZED THIS PM...AND EXPECT THIS TO RMN THE CASE
TONITE AS LLVL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST THAN NORTH...LIMITING
FETCH OVER THE LAKE. SOME ORAGRAPHIC SNOW SHWRS PSBL TONITE AS
WELL...ESPEC ACRS NRN VT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO FA TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER RGN ON
TUES. COMBINATION OF NW WNDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY OR
WARNING CRITERIA RANGE FOR LATER TONITE THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY TUES.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH WARNINGS FOR ADRNDKS AND ST LWR VLY...AND
ADVISORIES FOR REST OF FA.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS ACRS FA DURING TUES...WNDS WL SUBSIDE DURING
PMAND SUNSHINE WILL BECOME PLENTIFUL. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
ZERO ACRS NRN ZONES...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF FA TUES NITE. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY TUES
EVENING...AND THEN LEVEL OFF AND RISE A BIT LATE AT NITE AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEWRLY AND WE SEE AN INCR IN CLOUD COVER.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APRCHS FROM NRN GRTLKS WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. HAVE GONE LIKELY POPS WRN ZONES...AND CHC
EAST. ARCTIC FRONT THEN APRCHS LATER WED NITE. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH ETA ABOUT 6 HRS
QUICKER THAN GFS. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT THRU NRN NY DURING EARLY MORNING HRS BUT NOT THRU VERMONT
UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURS. SNOW SHWRS AND PSBL SQUALLS WITH THIS FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THRU MONDAY)...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN ACRS
CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. THIS PLACES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED FCST PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS.
FIRST SYSTEM MOVES ACRS OUR FA EARLY THURSDAY WITH CHC POPS AND
STRONG LLVL CAA. FEEL SQUALLS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT GIVEN FG
FIELDS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
PRECIP WL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN/NITE...BEFORE LLVL BECMG TOO
DRY. ALSO...STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND ENSEMBLE 85H TEMPS BTWN
-26C AND -30C WOULD SUPPORT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ONCE AGAIN.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPS CONT FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BTWN -5F AND -10F
ACRS MOST OF FA AND NORTHERLY SFC FLOW CONTINUING. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CONTS FOR SATURDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED...WL
CONT TO CUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES AND TREND TOWARD
COOLER ENSEMBLE NUMBERS. WL CONT TO WATCH S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
JET FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE SE
CONUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN TROF AXIS/POSITION AND LIMITED RIDGING ACRS
WESTERN ATLANTIC FEEL SYSTEM WL PASS WELL SOUTH OF FA.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
SHORT TERM PROBLEM IS MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LES BAND OFF
CHAMPLAIN IMPACTING BTV TAF. CRNT OBS AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW BAND
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS LLVL WIND FIELD BECMGS MORE WESTERLY. WL
CONT TO MENTION -SW IN TAF AT BTV THRU 22Z ASSOCIATED WITH LES BAND
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONVERGENCE ZN WITH NORTHERLY SFC FLW.
OTHERWISE...DEPTH OF LLVL MOISTURE DECREASES BY 00Z AND EXPECT
SCT-BKN030-040 AT BTV. CRNT SAT PIC SHOWS CLRING LINE NOW ENTERING
SLV AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AT MSS BY 20Z AND BY 22Z AT SLK.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU 18Z TUE AS HIGH PRES PROVIDES FA
WITH COLD/DRY AIRMASS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON ON
     TUESDAY NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY
     NYZ028-035.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TABER






FXUS61 KBTV 172140 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
440 PM EST MON JAN 17 2005

.SHORT TERM...
ADDED A THROUGH THIS EVENING PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
OCCURRING ON THE EAST SIDE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOWS
GOING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS.  SNOW IS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT CATEGORICAL IN
NATURE.  REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 355 PM...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THRU
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONITE/TUES. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SEWRD ACRS GRTLKS INTO FA.

THE MAIN WX PROBLEM TON/TUE WILL BE THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ACRS PORTIONS OF NW VT.

LATEST RADAR PICS AND SFC OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SNOW SHWRS
ACRS FA...WITH THE FAVORED AREAS BEING DOWNWIND OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND ACRS THE HIR TRRN. LES BANDS OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN RMN
THE PRIMARY CONCERN. GOOD LLVL INSTABILITY CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH WEAK INVERSION THEN DEVELOPING OVRNGHT. BANDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER DISORGANIZED THIS PM...AND EXPECT THIS TO RMN THE CASE
TONITE AS LLVL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST THAN NORTH...LIMITING
FETCH OVER THE LAKE. SOME ORAGRAPHIC SNOW SHWRS PSBL TONITE AS
WELL...ESPEC ACRS NRN VT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO FA TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER RGN ON
TUES. COMBINATION OF NW WNDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY OR
WARNING CRITERIA RANGE FOR LATER TONITE THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY TUES.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH WARNINGS FOR ADRNDKS AND ST LWR VLY...AND
ADVISORIES FOR REST OF FA.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS ACRS FA DURING TUES...WNDS WL SUBSIDE DURING
PMAND SUNSHINE WILL BECOME PLENTIFUL. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
ZERO ACRS NRN ZONES...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF FA TUES NITE. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY TUES
EVENING...AND THEN LEVEL OFF AND RISE A BIT LATE AT NITE AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEWRLY AND WE SEE AN INCR IN CLOUD COVER.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APRCHS FROM NRN GRTLKS WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. HAVE GONE LIKELY POPS WRN ZONES...AND CHC
EAST. ARCTIC FRONT THEN APRCHS LATER WED NITE. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH ETA ABOUT 6 HRS
QUICKER THAN GFS. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT THRU NRN NY DURING EARLY MORNING HRS BUT NOT THRU VERMONT
UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURS. SNOW SHWRS AND PSBL SQUALLS WITH THIS FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THRU MONDAY)...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN ACRS
CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. THIS PLACES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED FCST PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS.
FIRST SYSTEM MOVES ACRS OUR FA EARLY THURSDAY WITH CHC POPS AND
STRONG LLVL CAA. FEEL SQUALLS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT GIVEN FG
FIELDS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
PRECIP WL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN/NITE...BEFORE LLVL BECMG TOO
DRY. ALSO...STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND ENSEMBLE 85H TEMPS BTWN
-26C AND -30C WOULD SUPPORT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ONCE AGAIN.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPS CONT FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BTWN -5F AND -10F
ACRS MOST OF FA AND NORTHERLY SFC FLOW CONTINUING. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CONTS FOR SATURDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED...WL
CONT TO CUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES AND TREND TOWARD
COOLER ENSEMBLE NUMBERS. WL CONT TO WATCH S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
JET FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE SE
CONUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN TROF AXIS/POSITION AND LIMITED RIDGING ACRS
WESTERN ATLANTIC FEEL SYSTEM WL PASS WELL SOUTH OF FA.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
SHORT TERM PROBLEM IS MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LES BAND OFF
CHAMPLAIN IMPACTING BTV TAF. CRNT OBS AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW BAND
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS LLVL WIND FIELD BECMGS MORE WESTERLY. WL
CONT TO MENTION -SW IN TAF AT BTV THRU 22Z ASSOCIATED WITH LES BAND
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONVERGENCE ZN WITH NORTHERLY SFC FLW.
OTHERWISE...DEPTH OF LLVL MOISTURE DECREASES BY 00Z AND EXPECT
SCT-BKN030-040 AT BTV. CRNT SAT PIC SHOWS CLRING LINE NOW ENTERING
SLV AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AT MSS BY 20Z AND BY 22Z AT SLK.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU 18Z TUE AS HIGH PRES PROVIDES FA
WITH COLD/DRY AIRMASS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON ON
     TUESDAY NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY
     NYZ028-035.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TABER






FXUS61 KBTV 172102
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EST MON JAN 17 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THRU
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONITE/TUES. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SEWRD ACRS GRTLKS INTO FA.

THE MAIN WX PROBLEM TON/TUE WILL BE THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ACRS PORTIONS OF NW VT.

LATEST RADAR PICS AND SFC OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SNOW SHWRS
ACRS FA...WITH THE FAVORED AREAS BEING DOWNWIND OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND ACRS THE HIR TRRN. LES BANDS OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN RMN
THE PRIMARY CONCERN. GOOD LLVL INSTABILITY CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH WEAK INVERSION THEN DEVELOPING OVRNGHT. BANDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER DISORGANIZED THIS PM...AND EXPECT THIS TO RMN THE CASE
TONITE AS LLVL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST THAN NORTH...LIMITING
FETCH OVER THE LAKE. SOME ORAGRAPHIC SNOW SHWRS PSBL TONITE AS
WELL...ESPEC ACRS NRN VT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO FA TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER RGN ON
TUES. COMBINATION OF NW WNDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY OR
WARNING CRITERIA RANGE FOR LATER TONITE THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY TUES.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH WARNINGS FOR ADRNDKS AND ST LWR VLY...AND
ADVISORIES FOR REST OF FA.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS ACRS FA DURING TUES...WNDS WL SUBSIDE DURING
PMAND SUNSHINE WILL BECOME PLENTIFUL. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
ZERO ACRS NRN ZONES...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF FA TUES NITE. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY TUES
EVENING...AND THEN LEVEL OFF AND RISE A BIT LATE AT NITE AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEWRLY AND WE SEE AN INCR IN CLOUD COVER.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APRCHS FROM NRN GRTLKS WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. HAVE GONE LIKELY POPS WRN ZONES...AND CHC
EAST. ARCTIC FRONT THEN APRCHS LATER WED NITE. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH ETA ABOUT 6 HRS
QUICKER THAN GFS. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT THRU NRN NY DURING EARLY MORNING HRS BUT NOT THRU VERMONT
UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURS. SNOW SHWRS AND PSBL SQUALLS WITH THIS FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THRU MONDAY)...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN ACRS
CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. THIS PLACES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED FCST PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS.
FIRST SYSTEM MOVES ACRS OUR FA EARLY THURSDAY WITH CHC POPS AND
STRONG LLVL CAA. FEEL SQUALLS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT GIVEN FG
FIELDS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
PRECIP WL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN/NITE...BEFORE LLVL BECMG TOO
DRY. ALSO...STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND ENSEMBLE 85H TEMPS BTWN
-26C AND -30C WOULD SUPPORT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ONCE AGAIN.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPS CONT FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BTWN -5F AND -10F
ACRS MOST OF FA AND NORTHERLY SFC FLOW CONTINUING. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CONTS FOR SATURDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED...WL
CONT TO CUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES AND TREND TOWARD
COOLER ENSEMBLE NUMBERS. WL CONT TO WATCH S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
JET FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE SE
CONUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN TROF AXIS/POSITION AND LIMITED RIDGING ACRS
WESTERN ATLANTIC FEEL SYSTEM WL PASS WELL SOUTH OF FA.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
SHORT TERM PROBLEM IS MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LES BAND OFF
CHAMPLAIN IMPACTING BTV TAF. CRNT OBS AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW BAND
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS LLVL WIND FIELD BECMGS MORE WESTERLY. WL
CONT TO MENTION -SW IN TAF AT BTV THRU 22Z ASSOCIATED WITH LES BAND
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONVERGENCE ZN WITH NORTHERLY SFC FLW.
OTHERWISE...DEPTH OF LLVL MOISTURE DECREASES BY 00Z AND EXPECT
SCT-BKN030-040 AT BTV. CRNT SAT PIC SHOWS CLRING LINE NOW ENTERING
SLV AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AT MSS BY 20Z AND BY 22Z AT SLK.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU 18Z TUE AS HIGH PRES PROVIDES FA
WITH COLD/DRY AIRMASS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON ON
     TUESDAY NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY
     NYZ028-035.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TABER







   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
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August 2006, Week 1
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