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SKIVT-L  January 2005, Week 4

SKIVT-L January 2005, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 22 Jan 2005 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (573 lines)

Expires:200501222309;;533537
FPUS51 KBTV 220859
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2005


VTZ005>007-017-222309-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...
UNDERHILL
400 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...

.TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON. BITTERLY COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 ABOVE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...NOT AS COLD WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO
4 INCHES. LOWS AROUND ZERO. NORTH  WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
BLUSTERY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING. BITTERLY COLD. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATS AROUND ZERO.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
AROUND 10 BELOW. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60
PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLEARING. BITTERLY COLD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 ABOVE. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 20. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD. A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE.
CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD. A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 30.
CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
15 TO 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 220921 CCA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2005

...CORRECTED FOR ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS...

FCST CHALLENGE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS.

.SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTS ACRS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED
STATES WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONG S/W'S OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS TWO DISTINCT S/W'S WITH ONE
ACRS SOUTHERN IOWA AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHERN MN ATTM...THIS ONE WL
HELP TO DIG MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...MODELS
INITIALIZED VERY WELL WITH THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED 25H DUAL
JET STRUCTURE. FEEL 150KT JET ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND S/W OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS WL HELP DIG TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
MID ATLANTIC STATE TONIGHT...AS FIRST 5H VORT EJECTS ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC/SNE TODAY/THIS EVENING. NOTE...WATER VAPOR ATTM SHOWS
LIMITED MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM AS CONFLUENT
FLOW ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES IS LIMITING THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS WL CHANGE AS SYSTEM APPROACHES EASTERN
SEABOARD.

SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1032MB HIGH PRES ACRS OUR NORTHERN FA WITH WEAK
SFC LOW OVER EASTERN KY ATTM. VERY COLD TEMPS CONT WITH MANY PLACES
BTWN -10 AND -25F THIS MORNING AND SFC DWPTS BTWN -20 AND -30F. IT
WL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP THIS AFTN/EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SFC OBS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INDICATE 20:1 TO
30:1 SNOW RATIO WITH UPCOMING SYSTEM BASED ON QPF FOR ASOS AND
SNINCR. FEEL OUR RATIO FOR UPCOMING SYSTEM WL BE NEAR 30:1...WHICH
WL LEAD TO A BIG FLUFF FACTOR.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
COLD/DRY SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY AS
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE...5H TROF CONTS TO EVOLVE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS SEVERAL POTENT 5H VORTS ROTATE AROUND TROF
BASE. FIRST S/W EJECTS FROM TROF BASE AND MOVES ACRS SNE BY THIS
EVENING. THE SECOND VORT AND ASSOCIATED 25H JET WL HELP DEEPEN TROF
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING AND ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES
JUST OFF THE NJ COASTLINE. MODELS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF ULVL FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SFC
REFLECTION. THE ETA CONTS TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH LOW TRACKING
FROM CENTRAL NJ AT 00Z SUN TO JUST NORTH OF THE BENCHMARK BY 12Z
SUNDAY...MEANWHILE THE GFS TAKES THE LOW FROM CENTRAL VA AT 00Z SUN
TO JUST SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK BY 12Z SUNDAY. ALSO...THE GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH AND DEEPER WITH 7H/5H LOWS...BUT CONTS TO TREND TOWARD
THE ETA SOLUTION. GIVEN...CRNT WATER VAPOR TRENDS AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER INITIALIZATION WL TREND OUR FA TOWARD THE ETA MODEL.

GIVEN...STRONG 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SEVERAL AREAS OF PVA AND A BAND OF STRONG 7H FG FORCING THAT MOVES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS...WL PROVIDE
SOUTHERN FA WITH WARNING CRITERIA SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT WL BE DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE WITH
GOOD 25H ULVL DIVERGENCE ACRS OUR FA AND PLENTY OF MID MOISTURE.
CROSS-SECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACRS OUR FA SHOWS AREA OF VERY
STRONG 7H FG...AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV...PLENTY OF OMEGA NEAR 7H...AND
LOTS OF MOISTURE THROUGH 5H...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE A BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW ACRS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT BTWN 00Z SUN TO 06Z SUN.
BELIEVE...SNOWFALL RATES WL BE 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY
ACRS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. IF MODELS CONT TO TREND NORTH
THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW COULD SHIFT INTO CENTRAL VT...BUT WL CONT
TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL DATA FOR THIS TREND. ALSO...HELPING TO
ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACRS OUR FA WL BE THE FLUFF FACTOR...WITH SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 30 TO 1. BUFKIT CROSS SECTION SHOWS FAVORABLE SNOW
GROWTH...IN AREA OF HIGH RH...AND CROSSING THE MAX OMEGA
FIELD...WHICH WL HELP IN FLAKE SIZE.

GIVEN ABOVE THINKING WL ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES AND MENTION 8-14 INCHES. FOR THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES WL ISSUE WARNING AND MENTION 6-10 INCHES WITH AN ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH FOR PARTS OF THE DACKS AND MOST OF CENTRAL VT
INCLUDING CHITTENDEN COUNTY VT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTN.

SUNDAY NITE INTO MONDAY MID/UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA AS
SFC LOW TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM AND WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -16C EXPECT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW ACRS THE MTNS ZNS. ALSO...MAYBE SOME FLURRIES OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN WITH NORTHERLY LLVL FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU 18Z...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. HIGH CLDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING FA EARLY TDY...WITH MID
DECK OF AC ARRIVING BTWN 13Z-16Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS
PM...WITH SNOW EXPECTRED TO DVLP BTWN 19Z-21Z. CIGS AND VSBYS THEN
QUICKLY LOWERING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY
FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY FOR VTZ005-006-007-017.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY
FOR NYZ034-035.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY FOR NYZ029-030-031.
&&

$$

SHORT...TABER
AVIATION...RJS











FXUS61 KBTV 220749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
250 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2005

FCST CHALLENGE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS.

.SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTS ACRS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED
STATES WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONG S/W'S OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS TWO DISTINCT S/W'S WITH ONE
ACRS SOUTHERN IOWA AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHERN MN ATTM...THIS ONE WL
HELP TO DIG MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...MODELS
INITIALIZED VERY WELL WITH THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED 25H DUAL
JET STRUCTURE. FEEL 150KT JET ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND S/W OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS WL HELP DIG TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
MID ATLANTIC STATE TONIGHT...AS FIRST 5H VORT EJECTS ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC/SNE TODAY/THIS EVENING. NOTE...WATER VAPOR ATTM SHOWS
LIMITED MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM AS CONFLUENT
FLOW ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES IS LIMITING THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS WL CHANGE AS SYSTEM APPROACHES EASTERN
SEABOARD.

SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1032MB HIGH PRES ACRS OUR NORTHERN FA WITH WEAK
SFC LOW OVER EASTERN KY ATTM. VERY COLD TEMPS CONT WITH MANY PLACES
BTWN -10 AND -25F THIS MORNING AND SFC DWPTS BTWN -20 AND -30F. IT
WL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP THIS AFTN/EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SFC OBS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INDICATE 20:1 TO
30:1 SNOW RATIO WITH UPCOMING SYSTEM BASED ON QPF FOR ASOS AND
SNINCR. FEEL OUR RATIO FOR UPCOMING SYSTEM WL BE NEAR 30:1...WHICH
WL LEAD TO A BIG FLUFF FACTOR.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
COLD/DRY SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY AS
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE...5H TROF CONTS TO EVOLVE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS SEVERAL POTENT 5H VORTS ROTATE AROUND TROF
BASE. FIRST S/W EJECTS FROM TROF BASE AND MOVES ACRS SNE BY THIS
EVENING. THE SECOND VORT AND ASSOCIATED 25H JET WL HELP DEEPEN TROF
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING AND ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES
JUST OFF THE NJ COASTLINE. MODELS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF ULVL FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SFC
REFLECTION. THE ETA CONTS TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH LOW TRACKING
FROM CENTRAL NJ AT 00Z SUN TO JUST NORTH OF THE BENCHMARK BY 12Z
SUNDAY...MEANWHILE THE GFS TAKES THE LOW FROM CENTRAL VA AT 00Z SUN
TO JUST SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK BY 12Z SUNDAY. ALSO...THE GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH AND DEEPER WITH 7H/5H LOWS...BUT CONTS TO TREND TOWARD
THE ETA SOLUTION. GIVEN...CRNT WATER VAPOR TRENDS AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER INITIALIZATION WL TREND OUR FA TOWARD THE ETA MODEL.

GIVEN...STRONG 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SEVERAL AREAS OF PVA AND A BAND OF STRONG 7H FG FORCING THAT MOVES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS...WL PROVIDE
SOUTHERN FA WITH WARNING CRITERIA SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT WL BE DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE WITH
GOOD 25H ULVL DIVERGENCE ACRS OUR FA AND PLENTY OF MID MOISTURE.
CROSS-SECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACRS OUR FA SHOWS AREA OF VERY
STRONG 7H FG...AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV...PLENTY OF OMEGA NEAR 7H...AND
LOTS OF MOISTURE THROUGH 5H...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE A BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW ACRS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT BTWN 00Z SUN TO 06Z SUN.
BELIEVE...SNOWFALL RATES WL BE 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY
ACRS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. IF MODELS CONT TO TREND NORTH
THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW COULD SHIFT INTO CENTRAL VT...BUT WL CONT
TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL DATA FOR THIS TREND. ALSO...HELPING TO
ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACRS OUR FA WL BE THE FLUFF FACTOR...WITH SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 30 TO 1. BUFKIT CROSS SECTION SHOWS FAVORABLE SNOW
GROWTH...IN AREA OF HIGH RH...AND CROSSING THE MAX OMEGA
FIELD...WHICH WL HELP IN FLAKE SIZE.

GIVEN ABOVE THINKING WL ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES AND MENTION 8-14 INCHES. FOR THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES WL ISSUE WARNING AND MENTION 6-10 INCHES WITH AN ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH FOR PARTS OF THE DACKS AND MOST OF CENTRAL VT
INCLUDING CHITTENDEN COUNTY VT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTN.

SUNDAY NITE INTO MONDAY MID/UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA AS
SFC LOW TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM AND WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -16C EXPECT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW ACRS THE MTNS ZNS. ALSO...MAYBE SOME FLURRIES OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN WITH NORTHERLY LLVL FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU 18Z...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. HIGH CLDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING FA EARLY TDY...WITH MID
DECK OF AC ARRIVING BTWN 13Z-16Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS
PM...WITH SNOW EXPECTRED TO DVLP BTWN 19Z-21Z. CIGS AND VSBYS THEN
QUICKLY LOWERING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY
FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY FOR VTZ005-006-007.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY
FOR NYZ034-035.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY FOR NYZ029-030-031.
&&

$$

SHORT...TABER
AVIATION...RJS









FXUS61 KBTV 220359 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1059 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2005

.SHORT TERM...
OVERALL GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED
AT THE MOMENT.  VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXIST OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA AND WILL EASILY REACH FORECAST LOWS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT...WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/VERY LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  QUESTION WILL BE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
AS NEW ETA SHOWING SOLID AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 700 MB TO SET
UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT.  PLUS DEFORMATION ZONES TO EXIST OVER
THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING TO KEEP SOME SNOW GOING.  ALL OF THIS
SUGGEST AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN
CURRENTLY IS FORECAST.  LOTS OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME HOWEVER AND
WITHOUT EXAMINATION OF GFS...NOT WILLING TO JUMP INTO
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.  HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAY BE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  STILL LOOKING LIKE BRUNT
OF HEAVIEST SNOWS/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

EVENSON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 331 PM...
COORD WITH ALY...THANX FOR THE CALL. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS
PT FOR ANY WEEKEND SN THIS FAR NORTH.

.SYNOPSIS...
HI PRESS TO BUILD DOWN ACRS THE FA TONITE. STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON SAT...THEN TO THE SOUTH OF SRN NEW ENG ON SAT
NITE. ANOTHER HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON SUN AND SUN
NITE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SAT AND THE FA ON
SAT NITE.

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUN NITE)...
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA FOR MUCH OF TONITE AND ON SAT NITE
THRU SUN NITE...WITH WK WAA ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA LATE ON SUN NITE. BEST LOW-LVL FGEN AND MSTR
ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOW-LVL MSTR TO RETURN ACRS THE FA ON SAT AFTERNOON AND MUCH
OF SAT NITE...WITH SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ACRS NY STATE LATE ON SUN NITE.
SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO START TO AFFECT THE ST LAW VLY BY LATE TONITE
AND THE ENTIRE FA ON SAT AND EARLY ON SAT NITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO
AFFECT THE FA LATE ON SUN NITE. NAM/GFS/NGM SHOW PW VALUES OF BLO
0.2" ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. 12Z NAM/GFS/NGM
QPF ACRS THE FA THRU 12Z SUN TO BE AOB 0.1". WWE SN GRAPHICS SHOW AOB
AN INCH ACRS THE FA ON DAYS 1 AND 3...AND AOB 2" ON DAY 2.

WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF EARLY THIS EVENING ACRS THE FA...WILL
LET THE GOING WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPIRE WITH THIS PACKAGE. LATEST
NAM BUFR DATA SHOWS THE CONTINUING POTNL FOR LK EFFECT CLDS OFF LK
CHAMP INTO TONITE. SOME MORE CLDS TO START TO IMPACT THE WRN FA BY
LATER TONITE...THEN CLDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA ON SAT.
THERE/S STILL THE OUTSIDE CHC FOR SOME -SN BEFORE EVENING ON SAT...SO
WILL CONT SOME LOW CHC POPS FOR THEN. WILL CONT TO CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS (LIKELY FOR NOW) ACRS SRN VT ON SAT NITE...WHERE AOB ADVISORY
CRITERIA (4") SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR. DRY WX...WITH A DECREASE IN CLDS
DURING THE DAY ON SUN AND MORE CLDS RETURNING BY LATER ON SUN NITE...
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
AROUND 4 PM.

MURRAY

.LONG TERM (MON ONWARD)...
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL OCCUR BY
MIDWEEK. ANY STORMS WILL BE WEAK AND NOT PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY MIX IN WITH SHSN LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AGAIN.

AFTER THE BIG STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES TOWARD
NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK
CLIPPER MOVING SEWRD FROM THE NRN LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. CHANNELED
VORTICITY MAY PRODUCE A NARROW STRIPE OF STRONG VERTICAL MOTION
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF US...BUT SFC MSTR CNVGC AND OVRRNG ARE
WEAKENING...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT MONDAY
EVENING.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRYING OUT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
OVRRNG AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT...AS MILDER
WEATHER ARRIVES WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST MODELS BECOME INCONSISTENT ON ANY
ADDITIONAL S/WVS THAT MAY SLOW AND RE-DEEPEN THE LONG WAVE TROF ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
SEEMS THE FORECAST OF LEAST REGRET AT THIS TIME.

REB

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT WILL
IMPACT AVIATION. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

CTL

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$







FXUS61 KBTV 212031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2005

COORD WITH ALY...THANX FOR THE CALL. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS
PT FOR ANY WEEKEND SN THIS FAR NORTH.

.SYNOPSIS...
HI PRESS TO BUILD DOWN ACRS THE FA TONITE. STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON SAT...THEN TO THE SOUTH OF SRN NEW ENG ON SAT
NITE. ANOTHER HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON SUN AND SUN
NITE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SAT AND THE FA ON
SAT NITE.

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUN NITE)...
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA FOR MUCH OF TONITE AND ON SAT NITE
THRU SUN NITE...WITH WK WAA ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA LATE ON SUN NITE. BEST LOW-LVL FGEN AND MSTR
ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOW-LVL MSTR TO RETURN ACRS THE FA ON SAT AFTERNOON AND MUCH
OF SAT NITE...WITH SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ACRS NY STATE LATE ON SUN NITE.
SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO START TO AFFECT THE ST LAW VLY BY LATE TONITE
AND THE ENTIRE FA ON SAT AND EARLY ON SAT NITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO
AFFECT THE FA LATE ON SUN NITE. NAM/GFS/NGM SHOW PW VALUES OF BLO
0.2" ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. 12Z NAM/GFS/NGM
QPF ACRS THE FA THRU 12Z SUN TO BE AOB 0.1". WWE SN GRAPHICS SHOW AOB
AN INCH ACRS THE FA ON DAYS 1 AND 3...AND AOB 2" ON DAY 2.

WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF EARLY THIS EVENING ACRS THE FA...WILL
LET THE GOING WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPIRE WITH THIS PACKAGE. LATEST
NAM BUFR DATA SHOWS THE CONTINUING POTNL FOR LK EFFECT CLDS OFF LK
CHAMP INTO TONITE. SOME MORE CLDS TO START TO IMPACT THE WRN FA BY
LATER TONITE...THEN CLDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA ON SAT.
THERE/S STILL THE OUTSIDE CHC FOR SOME -SN BEFORE EVENING ON SAT...SO
WILL CONT SOME LOW CHC POPS FOR THEN. WILL CONT TO CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS (LIKELY FOR NOW) ACRS SRN VT ON SAT NITE...WHERE AOB ADVISORY
CRITERIA (4") SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR. DRY WX...WITH A DECREASE IN CLDS
DURING THE DAY ON SUN AND MORE CLDS RETURNING BY LATER ON SUN NITE...
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
AROUND 4 PM.

MURRAY

.LONG TERM (MON ONWARD)...
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL OCCUR BY
MIDWEEK. ANY STORMS WILL BE WEAK AND NOT PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY MIX IN WITH SHSN LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AGAIN.

AFTER THE BIG STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES TOWARD
NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK
CLIPPER MOVING SEWRD FROM THE NRN LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. CHANNELED
VORTICITY MAY PRODUCE A NARROW STRIPE OF STRONG VERTICAL MOTION
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF US...BUT SFC MSTR CNVGC AND OVRRNG ARE
WEAKENING...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT MONDAY
EVENING.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRYING OUT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
OVRRNG AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT...AS MILDER
WEATHER ARRIVES WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST MODELS BECOME INCONSISTENT ON ANY
ADDITIONAL S/WVS THAT MAY SLOW AND RE-DEEPEN THE LONG WAVE TROF ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
SEEMS THE FORECAST OF LEAST REGRET AT THIS TIME.

REB

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT WILL
IMPACT AVIATION. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

CTL

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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