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SKIVT-L  October 2005, Week 4

SKIVT-L October 2005, Week 4

Subject:

Snowfall likely TONIGHT in mtns

From:

Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 22 Oct 2005 18:43:51 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (95 lines)

NWS in Burlington is calling for 1-3" above 1,000ft through mid-morning.
Check out this forecast for the mtn zones:

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-230915-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
322 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

.TONIGHT...RAIN...MIXING WITH SNOW ABOVE 1000 FEET LATE. LOWS IN 
THE MID 30S. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 INCH OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
WINDS. 
.SUNDAY...RAIN OR SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ABOVE 1000 FEET. HIGHS 
AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AN 
INCH OR LESS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE 
OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 

Anyone see some large changes there?  Rain or Snow likely the next four 
periods...I do believe the mountains will see snowfall tonight which may 
change to rain in the afternoon then back to snow tomorrow night.  Albany 
is concerned with the chance of rain changing to snow anywhere in their 
zones tonight.  Heavy precip and cold air aloft could be enough to change 
to wet snow just about anywhere tonight.  I saw some posts from the Albany 
NBC 13 weather guy and he is concerned about accumulating snowfall north 
of Albany tonight...might throw in some snow accums for the 11pm news 
tonight.  Keep an eye on the situation and if it looks good, go find some 
place to make some turns tomorrow.  I think NWS Gray, ME also has 1-3" 
tonight and another 1-3" tomorrow in their northern zone forecasts.

From Albany:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
330 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

WORKZONES OUT. PRODUCTS ISSUED SHORTLY.

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ORGANIZED ALONG THE MID 
ATLANTIC EASTERN SEABOARD...THEN MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ALONG THE 
COASTLINE TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CAPE 
COD...AND BE OFF THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE IN THE DAY. 
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM 
THE OHIO VALLEY...TO OVER OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING OUR 
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.   


&&amp;

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WELL...AFTER A GREAT 
START...THIS OCTOBER WILL PROBABLY GO DOWN AS NOT ONE OF OUR BETTER 
ONES WEATHERWISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF WET COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER 
(JUST IN TIME FOR YET ANOTHER WEEKEND) ALREADY CAUSED THE PITTERING 
OF ICE PELLETS EARLIER IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A HEALTHY LOOKING 
BAROCLINIC LEAF...THE MID LEVEL FEATURE OF DEVELOPING 
CYCLOGENESIS...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO OUR PARTS 
TONIGHT. WE HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE PROFILE (ESPECIALLY OFF THE 
GFS) MIGHT BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW (EVEN AT 
LOWER ELEVATIONS...REMEMBER OCT 4 1987 ANYONE?). THE ONE AND PERHAPS 
SAVING GRACE IS THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR 
EAST. SO...WHILE H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO AROUND 0C OR 
SLIGHTLY LOWER NORTHWEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT...FOR NOW WILL CALL 
IT RAIN. WE THINK THE CHANCES OF ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO RESULT 
DYNAMICAL COOLING/AND OR MELTING SNOW FLAKES... ARE SLIM. THIS IS 
ONE TIME A PROBABILISTIC FORECAST WOULD BE GOOD TO UTILIZE. 

FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CONFINE A POSSIBLE MIX WITH SNOW TO NORTHERN 
HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND  WINDHAM COUNTIES. 


IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT THE EVENING CREW NEEDS TO CLOSELY 
MONITORED RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS (NOT TO MENTION THE MESO-NET 
SYSTEM) AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SNOW JUST 
ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN OUR CWA BY LATE TONIGHT.   

KEEPING WITH OUR THINKING...PRECIPITATION (MAINLY LIQUID RAIN) 
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...OUR AREA REMAINS IN A 
WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE EARLY IN THE DAY...SO KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS 
FROM ALB NORTHWARD TO START...AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS. 

WENT CLOSE TO MAV NOS...THOUGH A TOUCH HIGHER TONIGHT. 

-Scott

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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