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SKIVT-L  January 2006, Week 5

SKIVT-L January 2006, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 30 Jan 2006 06:50:06 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (468 lines)

Expires:200601302215;;162794
FPUS51 KBTV 300822
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 AM EST MON JAN 30 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-302215-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH
320 AM EST MON JAN 30 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OR SNOW LIKELY UNTIL
LATE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION A 
DUSTING TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. 
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN has been proposed for termination. NOAA's NWS will be accepting
comments on the proposed termination until January 31, 2006. Please learn
more about the termination and how to leave a comment [2]here
   
          
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 301004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST MON JAN 30 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT LIFTS NEWRD ACRS
ERN ONTARIO TDY. WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESE FROM THE LOW INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRDLY LIFT NORTH INTO ACRS FA TDY AND THEN STALL AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE TONITE. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEFT ALL WINTER WX ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT IN
PLACE FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR ST LWR VLY
AND NE CLINTON CTY NY TILL 10 AM...AS SHALLOW LLVL COLD AIR IN THESE
AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO BE DISPLACED. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN M-U 20S...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FRZG TILL LATE THIS AM. TEMPS ACRS
REST OF FA ARE MOSTLY IN THE L-M 30S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 20S IN NE
KINGDOM. AN ASSORTMENT OF PTYPES ACRS NC/NE VT AND MAINLY RAIN OR
FZRA ELSEWHERE. PCPN RATHER SPOTTY IN NATURE AS EVIDENCED BY LATEST
RADAR...AND WITH BEST FORCING LIFTING NORTH OF THE BORDER THIS
AM...EXPECT THE PCPN CHANCES TO DECREASE DURING TDY WHILE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM. HIGHEST POPS FOR TDY WILL BE EARLY...THEN CHC POPS
LATER AM/PM WHEN PCPN MAINLY RAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM TDY WILL BE
MINIMAL...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IN NE VT. ICE POTENTIAL REMAINS
GREATEST IN ST LWR VLY...WHERE AMTS WILL BE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER
INCH. ICE AMTS WILL BE LESS ACRS REST OF FA.

FOR TONIGHT/TUES...VIGOROUS SHRTWV DROPS SEWRD THRU LONG WAVE TROF
TO POSN OFF MID ATLC CST DURING TUES. THIS RESULTS IN DEVELOPMENT
OF SFC LOW ALG VIRGINIA CAPES...WHICH STRENGHTENS AND PASSES OUT TO
SEA SOUTH OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK TUES. SIGNIFICANT PCPN WITH THIS
LOW EXPECTED TO RMN OFFSHORE. WE WILL BE INFLUNCED MORE BY NRN
STREAM SHRTWV AND THE REMNANTS OF LOW PRES MOVG ACRS ONTARIO TDY.
HAVE CONTD WITH CHC POPS FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN TON/TUES. LLVL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTYP STILL IN QUESTION TONITE...ESPCIALLY WEST
OF THE GREEN MTNS.

WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS LATER TUES NITE/WED. EXPECT ANY SNOW SHWRS TO
COME TO AN END TUES NITE FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY DAY WED...ALTHO
THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WE SEE IS DEBATABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST
ATTM...ALTHO LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW MAY
ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN NRN NY...AND ACRS REST OF FA WED
NITE...WHICH IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HRS EARLIER THAN GOING FCST INDICATES.
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
THURS/FRI...WITH A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PSBLY AFFECTING RGN FRI NITE
INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MIXED PCPN TO SWITCH OVER TO ALL RAIN ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS
MORNING. -RA/SN TO RETURN ACRS THE FA EARLY ON MON NIGHT. PLENTY OF
CLDS ACRS THE FA OTRW. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS TO PERSIST ACRS THE FA
INTO AT LEAST EARLY MON NITE. KMSS TO SEE PERSISTENT EASTERLY SFC
FLOW (AND MAYBE A LONGER PERIOD OF FZRA THIS MORNING?) THOUGH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019
     UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ026>028-087 UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ029>031-034 UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...MURRAY









FXUS61 KBTV 300311
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1011 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2006

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
MINOR UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SPOTTER REPORTS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE MOMENT WITH FREEZING RAIN NOW FINALLY DEVELOPING
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH POCKETS OF SLEET...MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT...RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. SPOTTER REPORTS HAVE INDICATED
ANYWHERE FROM A HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVER THE AREA.
STILL EXPECTED ANOTHER 1 TO 2...WHICH GOING FORECAST HAS COVERED
WELL. HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. WILL KEEP ALL
ADVISORIES IN TACT AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS STARTING TO SHOW
UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME WARMING TOWARD MORNING...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN IN SOME AREAS. AGAIN...GOING FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT PRECIPITATION TYPE...WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION...AND
INDICATING IN SOME AREAS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE
MID 30S BY MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIODS REMAIN UNTOUCHED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 420 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2006)

SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE /990MB/ LOCATED OVER LOWER MI WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NEWD INTO ERN ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EWD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS FAR WRN NY AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL
LIFT NWD INTO THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHIELD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...WE
ARE MONITORING THE SWD FILTRATION OF VERY SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING AIR
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VLY WHICH WILL
COMPLICATE P-TYPE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HAVE INCLUDED EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY
NEW YORK INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
DISPARITY EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LARGE-SCALE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SW-NE. SHALLOW
POLAR AIR MASS BEGAN TO FILTER SWD THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN
ZONES...AND HAS CONTINUE TO DO SO ON LIGHT NORTH TO NELY WINDS
ACROSS THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VLY AS FAR SOUTH AS BTV THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY STRONG SWWD
THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY...WHERE MSS HAS SEEN NELY WIND GUSTS TO
28KTS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S. WITH THIS
REINFORCING SHOT OF SUB-FREEZING AIR...FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IS
PARTICULARLY TROUBLING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY. WITH STRONG
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION...SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO FZRA ACROSS FAR NRN
NY BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL QPF IS NEAR 0.50 IN...AND COULD EASILY SEE
ICE ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 0.25 IN ON TOP OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL AROUND THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR 40F AT KRUT...AND MUCH OF THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VLY WILL TRANSITION
FROM A RA/SN MIX TO PLAIN RAIN BY MIDNIGHT. THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VLY OF
VT MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE LEFT
BTV AREA OUT OF ADVISORY FOR EXPECTED WARMING. THESE TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING.

CENTRAL AND NERN VT...FEEL THAT FZRA THREAT IS LESS HERE. BOTH THE
GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AROUND 30/06Z. BELIEVE WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING THAT WARM ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LAYER INTO N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT WILL BE MITIGATED AS
COMPARED TO NRN NY. THUS...HAVE DE-EMPHASIZED FREEZING RAIN THREAT
IN N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT TONIGHT...AND HAVE BOOSTED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES /WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATION AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS/. MAX PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY LIGHTENING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
MAIN BAND OF FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING
ROAD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
STALLED UPPER LOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...WITH ISO TO SCT
RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH POSITION THROUGH
THE OHIO VLY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS PERSIST AS
TO SFC LOW TRACK THEREAFTER. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER
TRACKING THE LOW TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK /40N 70W/ AT 985MB CENTRAL
PRESSURED BY 18Z TUESDAY...AND THEN ENEWD SOUTH OF CAPE COD. HAVE
CONTINUED TO PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS FURTHER OFFSHORE.
HAVE UNDERCUT SREF 6HRLY POPS BASED ON INFLUENCE OF NAM MEMBERS AND
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...WE FINALLY BUILD A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EWD INTO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND PARTIAL CLEARING APPEARS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD ACROSS NRN NY...BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...DIFFICULTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO
TIMING/STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE REGION. WEAK
WAA LIGHT SNOWS TO PUSH ACROSS REGION DURING WED NT/THURSDAY...THEN
AGAIN DURING FRIDAY WHERE SOME MIXED RA/SN POSSBL. THEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
RA/SN DURING SAT/SUN TIME FRAME. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY MOST
ENSEMBLE/OPERATIONAL SOLNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WITH A PNA
REGIME CHANGE OFFERED BY SHORT RANGE TELECONNECTION FCSTS...SEE NO
REASON TO DISCOUNT SOLN AT THIS TIME. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN EVENTUAL
TRACK OF SYSTEM...WITH LATEST RUNS NOW TRENDING NORTH AND WEST WITH
SFC LOW. WITH LACK OF STRONG BLOCKING UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE AND
SOURCE OF COLD AIR...A MEAN SLV STORM TRACK APPEARS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE. AT THIS TIME WILL OFFER HIGH CHC RA/SN WITH THIS
FEATURE...LEAVING P-TYPE DETAILS AND TEMPS TO FUTURE SHIFTS. DEEP
AND POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE NATURE OF UPPER TROUGH WOULD ARGUE HOWEVER
FOR THREAT OF HVY PCPN THESE PERIODS AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS
WEEK PROGRESSES.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
CONDS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVRNT
HOURS AS BROAD SCALE WAA PATTERN AND ASSOC PCPN AFFECT REGION. AS
DISCUSSED ABV...LATEST AVBL PARTIAL THICKNESS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
A MAINLY -SN AND/OR -SNPL EVENT ERN VT...-SNPL AND/OR -FZRAPL EVENT
CHVLY...MAINLY -RA SRN VT...AND -SNPL TO -FZRA OR -RA NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT A 6 HOUR EVENT MOST LOCALES...WITH LONGEST
DURATION ACROSS SLV...WHERE PROLONGED -FZRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OTHER THAN MODERATE NERLY GRADIENT ACROSS SLV...WINDS TO REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. AS PCPN LIFTS OUT OF REGION LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...AMPLE LOW LVL RH SHOULD LINGER ACROSS AREA. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY AVBL MOS/FOUS DATA AND WILL MAINTAIN RATHER
PESSIMISTIC CONDS AREA WIDE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON DESPITE LITTLE
PCPN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019
     UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ026>031-034-087 UNTIL 7 AM
     MONDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON








FXUS61 KBTV 292125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE /990MB/ LOCATED OVER LOWER MI WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NEWD INTO ERN ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EWD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS FAR WRN NY AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL
LIFT NWD INTO THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHIELD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...WE
ARE MONITORING THE SWD FILTRATION OF VERY SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING AIR
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VLY WHICH WILL
COMPLICATE P-TYPE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HAVE INCLUDED EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY
NEW YORK INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
DISPARITY EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LARGE-SCALE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SW-NE. SHALLOW
POLAR AIR MASS BEGAN TO FILTER SWD THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN
ZONES...AND HAS CONTINUE TO DO SO ON LIGHT NORTH TO NELY WINDS
ACROSS THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VLY AS FAR SOUTH AS BTV THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY STRONG SWWD
THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY...WHERE MSS HAS SEEN NELY WIND GUSTS TO
28KTS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S. WITH THIS
REINFORCING SHOT OF SUB-FREEZING AIR...FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IS
PARTICULARLY TROUBLING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY. WITH STRONG
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION...SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO FZRA ACROSS FAR NRN
NY BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL QPF IS NEAR 0.50 IN...AND COULD EASILY SEE
ICE ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 0.25 IN ON TOP OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL AROUND THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR 40F AT KRUT...AND MUCH OF THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VLY WILL TRANSITION
FROM A RA/SN MIX TO PLAIN RAIN BY MIDNIGHT. THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VLY OF
VT MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE LEFT
BTV AREA OUT OF ADVISORY FOR EXPECTED WARMING. THESE TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING.

CENTRAL AND NERN VT...FEEL THAT FZRA THREAT IS LESS HERE. BOTH THE
GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AROUND 30/06Z. BELIEVE WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING THAT WARM ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LAYER INTO N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT WILL BE MITIGATED AS
COMPARED TO NRN NY. THUS...HAVE DE-EMPHASIZED FREEZING RAIN THREAT
IN N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT TONIGHT...AND HAVE BOOSTED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES /WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATION AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS/. MAX PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY LIGHTENING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
MAIN BAND OF FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING
ROAD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
STALLED UPPER LOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...WITH ISO TO SCT
RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH POSITION THROUGH
THE OHIO VLY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS PERSIST AS
TO SFC LOW TRACK THEREAFTER. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER
TRACKING THE LOW TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK /40N 70W/ AT 985MB CENTRAL
PRESSURED BY 18Z TUESDAY...AND THEN ENEWD SOUTH OF CAPE COD. HAVE
CONTINUED TO PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS FURTHER OFFSHORE.
HAVE UNDERCUT SREF 6HRLY POPS BASED ON INFLUENCE OF NAM MEMBERS AND
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...WE FINALLY BUILD A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EWD INTO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND PARTIAL CLEARING APPEARS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD ACROSS NRN NY...BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...DIFFICULTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO
TIMING/STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE REGION. WEAK
WAA LIGHT SNOWS TO PUSH ACROSS REGION DURING WED NT/THURSDAY...THEN
AGAIN DURING FRIDAY WHERE SOME MIXED RA/SN POSSBL. THEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
RA/SN DURING SAT/SUN TIME FRAME. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY MOST
ENSEMBLE/OPERATIONAL SOLNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WITH A PNA
REGIME CHANGE OFFERED BY SHORT RANGE TELECONNECTION FCSTS...SEE NO
REASON TO DISCOUNT SOLN AT THIS TIME. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN EVENTUAL
TRACK OF SYSTEM...WITH LATEST RUNS NOW TRENDING NORTH AND WEST WITH
SFC LOW. WITH LACK OF STRONG BLOCKING UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE AND
SOURCE OF COLD AIR...A MEAN SLV STORM TRACK APPEARS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE. AT THIS TIME WILL OFFER HIGH CHC RA/SN WITH THIS
FEATURE...LEAVING P-TYPE DETAILS AND TEMPS TO FUTURE SHIFTS. DEEP
AND POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE NATURE OF UPPER TROUGH WOULD ARGUE HOWEVER
FOR THREAT OF HVY PCPN THESE PERIODS AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS
WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
CONDS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVRNT
HOURS AS BROAD SCALE WAA PATTERN AND ASSOC PCPN AFFECT REGION. AS
DISCUSSED ABV...LATEST AVBL PARTIAL THICKNESS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
A MAINLY -SN AND/OR -SNPL EVENT ERN VT...-SNPL AND/OR -FZRAPL EVENT
CHVLY...MAINLY -RA SRN VT...AND -SNPL TO -FZRA OR -RA NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT A 6 HOUR EVENT MOST LOCALES...WITH LONGEST
DURATION ACROSS SLV...WHERE PROLONGED -FZRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OTHER THAN MODERATE NERLY GRADIENT ACROSS SLV...WINDS TO REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. AS PCPN LIFTS OUT OF REGION LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...AMPLE LOW LVL RH SHOULD LINGER ACROSS AREA. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY AVBL MOS/FOUS DATA AND WILL MAINTAIN RATHER
PESSIMISTIC CONDS AREA WIDE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON DESPITE LITTLE
PCPN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019
     UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ026>031-034-087 UNTIL 7 AM
     MONDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


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    80

References

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