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SKIVT-L  December 2005, Week 2

SKIVT-L December 2005, Week 2

Subject:

Upslope Snow and Lake Effect tonight...More Substantial Snowfall Thurs-Fri

From:

Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 12 Dec 2005 10:47:29 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (80 lines)

This morning has resulted in a generally light 1-3" snowfall across most 
of the north country and the Champlain Valley convergence has been 
producing bursts of snow in the valley as the strong cold air advection 
funnels down the valley.  Throw in a little moisture supply from the lake 
and we've got snow.  This appears to be tapering off per regional radar 
and dry air is now south pushing across the NY/Canadian border.

Wind flow and some resulting moisture should allow snowshowers to continue 
along the nothern Green Mountain spine through this evening and tonight 
with 2-4" possible as per the BTV 5km ETA and SUNY MM5.  This includes 
Stowe, Bolton, Smuggs, and Jay.  I'd favor Stowe/Mansfield out of those 
areas as some lake enhancement may occur as they are furthest south and 
offer the greatest vertical relief, especially the western side of 
Mansfield.  Further south at MRG/Sugarbush, something a little bigger 
could be in the making if the lake effect/lake enhanced snowfall gets 
going.  Parameters look good.  

Tonight, if you've read BTV's AFDs they have been mentioning the potential 
for some lake effect/lake enhanced snowfall.  Per the workstation 5km ETA 
it does appear like there could be some fluffy snowfall accumulations 
between Burlington and Middlebury tonight as a lake band organizes.  The 
ETA has the wind flow at the surface staying northerly from here till 
tomorrow morning but still flowing more westerly not too far off the 
deck.  It looks like by 9pm tonight the flow above the surface comes 
around to a more northerly direction and the entire column has a 
unidirectional flow across the longest stretch of the lake.  The lake 
temperature is currently listed as 40F at the ferry dock and surface 
temperatures tonight will be in the teens and single digits flowing across 
the lake.  From the surface up to 850mb the temperature over the lake goes 
from +3 or +4C to -20 or -22C. The inversion level is a little lower than 
I would like to see at only 800mb instead of above the 700mb level but 
upstream the airmass seems fairly deep so it should work and the 
atmosphere appears sufficiently saturated high enough for convection and 
snow growth.  So tonight we should have deep, cold air flowing over the 
warmer lake resulting in a moist low level layer right above the lake, as 
this modified, moist air flows across the lake it'll encounter increased 
friction with land...air travels faster over water than it does over land 
due to frictional forces and this moist air gets piled up like a car pile 
up on the highway.  It has no where to go but up and convection forms 
followed by snow growth.  

I'm thinking very localized 2-5" fluffy amounts right along the lakeshore 
from Burlington down to Charlotte to Vergennes and Middlebury.  As for the 
skiing effects, these types of situations can favor Mad River Glen and 
Sugarbush...as areas like Hinesburgh, Bristol, Starksboro, etc might be 
slightly further east from best flow, the increased friction with the 
western slopes of the Greens in Addison County should make up for it.  
Think of the car pile up on the highway example.  Moisture has no where to 
go but up and even a little added lake moisture, with very high snow 
ratios could lead to a 6-8" snowfall, especially at MRG.  I'm not saying 
it'll happen but don't be surprised if it does.  I'll see how the evening 
develops and let you know if the snow will materialize in that region as 
we have quite the MRG contingent on this list.

While this isn't very significant by any means and won't have a large 
effect on ski conditions, I'm trying to learn more about this type of set 
up and analyzing it.



Next up is an interesting looking situation that could bring a widespread 
moderate snowfall to the the north country on Thursday and Friday.  A low 
pressure system moving across the upper midwest is modeled to give birth 
to a low down in the southeast that will then track northward towards New 
England.  I'm not sold that it'll be an all snow, significant snowstorm 
event, as any time there is a midwest low involved, it seems as though 
precipitation types can be a problem.  However, current models indicate 
the secondary low will be almost coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and 
riding northward which is a great track for New England snowfall.  I do 
think the models are transfering the energy and allowing the eastern low 
to take over a litle too quickly though, so we'll see.  More on that as 
the week progresses.

-Scott

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