Expires:200510182115;;724851
FPUS51 KBTV 180723
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005


VTZ006-016-017-182115-
LAMOILLE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL
322 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

.TODAY...CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY THIS MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT SOUTHWEST 
WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
LIGHT WEST WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 180639
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
239 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MAIN SHORT TERM WX HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF INCLEMENT WX
CONDS TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN DURING WED/WED EVE TIME FRAMES. LATEST
SYNOPTIC MAP SHOWING DECENT SHORTWAVE STRETCHED VORTICITY INVOF
GEORGIAN BAY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DROP SE TOWARDS NRN NEW
ENGLAND. DECENT SWATH OF PRECIP NOW ENTERING NRN YORK ASSOC WITH 850
WAA AND ENHANCED UVM IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID TO UPPER LVL JET AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 290-300K LVL. AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES SE ACROSS
AREA TODAY EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF FA. BEST PRECIP
THREAT TO OCCUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF TOWARDS MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS BEST FORCING EXITS EAST. AS A RESULT WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER
TO CHC THEREAFTER. QPF SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AS SYSTEM A QUICK
MOVER...WITH GENERAL AMTS EXPECTED BTWN 0.10 AND 0.40 INCHES.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A FEW MTN
SHOWERS ENHANCED BY MESOSCALE OROGRAPHIC FLOW...BUT MOST AREAS TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVRNT HOURS. SOME DEBATE AS HOW MUCH CLEARING
WILL TAKE PLACE AND WILL GO A TAD ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AND
ADVERTISE PTLY CLOUDY CONDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY WEST. HOWEVER
OPERATIONAL SOUNDING PROFILES SHOWING PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVERNGHT BENEATH SYNOPTIC INVERSION NEAR 850 HPA...THUS
MOST AREAS MAY REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT...ESP VT. NEXT SHORTAVE THEN
TAKES SIMILAR TRACK TO TODAYS SYSTEM DURING WED/WED EVE TIME FRAME
AND ENTERS BASE OF SEMI-PERMANENT THOUGH WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX
ACROSS ERN CANADA. ONCE AGAIN GOOD MID TO UPPER LVL JET DYNAMICS AND
MID LVL WAA PATTERN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS AREA ALONG W/ENHANCED
BAROCLINICITY. THUS WILL ADVERTISE HI CHC/LIKELY POPS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...AND TRANSITION HIGHER ELEVATION TO MIXED P-TYPE
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO REGION. ONLY MINOR
ACCUM EXPECTED HOWEVER.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. LATEST
OPERATIONAL PROGS STILL ON BOARD WITH PRIOR RUNS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE
AND LARGE POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM NRN CANADIAN
PROVINCES INTO GREAT LAKES/ERN STATES TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTIONS. HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN FCST...BUT A QUICK LOOK AT MEAN ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FORECASTS
INDICATING LG STD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO WITH THIS FEATURE.
CONSIDERING POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION...EVOLVING
SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS
WEEK WEARS ON.
&&

.AVIATION...
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
00Z TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT BRIEFLY
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.  CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN
2000 AND 4000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH THROUGH ABOUT 20Z...THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ASSOC TRIBUTARIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL
FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PAST 3 DAYS. MISSISSQUOI RIVER
AT E. BERKSHIRE REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BUT EXPECT THIS TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD BY SUNRISE. THUS ANY REMAINING THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH COURSE OF DAY. SEE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MORE
SPECIFICS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...EVENSON
HYDROLOGY...JMG/EVENSON









FXUS61 KBTV 180218
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1018 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS SENT OUT WITH JUST A COUPLE OF MINOR FIRST
PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT ENDED IN NC/NE
VT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN IN THESES ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SKIES HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED IN ST LWR VLY AND IN CHMPLN VLY OF
NY...ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE MAINLY CLDY. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO REMAIN
IN NC/NE VT OVRNGHT...AND FOR CLDS TO RETURN TO THOSE AREAS THAT
HAVE SEEN SOME CLRNG THIS EVENING. SHWRS ASSOCD WITH NEXT SYSTEM
APRCHG FROM GRTLKS WILL BE ARRIVING LATE TONITE IN NRN NY AND TUES
AM IN VT. GOING FCST HAS THIS COVERED. NO CHANGE TO MIN TEMP FCSTS
FOR TONITE...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 220 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005)

SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING ACRS EASTERN CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DRYING NOTED ACRS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY ATTM.
MEANWHILE...NEXT POTENT 5H VORT IS RACING ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ATTM AND WL BE INTO OUR FA BY TUESDAY. SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
NOTED WITH THIS WAVE ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY.

OTHERWISE...VIS SAT PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE DACKS AND WESTERN GREEN MTNS. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE
DRYING HAS HELPED TO CLR SKIES ACRS THE SOUTHERN CPV AND CT RIVER
VALLEYS AT THIS. TEMPS ARE IN THE L40S MTNS TO MID 50S LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY.

QUICK LOOK AT RIVER GAUGES ACRS FA SHOW MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND
EXPECT THEM TO RECEDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE LATEST
FLSBTV FOR STAGES AND IMPACTS.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
S/W ENERGY ACRS THE GREAT LAKES ATTM WL BE INTO OUR WESTERN FA BY
12Z TUES AND THRU CWA BY WEDS. CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
WITH LIMITED RIDGING AHEAD OF WAVE...THEREFORE EXPECT CWA TO
REMAIN ON COOL SIDE OF SYSTEM WITH SFC LOW PRES HAVING LIMITED
WAA. HOWEVER...BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR AND 850-500MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE FIELDS OF THE GFS WL MENTION CHCS AFT 06Z FOR WESTERN
FA AND LIKELY TO CAT POPS FOR TUESDAY ENTIRE FA. HOWEVER...SYSTEM
HAS LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECT QPF UNDER A 0.25...WHICH WL NOT
CAUSE ANY MORE PROBLEMS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
BTWN 2-4C ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 40S MTNS TO L/M50S VALLEYS.

WEDS...ANOTHER 5H VORT PASSES ACRS OUR FA ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT. GIVEN...7H MOISTURE/LIFT PROGGES WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS
ATTM WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO L50S. ONCE AGAIN QPF WL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY UNDER A 0.25 OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY...LLVL CAA CONTINUES BEHIND WEAK SFC FRNT AND DEPTH OF LLVL
MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES. HOWEVER...GIVEN FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS
AND LLVL UPSLOPE FLW WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACRS MTN ZNS. THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS MTNS WL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NITE.
BY FRIDAY WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FA AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUN
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM (THU NGT-MON)...
MED-LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONSENSUS THAN YDY AND LEADING TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE...BUT STL SOME DFRNCS AND AS THEY SAY..."TIMING
IS EVERYTHING". ALRDY...WE'RE WITNESSING A KNOWN PRBLM AREA...TIMING
OF FOUR CORNERS S/W (SYSTEM) EJECTING INTO PLAINS. ATTM...SLOWER
THAN ERLR FCSTS AND THAT MEANS A DELAY IN ARRIVING ACRS OUR FA AND A
DELAY IN INFLUENCING "WILMA" ACRS GULF AS TPC/HPC DISCUSSIONS HAVE
INDICATED.

THIS DELAY IN FOUR CORNERS SYSTEM WL MEAN A DELAY IN THE SFC WAVE
MVG ACRS FA LATE SAT/SUN AND THE EXTENT OF PHASING AND PSBL
INTERACTION WITH WILMA WL DETERMINE HOW WET OR WHITE FOR MON BUT
LKLY STL INCLEMENT. THERE'S STL ??? ABT AMT OF PHASING AND IMPACT
LATE WKND/ERLY NXT WEEK WITH WILMA AND PSBL SNOW IN N CNTRY. IN THE
MEANTIME...STAY TUNED.

SOME DRY WX FOR THU/FRI WITH CNDN HIGH BUT ALSO A WIDESPREAD FROST/
FREEZE MAY FINALLY BE IN THE CARDS FRI MRNG...SOME 3-6 WEEKS LATER
THAN AVERAGE.

PLEASE...FOLLOW TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES/
FORECASTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON WILMA.

AVIATION...
WRAPARD MOISTURE HAS DEPARTED AND GENERALLY UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE CONDS
ACRS FA THIS AFTN/EVE WITH BINOVC AND CONTD CLRG AT KBTV/KMSS WITH
GRTST CLDS AT KMPV/KSLK. VFR CONDS DVLPG FOR MOST-ALL OF FA BY
00-02Z AHD OF FAST MVG CLIPPER FOR TUES MRNG. THERE'S PSBLTY OF SOME
FOG TNGT FOR MVFR AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK-KMPV BTWN 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$










FXUS61 KBTV 171817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
220 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING ACRS EASTERN CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DRYING NOTED ACRS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY ATTM.
MEANWHILE...NEXT POTENT 5H VORT IS RACING ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ATTM AND WL BE INTO OUR FA BY TUESDAY. SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
NOTED WITH THIS WAVE ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY.

OTHERWISE...VIS SAT PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE DACKS AND WESTERN GREEN MTNS. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE
DRYING HAS HELPED TO CLR SKIES ACRS THE SOUTHERN CPV AND CT RIVER
VALLEYS AT THIS. TEMPS ARE IN THE L40S MTNS TO MID 50S LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY.

QUICK LOOK AT RIVER GAUGES ACRS FA SHOW MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND
EXPECT THEM TO RECEDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE LATEST
FLSBTV FOR STAGES AND IMPACTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
S/W ENERGY ACRS THE GREAT LAKES ATTM WL BE INTO OUR WESTERN FA BY
12Z
TUES AND THRU CWA BY WEDS. CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH
LIMITED RIDGING AHEAD OF WAVE...THEREFORE EXPECT CWA TO REMAIN ON
COOL SIDE OF SYSTEM WITH SFC LOW PRES HAVING LIMITED WAA.
HOWEVER...BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR AND 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
FIELDS OF THE GFS WL MENTION CHCS AFT 06Z FOR WESTERN FA AND LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR TUESDAY ENTIRE FA. HOWEVER...SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE AND EXPECT QPF UNDER A 0.25...WHICH WL NOT CAUSE ANY MORE
PROBLEMS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 2-4C ONLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 40S MTNS TO L/M50S VALLEYS.

WEDS...ANOTHER 5H VORT PASSES ACRS OUR FA ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT. GIVEN...7H MOISTURE/LIFT PROGGES WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS
ATTM WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO L50S. ONCE AGAIN QPF WL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY UNDER A 0.25 OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY...LLVL CAA CONTINUES BEHIND WEAK SFC FRNT AND DEPTH OF LLVL
MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES. HOWEVER...GIVEN FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS
AND LLVL UPSLOPE FLW WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACRS MTN ZNS. THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS MTNS WL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NITE.
BY FRIDAY WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FA AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUN
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU NGT-MON)...
MED-LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONSENSUS THAN YDY AND LEADING TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE...BUT STL SOME DFRNCS AND AS THEY SAY..."TIMING
IS EVERYTHING". ALRDY...WE'RE WITNESSING A KNOWN PRBLM AREA...TIMING
OF FOUR CORNERS S/W (SYSTEM) EJECTING INTO PLAINS. ATTM...SLOWER
THAN ERLR FCSTS AND THAT MEANS A DELAY IN ARRIVING ACRS OUR FA AND A
DELAY IN INFLUENCING "WILMA" ACRS GULF AS TPC/HPC DISCUSSIONS HAVE
INDICATED.

THIS DELAY IN FOUR CORNERS SYSTEM WL MEAN A DELAY IN THE SFC WAVE
MVG ACRS FA LATE SAT/SUN AND THE EXTENT OF PHASING AND PSBL
INTERACTION WITH WILMA WL DETERMINE HOW WET OR WHITE FOR MON BUT
LKLY STL INCLEMENT. THERE'S STL ??? ABT AMT OF PHASING AND IMPACT
LATE WKND/ERLY NXT WEEK WITH WILMA AND PSBL SNOW IN N CNTRY. IN THE
MEANTIME...STAY TUNED.

SOME DRY WX FOR THU/FRI WITH CNDN HIGH BUT ALSO A WIDESPREAD FROST/
FREEZE MAY FINALLY BE IN THE CARDS FRI MRNG...SOME 3-6 WEEKS LATER
THAN AVERAGE.

PLEASE...FOLLOW TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES/
FORECASTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON WILMA.

&&

.AVIATION...
WRAPARD MOISTURE HAS DEPARTED AND GENERALLY UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE CONDS
ACRS FA THIS AFTN/EVE WITH BINOVC AND CONTD CLRG AT KBTV/KMSS WITH
GRTST CLDS AT KMPV/KSLK. VFR CONDS DVLPG FOR MOST-ALL OF FA BY
00-02Z AHD OF FAST MVG CLIPPER FOR TUES MRNG. THERE'S PSBLTY OF SOME
FOG TNGT FOR MVFR AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK-KMPV BTWN 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
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References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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