Expires:200509072130;;793439
FPUS51 KBTV 070701
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
301 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-072130-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
301 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY DENSE FOG UNTIL MID MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLEARING. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
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FXUS61 KBTV 070623
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
223 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. OUR STRING OF CLOUDLESS SKIES WILL
COME TO AN END AS WELL WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH AND SOME
CIRRUS SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ONLY
TWEAKED THE TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUT GENERAL TREND OF CHC SHOWERS ARRIVING IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT...THEN SPREADING AND ENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...GUIDANCE VALUES FAIRLY CLOSE...EXCEPT GFS GUIDANCE 5
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER GFS
TEMPS THURS NIGHT LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN COOLING 850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
NO CHANGES TO LONG TERM PORTION OF FORECAST. UPPER LOW TAKES ITS
TIME MOVING OUT OF REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN AT THE SURFACE. LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOL HIGH WILL BRING
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO REGION. BY MONDAY RIDGE TRIES TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES THRU THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE...AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
ALL SITES VFR XCEPT 06Z-13Z IFR TO LIFR IN FG AT KSLK/KMPV AND IFR
AT KMSS...AFT 12Z VFR COND W/ S SW WINDS. FEW-SCT HIGH CLD WORKS
OVER REGION FROM WEST. NO PRECIP. AFT 00Z WINDS BECOME LGT FROM SW
W/ IFR IN FG AT KSLK/KMPV. MID CLD DECK BUILDS EAST W/ APPROACH OF
WK FRNT. KMSS/KSLK WILL BEGIN TO SEE THIS CLD LAYER WORKING OVER
REGION...BUT WILL BE SCT AT MOST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...JN








FXUS61 KBTV 070125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS ARE LIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL...SO NO
UPDATES TO THE ZONE FORECASTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 400 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THIS
FCST...BUT THEY DIGRESS AS WE MOVE INTO THURS/FRI. HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO GFS SOLUTION REGARDING FROPA THURS...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO
FCST THAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING.

LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WX THRU WED.
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WED...ALLOWING
FOR A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR ACRS RGN...RESULTING IN WARMER
TEMPS AND SOMEWHAT HIR DWPTS. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM ONCE
AGAIN LATE TONITE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CLIMO PREFERRED RIVER VLYS OF
NC AND ERN VT AS WELL AS ADRNDKS. THE FOG WILL THEN BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING WED...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE EXPECTED. BASED
ON EXPECTED H8 TEMPS...HAVE GONE A BIT BELOW MAV TEMP GUID FOR WED.

CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG CDFNT WILL MOVE INTO FA LATER WED
NITE...ALG WITH CHC SHWRS NRN NY. CHC OF SHWRS ACRS ENTIRE FA
DURING THURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCD SHRTWV MOVE ACRS FA.
THE SFC FEATURE LINKED WITH SHRTWV ENERGY IS A PREFRONTAL TROF
WHICH MOVES THRU RGN BY EARLY-MID PM. ACTUAL CDFNT LAGS BEHIND...NOT
PUSHING THRU FA TILL THURS NITE. A RIBBON OF PW'S 1.25 - 1.5"
MOVES ACRS FA DURING THURS. HAVE CONTD WITH CHC POPS...BUT THESE MAY
NEED TO ADJUSTED UP AS EVENT NEARS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLD TSRA...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM. HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND OF MAV/NAM TEMPS FOR THURS.

EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCD DRIER AIR TO BUILD INTO FA ON FRIDAY
RESULTING IN PRTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
NO MAJOR CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST...AS LATEST OP/ENSEMBLE
RUNS STILL OFFERING PLENTY OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS REGION DURING
MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
STILL APPEARS ON TRACK DURING MONDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ONLY OTHER CHG WAS TO LOWER OVERNGT MIN
TEMPS FRI NT/SAT NT SOME 2-5 DEG DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ATOP REGION
AND OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ANTICIPATED.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
VFR CONDS AREA WIDE THROUGH ENTIRE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
VALLEY FOG BTWN 07-14Z WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE
REGIONAL WX CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG W/CLR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. PATCHY IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS IN BR/FG ACROSS FAVORED MTN/VALLEY
LOCALES SUCH AS KMPV/KSLK WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO
CONCERNS. AS HIGH SETTLES EAST OF REGION TOMORROW...LIGHT SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...ESP ALONG AND
WEST OF GREEN MTN SPINE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH









FXUS61 KBTV 062003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THIS
FCST...BUT THEY DIGRESS AS WE MOVE INTO THURS/FRI. HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO GFS SOLUTION REGARDING FROPA THURS...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO
FCST THAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING.

LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WX THRU WED.
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WED...ALLOWING
FOR A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR ACRS RGN...RESULTING IN WARMER
TEMPS AND SOMEWHAT HIR DWPTS. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM ONCE
AGAIN LATE TONITE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CLIMO PREFERRED RIVER VLYS OF
NC AND ERN VT AS WELL AS ADRNDKS. THE FOG WILL THEN BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING WED...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE EXPECTED. BASED
ON EXPECTED H8 TEMPS...HAVE GONE A BIT BELOW MAV TEMP GUID FOR WED.

CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG CDFNT WILL MOVE INTO FA LATER WED
NITE...ALG WITH CHC SHWRS NRN NY. CHC OF SHWRS ACRS ENTIRE FA
DURING THURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCD SHRTWV MOVE ACRS FA.
THE SFC FEATURE LINKED WITH SHRTWV ENERGY IS A PREFRONTAL TROF
WHICH MOVES THRU RGN BY EARLY-MID PM. ACTUAL CDFNT LAGS BEHIND...NOT
PUSHING THRU FA TILL THURS NITE. A RIBBON OF PW'S 1.25 - 1.5"
MOVES ACRS FA DURING THURS. HAVE CONTD WITH CHC POPS...BUT THESE MAY
NEED TO ADJUSTED UP AS EVENT NEARS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLD TSRA...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM. HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND OF MAV/NAM TEMPS FOR THURS.

EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCD DRIER AIR TO BUILD INTO FA ON FRIDAY
RESULTING IN PRTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
NO MAJOR CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST...AS LATEST OP/ENSEMBLE
RUNS STILL OFFERING PLENTY OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS REGION DURING
MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
STILL APPEARS ON TRACK DURING MONDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ONLY OTHER CHG WAS TO LOWER OVERNGT MIN
TEMPS FRI NT/SAT NT SOME 2-5 DEG DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ATOP REGION
AND OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
VFR CONDS AREA WIDE THROUGH ENTIRE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
VALLEY FOG BTWN 07-14Z WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE
REGIONAL WX CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG W/CLR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. PATCHY IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS IN BR/FG ACROSS FAVORED MTN/VALLEY
LOCALES SUCH AS KMPV/KSLK WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO
CONCERNS. AS HIGH SETTLES EAST OF REGION TOMORROW...LIGHT SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...ESP ALONG AND
WEST OF GREEN MTN SPINE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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