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October 2005, Week 3

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Subject:
Re: Weather Stuff (Saranac Lake first official snow ob, Wilma, Sig Snowfall)
From:
Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Fri, 21 Oct 2005 14:46:33 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (49 lines)
I just checked both 12z ETA/NAM and 12z GFS and both show significant 
elevation snowfall on Sunday.  I looked at the 12z NAM up close with the 
BTV 5km grid and 850mb temps look good through 48hrs.  It has 850's of 0 
to -3 across most of the north country and snow levels are not that high 
at all...maybe 2,000ft in the Adirondacks and Greens possibly lower.  NAM 
has precip type in the mountains as being in the form of frozen precip in 
the grids.  GFS has a similar solution with a low pressure system tracking 
from NYC to BOS keeping BTV area in cold air region.  Total precip on both 
models is between .75 and 1.5".  I do infact believe that the 12z models 
show skiable snowfall in the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains.

I'll be out of town from this afternoon through Sunday but will try to do 
quick updates if it appears likely.  Stay tuned to the NWS in Burlington 
and read their discussions to get the real information.

-Scott  

On Fri, 21 Oct 2005 14:09:08 -0400, Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

>Yep.  Wilma will likely still move along the front on the eastern edge of
>the trough early next week, but by then it'll be further out to sea.
>Still energy roating around the trough after the Sunday event as depicted
>by the 500mb charts...I think that should pick up Wilma or whatever is
>left of her.  That system is entirely different, like you said, but could
>throw some moisture back into at least eastern Northern New England in the
>form of snow.  I still think moisture will spread further west of the
>track than models currently show once this thing opens up and loses
>tropical characteristics.  One of this mornings (00z or 06z) GFS runs
>showed this a little.
>
>But for Sunday, GFS has been constantly tracking the low southeast of the
>north country possibly keeping 850's temps below freezing in the 'Dacks.
>Still could be some higher elevation snows this weekend...with chances
>shifting towards the east in NH and ME through the middle of next week
>depending on what happens with Wilma.
>
>-Scott
>
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