First off: Saranac Lake reports snow.

Last night this was the METAR from the Saranac Lake airport:
KSLK 200451Z AUTO 30009G14KT 270V330 10SM SCT011 BKN016 OVC022 02/01 A2985 
RMK AO2 UPE0353B11E51SNB22E32 SLP116 P0001 T00220006 401220017
                     ^^
Might not seem like much but alas it is the first official NWS snow 
observation in the northeast outside of Mount Washington (MWN).  SLK 
reported snow from 0422z till 0432z...its only 10 minutes, but hey I'll 
take it.  Snow levels got down to the 1,500-2000ft range last night so any 
reports of snow in the mountains/higher elevations are probably valid.

Second: Wilma
Wilma is still wandering around down between Mexico and Cuba.  She should 
hit somewhere in Florida, probably south of Tampa Bay.  Her being slower 
than forecasted is making me think she'll miss the trough connection but 
this trough will stick around for a couple days as more energy wraps 
around it.  If she misses the first connection, she'll likely get picked 
up the second go around.  The models are split into two camps with one 
camp bringing her through Florida then up the East Coast and making 
landfall anywhere from NYC to Cape Cod or just missing and swinging into 
New Brunswick.  The NOGAPS plows her into NYC on Monday or Tuesday.  EURO 
and GFS miss the first connection but catch the second one and have her 
swinging northward just off Cape Cod.  In all of these situations I do not 
believe she is a "tropical system" but rather a very strong low pressure 
system, as in a very strong nor'easter, since she'll probably loose her 
tropical characteristics.  The out to sea models are ones with less 
reputation and therefor not a lot of weight is being put on them.

Third: Significant Snowfall
We will still have one big rainmaker this weekend that would be the first 
low coming around the trough that Wilma will likely miss. 850mb (5,000ft) 
temps are borderline but may start below 0C with decent precipitation.  I 
could see another very high elevation snow event unfolding on the Rockpile 
and possibly down to 4,000ft.  Once that low moves away, it deepens the 
trough again and cold air pours into the northeast.  Wilma gets picked up 
by this deepening trough and comes north but likely stays off-shore 
passing east of Cape Cod as a strong nor'easter before plowing into either 
NW Maine or the Canadian maritimes.  Depending on this track, significant 
snowfall could be in the cards for the north country with cold air in 
place early next week.  Stay Tuned.

Fourth: First widespread freeze tonight across all of the north country.  
From BTV: "DECIDED TO BASICALLY END THE
GROWING SEASON ACRS OUR FA WITH A BLANKET FREEZE WARNING FOR TONITE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE IMMEDIATE LK CHAMP SHORELINE NOT GO
AOB 32F THOUGH."

And in their climo section...some interesting stats:
"  ABNORMALLY MILD AUTUMN AND OCTOBER DESPITE CLDS/RAIN SINCE 10/8.

SEPTEMBER '05 - 63.6 DEGS (+4.2 DEGS)
OCTOBER '05   - 55.9 DEGS (+6.1 DEGS)

THE FIRST 7 DAYS OF OCTOBER FEATURED ABUNDANT SS AND TMPS 10-15 DEGS
ABV NORMAL. ALTHOUGH IT/S BEEN CLOUDY/RAINY...ALL BUT TWO DAYS
(10/8-10/9) HAS AVERAGED ABV NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY MILD
NGTS.

THEREFORE...AS OF THIS MRNG (10/20)...WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HAS
BEEN LIMITED TO ESSEX CTY VT AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN CTY NY.
OTHERWISE...SCT FROST IN ADRNDKS/NC-NE VT. THIS IS 4-6 WEEKS LATER
THAN NORMAL IN THESE AREAS AND RUNNING 2-3 WEEKS LATER THAN NORMAL IN
CHMPL/ST LWRNC VLYS."

-Scott




  

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