On Thu, 20 Oct 2005 12:18:48 -0400, Rob Urwin <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

>On 10/20/05, Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
>> Third: Significant Snowfall
>> We will still have one big rainmaker this weekend that would be the 
first
>> low coming around the trough that Wilma will likely miss. 850mb 
(5,000ft)
>> temps are borderline but may start below 0C with decent precipitation.  
I
>> could see another very high elevation snow event unfolding on the 
Rockpile
>> and possibly down to 4,000ft.  Once that low moves away, it deepens the
>> trough again and cold air pours into the northeast.  Wilma gets picked 
up
>> by this deepening trough and comes north but likely stays off-shore
>> passing east of Cape Cod as a strong nor'easter before plowing into 
either
>> NW Maine or the Canadian maritimes.  Depending on this track, 
significant
>> snowfall could be in the cards for the north country with cold air in
>> place early next week.  Stay Tuned.
>
>Ballsy call.  850's look really marginal and the moisture doesn't push
>very far west of the 0C line.  Although yesterday's 0Z run looked to
>have a pretty impressive precip shield.  I haven't looked at the 700mb
>charts though, maybe there is a lot of vertical that could push the
>snow level down...

I think the first storm this weekend sees some more significant snowfall 
on top of the Rockpile.  Wilma or her remains, will track east of the 
region.  I'm not calling for significant snowfall below at the very most 
4,000ft with the first system this weekend.  Wilma or her remains might 
have some significant snowfall depending on how far off-shore she tracks.  
I do think that there is a very good chance if she tracks close enough as 
850's drop to -2 or -3 just to the east of the storm track.  The problem, 
as you said it, is the lack of precipitation on the western side of the 
storm.  However, I have a hunch as the event nears, her precip shield 
might spread out more in typical nor'easter fashion.

-Scott

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