Expires:200505182300;;168754
FPUS51 KBTV 180808
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-182300-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
408 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
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FXUS61 KBTV 180915
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
514 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
THURSDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY
UP TO 750 MB...SO WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...AS COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT MOVES SOUTH
FROM QUEBEC TODAY COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODEL SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO MOVE SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 700 MB ON
THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...MAINLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

MODELS SHOW MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...AS THE 00Z
NAM MODEL SHOWS A SECOND CLOSED UPPER LOW TO FORM OVER QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...WHILE THE PRIMARY CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA...IN A SORT OF DUMBBELL AFFECT. THIS SECOND CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.  00Z NAM MODEL
SUGGESTS WETTER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS A
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. WILL STAY WITH THE GFS MODEL
WHICH SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAIN STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS WEEKEND...AND THUS A DRY FORECAST.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE REJECTED THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION AND HAVE
GONE WITH GFS MODEL IN THIS TIME RANGE WHICH SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
VFR COND THRU 16Z AT KMSS-KSLK AND THRU 18Z AT KBTV-KMPV. SKY COND
ABV 3KFT W/ MID CLD DECK(080-100) AND SCAT LOW CLDS(040-050)...AFT
16Z-18Z LOW CLD DECK WORKS SE OVER CWA THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
VSBY P6SM THRU MUCH OF PERIOD EXCEPT REDUCED BY LIGHT
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TO POSSIBLY 5SM AT TIMES. WINDS LIGHT/VAR THRU
12Z...BECMG NNW LESS THAN 10KTS THRU 00Z...BECMG LIGHT/VAR AFT.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JN






FXUS61 KBTV 180153 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
953 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
MINOR UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
MENTION A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVERCAST MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THERE COULD
A SHORT PERIOD OF CLEARING TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH MORE
STRATUS NOT FAR BEHIND IT SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED WINDS A BIT IN VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW YORK
WINDS LOOKED OKAY. NO OTHER CHANGES TO ZONES PAST FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD UPPER LOW TO MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW NIGHT. STRONG MID-MAY DIURNAL HEATING AND COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINING TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE REGION. MODELS ALL
SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIPITATION WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CAPE.
THE NAM BRING PRECIP BY MORNING AND THE GFS DURING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LOCAL WSETA SHOWS EL LEVEL NEAR 15K FT SO PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING BASED ON HEATING, BUT A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW.  SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE THU INTO FRI AND LEANED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEAN MOS POP
SOLUTION OF LOW CHANCE WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING IN THE AREA WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND ZERO WED AND +3 THU/FRI. THIS BRINGS MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WED AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THU
AND FRI.  MIN TEMPERATURES A CHALLENGE WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER SO
STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE/PERSISTENCE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
IN A FEW SPOTS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DURING EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. LATEST
OP/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING UPPER LOW TO ONLY SLUGGISHLY
CREEP EASTWARD DURING UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IS A TAD SLOWER THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS. NONETHELESS...MEAN
POSITION OF COLD CORE CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN CANADIAN MARITIMES
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THREAT OF SHRA SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO
NIL...WITH ONLY SCT MID LVL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS
GRADUALLY CREEP UPWARD DURING SAT-MON TIME FRAME...AND WITH MORE
SUN EXPECTED...NEAR NORMAL MAX/MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REALIZED. BY
LATER MONDAY INTO TUE SOME HINTS AT A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WNW...AND WILL INTRODUCE SLT CHC/CHC -SHRA HERE.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS REGION THROUGHOUT COURSE OF NEXT 24
HOURS DESPITE PREDOMINATELY BKN-OVC CONDS. COLD UPPER LOW TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WHICH WILL
BRING WDLY SCT TO SCT -SHRA TO REGION AFTER 12Z. CALM TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD WITH CIGS IN GENERAL
VARYING BTWN 050-080 KFT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAHIFF






FXUS61 KBTV 171936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD UPPER LOW TO MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW NIGHT. STRONG MID-MAY DIURNAL HEATING AND COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINING TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE REGION. MODELS ALL
SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIPITATION WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CAPE.
THE NAM BRING PRECIP BY MORNING AND THE GFS DURING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LOCAL WSETA SHOWS EL LEVEL NEAR 15K FT SO PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING BASED ON HEATING, BUT A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW.  SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE THU INTO FRI AND LEANED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEAN MOS POP
SOLUTION OF LOW CHANCE WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING IN THE AREA WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND ZERO WED AND +3 THU/FRI. THIS BRINGS MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WED AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THU
AND FRI.  MIN TEMPERATURES A CHALLENGE WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER SO
STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE/PERSISTENCE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
IN A FEW SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DURING EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. LATEST
OP/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING UPPER LOW TO ONLY SLUGGISHLY
CREEP EASTWARD DURING UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IS A TAD SLOWER THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS. NONETHELESS...MEAN
POSITION OF COLD CORE CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN CANADIAN MARITIMES
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THREAT OF SHRA SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO
NIL...WITH ONLY SCT MID LVL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS
GRADUALLY CREEP UPWARD DURING SAT-MON TIME FRAME...AND WITH MORE
SUN EXPECTED...NEAR NORMAL MAX/MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REALIZED. BY
LATER MONDAY INTO TUE SOME HINTS AT A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WNW...AND WILL INTRODUCE SLT CHC/CHC -SHRA HERE.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS REGION THROUGHOUT COURSE OF NEXT 24
HOURS DESPITE PREDOMINATELY BKN-OVC CONDS. COLD UPPER LOW TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WHICH WILL
BRING WDLY SCT TO SCT -SHRA TO REGION AFTER 12Z. CALM TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD WITH CIGS IN GENERAL
VARYING BTWN 050-080 KFT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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