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SKIVT-L  March 2005, Week 2

SKIVT-L March 2005, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 14 Mar 2005 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (243 lines)

Expires:200503142300;;685118
FPUS51 KBTV 140851
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST MON MAR 14 2005


VTZ003-004-006-007-016-142300-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD
352 AM EST MON MAR 14 2005

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MID
MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE. HIGHS
AROUND 30. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION
UP TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 20. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE
OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION
AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 20. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 15.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 140945
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
445 AM EST MON MAR 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
GREENLAND BLOCK WL KEEP ELONGATED UPR TROF ACRS RGN THRU MID WEEK
AS N ATLANTIC UPR LOW FORCED TO RETROGRADE TOWARD RGN.  THIS WL
RESULT IN LOTS OF CLDS AND PERSISTENT THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS THRU
MID WEEK (SPCLY N/NE VT) AS MSTR BACKS IN ACRS RGN.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TDA-WED)...
KCXX SHOWING SOME INSTABY SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW ACRS RGN.  MSTR
FCST TO DECREASE THRU THE MORNING SO MENTIONED A LOW POP THRU MID
MORNING FOR N ZNS...OTRW PTSUNNY.  HWVR...DEEPER MSTR OVER
MARITIMES ASSOCD WITH WAA IN NLY FLOW BACKING TOWARD FA AND EXPECT
CLDS AND CHC SNW SHOWERS TO ARRIVE ACRS FAR N ZNS LT TDA.

MSTR BACKS IN ACRS FA TNGT WITH NLY FLOW WAA LIKELY BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO MAINLY N ZONES.  BEST CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACRS N/NE VT
WHERE AXIS OF BEST MSTR/QG FORCING AND INDCTD LKLY POPS IN THIS RGN
WITH MINOR ACCUM.

DEEPER MSTR AND MODEST QG FORCING WL BE IN PLC ACRS MCH OF FA TUE
THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NE DURG TUE NGT.  AXIS OF BEST MSTR AND LIFT
WL REMAIN LOCKED IN ACRS N/NE VT.  HIEST POPS TUE/TUE NGT ACRS N/NE
VT WITH POPS DECREASING S AND W.  CONTD TO DECREASE POPS ON WED BUT
STILL CHC SNOW SHOWERS N ZONES WITH ELONGATED VORT AXIS AND MSTR
AXIS ACRS RGN.

MAV/MET TEMPS CLOSE AND FOLWD.
&&

.LONG TERM (WED NGT-SUN)...
LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GGEM KEEP SRN STREAM SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF RGN
THU/FRI SO DROPPED POPS FROM FCST.  NO OTHER CHGS.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
VFR-MVFR COND ALL SITES THRU PERIOD. SCT-BKN LOW CLD DECK BLW 3KFT.
SOME FOG W/ VSBY AT OR BLW 3SM THRU 12Z-14Z. LIGHT -SW/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFT 02Z. WINDS NW THRU PERIOD BECMG LIGHT 10KTS OR
LESS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...JN





FXUS61 KBTV 131936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
236 PM EST SUN MAR 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...DRY ADIABATIC TO 700 MB...AND
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TAKE THIS ACTIVITY INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.  WILL MENTION
A THROUGH THIS EVENING PERIOD AND MENTION SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.  SINCE CONVECTION
IS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY 700 PM.  AIR
MASS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE LAST NIGHT...SO WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP.

ON MONDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL GAVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND MORE OF THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON.  ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS STILL OVER THE AREA...BUT
WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...AND VERTICAL DEPTH OF LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS
GREAT AS SUNDAY.  SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S READINGS.

UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  THIS
COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
VERMONT ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION.  DESPITE
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
READINGS ON MONDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SHUTS OFF ON WEDNESDAY AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.  FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHWEST BUT WINDS MAY NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION.  IN ADDITION...
VERTICAL EXTENT OF MOISTURE MAY ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR.  SO AT
THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTS TO SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS NE CONUS
WITH DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU FRIDAY. SFC LOW
PRES WL PASS WELL SOUTH OF FA ON THURS...BUT INVERTED TROF AND 5H
VORT...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF 7H MOISTURE WL MENTION CHC POPS LATE
THURS INTO FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPS STILL SUPPORT HIGHS 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE STD. OTHERWISE...RIDGE ACRS
CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/NE ON SATURDAY AS
S/W ENERGY DIGS TROF ACRS THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC
RIDGE AXIS ACRS FA SHOULD PROVIDE CWA WITH SOME CLRING LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT FA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY..BUT GIVEN TIME PERIOD AND UNCERTAINTY WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM
AND MENTION TEMPS 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR -10C.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
CYCLONIC SFC AND ULVL FLOW CONTS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W'S MOVING
THRU FA THIS AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT -SW...ESPECIALLY ACRS OUR MTN
ZNS. WL MENTION -SW IN SLK TAF...BUT KEEP REST OF TAF SITES DRY THIS
AFTN. NEXT QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FG TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CPV AND POINTS
EASTWARD...THEREFORE WL MENTION 1 BR AT BTV AND 1/2SM IN FZFG AT
MPV. FEEL THE COMBINATION OF SOME MELTING SNOW...ADDING TO LLVL
MOISTURE...AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT AS LLVL TEMP INVERSION DEVELOPS FG
WL INCREASE. OTHERWISE...WL MENTION -SW AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPSLOPE FLW AND LEFTOVER LES.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.............EVENSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION.....TABER






   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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