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SKIVT-L  August 2005, Week 5

SKIVT-L August 2005, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 30 Aug 2005 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (436 lines)

Expires:200508302215;;619999
FPUS51 KBTV 300800
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-016>018-302215-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...
BRISTOL...RIPTON
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY 
SUNNY WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 
70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL 
MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT 
TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 
70S. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH 
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN MOSTLY 
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.FRIDAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL 
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
60S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.LABOR DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 300747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
QUEBEC PROVINCE.  THIS FEATURE HELPED ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...FEATURE WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON
THE AREA.  RADAR TRENDS SHOW BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD KEEP BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
DRY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS RUTLAND...
WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES.  ONCE THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD
EXISTS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING
MECHANISMS TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.  WILL ONLY MENTION A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD.  A DISTINCT BREAK EXISTS BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVE UP IN QUEBEC PROVINCE AND THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE
KATRINA...WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD
LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT OF QUIET WEATHER BEFORE STEADIER RAINS
MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  WILL MENTION CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE REMAINS
OF KATRINA TRACK RIGHT OVER THE AREA.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
BETWEEN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT GETTING
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND HELP TO MIX THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.  WILL
MENTION BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND MENTION WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL THEREFORE BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE REMAINS
OF KATRINA.  LOOKING AT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT.  IF THERE ARE ANY ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS...IT WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.  WILL CONTINUE IDEA FROM DAY SHIFT
AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING THIS EVENT.  FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH...3 INCHES IN ONE HOUR AND 6 INCHES IN
6 HOURS...AND SO FEEL FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO SMALLER
CREEKS AND STREAM VERSUS ANY OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED.  BULK OF MOISTURE FROM KATRINA WILL
EXIT THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY AND GOING FORECAST HAS ALL OF
THESE IDEAS COVERED WELL AT THIS TIME.  THUS NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR COND FOR ALL SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING LOW
CLDS W/ RAIN/FG THRU THIS MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. AFT 15Z...ALL SITES
WILL SEE DECR IN LOW CLD DECK BUT WILL REMAIN IN AFOREMENTIONED
CATEGORIES. WINDS LIGHT THRU 13Z-14Z THEN INCR OUT OF S IN VT...SW
IN N NY...5 TO 15KTS. HIR TRRN WILL BE OBSCD.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION..........JN






FXUS61 KBTV 300159
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LOOKS GOOD...SO WILL
NOT UPDATE THE PREVIOUS ZONE FORECAST.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 349 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005)

SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLICATED WX PTRN STL EXISTS ACRS NE WITH CONVERGENCE ZONE...PRE-
KATRINA ENERGY/MOISTURE AND WITH "KATRINA" HERSELF.

FIRST...CONVERGENCE ZONE AS ADVERTISED THE PAST SVRL DAYS BY ALL
MDLS WAS LOCATED ALG E COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. NAM APPEARED TO HV BEST
HNDL OF THIS AND GFS APPEARED OVERDONE. ATTM...IT APPEARS WEAK SFC
RDG AXIS FM ATLANTIC HIGH ROTATING N AND INCRSD S/SE GRADIENT WL PUSH
CONVERGENCE ZONE FURTHER INLAND.

SECOND...LOOKING AT LATEST SAT IMAGERY INDICATING ACTVTY UPSTREAM
APPRCHG OH RVR VLY AND NOW ALL MDLS GIVING SOME INDICATION (AND
DFRNCS) OF THIS FOR TNGT/ERLY TUES. IN FACT...IT LOOKS AS IF THIS WL
INTERACT WITH NW MVG CONVERGENCE ZONE FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR LTR TNGT-
MIDDAY TUES (ESP ERN AND SRN FA).

THIRD..."KATRINA". OFFICIAL NHC TRACK AND GFS BRGS "KATRINA" ALG/W
OF ST WLRNC VLY WED/WED NGT (GFS CLOSER TO FA) BUT NAM APPEARS OUT
TO LUNCH IN SPEED (THU NGT) AND TRACK (SNE). SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW
BUT HPC/GFS SOLN A DRIER AND PREFERRED SCENARIO WITH NAM BRINGING
PTNL PRBLMS.

MOISTURE FM KATRINA WL RIDE ALG DVLPG INVERTED SFC TROF FM KATRINA
AS IT INTERACTS WITH NRN STREAM TROF AND ESTABLISHED CONVERGENCE
ZONE. IT'S THIS ERLY STAGE THAT WL BRG THE BEST SHOT OF SHRA/RA ACRS
ALL OF FA WITH "ACTUAL" REMNANTS MORE FOCUSED ALG/W OF TRACK.

ALTHOUGH...RAIN/FLOODING IS NORMALLY GRTST CONCERN...A TRACK W OF
CHMPL VLY WITH DECENT PRS GRADIENT BTWN XTRA-TROPICAL "KATRINA" AND
HIGH E OF NEW ENGLAND CUD BRG GUSTY S WNDS FOR CHMPL VLY WED/WED NGT.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TNGT: SHRA ALRDY IN WRN NY WITH SCT -TSRA DVLPG IN SRN VT AND DVLPG
SHRA BTWN THIS ACTVTY IN MOHAWK VLY/CATSKILLS. THEREFORE...XPCT CONTD
DVLPG SHRA/TSRA WITH GRST THREAT ACRS ADRNDKS AND POINTS SE INTO VT.

TUE: MOST INDICATIONS THAT THE ABV MNTD ACTVTY WL SHIFT ENE WITH PSG
OF MID-LVL SUPPORT AND WE AWAIT MOISTURE RETURN FM KATRINA (WELL IN
ADVANCE) FM ACTUAL CIRCULATION. GFS WAS USED FOR THIS WITH SRN FA
LATE
IN THE DAY AND THEN LIFTING N WITH TIME THRU TUES NGT/WED.

TUE/NGT/WED/WED NGT: THE RECENTLY MNTD ACTVTY INCREASES AS KATRINA
MVS
FURTHER N INTO OH RVR VLY WITH INCREASING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAA
PTRN OF RICH...TROPICAL AIR WITH PWATS AOA 2" ADVECTING INTO BNDRY.
GFS TRACK SLIGHTLY E OF HPC...THUS WENT SLIGHT BLEND BUT KATRINA
REMNANTS LIFT NE ACRS/W ST LWRNC VLY WITH BEST OVERRUNNING N/W OF
TRACK. THUS....MAINLY ST LWRNC VLY.

THU...KATRINA HAS PUSHED THRU/N OF FA WITH ERLY CHC OF WRAPARD/CAA
INSTABILTY SHRA ALONG N FA WITH GRDL CLRG ELSEWHERE AND LESSER
DEWPOINTS AS TROPICAL AIRMASS DEPARTS WITH KATRINA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LONG WAVE PATTERN ACRS NE CONUS FOR
FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF S/W
ENERGY. MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEVELOPS ACRS FA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
STRONG 5H VORT ROUNDS BASE. WL MENTION CHC POPS ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND KEEP REST OF FCST DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-12C
THRU THE PERIOD SUPPORT TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL LVLS. NICE WX IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ULVL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO OUR CWA.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TAF FCST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS WITH CONCERNS BEING
TIMING OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CIGS. SATL PICS THIS AFTN AND SFC
OBS SHOW SCT-BKN DECK BTWN 020-030 KFT AND BKN-OVC DECK BWTN
12-15KFT. CRNT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PRECIP ACRS WESTERN
NY/PA WITH GENERAL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NE. EXPECT THIS PRECIP ACRS
OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FA AFT 04Z TONIGHT. WL MENTION TEMPO GROUPS IN
THE TAFS AT SLK/BTV/MPV TO COVERAGE THIS PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOUNDINGS AND RH PROFILES SUGGEST THE CLD DECK LWRING
ACRS MPV AS LLVL SOUTHERLY FLW ADVECT IN MORE MOISTURE.

HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON OFFICIAL HPC TRACK AND CLOSEST GUIDANCE (GFS) THE ACTUAL
CIRCULATION OF "KATRINA" WL TVL ALG/W OF ST LWRNC RVR VLY WED NGT.

THEREFORE...HVST RAINFALL WL BE ALG/W OF TRACK WITH NRN NY BEING
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FM STG TROPICAL OVERRUNNING ALG INVERTED TROF/BNDRY
AHD OF KATRINA WITH SOME OVERRUNNING TROPICAL SHRA PRIOR TO REST OF
FA BEING IN TROPICAL WRM SECTOR.

RAINFALL AMTS?! - N/ALG TRACK 2-4" LCLY HIGHER WITH PERHAPS LESS
THAN AN INCH S OF TRACK.

THERE'S STL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS
(ESP
NRN NY/NRN VT) TO STL CLOSELY MONITOR FCSTS AND TRACK OF "KATRINA".

CRNT...FLD GUIDANCE INDICATES 3.5 TO 6 INCHES IN A 6-12 HR PERIOD
WHICH IS PSBL WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS "FLOYD - 1999".

HWVR...A STALLED FNTL BNDRY AND SOME PSBL TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTERACTION PRECEDING "KATRINA" TNGT/TUES CUD LWR THESE VALUES
AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR PSBL MODIFICATIONS.

AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED FOR PSBL CHGS/LTR UPDATES.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH









FXUS61 KBTV 291949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLICATED WX PTRN STL EXISTS ACRS NE WITH CONVERGENCE ZONE...PRE-
KATRINA ENERGY/MOISTURE AND WITH "KATRINA" HERSELF.

FIRST...CONVERGENCE ZONE AS ADVERTISED THE PAST SVRL DAYS BY ALL
MDLS WAS LOCATED ALG E COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. NAM APPEARED TO HV BEST
HNDL OF THIS AND GFS APPEARED OVERDONE. ATTM...IT APPEARS WEAK SFC
RDG AXIS FM ATLANTIC HIGH ROTATING N AND INCRSD S/SE GRADIENT WL PUSH
CONVERGENCE ZONE FURTHER INLAND.

SECOND...LOOKING AT LATEST SAT IMAGERY INDICATING ACTVTY UPSTREAM
APPRCHG OH RVR VLY AND NOW ALL MDLS GIVING SOME INDICATION (AND
DFRNCS) OF THIS FOR TNGT/ERLY TUES. IN FACT...IT LOOKS AS IF THIS WL
INTERACT WITH NW MVG CONVERGENCE ZONE FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR LTR TNGT-
MIDDAY TUES (ESP ERN AND SRN FA).

THIRD..."KATRINA". OFFICIAL NHC TRACK AND GFS BRGS "KATRINA" ALG/W
OF ST WLRNC VLY WED/WED NGT (GFS CLOSER TO FA) BUT NAM APPEARS OUT
TO LUNCH IN SPEED (THU NGT) AND TRACK (SNE). SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW
BUT HPC/GFS SOLN A DRIER AND PREFERRED SCENARIO WITH NAM BRINGING
PTNL PRBLMS.

MOISTURE FM KATRINA WL RIDE ALG DVLPG INVERTED SFC TROF FM KATRINA
AS IT INTERACTS WITH NRN STREAM TROF AND ESTABLISHED CONVERGENCE
ZONE. IT'S THIS ERLY STAGE THAT WL BRG THE BEST SHOT OF SHRA/RA ACRS
ALL OF FA WITH "ACTUAL" REMNANTS MORE FOCUSED ALG/W OF TRACK.

ALTHOUGH...RAIN/FLOODING IS NORMALLY GRTST CONCERN...A TRACK W OF
CHMPL VLY WITH DECENT PRS GRADIENT BTWN XTRA-TROPICAL "KATRINA" AND
HIGH E OF NEW ENGLAND CUD BRG GUSTY S WNDS FOR CHMPL VLY WED/WED NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TNGT: SHRA ALRDY IN WRN NY WITH SCT -TSRA DVLPG IN SRN VT AND DVLPG
SHRA BTWN THIS ACTVTY IN MOHAWK VLY/CATSKILLS. THEREFORE...XPCT CONTD
DVLPG SHRA/TSRA WITH GRST THREAT ACRS ADRNDKS AND POINTS SE INTO VT.

TUE: MOST INDICATIONS THAT THE ABV MNTD ACTVTY WL SHIFT ENE WITH PSG
OF MID-LVL SUPPORT AND WE AWAIT MOISTURE RETURN FM KATRINA (WELL IN
ADVANCE) FM ACTUAL CIRCULATION. GFS WAS USED FOR THIS WITH SRN FA LATE
IN THE DAY AND THEN LIFTING N WITH TIME THRU TUES NGT/WED.

TUE/NGT/WED/WED NGT: THE RECENTLY MNTD ACTVTY INCREASES AS KATRINA MVS
FURTHER N INTO OH RVR VLY WITH INCREASING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAA
PTRN OF RICH...TROPICAL AIR WITH PWATS AOA 2" ADVECTING INTO BNDRY.
GFS TRACK SLIGHTLY E OF HPC...THUS WENT SLIGHT BLEND BUT KATRINA
REMNANTS LIFT NE ACRS/W ST LWRNC VLY WITH BEST OVERRUNNING N/W OF
TRACK. THUS....MAINLY ST LWRNC VLY.

THU...KATRINA HAS PUSHED THRU/N OF FA WITH ERLY CHC OF WRAPARD/CAA
INSTABILTY SHRA ALONG N FA WITH GRDL CLRG ELSEWHERE AND LESSER
DEWPOINTS AS TROPICAL AIRMASS DEPARTS WITH KATRINA.


&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LONG WAVE PATTERN ACRS NE CONUS FOR
FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF S/W
ENERGY. MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEVELOPS ACRS FA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
STRONG 5H VORT ROUNDS BASE. WL MENTION CHC POPS ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND KEEP REST OF FCST DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-12C
THRU THE PERIOD SUPPORT TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL LVLS. NICE WX IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ULVL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TAF FCST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS WITH CONCERNS BEING
TIMING OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CIGS. SATL PICS THIS AFTN AND SFC
OBS SHOW SCT-BKN DECK BTWN 020-030 KFT AND BKN-OVC DECK BWTN
12-15KFT. CRNT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PRECIP ACRS WESTERN
NY/PA WITH GENERAL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NE. EXPECT THIS PRECIP ACRS
OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FA AFT 04Z TONIGHT. WL MENTION TEMPO GROUPS IN
THE TAFS AT SLK/BTV/MPV TO COVERAGE THIS PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOUNDINGS AND RH PROFILES SUGGEST THE CLD DECK LWRING
ACRS MPV AS LLVL SOUTHERLY FLW ADVECT IN MORE MOISTURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON OFFICIAL HPC TRACK AND CLOSEST GUIDANCE (GFS) THE ACTUAL
CIRCULATION OF "KATRINA" WL TVL ALG/W OF ST LWRNC RVR VLY WED NGT.

THEREFORE...HVST RAINFALL WL BE ALG/W OF TRACK WITH NRN NY BEING
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FM STG TROPICAL OVERRUNNING ALG INVERTED TROF/BNDRY
AHD OF KATRINA WITH SOME OVERRUNNING TROPICAL SHRA PRIOR TO REST OF
FA BEING IN TROPICAL WRM SECTOR.

RAINFALL AMTS?! - N/ALG TRACK 2-4" LCLY HIGHER WITH PERHAPS LESS
THAN AN INCH S OF TRACK.

THERE'S STL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS (ESP
NRN NY/NRN VT) TO STL CLOSELY MONITOR FCSTS AND TRACK OF "KATRINA".

CRNT...FLD GUIDANCE INDICATES 3.5 TO 6 INCHES IN A 6-12 HR PERIOD
WHICH IS PSBL WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS "FLOYD - 1999".

HWVR...A STALLED FNTL BNDRY AND SOME PSBL TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTERACTION PRECEDING "KATRINA" TNGT/TUES CUD LWR THESE VALUES
AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR PSBL MODIFICATIONS.

AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED FOR PSBL CHGS/LTR UPDATES.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...SLW







   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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December 2016, Week 4
December 2016, Week 3
December 2016, Week 2
December 2016, Week 1
November 2016, Week 5
November 2016, Week 4
November 2016, Week 3
November 2016, Week 2
November 2016, Week 1
October 2016, Week 5
October 2016, Week 4
October 2016, Week 3
October 2016, Week 2
October 2016, Week 1
September 2016, Week 5
September 2016, Week 4
September 2016, Week 3
September 2016, Week 2
September 2016, Week 1
August 2016, Week 5
August 2016, Week 4
August 2016, Week 3
August 2016, Week 2
August 2016, Week 1
July 2016, Week 5
July 2016, Week 4
July 2016, Week 3
July 2016, Week 2
July 2016, Week 1
June 2016, Week 5
June 2016, Week 4
June 2016, Week 3
June 2016, Week 2
June 2016, Week 1
May 2016, Week 5
May 2016, Week 4
May 2016, Week 3
May 2016, Week 2
May 2016, Week 1
April 2016, Week 5
April 2016, Week 4
April 2016, Week 3
April 2016, Week 2
April 2016, Week 1
March 2016, Week 5
March 2016, Week 4
March 2016, Week 3
March 2016, Week 2
March 2016, Week 1
February 2016, Week 5
February 2016, Week 4
February 2016, Week 3
February 2016, Week 2
February 2016, Week 1
January 2016, Week 5
January 2016, Week 4
January 2016, Week 3
January 2016, Week 2
January 2016, Week 1
December 2015, Week 5
December 2015, Week 4
December 2015, Week 3
December 2015, Week 2
December 2015, Week 1
November 2015, Week 5
November 2015, Week 4
November 2015, Week 3
November 2015, Week 2
November 2015, Week 1
October 2015, Week 5
October 2015, Week 4
October 2015, Week 3
October 2015, Week 2
October 2015, Week 1
September 2015, Week 5
September 2015, Week 4
September 2015, Week 3
September 2015, Week 2
September 2015, Week 1
August 2015, Week 5
August 2015, Week 4
August 2015, Week 3
August 2015, Week 2
August 2015, Week 1
July 2015, Week 5
July 2015, Week 4
July 2015, Week 3
July 2015, Week 2
July 2015, Week 1
June 2015, Week 5
June 2015, Week 4
June 2015, Week 3
June 2015, Week 2
June 2015, Week 1
May 2015, Week 5
May 2015, Week 4
May 2015, Week 3
May 2015, Week 2
May 2015, Week 1
April 2015, Week 5
April 2015, Week 4
April 2015, Week 3
April 2015, Week 2
April 2015, Week 1
March 2015, Week 5
March 2015, Week 4
March 2015, Week 3
March 2015, Week 2
March 2015, Week 1
February 2015, Week 4
February 2015, Week 3
February 2015, Week 2
February 2015, Week 1
January 2015, Week 5
January 2015, Week 4
January 2015, Week 3
January 2015, Week 2
January 2015, Week 1
December 2014, Week 5
December 2014, Week 4
December 2014, Week 3
December 2014, Week 2
December 2014, Week 1
November 2014, Week 5
November 2014, Week 4
November 2014, Week 3
November 2014, Week 2
November 2014, Week 1
October 2014, Week 5
October 2014, Week 4
October 2014, Week 3
October 2014, Week 2
October 2014, Week 1
September 2014, Week 5
September 2014, Week 4
September 2014, Week 3
September 2014, Week 2
September 2014, Week 1
August 2014, Week 5
August 2014, Week 4
August 2014, Week 3
August 2014, Week 2
August 2014, Week 1
July 2014, Week 5
July 2014, Week 4
July 2014, Week 3
July 2014, Week 2
July 2014, Week 1
June 2014, Week 5
June 2014, Week 4
June 2014, Week 3
June 2014, Week 2
June 2014, Week 1
May 2014, Week 5
May 2014, Week 4
May 2014, Week 3
May 2014, Week 2
May 2014, Week 1
April 2014, Week 5
April 2014, Week 4
April 2014, Week 3
April 2014, Week 2
April 2014, Week 1
March 2014, Week 5
March 2014, Week 4
March 2014, Week 3
March 2014, Week 2
March 2014, Week 1
February 2014, Week 4
February 2014, Week 3
February 2014, Week 2
February 2014, Week 1
January 2014, Week 5
January 2014, Week 4
January 2014, Week 3
January 2014, Week 2
January 2014, Week 1
December 2013, Week 5
December 2013, Week 4
December 2013, Week 3
December 2013, Week 2
December 2013, Week 1
November 2013, Week 5
November 2013, Week 4
November 2013, Week 3
November 2013, Week 2
November 2013, Week 1
October 2013, Week 5
October 2013, Week 4
October 2013, Week 3
October 2013, Week 2
October 2013, Week 1
September 2013, Week 5
September 2013, Week 4
September 2013, Week 3
September 2013, Week 2
September 2013, Week 1
August 2013, Week 5
August 2013, Week 4
August 2013, Week 3
August 2013, Week 2
August 2013, Week 1
July 2013, Week 5
July 2013, Week 4
July 2013, Week 3
July 2013, Week 2
July 2013, Week 1
June 2013, Week 5
June 2013, Week 4
June 2013, Week 3
June 2013, Week 2
June 2013, Week 1
May 2013, Week 5
May 2013, Week 4
May 2013, Week 3
May 2013, Week 2
May 2013, Week 1
April 2013, Week 5
April 2013, Week 4
April 2013, Week 3
April 2013, Week 2
April 2013, Week 1
March 2013, Week 5
March 2013, Week 4
March 2013, Week 3
March 2013, Week 2
March 2013, Week 1
February 2013, Week 4
February 2013, Week 3
February 2013, Week 2
February 2013, Week 1
January 2013, Week 5
January 2013, Week 4
January 2013, Week 3
January 2013, Week 2
January 2013, Week 1
December 2012, Week 5
December 2012, Week 4
December 2012, Week 3
December 2012, Week 2
December 2012, Week 1
November 2012, Week 5
November 2012, Week 4
November 2012, Week 3
November 2012, Week 2
November 2012, Week 1
October 2012, Week 5
October 2012, Week 4
October 2012, Week 3
October 2012, Week 2
October 2012, Week 1
September 2012, Week 5
September 2012, Week 4
September 2012, Week 3
September 2012, Week 2
September 2012, Week 1
August 2012, Week 5
August 2012, Week 4
August 2012, Week 3
August 2012, Week 2
August 2012, Week 1
July 2012, Week 5
July 2012, Week 4
July 2012, Week 3
July 2012, Week 2
July 2012, Week 1
June 2012, Week 5
June 2012, Week 4
June 2012, Week 3
June 2012, Week 2
June 2012, Week 1
May 2012, Week 5
May 2012, Week 4
May 2012, Week 3
May 2012, Week 2
May 2012, Week 1
April 2012, Week 5
April 2012, Week 4
April 2012, Week 3
April 2012, Week 2
April 2012, Week 1
March 2012, Week 5
March 2012, Week 4
March 2012, Week 3
March 2012, Week 2
March 2012, Week 1
February 2012, Week 5
February 2012, Week 4
February 2012, Week 3
February 2012, Week 2
February 2012, Week 1
January 2012, Week 5
January 2012, Week 4
January 2012, Week 3
January 2012, Week 2
January 2012, Week 1
December 2011, Week 5
December 2011, Week 4
December 2011, Week 3
December 2011, Week 2
December 2011, Week 1
November 2011, Week 5
November 2011, Week 4
November 2011, Week 3
November 2011, Week 2
November 2011, Week 1
October 2011, Week 5
October 2011, Week 4
October 2011, Week 3
October 2011, Week 2
October 2011, Week 1
September 2011, Week 5
September 2011, Week 4
September 2011, Week 3
September 2011, Week 2
September 2011, Week 1
August 2011, Week 5
August 2011, Week 4
August 2011, Week 3
August 2011, Week 2
August 2011, Week 1
July 2011, Week 5
July 2011, Week 4
July 2011, Week 3
July 2011, Week 2
July 2011, Week 1
June 2011, Week 5
June 2011, Week 4
June 2011, Week 3
June 2011, Week 2
June 2011, Week 1
May 2011, Week 5
May 2011, Week 4
May 2011, Week 3
May 2011, Week 2
May 2011, Week 1
April 2011, Week 5
April 2011, Week 4
April 2011, Week 3
April 2011, Week 2
April 2011, Week 1
March 2011, Week 5
March 2011, Week 4
March 2011, Week 3
March 2011, Week 2
March 2011, Week 1
February 2011, Week 4
February 2011, Week 3
February 2011, Week 2
February 2011, Week 1
January 2011, Week 5
January 2011, Week 4
January 2011, Week 3
January 2011, Week 2
January 2011, Week 1
December 2010, Week 5
December 2010, Week 4
December 2010, Week 3
December 2010, Week 2
December 2010, Week 1
November 2010, Week 5
November 2010, Week 4
November 2010, Week 3
November 2010, Week 2
November 2010, Week 1
October 2010, Week 5
October 2010, Week 4
October 2010, Week 3
October 2010, Week 2
October 2010, Week 1
September 2010, Week 5
September 2010, Week 4
September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
September 2010, Week 1
August 2010, Week 5
August 2010, Week 4
August 2010, Week 3
August 2010, Week 2
August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
December 2008, Week 4
December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
December 2006, Week 4
December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
March 2006, Week 5
March 2006, Week 4
March 2006, Week 3
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March 2006, Week 1
February 2006, Week 4
February 2006, Week 3
February 2006, Week 2
February 2006, Week 1
January 2006, Week 5
January 2006, Week 4
January 2006, Week 3
January 2006, Week 2
January 2006, Week 1
December 2005, Week 5
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December 2005, Week 3
December 2005, Week 2
December 2005, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 4
November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
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November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
July 2004, Week 2
July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
May 2004, Week 4
May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
April 2004, Week 5
April 2004, Week 4
April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
March 2004, Week 5
March 2004, Week 4
March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
March 2004, Week 1
February 2004, Week 5
February 2004, Week 4
February 2004, Week 3
February 2004, Week 2
February 2004, Week 1
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January 2004, Week 4
January 2004, Week 3
January 2004, Week 2
January 2004, Week 1
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December 2003, Week 4
December 2003, Week 3
December 2003, Week 2
December 2003, Week 1
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November 2003, Week 3
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November 2003, Week 1
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March 2003, Week 3
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 4
September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
September 2002, Week 1
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August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
August 2002, Week 1
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July 2002, Week 4
July 2002, Week 3
July 2002, Week 2
July 2002, Week 1
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June 2002, Week 3
June 2002, Week 2
June 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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