Expires:200505202100;;213208
FPUS51 KBTV 200730
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005


VTZ006-008-010-016>018-202100-
LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...
RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
330 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LATE. HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 40.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 40.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 60.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 200711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
311 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WET/CLOUDY WX PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE
THE ENTIRE REGION. SKIES OVER THE CWA FOR TDY STILL UNDER INFLUENCE
OF WK RIDGE...BUT WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW
WHICH IS CURRENTLY MVG BACK WEST OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES. BASED ON
ITS CURRENT POSITION...WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE DAY OVER CWA W/ FEW
CLDS AND PRECIP FREE. CLD COVER ON INCR LATE AFTNOON INTO THE
EVENING HRS AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WILL
ALSO INTRODUCE SL CHANCE OF -RW BFR 00Z IN NE VT OVERSPREADING REST
OF AREA DURING OVERNITE. MDLS SHOW LGT QPF AMTS...W/ HIGHEST AMTS
WORKING INTO MAINE BASED ON LOW CIRC...AS WILL BE THE CASE INTO
SATURDAY WHEN LOW SETTLES OVER WESTERN NEW ENG/EASTERN NY. LOW WILL
SLOWLY MV SOUTH AND BECOME CUTOFF LATE WEEKND...ALOWING FOR MORE OF
OCEAN MOISTURE TO WORK EAST OVER CWA...AND WILL ADJUST POPS BASED ON
CURRENT MDL RUNS. SUN INTO MON...W/ CUTOFF MVG SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...ANOTHER LOW DIVING SE FROM GREAT LKS WILL BEGIN TO DRAG
COASTAL LOW WEST AND ALLOW FOR HEAVIER QPF...ACROSS CWA AS IT MVS
WEST MON INTO MON NITE.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MON NGT INTO TUES THESE TWO UPPER LOWS MERGE...REINFORCING
CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN PA/NY. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW HEAVIER PRECIP
TO MV OFF OCEAN RIGHT THRU AREA. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES IN
EXTENDED. WILL WAIT AND GIVE NEXT SHIFT FURTHER RUNS TO SEE IF
CURRENT SETUP HOLDS FOR MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY SKC THRU
ABOUT 14Z. INSTABILITY CU/SC DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z WITH CIGS
BKN040-050 THIS PM...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR TRRN WHERE WIDELY SCT
-SHRA ARE PSBL. COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CU/SC WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RJS






FXUS61 KBTV 200100
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
857 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA ACTVTY ACRS NE VT HAS ABATED WITH CLRG SKIES...
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLR AND COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH MAINLY SKC THRU 12-14Z THEN INSTABILITY SC/CU
DVLPG SMLR TO TDY IN MTN LOCALES BUT GRDLLY SPREADING INTO VLYS
WITH ISOLD/CHC -SHRA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 340 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AS IN THE LONG TERM...VERY COMPLEX SITUATION STARTING TO BE RESOLVED
IN THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION LIKELY A
CULPRIT IN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE INTO THE
MID ATL/NE US MOVES UNDER CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WHICH HELPS TO REDEVELOP LONG WAVE TROF AND UPPER LOW FRI
NITE INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN MODELS DIFFER ON HOW IT EVOLVES BUT ALL
FCST AN UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND THEN OFF THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY, BUT EXACT
LOCATION UNCERTAIN WHICH MAKES WEATHER UNCERTAIN FOR OUR AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST WAY TO GO NOW IS WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES EAST AND SOUTH. BEST CHANCE OF ANY
STEADY RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN
MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL LIKELY CHANGE FURTHER.

TONIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE FAR NE
KINGDOM. TEMPS WILL FALL 3-5 DEG OR SO BELOW MOS AGAIN TONIGHT.

TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TODAY BUT SOME INSTABILITY BKN CLDS AND
A SLGHT CHC OF SHRA.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN FCST TO CONTINUE EVOLVING DURING COURSE
OF EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST...WITH OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE RUNS
SHOWING GREAT VARIATIONS IN TIMING/STRENGTH/LOCATION OF
SEMI-PERMANENT UPPER LOW FEATURE ACROSS NE CONUS. LATEST OP GFS
WOULD ARGUE FOR UNSETTLED CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH ENTIRE
PERIOD...WHEREAS LAST NIGHTS EURO RUNS WOULD ARGUE FOR BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS NE CANADA TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREA DURING MID WEEK TIME
FRAME. WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT LARGE SCALE BLOCKING
PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NRN QUEBEC/DAVIS STRAIT AREA DURING DAYS
4-7...THUS UPSTREAM FEATURES WILL BE INHIBITED FROM MOVING MUCH AT
ALL. AT THIS TIME PREFER TO OPT CLOSE TO HPC SOLNS HERE...WHICH
WOULD ARGUE FOR A CONTINUED CHC -SHRA SUN NT INTO EARLY WED...THEN
MORE OPTIMISTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH DRIER CONDS AND MORE
SUN. NONETHELESS...IF LATEST OP GFS SOLN IS CORRECT...UNSETTLED
CONDS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MEX MOS AND
MEAN ENSEMBLE TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER DURING THE
PERIOD...WHICH AS EXPECTED ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREA WIDE OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNALLY FORCED
CU/STRATOCU AND ANY -SHRA SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
WINDS BECOMING LT AND VRB. THEN SCT-BKN CIGS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW ACROSS MAINLY MTN LOCALES AFTER 15Z. WINDS TO BE MAINLY LT
NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW





FXUS61 KBTV 191940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AS IN THE LONG TERM...VERY COMPLEX SITUATION STARTING TO BE RESOLVED
IN THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION LIKELY A
CULPRIT IN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE INTO THE
MID ATL/NE US MOVES UNDER CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WHICH HELPS TO REDEVELOP LONG WAVE TROF AND UPPER LOW FRI
NITE INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN MODELS DIFFER ON HOW IT EVOLVES BUT ALL
FCST AN UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND THEN OFF THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY, BUT EXACT
LOCATION UNCERTAIN WHICH MAKES WEATHER UNCERTAIN FOR OUR AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST WAY TO GO NOW IS WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES EAST AND SOUTH. BEST CHANCE OF ANY
STEADY RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN
MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL LIKELY CHANGE FURTHER.

TONIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE FAR NE
KINGDOM. TEMPS WILL FALL 3-5 DEG OR SO BELOW MOS AGAIN TONIGHT.

TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TODAY BUT SOME INSTABILITY BKN CLDS AND
A SLGHT CHC OF SHRA.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN FCST TO CONTINUE EVOLVING DURING COURSE
OF EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST...WITH OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE RUNS
SHOWING GREAT VARIATIONS IN TIMING/STRENGTH/LOCATION OF
SEMI-PERMANENT UPPER LOW FEATURE ACROSS NE CONUS. LATEST OP GFS
WOULD ARGUE FOR UNSETTLED CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH ENTIRE
PERIOD...WHEREAS LAST NIGHTS EURO RUNS WOULD ARGUE FOR BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS NE CANADA TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREA DURING MID WEEK TIME
FRAME. WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT LARGE SCALE BLOCKING
PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NRN QUEBEC/DAVIS STRAIT AREA DURING DAYS
4-7...THUS UPSTREAM FEATURES WILL BE INHIBITED FROM MOVING MUCH AT
ALL. AT THIS TIME PREFER TO OPT CLOSE TO HPC SOLNS HERE...WHICH
WOULD ARGUE FOR A CONTINUED CHC -SHRA SUN NT INTO EARLY WED...THEN
MORE OPTIMISTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH DRIER CONDS AND MORE
SUN. NONETHELESS...IF LATEST OP GFS SOLN IS CORRECT...UNSETTLED
CONDS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MEX MOS AND
MEAN ENSEMBLE TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER DURING THE
PERIOD...WHICH AS EXPECTED ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREA WIDE OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNALLY FORCED
CU/STRATOCU AND ANY -SHRA SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
WINDS BECOMING LT AND VRB. THEN SCT-BKN CIGS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW ACROSS MAINLY MTN LOCALES AFTER 15Z. WINDS TO BE MAINLY LT
NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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