An analysis from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at
analyzes a recent report from Exxon Mobil, available at
and finds that behind the bravado, a serious supply problem is
emerging. (Not this year, but over the next 5-10.)
I recommend reading the article by Cavallo first, then you can pierce the
corporate fog in the "2004 Energy Outlook Presentation" (pdf) more
quickly. The pdf contains only the lovely graphics; there is explanatory
prose on that page of the web site, but the graphics there aren't as clean.
As far as content goes, I could rave for hours, but I'll just mention three
points that are interesting but not directly related to Cavallo's thesis:
1) The E-M future is a climate change nightmare (surprise!) with
dramatically increased electric generation dominated by coal.
2) Chart 13 is for those of us who think the "hydrogen economy" is a scam
to distract effort away from real efficiency work: it shows that a
theoretical, optimized, future, currently unavailable hydrogen car has
about the same climate change impact and operating cost as a Prius you can
order today! (There is a waiting list, I understand.)
3) The next-to-last chart shows the depth of E-M and their partner's
commitment to efficiency. They are proud to have given Stanford $225
million. But that's from four companies with multi-billion dollar budgets
over ten years! $5.5 million per company per year! Chump change.
Well, enjoy or discard or weep, as you wish.
All the best,
Richard W. Leigh, P.E. Voice: 212-866-4458
415 Central Park West, 12C Fax: 253-660-4768
New York NY 10025 [log in to unmask]