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SKIVT-L  October 2005, Week 4

SKIVT-L October 2005, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 27 Oct 2005 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (520 lines)

Expires:200510272315;;935247
FPUS51 KBTV 270833
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
430 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-272315-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
430 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY 
LATE. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 270756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SFC LO OVR WRN NEW FOUNDLAND MOVG E PER GFS. EXTENSIVE CLDS ACRS NE
US AND GRTLKS AS NOTED ON SATL IMAGERY. PTCHY SHWRS ACRS NRN VT
EXITING AREA BY SUNRISE.

CONSIDERABLE MSTR LINGERS TDY THRU TNGT WITH CLDY SKIES LIL CHG IN
TEMP FROM CURRENT TRENDS. WL COMPROMISE BTWN MAV AND FWC FOR HI/LO
TEMPS TDY THRU FRI...THEN CLOSE TO GFS THEREAFTER.

H/5 LO EXITING CANADIAN MARITIMES TDY...AS ASOCD H/5 TROF MVS ACRS
GRTLKSAND NEW ENG TNGT AND FRI. SUGGESTION OF CLOSED LO FRI NGT-SAT
BUT THINK GFS MAY BE OVER DONE FOR OUR AREA AND TOO SLOW WHILE NAM
IS TOO FAST. AGAIN...OPT FOR COMPROMISE...SO WL INCRS CLD COVER IN
GRIDS AND ZONES SAT-SAT NGT. VORT MOVG THRU MO ATTM MITE SUGGEST TROF
PROGRESSION SLOWING DOWN. WL ALSO INDC SLGT CHC RN/SNW SHWR BASED
ON TROFINESS THRU PD. ASOCD OCEAN STORM SHUD BE FAR ENUF OFSHR PCPN
WISE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO BIG CHGS IN EXT FCST PDS. SFC HI OVR GRTLKS RGN SLOLY BLDS E
SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. COOLED TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGRS SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...FCST WILL CONT TO REFLECT MODERATING TEMPS. WL ALSO
CONT CHC SHWRS TUES-TUES NGT AS SFC LO MOVS THRU SRN CANADA AND
ASOCD CDFNT MOVS SE INTO AREA...HV SLGT CHC SHWR EITHER SIDE OF
TUES. NO CHGS TO TEMP FCST WITH NO BIG TEMP SWINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
MUCH OF FORECAST PERIOD CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WILL RANGE FROM
MVFR TO IFR WITH CLD DECK 3KFT TO NEAR 1KFT...WITH KSLK SEEING SOME
IFR CLD COVER. -SNRA/-RA POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. KSLK WILL SEE SOME
-SN/FLURRIES FOR EARLY MORNING HRS AND AFT SUNSET W/ TEMPS AT OR
BLW FREEZING. CURRENT NW WINDS 5-10KTS WILL BECM LGT/VAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SFH
LONG TERM...SFH
AVIATION...JN









FXUS61 KBTV 270235
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DECREASING IN INTENSITY A
BIT AND TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
AMOUNTS TONIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED PRECIPITATION TYPE TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVED PRECIPITATION. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 700 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
UPSLOPE EVENTS CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
SIGNALS INDICATE THE EVENT MAY GO WELL INTO THE NIGHT. CONCERNED
WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW NOT WEAKENING UNTIL 12Z AND WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE BELOW 5000 FEET...SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHWEST VERMONT TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL OMEGA CONTINUES QUITE PROMINENTLY
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z AND THEN WEAKENS TOWARD 12Z. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH 06Z AS WELL. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE UPSLOPE IN NATURE AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST VERMONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 800 FEET. WILL MENTION
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
CATEGORICAL LIGHT RAIN IN THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOOKING
AT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF LAMOILLE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. REST OF THE FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A LOT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER FA IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT NOT MUCH
IN WAY OF PCPN EXPECTED. MAJOR STORM WHICH PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF PCPN ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER PAST 36 HRS ALG WITH HVY SNOWS
(SEE ALBPNSBTV) OVER THE HIR TRRN IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME LINGERING SHWRS...RAIN IN THE VLYS AND A
MIX OVER THE HIR TRRN...WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONITE.
SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION PSBL...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN OF NW
VT DUE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THURS THRU SAT. SHRTWV
DROPPING SOUTH ACRS ONTARIO NOW FCST TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER FA DURING THURS. THIS FEATURE THEN STRENGTHENS FURTHER WHILE
MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...PASSING OFF SRN NEW ENG CST
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RMNS OVER RGN AND NO DEEP MSTR
INDICATED...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN WAY PCPN. LLVL MSTR LINGERS
HOWEVER...TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AROUND 5 K FT...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MODERATING TREND DEVELOPING OVER WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY TUE
NT. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL PROGS AND ENSEMBLE FCSTS
SUGGEST MEAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS NE CONUS SAT NT IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING CLOSED LOW FEATURE...AND PERSIST ACROSS AREA INTO
TUESDAY UNDER SEASONABLE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP REGIME. THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE AS ARCTIC OSCILLATION PATTERN TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
POSITIVE...WHICH WOULD LEND CREDENCE TO MORE DOMINATE POLAR VORTEX
ACROSS NRN CANADA. THIS WOULD IN TURN FAVOR MILDER MORE ZONAL FLOW
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. MEAN 500 HPA HGHTS AND
1000-500 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MAX READINGS IN THE 50S
SUN/MON AND 55-60 RANGE BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT NT...MODERATING INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW
40S RANGE BY SUN NT/MON NT.

MEXT DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK AS
WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY CROSSES AREA. HAVE THUS OPTED TO INTRODUCE CHC
RAIN SHOWERS TUE NT WITH THIS FEATURE. FRONT APPEARS FAIRLY BENIGN
HOWEVER...AND TEMPS WED BEHIND FRONT STILL NEAR EARLY NOVEMBER NORMS.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
WILL ADVERTISE MAINLY LOW VFR TO MVFR CONDS AREA WIDE THROUGH MUCH
OF NIGHT AS LIGHT BUT DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME CONTINUED LT PCPN IN IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF KBTV
THROUGH SUNSET. ALSO WILL OPT TO MENTION SOME -SN AT KSLK PER
MODEL/SOUNDING PROGS AND FAVORED WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
ACROSS DACKS LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE MAINLY DRY. THEN EXPECT CIGS
TO SLOWLY LIFT DURING COURSE OF LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY AS LIGHT WIND REGIME CONTINUES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON





FXUS61 KBTV 262300
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
UPSLOPE EVENTS CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
SIGNALS INDICATE THE EVENT MAY GO WELL INTO THE NIGHT. CONCERNED
WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW NOT WEAKENING UNTIL 12Z AND WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE BELOW 5000 FEET...SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHWEST VERMONT TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL OMEGA CONTINUES QUITE PROMINENTLY
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z AND THEN WEAKENS TOWARD 12Z. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH 06Z AS WELL. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE UPSLOPE IN NATURE AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST VERMONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 800 FEET. WILL MENTION
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
CATEGORICAL LIGHT RAIN IN THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOOKING
AT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF LAMOILLE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. REST OF THE FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A LOT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER FA IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT NOT MUCH
IN WAY OF PCPN EXPECTED. MAJOR STORM WHICH PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF PCPN ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER PAST 36 HRS ALG WITH HVY SNOWS
(SEE ALBPNSBTV) OVER THE HIR TRRN IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME LINGERING SHWRS...RAIN IN THE VLYS AND A
MIX OVER THE HIR TRRN...WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONITE.
SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION PSBL...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN OF NW
VT DUE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THURS THRU SAT. SHRTWV
DROPPING SOUTH ACRS ONTARIO NOW FCST TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER FA DURING THURS. THIS FEATURE THEN STRENGTHENS FURTHER WHILE
MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...PASSING OFF SRN NEW ENG CST
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RMNS OVER RGN AND NO DEEP MSTR
INDICATED...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN WAY PCPN. LLVL MSTR LINGERS
HOWEVER...TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AROUND 5 K FT...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MODERATING TREND DEVELOPING OVER WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY TUE
NT. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL PROGS AND ENSEMBLE FCSTS
SUGGEST MEAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS NE CONUS SAT NT IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING CLOSED LOW FEATURE...AND PERSIST ACROSS AREA INTO
TUESDAY UNDER SEASONABLE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP REGIME. THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE AS ARCTIC OSCILLATION PATTERN TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
POSITIVE...WHICH WOULD LEND CREDENCE TO MORE DOMINATE POLAR VORTEX
ACROSS NRN CANADA. THIS WOULD IN TURN FAVOR MILDER MORE ZONAL FLOW
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. MEAN 500 HPA HGHTS AND
1000-500 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MAX READINGS IN THE 50S
SUN/MON AND 55-60 RANGE BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT NT...MODERATING INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW
40S RANGE BY SUN NT/MON NT.

MEXT DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK AS
WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY CROSSES AREA. HAVE THUS OPTED TO INTRODUCE CHC
RAIN SHOWERS TUE NT WITH THIS FEATURE. FRONT APPEARS FAIRLY BENIGN
HOWEVER...AND TEMPS WED BEHIND FRONT STILL NEAR EARLY NOVEMBER NORMS.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
WILL ADVERTISE MAINLY LOW VFR TO MVFR CONDS AREA WIDE THROUGH MUCH
OF NIGHT AS LIGHT BUT DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME CONTINUED LT PCPN IN IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF KBTV
THROUGH SUNSET. ALSO WILL OPT TO MENTION SOME -SN AT KSLK PER
MODEL/SOUNDING PROGS AND FAVORED WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
ACROSS DACKS LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE MAINLY DRY. THEN EXPECT CIGS
TO SLOWLY LIFT DURING COURSE OF LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY AS LIGHT WIND REGIME CONTINUES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON








FXUS61 KBTV 261945
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A LOT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER FA IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT NOT MUCH
IN WAY OF PCPN EXPECTED. MAJOR STORM WHICH PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF PCPN ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER PAST 36 HRS ALG WITH HVY SNOWS
(SEE ALBPNSBTV) OVER THE HIR TRRN IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME LINGERING SHWRS...RAIN IN THE VLYS AND A
MIX OVER THE HIR TRRN...WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONITE.
SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION PSBL...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN OF NW
VT DUE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THURS THRU SAT. SHRTWV
DROPPING SOUTH ACRS ONTARIO NOW FCST TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER FA DURING THURS. THIS FEATURE THEN STRENGTHENS FURTHER WHILE
MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...PASSING OFF SRN NEW ENG CST
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RMNS OVER RGN AND NO DEEP MSTR
INDICATED...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN WAY PCPN. LLVL MSTR LINGERS
HOWEVER...TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AROUND 5 K FT...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MODERATING TREND DEVELOPING OVER WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY TUE
NT. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL PROGS AND ENSEMBLE FCSTS
SUGGEST MEAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS NE CONUS SAT NT IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING CLOSED LOW FEATURE...AND PERSIST ACROSS AREA INTO
TUESDAY UNDER SEASONABLE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP REGIME. THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE AS ARCTIC OSCILLATION PATTERN TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
POSITIVE...WHICH WOULD LEND CREDENCE TO MORE DOMINATE POLAR VORTEX
ACROSS NRN CANADA. THIS WOULD IN TURN FAVOR MILDER MORE ZONAL FLOW
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. MEAN 500 HPA HGHTS AND
1000-500 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MAX READINGS IN THE 50S
SUN/MON AND 55-60 RANGE BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT NT...MODERATING INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW
40S RANGE BY SUN NT/MON NT.

MEXT DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK AS
WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY CROSSES AREA. HAVE THUS OPTED TO INTRODUCE CHC
RAIN SHOWERS TUE NT WITH THIS FEATURE. FRONT APPEARS FAIRLY BENIGN
HOWEVER...AND TEMPS WED BEHIND FRONT STILL NEAR EARLY NOVEMBER NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
WILL ADVERTISE MAINLY LOW VFR TO MVFR CONDS AREA WIDE THROUGH MUCH
OF NIGHT AS LIGHT BUT DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME CONTINUED LT PCPN IN IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF KBTV
THROUGH SUNSET. ALSO WILL OPT TO MENTION SOME -SN AT KSLK PER
MODEL/SOUNDING PROGS AND FAVORED WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
ACROSS DACKS LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE MAINLY DRY. THEN EXPECT CIGS
TO SLOWLY LIFT DURING COURSE OF LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY AS LIGHT WIND REGIME CONTINUES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG









FXUS61 KBTV 261640
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
UPDATED ZONES SENT TO DROP ANY MENTION OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS
OR ADVISORIES. PCPN HAS DIMISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SOME SNOW/RAIN SHWRS TO CONTINUE THIS PM ACRS HIR
TRRN...ESPECIALLY WRN SLOPES. ANY ADDED SNOW ACCUM WILL BE MINOR.
RAIN SHWRS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THIS PM IN CHMPLN VLY. THE
REST OF VLY LOCATIONS WILL JUST SEE A CHC OF RAIN SHWRS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TDY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 531 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ALL ATTENTION IS STILL ON THE DESTRUCTIVE EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM
WHICH HAS SNAPPED TREES AND PRODUCED WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. THE
IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE VLY HAS BEEN SPARED SNOWFALL AND EVEN THE WRN
ADIRONDACKS WERE A BIT TOO FAR WEST TO RECEIVE THE COOLING AND
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW THAT
TRACKED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT. SNOW DEPTHS ARE GREATEST IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE NORTHEASTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...BUT ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE BASED ON EVEN
SUBTLE CHANGES OF ELEVATION...AVERAGING LESS THAN 2 INCHES BELOW 400
FEET...3 TO 10 INCHES AT 400 TO 1200 FEET...AND 10 TO 16 INCHES
ABOVE 1200 FEET.

EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING AWAY RAPIDLY INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE SLOWER-MOVING UPR AIR CRCLN AND
ABUNDANT MSTR WRAPPING SSEWRD FROM QUEBEC INTO A GENERAL OROGRAPHIC
UPSLOPE MEANS SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO END...WITH NWRN SLOPES OF GREEN
MTNS...AS USUAL...BEING THE LAST PLACE IN NEW ENGLAND FOR SNOW TO
END FOLLOWING A WELL-DEVELOPED SYNOPTIC STORM. HAVE CONTINUED WINTER
STORM WARNINGS THROUGH NOON AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 4
INCHES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO EARLIER FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND BEYOND.
A S/WV DROPPING SWRD FROM ONTARIO IS NOW FCST TO DVLP INTO A NEARLY
CLSD UPR LOW ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HIGH SFC PRESSURE AND LIMITED MSTR SUGGESTS LOW POPS TNGT THRU
FRIDAY...BUT SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A NICE PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY...AND WARMER WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY
BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COURTESY OF A SLOW-MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE.

AVIATION...
THRU 12Z AT ALL SITES...COND WILL RANGE FROM MVFR DOWN TO LIFR AT
TIMES AS SNOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF AREA. CLD DECK TO REMAIN AT/OR
BLW 2KFT AND MAY BE REDUCED TO BLW OVC010 AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM NORTH AT 10 TO 15KTS. AFT 12Z TEMPS RISE
SLIGHTLY THRU 18Z WHICH WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO MIX OF RA/SN AND
PREDOMINANTLY RA AT KMSS. AFT 00Z WITH TEMPS LOWERING...REMAINING
PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N TO NW
DURING THE DAY AT ALL SITES AT 10 TO 15KT. MVFR DOWN TO LIFR COND
WILL ENSUE AS WELL AFT 12Z...ESP FOR LOW CLD COVER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$









   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


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References

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