Expires:200510172115;;703371
FPUS51 KBTV 170737
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005


VTZ006-008-016>018-172115-
LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
337 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

.TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE. HIGHS 45 TO 50. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE. LOWS 
AROUND 40. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...
BECOMING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO 
MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE 
AFTERNOON. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
40 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 170635
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
235 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND CONTINUING NW UPSLOPE
/WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION TODAY AND ASSOC FLOODING ACROSS SCATTERED
NORTHERN WATERSHEDS. LATEST SYNOPTIC MAP/REGIONAL SFC OBS CONTINUE
TO TO DEEP OCCLUDED 979 HPA LOW OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES DUMBELLING
SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS MORNING. PRONOUNCED AND LONG DURATION WRAP
AROUND/UPSLOPE PRECIP HAS CONTINUED FOR OVER 24 HOURS ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF FA...AND LOOKING AT LATEST WV/IR IMAGERY SEE NO REASON
FOR THIS TO ABATE AS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THESE SAME AREAS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING AND PULLING SLOWLY EAST. THUS HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO METS
HIGHER POPS/COOLER TEMPS TODAY. AREA FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SYNOPTIC
INVERSION NEAR 900 HPA...THUS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH A FEW PEAKS OF
SUN POSSIBLE TOWARDS EVENING HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
NIGHTTIME IR/FOG IMAGERY.

RESPITE FROM INCLEMENT CONDS ONLY BRIEF TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS SOUTH OF REGION. LATEST OPERATIONAL PROGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE TWO ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS AFFECTING AREA OVER COURSE OF
NEXT 4 DAYS...BOTH OF WHICH DIVE SE ACROSS AREA AND THEN ROTATE
EASTWARD INTO BASE OF DEEP POLAR VORTEX ACROSS ERN CANADA. FIRST
SHORTWAVE FEATURE TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN ZONES BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND ACROSS ENTIRE FA DURING TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
CHC/LIKELY POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHEST THREAT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN ZONES DURING TUE. AFTER PC AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDS TUE
NT...SECONDARY AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE THEN AFFECTS AREA BY WED TIME
FRAME. MORE IMPRESSIVE 850-700 HPA WAA/JET DYNAMICS/BAROCLINICITY
ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL INTRODUCE DECENT CHC POPS HERE.
INITIAL BNDRY LYR TEMP PROFILES SOMEWHAT MIXED DEPENDING ON MODEL
OF CHOICE...WITH COLDER ETA PROFILES SUGGESTING SOME MIXED PRECIP
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEV/NE VT AT ONSET. AT THIS TIME WILL OFFER
ALL LIQUID AND CLOSER TO GFS SOLN.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MAINLY DRY CONDS LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. NEXT DECENT RAIN CHC OCCURS FRIDAY NT AND PERSISTS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING SFC LOW PUSHES NE ACROSS AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 FEET AND 3500 FEET.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS
LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL VERMONT.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...EXPECT
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR VISIBILITY WILL EXIST
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z.  WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...BUT
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHORT TERM HYDROLOGY CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS SOME NORTHERN
WATERSHEDS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
MAIN TWO AREAS OF CONCERN LIE ALONG THE MISSISSQUOI AND PASSUMPSIC
BASINS...WHERE SOME GAGES NEARING OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IF RISES
CONTINUE ALONG REACHES OF MISSISSQUOI...FLOOD WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. OTHER MINOR FIELD FLOODING/LOW IMPACT SECONDARY
ROAD FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAD AND
LAMOILLE RIVERS...THOUGH AGAIN THIS SHOULD BE MINOR. SEE FLSBTV FOR
MORE SPECIFIC RIVER/FLOOD INFORMATION.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...EVENSON
HYDROLOGY...JMG/EVENSON









FXUS61 KBTV 170109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
901 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP WORDING FOR OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. WINDY DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH SEVERAL
UTILITY COMPANIES REPORTING TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE IN VERMONT AND NEW
YORK. WINDS STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS
EARLIER TODAY (SEE LATEST PNS FOR MAX WIND GUSTS). RADAR TRENDS
INICATE RAIN TAPERING OFF IN THE VALLEYS WITH GOOD UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
REMAINING ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. OBSERVER ATOP
MOUNT MANSFIELD REPORTS TEMPERATURE AROUND 34F LAST HOUR AND
DROPPING...THUS EXPECT UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH
SOME SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET TONIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD MOST OF THIS COVERED...ONLY UPDATE WAS TO POPS
REALLY. OVERNIGHT MINS AND WINDS LOOK GOOD SO NO CHANGES MADE. STILL
YET ANOTHER WINDY DAY ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...WITH POSSIBLY MORE TREE
DAMAGE AND CONTINUED POWER OUTAGES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 335 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005)

SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTING NE AS CYCLONIC
NW FLOW CONTS ACRS OUR FA. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LOCATED IN CENTRAL
CANADA AND WL IMPACT FA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC
UPSLOPE FLW AND PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND LLVL MOISTURE HAS CREATED A
PERIOD OF PROLONGED UPSLOPE PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS. STP PRECIP AND SPOTTERS REPORT NEW
RAINFALL SINCE THIS MORNING BTWN A 0.25 AND 0.75 OF AN INCH WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1.0" IN WORCESTER. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SMALL
STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR POTENTIAL PROBLEMS. SEE LATEST FLSBTV
CONCERNING POTENTIAL RIVER PROBLEMS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT.

THE PERSIST LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAVE LIMITED THERMAL HEATING
TODAY...AS A RESULT WINDS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES MIXING FROM ALOFT
DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR. CXX VAD SHOWS 35-40KNTS AT FIRST GATE AND
50-55KTS AT SECOND GATE...BUT SFC WINDS OF ONLY 30 TO 40
MPH...THEREFORE WL DROP WARNING WITH THIS UPDATE. LOCAL ELECTRIC
COMPANIES HAVE REPORTED NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES WITH MANY REPORTS OF
POWER OUTAGES ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF DACKS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. SEE LSRBTV FOR
LATEST INFO. HOWEVER...ALL SFC OBS SHOWS WINDS WELL BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ATTM.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE PRES GRADIENT
SLOWLY WEAKENS ACRS OUR FA. GIVEN...SFC WINDS OF ONLY 30 TO 40 MPH
AND COOLING TAKING PLACE TONIGHT AND 85/925MB WINDS WEAKENING WL
DROP WIND HIGHLIGHT. UPSLOPE FLW WL CONT INTO MONDAY...BUT DEPTH OF
MOISTURE DECREASES...THEREFORE EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO
DECREASE BY 12Z MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS MTN ZNS TO
CHC VALLEYS TO SCHC SLV/SVT. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE BTWN 0.20-0.40
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR JAY PEAK. THERMAL PROFILE BECOMES
COLD ENOUGH AFTER 06Z TONIGHT TO SUPPORT SNOW ABOVE 2000FT. EXPECT
MTN TOPS TO BE WHITE MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRACE TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE. ALREADY SNOWING ATOP MOUNT WASHINGTON.

MONDAY...CYCLONIC NW UPSLOPE FLW CONTINUES...BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE
IS DECREASING...THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN. WL TREND
SKY GRIDS FROM SW TO NE WITH BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING THE SUN
ACRS SLV AND SVT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 2C SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER
50S VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 MTNS.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF NEXT S/W ENERGY
OVER CENTRAL CANADA. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS AS GOOD
MOISTURE/LIFT SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA WITH THIS
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. EXPECTED QPF WL UNDER 0.25" AND NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 4C WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE 60S...BUT WITH CLOUDS WL ADJUST DOWNWARD.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHICH WL
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE STAYS ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA...THEREFORE WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

LONG TERM (WED NGT-SUN)...

LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND DAY 5 AS MDLS DIFFER ON FOUR CORNERS S/W AND
INTERACTION WITH NRN STREAM FOR EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE OF ERN CONUS
TROF. A FLATTER...FASTER SOLN WL LKLY NOT IMPACT PSBL FUTURE OF HRCN
WILMA. MEANWHILE...MORE AMPLITUDE SOLN WUD BE SLOWER...LKLY
INFLUENCE WILMA N THEN PSBLY INTERACT WITH CD FNT MVG ACRS NE
CONUS.

ATTM...MDL CONSISTENCY AND ESP GFS CONSISTENCY AMONGST ITSELF BTWN
00-06-12Z RUNS MAKE ANY SOLN PSBL AND CONFIDENCE LOW.

IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS ALG CNDN BDR WITH TRAILING CD
FNT MVG ACRS FA WED NGT DELIVERING SOME COLDER AIR AND PSBL SHRA.
CNDN SFC HIGH RIDGES SE INTO FA THU-THU NGT-ERLY FRI FOR PSBL
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE ACRS MUCH OF FA.

THEREAFTER...AFOREMENTIONED FOUR CORNERS S/W...SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD
FA LATE FRI AND THEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ABT AMPLITUDE/SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM MVG THRU FA. ATTM...HPC HAS SLOW PROGRESSION SAT AND EXITING
SUN AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. ENUF CD AIR PSBL ON TAIL END FOR CHC
-SHRA/-SHSN.

AVIATION...
WRAPARD PCPN FM NEW BRUNSWICK LOW ADVECTING SW DOWN ST LWRNC VLY
INTO FA WITH WNW FLOW FOCUSING IT ALL ALG WRN SLOPES OF ADRNDKS/GRN
MTNS. VFR-MVFR CONDS THRU PERIOD WITH -SHRA MAINLY THRU 12Z ACRS
MTNS IN THE VCNTY OF KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAHIFF









FXUS61 KBTV 161936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTING NE AS CYCLONIC
NW FLOW CONTS ACRS OUR FA. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LOCATED IN CENTRAL
CANADA AND WL IMPACT FA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC
UPSLOPE FLW AND PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND LLVL MOISTURE HAS CREATED A
PERIOD OF PROLONGED UPSLOPE PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS. STP PRECIP AND SPOTTERS REPORT NEW
RAINFALL SINCE THIS MORNING BTWN A 0.25 AND 0.75 OF AN INCH WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1.0" IN WORCESTER. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SMALL
STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR POTENTIAL PROBLEMS. SEE LATEST FLSBTV
CONCERNING POTENTIAL RIVER PROBLEMS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT.

THE PERSIST LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAVE LIMITED THERMAL HEATING
TODAY...AS A RESULT WINDS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES MIXING FROM ALOFT
DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR. CXX VAD SHOWS 35-40KNTS AT FIRST GATE AND
50-55KTS AT SECOND GATE...BUT SFC WINDS OF ONLY 30 TO 40
MPH...THEREFORE WL DROP WARNING WITH THIS UPDATE. LOCAL ELECTRIC
COMPANIES HAVE REPORTED NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES WITH MANY REPORTS OF
POWER OUTAGES ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF DACKS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. SEE LSRBTV FOR
LATEST INFO. HOWEVER...ALL SFC OBS SHOWS WINDS WELL BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE PRES GRADIENT
SLOWLY WEAKENS ACRS OUR FA. GIVEN...SFC WINDS OF ONLY 30 TO 40 MPH
AND COOLING TAKING PLACE TONIGHT AND 85/925MB WINDS WEAKENING WL
DROP WIND HIGHLIGHT. UPSLOPE FLW WL CONT INTO MONDAY...BUT DEPTH OF
MOISTURE DECREASES...THEREFORE EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO
DECREASE BY 12Z MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS MTN ZNS TO
CHC VALLEYS TO SCHC SLV/SVT. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE BTWN 0.20-0.40
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR JAY PEAK. THERMAL PROFILE BECOMES
COLD ENOUGH AFTER 06Z TONIGHT TO SUPPORT SNOW ABOVE 2000FT. EXPECT
MTN TOPS TO BE WHITE MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRACE TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE. ALREADY SNOWING ATOP MOUNT WASHINGTON.

MONDAY...CYCLONIC NW UPSLOPE FLW CONTINUES...BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE
IS DECREASING...THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN. WL TREND
SKY GRIDS FROM SW TO NE WITH BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING THE SUN
ACRS SLV AND SVT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 2C SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER
50S VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 MTNS.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF NEXT S/W ENERGY
OVER CENTRAL CANADA. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS AS GOOD
MOISTURE/LIFT SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA WITH THIS
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. EXPECTED QPF WL UNDER 0.25" AND NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 4C WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE 60S...BUT WITH CLOUDS WL ADJUST DOWNWARD.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHICH WL
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE STAYS ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA...THEREFORE WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

LONG TERM (WED NGT-SUN)...

LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND DAY 5 AS MDLS DIFFER ON FOUR CORNERS S/W AND
INTERACTION WITH NRN STREAM FOR EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE OF ERN CONUS
TROF. A FLATTER...FASTER SOLN WL LKLY NOT IMPACT PSBL FUTURE OF HRCN
WILMA. MEANWHILE...MORE AMPLITUDE SOLN WUD BE SLOWER...LKLY
INFLUENCE WILMA N THEN PSBLY INTERACT WITH CD FNT MVG ACRS NE
CONUS.

ATTM...MDL CONSISTENCY AND ESP GFS CONSISTENCY AMONGST ITSELF BTWN
00-06-12Z RUNS MAKE ANY SOLN PSBL AND CONFIDENCE LOW.

IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS ALG CNDN BDR WITH TRAILING CD
FNT MVG ACRS FA WED NGT DELIVERING SOME COLDER AIR AND PSBL SHRA.
CNDN SFC HIGH RIDGES SE INTO FA THU-THU NGT-ERLY FRI FOR PSBL
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE ACRS MUCH OF FA.

THEREAFTER...AFOREMENTIONED FOUR CORNERS S/W...SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD
FA LATE FRI AND THEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ABT AMPLITUDE/SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM MVG THRU FA. ATTM...HPC HAS SLOW PROGRESSION SAT AND EXITING
SUN AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. ENUF CD AIR PSBL ON TAIL END FOR CHC
-SHRA/-SHSN.

&&

.AVIATION...
WRAPARD PCPN FM NEW BRUNSWICK LOW ADVECTING SW DOWN ST LWRNC VLY
INTO FA WITH WNW FLOW FOCUSING IT ALL ALG WRN SLOPES OF ADRNDKS/GRN
MTNS. VFR-MVFR CONDS THRU PERIOD WITH -SHRA MAINLY THRU 12Z ACRS
MTNS IN THE VCNTY OF KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW











FXUS61 KBTV 161933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTING NE AS CYCLONIC
NW FLOW CONTS ACRS OUR FA. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LOCATED IN CENTRAL
CANADA AND WL IMPACT FA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC
UPSLOPE FLW AND PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND LLVL MOISTURE HAS CREATED A
PERIOD OF PROLONGED UPSLOPE PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS. STP PRECIP AND SPOTTERS REPORT NEW
RAINFALL SINCE THIS MORNING BTWN A 0.25 AND 0.75 OF AN INCH WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1.0" IN WORCESTER. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SMALL
STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR POTENTIAL PROBLEMS. SEE LATEST FLSBTV
CONCERNING POTENTIAL RIVER PROBLEMS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT.

THE PERSIST LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAVE LIMITED THERMAL HEATING
TODAY...AS A RESULT WINDS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES MIXING FROM ALOFT
DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR. CXX VAD SHOWS 35-40KNTS AT FIRST GATE AND
50-55KTS AT SECOND GATE...BUT SFC WINDS OF ONLY 30 TO 40
MPH...THEREFORE WL DROP WARNING WITH THIS UPDATE. LOCAL ELECTRIC
COMPANIES HAVE REPORTED NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES WITH MANY REPORTS OF
POWER OUTAGES ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF DACKS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. SEE LSRBTV FOR
LATEST INFO. HOWEVER...ALL SFC OBS SHOWS WINDS WELL BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE PRES GRADIENT
SLOWLY WEAKENS ACRS OUR FA. GIVEN...SFC WINDS OF ONLY 30 TO 40 MPH
AND COOLING TAKING PLACE TONIGHT AND 85/925MB WINDS WEAKENING WL
DROP WIND HIGHLIGHT. UPSLOPE FLW WL CONT INTO MONDAY...BUT DEPTH OF
MOISTURE DECREASES...THEREFORE EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO
DECREASE BY 12Z MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS MTN ZNS TO
CHC VALLEYS TO SCHC SLV/SVT. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE BTWN 0.20-0.40
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR JAY PEAK. THERMAL PROFILE BECOMES
COLD ENOUGH AFTER 06Z TONIGHT TO SUPPORT SNOW ABOVE 2000FT. EXPECT
MTN TOPS TO BE WHITE MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRACE TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE. ALREADY SNOWING ATOP MOUNT WASHINGTON.

MONDAY...CYCLONIC NW UPSLOPE FLW CONTINUES...BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE
IS DECREASING...THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN. WL TREND
SKY GRIDS FROM SW TO NE WITH BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING THE SUN
ACRS SLV AND SVT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 2C SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER
50S VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 MTNS.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF NEXT S/W ENERGY
OVER CENTRAL CANADA. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS AS GOOD
MOISTURE/LIFT SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA WITH THIS
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. EXPECTED QPF WL UNDER 0.25" AND NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 4C WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE 60S...BUT WITH CLOUDS WL ADJUST DOWNWARD.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHICH WL
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE STAYS ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA...THEREFORE WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

LONG TERM (WED NGT-SUN)...

LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND DAY 5 AS MDLS DIFFER ON FOUR CORNERS S/W AND
INTERACTION WITH NRN STREAM FOR EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE OF ERN CONUS
TROF. A FLATTER...FASTER SOLN WL LKLY NOT IMPACT PSBL FUTURE OF HRCN
WILMA. MEANWHILE...MORE AMPLITUDE SOLN WUD BE SLOWER...LKLY
INFLUENCE WILMA N THEN PSBLY INTERACT WITH CD FNT MVG ACRS NE
CONUS.

ATTM...MDL CONSISTENCY AND ESP GFS CONSISTENCY AMONGST ITSELF BTWN
00-06-12Z RUNS MAKE ANY SOLN PSBL AND CONFIDENCE LOW.

IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS ALG CNDN BDR WITH TRAILING CD
FNT MVG ACRS FA WED NGT DELIVERING SOME COLDER AIR AND PSBL SHRA.
CNDN SFC HIGH RIDGES SE INTO FA THU-THU NGT-ERLY FRI FOR PSBL
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE ACRS MUCH OF FA.

THEREAFTER...AFOREMENTIONED FOUR CORNERS S/W...SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD
FA LATE FRI AND THEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ABT AMPLITUDE/SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM MVG THRU FA. ATTM...HPC HAS SLOW PROGRESSION SAT AND EXITING
SUN AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. ENUF CD AIR PSBL ON TAIL END FOR CHC
-SHRA/-SHSN.

&&

.AVIATION...
WRAPARD PCPN FM NEW BRUNSWICK LOW ADVECTING SW DOWN ST LWRNC VLY
INTO FA WITH WNW FLOW FOCUSING IT ALL ALG WRN SLOPES OF ADRNDKS/GRN
MTNS. VFR-MVFR CONDS THRU PERIOD WITH -SHRA MAINLY THRU 12Z ACRS
MTNS IN THE VCNTY OF KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE
.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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