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SKIVT-L  December 2005, Week 2

SKIVT-L December 2005, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 11 Dec 2005 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (534 lines)

Expires:200512120215;;005056
FPUS51 KBTV 111115 AAA
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2005


VTZ003-006-016-017-120215-
ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL
615 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2005

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 30.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 
AROUND AN INCH. MORNING HIGHS IN THE MID 20S...WITH TEMPERATURES 
SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 15 TO 20. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO ZERO. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW
60 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN has been proposed for termination. NOAA's NWS will be accepting
comments on the proposed termination until January 31, 2006. Please learn
more about the termination and how to leave a comment [2]here
   
          
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 111121 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LK ONTARIO SNOW PLUME
ACROSS WRN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR/SAT
TRENDS INDICATING BROAD SW FLOW AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ENHANCED ACTIVITY ORIENTED SW TO NE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. ALSO SOME UPSTREAM ENHANCEMENT OFF LK
ERIE POSSIBLY AFFECTING EVOLUTION OF PRECIP THIS MORNING. SOUNDING
PROFILES INDICATE SHEAR GENERALLY TOO HIGH FOR ACTIVITY TO FULLY
ORGANIZE...BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND NEW WSETA PROGS SHOWING
BAND DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY
WARRANT UPDATE FOR INCREASED POPS AND MINOR ACCUM SNOWS HERE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 250 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MAIN SHORT TERM WX HIGHLIGHTS WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER/CHC LIGHT PRECIP LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY...THEN CLEARING AND
COLDER FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME.

LATEST SYNOPTIC MAP INDICATING RIDGING AT SFC/MID LVLS THAT AFFECTED
AREA YESTERDAY NOW OFFSHORE IN WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN...WHILE MEAN
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING...ESP AT MID LVLS PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. SFC TO MID LVL FLOW HAS RESPONDED
ACCORDINGLY...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
FA. EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST TODAY AND
PUSH ACROSS AREA DURING TONIGHT/FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. LATEST
IR/11-3.9 IMAGERY ALONG W/SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SUN THIS MORNING...ESP VT BEFORE DEEPER RH/CLOUDS ENCROACH FROM
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WITH TROUGH NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...
W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/OMEGA/QG FORCING AND PWATS
PEAKING ONLY IN THE 8-10MM BALL PARK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
FEATURES DO TRAVERSE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AREA
LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY...BUT BEST FORCING TIED TO SFC
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...WITH
SOME 850 HPA FGEN AND DECENT POST FRONTAL CAA. WITH OVERALL WEAK
FORCING...WILL GENERALLY DOWNPLAY PRECIP CHCS...HIGHLIGHTING
HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS DACKS/NRN GREENS...WITH DRIER REGIME ACROSS
NRN VALLEYS...AND EVEN LESS SRN VT. FAVORABLE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOCALLY ENHANCE SHSN ACTIVITY
ACROSS NRN HIGHER TERRAIN THREAT AREAS...WITH A FEW FLUFFY INCHES
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ONLY A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF AN INCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS TO
REMAIN STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY DURING DAY MONDAY...WITH MAXES
GENERALLY IN THE MORNING EXCEPT ERN VT WHERE SLOWER PASSAGE OF SFC
FRONT AND MEAN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
EFFECTS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO REGION FROM GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC FRONT PUSH EASTWARD
AWAY FROM REGION. WILL HIGHLIGHT COLDEST READINGS NRN NY AS SFC
GRADIENT RELAXES MORE HERE WITH HIGHER DECOUPLING POTENTIAL. THEN
MAINLY SUNNY AND COLD TUESDAY WITH READINGS APPROX 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL. CLEAR AND COLD CONDS CONTINUE TUES NT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES ACROSS REGION. HAVE UNDERCUT MIN GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD
HERE AS OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. MEAN HIGH
PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF REGIONAL WX CONDS DURING WEDNESDAY
W/TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING. THIS FEATURE TO THEN SLIDE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT W/BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCING ALONG W/INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AS BROAD OCCLUSION/WAA PATTERN APPROACH REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST. DECENT 850-700 HPA WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG FORCING ASSOC
W/THIS FEATURE AND HIGHER POP THREAT STILL APPEARS REASONABLE HERE
LATER WED NT INTO THURSDAY. OP SOLNS HAVE ONCE AGAIN SLOWED TIMING
ON THIS FEATURE...BUT TYPICAL QUICKER ARRIVAL OF WAA EVENTS IN
GENERAL SHOULD LEND CREDENCE TO INHERITED FCST OF INCREASING POPS
FROM SW TO NE LATER WED NT. AS IS TYPICAL W/THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS...MEAN FORCING ALOFT GENERALLY INDEPENDENT OF OROGRAPHY. THUS
LOOKING AT A BASIC 4-6 HOUR EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 ACCUM NOT
FAVORING ANY AREA OVER ANOTHER. AFTERWARDS MEAN HIGH PRESSURE
RESUMES CONTROL OF REGIONAL WX PICTURE BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS MEAN THICKNESS LVLS RISE AND TEMPS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY TO
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

AVIATION...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AT
THIS TIME. WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW AND MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVE EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 20Z-23Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS BECOMING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS...AND ALSO WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS VERMONT BETWEEN 00Z-03Z TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG








FXUS61 KBTV 110750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
250 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MAIN SHORT TERM WX HIGHLIGHTS WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER/CHC LIGHT PRECIP LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY...THEN CLEARING AND
COLDER FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME.

LATEST SYNOPTIC MAP INDICATING RIDGING AT SFC/MID LVLS THAT AFFECTED
AREA YESTERDAY NOW OFFSHORE IN WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN...WHILE MEAN
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING...ESP AT MID LVLS PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. SFC TO MID LVL FLOW HAS RESPONDED
ACCORDINGLY...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
FA. EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST TODAY AND
PUSH ACROSS AREA DURING TONIGHT/FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. LATEST
IR/11-3.9 IMAGERY ALONG W/SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SUN THIS MORNING...ESP VT BEFORE DEEPER RH/CLOUDS ENCROACH FROM
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WITH TROUGH NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...
W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/OMEGA/QG FORCING AND PWATS
PEAKING ONLY IN THE 8-10MM BALL PARK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
FEATURES DO TRAVERSE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AREA
LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY...BUT BEST FORCING TIED TO SFC
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...WITH
SOME 850 HPA FGEN AND DECENT POST FRONTAL CAA. WITH OVERALL WEAK
FORCING...WILL GENERALLY DOWNPLAY PRECIP CHCS...HIGHLIGHTING
HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS DACKS/NRN GREENS...WITH DRIER REGIME ACROSS
NRN VALLEYS...AND EVEN LESS SRN VT. FAVORABLE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOCALLY ENHANCE SHSN ACTIVITY
ACROSS NRN HIGHER TERRAIN THREAT AREAS...WITH A FEW FLUFFY INCHES
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ONLY A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF AN INCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS TO
REMAIN STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY DURING DAY MONDAY...WITH MAXES
GENERALLY IN THE MORNING EXCEPT ERN VT WHERE SLOWER PASSAGE OF SFC
FRONT AND MEAN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
EFFECTS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO REGION FROM GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC FRONT PUSH EASTWARD
AWAY FROM REGION. WILL HIGHLIGHT COLDEST READINGS NRN NY AS SFC
GRADIENT RELAXES MORE HERE WITH HIGHER DECOUPLING POTENTIAL. THEN
MAINLY SUNNY AND COLD TUESDAY WITH READINGS APPROX 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL. CLEAR AND COLD CONDS CONTINUE TUES NT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES ACROSS REGION. HAVE UNDERCUT MIN GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD
HERE AS OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. MEAN HIGH
PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF REGIONAL WX CONDS DURING WEDNESDAY
W/TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING. THIS FEATURE TO THEN SLIDE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT W/BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCING ALONG W/INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AS BROAD OCCLUSION/WAA PATTERN APPROACH REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST. DECENT 850-700 HPA WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG FORCING ASSOC
W/THIS FEATURE AND HIGHER POP THREAT STILL APPEARS REASONABLE HERE
LATER WED NT INTO THURSDAY. OP SOLNS HAVE ONCE AGAIN SLOWED TIMING
ON THIS FEATURE...BUT TYPICAL QUICKER ARRIVAL OF WAA EVENTS IN
GENERAL SHOULD LEND CREDENCE TO INHERITED FCST OF INCREASING POPS
FROM SW TO NE LATER WED NT. AS IS TYPICAL W/THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS...MEAN FORCING ALOFT GENERALLY INDEPENDENT OF OROGRAPHY. THUS
LOOKING AT A BASIC 4-6 HOUR EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 ACCUM NOT
FAVORING ANY AREA OVER ANOTHER. AFTERWARDS MEAN HIGH PRESSURE
RESUMES CONTROL OF REGIONAL WX PICTURE BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS MEAN THICKNESS LVLS RISE AND TEMPS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY TO
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AT
THIS TIME. WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW AND MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVE EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 20Z-23Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS BECOMING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS...AND ALSO WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS VERMONT BETWEEN 00Z-03Z TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH









FXUS61 KBTV 110238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
938 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.  LONGER LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  THIS FEATURE
HAD HELPED BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE REGION...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS
SEEMED TO HAMPER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  WITH THIS FEATURE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN
END TONIGHT.  ACTUALLY HAVE RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES MOST AREAS...BUT
MID CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL.  HAVE MENTIONED SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT
WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.  REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1149 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2005)

SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE NEXT 12 TO 24HRS WITH
ONLY MINOR FRNTS/SHORT WAVE ENERGY INFLUENCING OUR WX PATTERN. BIG
PICTURE SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF NEXT PIECE
OF ENERGY ACRS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ENERGY CONTS TO LIFT NE
TOWARD OUR FA AND MAY PROVIDE AREA WITH CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT. SYSTEM LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON VAPOR LOOP...BUT
HAS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE REACHING THE SFC BASED ON RADAR/OBS.
OTHERWISE...NEXT 5H VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF
AND SFC COLD FRNT IS LOCATED ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS AND WL IMPACT CWA
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OBS/RADAR SHOWS SOME SW ACTIVITY ACRS
NORTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

INTERESTING THERMAL PROFILE ACRS OHIO VALLEY/NE CONUS WITH COLDER
SFC/85H/5H TEMPS ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN NY/PA AND WARMER
TEMPS OVER NNY AND VT. LLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLW CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME -SW ACTIVITY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS THIS AFTN WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACRS SOUTHERN CPV AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
5H VORT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK TONIGHT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF ENERGY AND SOME 850-500MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND LLVL UPSLOPE FLW/SOME MOISTURE BELOW TEMP
INVERSION WL MENTION CHC POPS DACKS/SLV AND SCHC WESTERN SLOPES
GREEN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FA WL BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
FLURRIES. BASED ON CLOUDS/SOUTHERN FLW LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...IN THE 20S. SUNDAY...ANOTHER 5H VORT APPROACHES WESTERN FA
ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND SFC COLD FRNT. FEEL INITIALLY
MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER...AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM LAKES AND APPROACHING TROF AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS WL DEVELOP ACRS WESTERN FA AROUND 18Z. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...FIRST WEAK SFC FRNT PUSHES THRU THE CPV BY 00Z
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC COLD FRNT APPROACHING THE
SLV BY 06Z MONDAY. THIS FRNT WL PUSH ACRS OUR FA ON MONDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. GIVEN 85H FG FORCING ALONG
BOUNDARY AND PLENTY OF 925-700MB MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES...POTENTIAL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR A FEW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY
ACRS MTNS ZNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP SHARPLY BEHIND FRNT FROM -6C
TO -18C UNDER STRONG LLVL CAA. SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS WL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DEPTH OF LLVL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS MONDAY ACRS THE
DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES WITH CHC TO SCHC ELSEWHERE. BASED ON THERMAL
PROFILE AND STRONG CAA TEMPS COULD BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FIRST PORTION OF THIS FCST
PERIOD...ALTHO THEY DIGRESS ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF FA DURING TUES WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BLDS INTO RGN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUES RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CLEAR AND COLD TUE NITE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SUBZERO READINGS EXPECTED IN NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS (ADRNDKS/NE VT) AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. WE REMAIN
UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WED...WITH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF FA
DURING PM/EVENING HRS. WITH PASSAGE OF RIDGE AND ONSET OF WAA...CLDS
WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD FA WED NITE WITH CHC SNOW AFTER MIDNITE.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE ACRS GRTLKS THURS...WITH
ONLY A HINT OF REDEVELOPMENT ALG CST. BEST CHC FOR SEEING PCPN WITH
THIS EVENT SHAPING UP TO BE THURS AM. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS...WITH A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED. LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS PSBL FRI...THEN MAINLY DRY LATER FRI INTO SAT.

AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW...BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT...WILL PERSIST THRU THE FCST
PERIOD. SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM TO TIME...MAINLY OVER NRN NY. EXPECT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR AT KBTV AND KMPV. PREVAILING CIGS
AT KMSS/KSLK WILL BE MVFR...OCNLY IMPROVING TO VFR. VSBYS LOWERING
TO AROUND 3 MILES IN SCT SNOW SHWRS AT KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON





FXUS61 KBTV 101922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1149 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2005

FCST CHALLENGE IS TEMPS AND CHCS OF PRECIP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE NEXT 12 TO 24HRS WITH
ONLY MINOR FRNTS/SHORT WAVE ENERGY INFLUENCING OUR WX PATTERN. BIG
PICTURE SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF NEXT PIECE
OF ENERGY ACRS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ENERGY CONTS TO LIFT NE
TOWARD OUR FA AND MAY PROVIDE AREA WITH CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT. SYSTEM LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON VAPOR LOOP...BUT
HAS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE REACHING THE SFC BASED ON RADAR/OBS.
OTHERWISE...NEXT 5H VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF
AND SFC COLD FRNT IS LOCATED ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS AND WL IMPACT CWA
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OBS/RADAR SHOWS SOME SW ACTIVITY ACRS
NORTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

INTERESTING THERMAL PROFILE ACRS OHIO VALLEY/NE CONUS WITH COLDER
SFC/85H/5H TEMPS ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN NY/PA AND WARMER
TEMPS OVER NNY AND VT. LLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLW CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME -SW ACTIVITY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS THIS AFTN WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACRS SOUTHERN CPV AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
5H VORT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK TONIGHT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF ENERGY AND SOME 850-500MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND LLVL UPSLOPE FLW/SOME MOISTURE BELOW TEMP
INVERSION WL MENTION CHC POPS DACKS/SLV AND SCHC WESTERN SLOPES
GREEN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FA WL BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
FLURRIES. BASED ON CLOUDS/SOUTHERN FLW LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...IN THE 20S. SUNDAY...ANOTHER 5H VORT APPROACHES WESTERN FA
ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND SFC COLD FRNT. FEEL INITIALLY
MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER...AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM LAKES AND APPROACHING TROF AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS WL DEVELOP ACRS WESTERN FA AROUND 18Z. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...FIRST WEAK SFC FRNT PUSHES THRU THE CPV BY 00Z
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC COLD FRNT APPROACHING THE
SLV BY 06Z MONDAY. THIS FRNT WL PUSH ACRS OUR FA ON MONDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. GIVEN 85H FG FORCING ALONG
BOUNDARY AND PLENTY OF 925-700MB MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES...POTENTIAL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR A FEW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY
ACRS MTNS ZNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP SHARPLY BEHIND FRNT FROM -6C
TO -18C UNDER STRONG LLVL CAA. SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS WL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DEPTH OF LLVL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS MONDAY ACRS THE
DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES WITH CHC TO SCHC ELSEWHERE. BASED ON THERMAL
PROFILE AND STRONG CAA TEMPS COULD BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FIRST PORTION OF THIS FCST
PERIOD...ALTHO THEY DIGRESS ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF FA DURING TUES WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BLDS INTO RGN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUES RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CLEAR AND COLD TUE NITE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SUBZERO READINGS EXPECTED IN NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS (ADRNDKS/NE VT) AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. WE REMAIN
UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WED...WITH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF FA
DURING PM/EVENING HRS. WITH PASSAGE OF RIDGE AND ONSET OF WAA...CLDS
WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD FA WED NITE WITH CHC SNOW AFTER MIDNITE.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE ACRS GRTLKS THURS...WITH
ONLY A HINT OF REDEVELOPMENT ALG CST. BEST CHC FOR SEEING PCPN WITH
THIS EVENT SHAPING UP TO BE THURS AM. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS...WITH A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED. LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS PSBL FRI...THEN MAINLY DRY LATER FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW...BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT...WILL PERSIST THRU THE FCST
PERIOD. SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM TO TIME...MAINLY OVER NRN NY. EXPECT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR AT KBTV AND KMPV. PREVAILING CIGS
AT KMSS/KSLK WILL BE MVFR...OCNLY IMPROVING TO VFR. VSBYS LOWERING
TO AROUND 3 MILES IN SCT SNOW SHWRS AT KMSS/KSLK.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
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May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
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April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 4
December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
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July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 4
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April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
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March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 1
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
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August 2006, Week 3
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August 2006, Week 1
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July 2006, Week 3
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July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 3
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June 2006, Week 1
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April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
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March 2006, Week 4
March 2006, Week 3
March 2006, Week 2
March 2006, Week 1
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February 2006, Week 3
February 2006, Week 2
February 2006, Week 1
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January 2006, Week 4
January 2006, Week 3
January 2006, Week 2
January 2006, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 5
April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
January 2005, Week 2
January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
December 2004, Week 4
December 2004, Week 3
December 2004, Week 2
December 2004, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 4
November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 1
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February 2004, Week 1
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