Expires:200509032215;;706833
FPUS51 KBTV 030729
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
329 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-032215-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
329 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2005

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH. 
.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 030756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
VERY NICE AND MOSTLY DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK. A SECOND PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT PROVIDING
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. VARIOUS MODELS GIVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES JUMP UP TO AROUND AN INCH AT 00Z WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS TO TRIGGER SHOWERS BUT PROBABLY
NOT ANY THUNDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS THEN
WANING AFTER SUNSET. THEN COLD ADVECTION GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ESPECIALLY MTNS. SOME MAINLY SHALLOW CU AGAIN
SUNDAY WITH HEATING AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF BUT DON'T
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. RIDGE BUILDS IN SFC AND ALOFT ON
LABOR DAY FOR WHAT SHOULD BE SUNNY DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH 850 TEMP
RUNNING A PRETTY UNIFORM 9C ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 850
TEMPERATURES DROP TO ABOUT 5-6C SUNDAY SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND NEAR 70 SOUTH. 850 TEMP THEN
WARM TO ABOUT +10C MONDAY...BUT WITHIN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AND THOUGH GFS MOS RUNS INTO THE MID 70S...ETA MOS ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER AND LOOKING AT GFS SOUNDINGS IT SEEMS LIKE LOWER
70S WOULD BE A BETTER GUESS SO SHAVED GFS MOS TEMPS FOR MONDAY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLD
MTN LOCATIONS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY THROUGH WED WITH
FAIR SKIES AND NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AND WILL BRING SOME COOLER
WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...
ONE STG S/W EXITING THRU QUEBEC WITH MORE (THIS AFTN AND TNGT)
FOLLOWING ITS TRACKS AS THE TROF HANGS ACRS FA. SCT CLD CVR THRU
MIDDAY THEN SCT-BKN035-040 WITH NXT S/W. VFR CONDS GENERALLY
THROUGHOUT PERIOD WITH PSBLY MVFR WITH ANY -SHRA BTWN 22Z-04Z AT
KSLK AND KMPV.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SLW









FXUS61 KBTV 030156
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1000 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
ANOTHER UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF -RW ACRS OUR NORTHERN FA AND
INCREASE TEMP AT SLK AND NORTHERN DACK ZNS. CXX RADAR SHOWS BROKEN
LINE OF -RW DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
INTERESTING RADAR SIGNATURE THIS EVENING AS GUST FRONT DEVELOPED
FROM HIGH BASE SHOWERS ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LAPS SOUNDINGS WERE
VERY DRY AT LLVLS AND SUPPORTED MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE
FROM 7H. THIS RESULTED IN SFC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRNT BETWN
25-35 MPH. HOWEVER...ONCE SFC HEATING DECREASED AND LLVLS STABILIZED
THE ABILITY FOR HIGHER WINDS TO MIX...QUICKLY DIMINISHED.

OTHERWISE...BASED ON CRNT DWPT OF 56F AT SLK AND WINDS BTWN 5 TO 10
MPH...I WL INCREASE TEMPS TO U40S ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS. THE REST
OF FCST LOOKS IN FINE SHAPE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 451 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
QUICK UPDATE TO ZNS TO ADD CHC POPS ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF VT BASED ON CRNT RADAR AND OBS. CRNT OBS SHOW MSS
WITH -RA AND NW AT 15 WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
SFC INSTABILITY AND 5H VORT HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE
OF -RW ACRS THE SLV ATTM. RADAR SHOWS THIS LINE FROM NEAR MSS TO
CHIPPEWA BAY WITH GENERAL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DWPT OF 52F AT BTV AND DRY SW DOWNSLOPING FLW ACRS
THE CPV EXPECT LINE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BTV AREA. WL
JUST MENTION SCHC POPS AT BTV. ALSO...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...BASED ON WINDS DECOUPLING AND CLRING
SKIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 319 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2005)

SYNOPSIS...
WK TROF/CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA INTO THIS EVENING. HI PRESS TO BUILD
ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SAT THRU SUN AND THEN ACRS THE FA ON
SUN NITE AND MON. UPR TROF TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACRS THE FA ON
SAT AFTERNOON THRU MON.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO LINGER ACRS THE FA THROUGH
EARLY ON SAT NITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON
SAT AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE NRN TIER ZONES EARLY
TONITE AND ON SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA TONITE
AND ON SAT LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.75"...THEN DROP TO AROUND 0.5" ON
SAT NITE. CAPES ACRS THE FA ON SAT TO BE AOB 200 J/KG.

88D MOSAIC SHOWS JUST A FEW LT RETURNS ACRS A FEW PORTIONS OF THE NRN
TIER ZONES ATTM...WITH SOME MORE ORGANIZED MOSTLY -SHRA UP ACRS SRN
CANADA. LAPS SHOWS LOW-LVLS ACRS THE FA APPEAR TO BE PRETTY DRY
ATTM...SO WILL OPT TO MOSTLY HANDLE ANY SPRINKLES WITH THE STF THIS
EVENING AND JUST HANG ONTO SOME SCHC POPS UP ACRS MUCH OF NE/NC VT
EARLY TONITE.

THE GOING FCST OF MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY UP ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES AGAIN...STILL LOOKS GOOD ATTM. DRY
WX EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD...WITH THE LEAST
AMT OF CLDS EXPECTED ACRS THE FA BY MON. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S
ON SAT AND IN THE L-M60S ON SUN. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S ON
SAT NITE.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 PM.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE
GONE WITH ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES TO CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG FORMING IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS WELL AS THE VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS ...BETWEEN 06Z-08Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TABER









FXUS61 KBTV 022055
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
451 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
QUICK UPDATE TO ZNS TO ADD CHC POPS ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF VT BASED ON CRNT RADAR AND OBS. CRNT OBS SHOW MSS
WITH -RA AND NW AT 15 WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
SFC INSTABILITY AND 5H VORT HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE
OF -RW ACRS THE SLV ATTM. RADAR SHOWS THIS LINE FROM NEAR MSS TO
CHIPPEWA BAY WITH GENERAL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DWPT OF 52F AT BTV AND DRY SW DOWNSLOPING FLW ACRS
THE CPV EXPECT LINE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BTV AREA. WL
JUST MENTION SCHC POPS AT BTV. ALSO...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...BASED ON WINDS DECOUPLING AND CLRING
SKIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 319 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2005)

SYNOPSIS...
WK TROF/CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA INTO THIS EVENING. HI PRESS TO BUILD
ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SAT THRU SUN AND THEN ACRS THE FA ON
SUN NITE AND MON. UPR TROF TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACRS THE FA ON
SAT AFTERNOON THRU MON.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO LINGER ACRS THE FA THROUGH
EARLY ON SAT NITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON
SAT AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE NRN TIER ZONES EARLY
TONITE AND ON SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA TONITE
AND ON SAT LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.75"...THEN DROP TO AROUND 0.5" ON
SAT NITE. CAPES ACRS THE FA ON SAT TO BE AOB 200 J/KG.

88D MOSAIC SHOWS JUST A FEW LT RETURNS ACRS A FEW PORTIONS OF THE NRN
TIER ZONES ATTM...WITH SOME MORE ORGANIZED MOSTLY -SHRA UP ACRS SRN
CANADA. LAPS SHOWS LOW-LVLS ACRS THE FA APPEAR TO BE PRETTY DRY
ATTM...SO WILL OPT TO MOSTLY HANDLE ANY SPRINKLES WITH THE STF THIS
EVENING AND JUST HANG ONTO SOME SCHC POPS UP ACRS MUCH OF NE/NC VT
EARLY TONITE.

THE GOING FCST OF MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY UP ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES AGAIN...STILL LOOKS GOOD ATTM. DRY
WX EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD...WITH THE LEAST
AMT OF CLDS EXPECTED ACRS THE FA BY MON. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S
ON SAT AND IN THE L-M60S ON SUN. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S ON
SAT NITE.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 PM.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE
GONE WITH ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES TO CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG FORMING IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS WELL AS THE VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS ...BETWEEN 06Z-08Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TABER









FXUS61 KBTV 021919
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
WK TROF/CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA INTO THIS EVENING. HI PRESS TO BUILD
ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SAT THRU SUN AND THEN ACRS THE FA ON
SUN NITE AND MON. UPR TROF TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACRS THE FA ON
SAT AFTERNOON THRU MON.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO LINGER ACRS THE FA THROUGH
EARLY ON SAT NITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON
SAT AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE NRN TIER ZONES EARLY
TONITE AND ON SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA TONITE
AND ON SAT LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.75"...THEN DROP TO AROUND 0.5" ON
SAT NITE. CAPES ACRS THE FA ON SAT TO BE AOB 200 J/KG.

88D MOSAIC SHOWS JUST A FEW LT RETURNS ACRS A FEW PORTIONS OF THE NRN
TIER ZONES ATTM...WITH SOME MORE ORGANIZED MOSTLY -SHRA UP ACRS SRN
CANADA. LAPS SHOWS LOW-LVLS ACRS THE FA APPEAR TO BE PRETTY DRY
ATTM...SO WILL OPT TO MOSTLY HANDLE ANY SPRINKLES WITH THE STF THIS
EVENING AND JUST HANG ONTO SOME SCHC POPS UP ACRS MUCH OF NE/NC VT
EARLY TONITE.

THE GOING FCST OF MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY UP ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES AGAIN...STILL LOOKS GOOD ATTM. DRY
WX EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD...WITH THE LEAST
AMT OF CLDS EXPECTED ACRS THE FA BY MON. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S
ON SAT AND IN THE L-M60S ON SUN. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S ON
SAT NITE.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 PM.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE
GONE WITH ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES TO CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG FORMING IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS WELL AS THE VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS ...BETWEEN 06Z-08Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z ON SATURDAY.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...MURRAY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...WGH




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

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   server.
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References

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