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SKIVT-L  January 2006, Week 5

SKIVT-L January 2006, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 29 Jan 2006 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (474 lines)

Expires:200601292115;;138574
FPUS51 KBTV 290801
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-292115-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
300 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST MONDAY...

.TODAY...BECOMING CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY WITH 
AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. 
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST THIS 
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN 
EARLY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LIGHT ICE 
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THROUGH 
MID MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.WEDNESDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN has been proposed for termination. NOAA's NWS will be accepting
comments on the proposed termination until January 31, 2006. Please learn
more about the termination and how to leave a comment [2]here
   
          
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 290734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
234 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY...SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA AND THIS
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.  THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
LIGHT SNOW WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS BY EVENING.
MAIN SURFACE AND 850 MB LOWS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE
BY TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY FEATURES FORMING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BY 06Z TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LIMIT THE WARM AIR ALOFT FROM MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.  AS A RESULT...THERMAL PROFILE
WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MOST AREAS.
EXPECTING ANOTHER INCH OR SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO MIXED
PRECIPITATION.  IT APPEARS ALL BUT THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN
RUTLAND COUNTY WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AS MAINLY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BASED ON ABOVE THINKING...WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA STARTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

MOST FAVORABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER ON
MONDAY.  BY MID MORNING EXPECT THERMAL PROFILES TO BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR RAIN ALL AREAS.  WITH LIMITED FORCING...WOULD EXPECT ONLY A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40 DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.  INITIAL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION AND IS
WEAKENING AT THE SAME TIME.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT ANY
LIGHT RAIN CHANGING BACK TO SOME LIGHT SNOW.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME AS FORCING MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WITH FOCUS ON POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW
YORK...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURED. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION IT WILL LIKELY BE
DIFFICULT TO BREAK UP THIS LOW CLOUD COVER THATS IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
FURTHER WEST...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGHOUT ALL OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK AFTER 21Z. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION FROM 21Z TO 24Z...WITH A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN. AFTER 00Z EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO BE 3 MILES OR
LESS IN SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN...WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019
     FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM MONDAY.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087 FROM 3
     PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 290208 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
908 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2006

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
OVERALL FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT
THESE CHANGES HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE TEXT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS TONIGHT IN THE DATABASE TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST ANY THICKER MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SO ADJUSTING TIMING OF CLOUDS IN THE
GRIDS...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATER SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 400 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2006)

SYNOPSIS...
VERY MILD LATE JANUARY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S. DOWNSLOPE WLY/SWLY FLOW FROM THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS ALLOWED FOR A FEW LOW 50S /KPLB AND
ELSEWHERE/ ON THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC/ERN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO SAG SWD INTO THE NRN
ZONES BY MIDNIGHT WITH SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THRU 29/12Z. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NERN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
WILL PASS MOSTLY DRY AS DEEP-LAYER UVV REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
FA.

MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS NERN KS AT 28/2030Z IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND INTO
SERN ONTARIO BY 00Z MONDAY. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT EAST OF THE SFC LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF FA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PATTERN APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SN
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HAVE POSTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT WRN RUTLAND COUNTY VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION OF NY/VT. LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE WITH ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS COMPLICATED BY ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS...AND HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL COOLING CAN OCCUR TONIGHT WITH FROPA
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. FEEL MOST CONFIDENT ABOVE POTENTIAL FOR
ICING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SECONDARILY ACROSS NERN
VT. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED VALLEYS /CT RIVER AND ST. LAWRENCE/ IN WSW TO
INDICATE THAT THESE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS TOO FAST TO
BRING WINDS AROUND TO SLY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND THUS IS INDICATING MOSTLY RAIN. PREFER THE NAM
HERE...WITH ENELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOCKED IN CONSISTENT WITH VALLEY
ORIENTATION MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND ZR ACCUMULATION UPWARDS OF .3".
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH GFS AND NAM ALSO INDICATE ICING POTENTIAL
FROM MPV EASTWARD. FOLLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SN AT THE ONSET /1-2"
POSSIBLE/...BOTH MODELS INDICATE BETWEEN .3-.4" OF FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING N-CENTRAL VT EWD
TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AS WARM FRONT LIFT RAPIDLY NWD...ANTICIPATE
PRECIPITATION TO BECOME LIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE CHOSEN AN END TIME TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
ACCORDINGLY. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ICE
ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR AROUND BTV...HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE
ABILITY OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO RETAIN SUB FREEZING AIR MASS
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH LATER UPDATES.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SECOND
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
REGION AND MEAN LARGE SCALE TROUGH POSITION WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. THE 12Z
NAM BROUGHT THIS SECONDARY LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN
PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS...OR SUBSEQUENT 18Z NAM. INDICATIONS AT THIS
POINT SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NEAR OR SOUTH OF 40N 70W AND
WOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC/LIKELY -SN
ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE...
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WITH SUCH FAST PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS
REMAINS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE W/AVBL OP/ENSEMBLE SOLNS SHOWING
LITTLE RUN TO RUN/DAY TO DAY CONTINUITY. OF MORE CERTAINTY IN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW REGIME IS THAT TEMPS IN GENERAL SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABV
MID WINTER NORMS...WITH ANY INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO
LOWER 48 STRONGLY INHIBITED BY FAST E-W FLOW. INDEED THIS HAS BEEN
THE CASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE PAST 4 TO 6 WKS. SOME
INDICATIONS IN LONGER TERM ENSEMBLE FCSTS OF PNA/NAO TELECONNECTION
INDICES OF A DISCREET PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS A COLDER REGIME IN
ABOUT 10 DAYS OR SO...BUT AT THIS POINT FAR TOO PREMATURE TO FOCUS
ON ANY DETAILS.

MAIN SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WILL
BE TWO DISCRETE WAA EVENTS AND ASSOC PCPN. FIRST SYSTEM TO LIKELY
AFFECT AREA DURING WED NT INTO FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
PARTIAL THICKNESS PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS/FLURRIES W/THIS EVENT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE. SECOND SYSTEM TO THEN PUSH NORTHEAST INTO REGION BY
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. 00Z/06Z/12Z RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY QUITE POOR
IN TERMS OF QPF/TIMING/PTYPE. NONETHELESS...WILL OFFER WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOWS TO PUSH INTO REGION LATER ON FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

AVIATION...
WITH SUCH FAST PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS
REMAINS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE W/AVBL OP/ENSEMBLE SOLNS SHOWING
LITTLE RUN TO RUN/DAY TO DAY CONTINUITY. OF MORE CERTAINTY IN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW REGIME IS THAT TEMPS IN GENERAL SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABV
MID WINTER NORMS...WITH ANY INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO
LOWER 48 STRONGLY INHIBITED BY FAST E-W FLOW. INDEED THIS HAS BEEN
THE CASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE PAST 4 TO 6 WKS. SOME
INDICATIONS IN LONGER TERM ENSEMBLE FCSTS OF PNA/NAO TELECONNECTION
INDICES OF A DISCREET PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS A COLDER REGIME IN
ABOUT 10 DAYS OR SO...BUT AT THIS POINT FAR TOO PREMATURE TO FOCUS
ON ANY DETAILS.

MAIN SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WILL
BE TWO DISCRETE WAA EVENTS AND ASSOC PCPN. FIRST SYSTEM TO LIKELY
AFFECT AREA DURING WED NT INTO FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
PARTIAL THICKNESS PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS/FLURRIES W/THIS EVENT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE. SECOND SYSTEM TO THEN PUSH NORTHEAST INTO REGION BY
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. 00Z/06Z/12Z RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY QUITE POOR
IN TERMS OF QPF/TIMING/PTYPE. NONETHELESS...WILL OFFER WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOWS TO PUSH INTO REGION LATER ON FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019
     FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM MONDAY.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087 FROM 3
     PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON








FXUS61 KBTV 282103
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MILD LATE JANUARY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S. DOWNSLOPE WLY/SWLY FLOW FROM THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS ALLOWED FOR A FEW LOW 50S /KPLB AND
ELSEWHERE/ ON THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC/ERN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO SAG SWD INTO THE NRN
ZONES BY MIDNIGHT WITH SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THRU 29/12Z. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NERN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
WILL PASS MOSTLY DRY AS DEEP-LAYER UVV REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
FA.

MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS NERN KS AT 28/2030Z IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND INTO
SERN ONTARIO BY 00Z MONDAY. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT EAST OF THE SFC LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF FA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PATTERN APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SN
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HAVE POSTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT WRN RUTLAND COUNTY VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION OF NY/VT. LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE WITH ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS COMPLICATED BY ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS...AND HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL COOLING CAN OCCUR TONIGHT WITH FROPA
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. FEEL MOST CONFIDENT ABOVE POTENTIAL FOR
ICING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SECONDARILY ACROSS NERN
VT. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED VALLEYS /CT RIVER AND ST. LAWRENCE/ IN WSW TO
INDICATE THAT THESE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS TOO FAST TO
BRING WINDS AROUND TO SLY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND THUS IS INDICATING MOSTLY RAIN. PREFER THE NAM
HERE...WITH ENELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOCKED IN CONSISTENT WITH VALLEY
ORIENTATION MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND ZR ACCUMULATION UPWARDS OF .3".
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH GFS AND NAM ALSO INDICATE ICING POTENTIAL
FROM MPV EASTWARD. FOLLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SN AT THE ONSET /1-2"
POSSIBLE/...BOTH MODELS INDICATE BETWEEN .3-.4" OF FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING N-CENTRAL VT EWD
TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AS WARM FRONT LIFT RAPIDLY NWD...ANTICIPATE
PRECIPITATION TO BECOME LIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE CHOSEN AN END TIME TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
ACCORDINGLY. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ICE
ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR AROUND BTV...HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE
ABILITY OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO RETAIN SUB FREEZING AIR MASS
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH LATER UPDATES.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SECOND
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
REGION AND MEAN LARGE SCALE TROUGH POSITION WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. THE 12Z
NAM BROUGHT THIS SECONDARY LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN
PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS...OR SUBSEQUENT 18Z NAM. INDICATIONS AT THIS
POINT SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NEAR OR SOUTH OF 40N 70W AND
WOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC/LIKELY -SN
ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE...
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WITH SUCH FAST PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS
REMAINS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE W/AVBL OP/ENSEMBLE SOLNS SHOWING
LITTLE RUN TO RUN/DAY TO DAY CONTINUITY. OF MORE CERTAINTY IN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW REGIME IS THAT TEMPS IN GENERAL SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABV
MID WINTER NORMS...WITH ANY INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO
LOWER 48 STRONGLY INHIBITED BY FAST E-W FLOW. INDEED THIS HAS BEEN
THE CASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE PAST 4 TO 6 WKS. SOME
INDICATIONS IN LONGER TERM ENSEMBLE FCSTS OF PNA/NAO TELECONNECTION
INDICES OF A DISCREET PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS A COLDER REGIME IN
ABOUT 10 DAYS OR SO...BUT AT THIS POINT FAR TOO PREMATURE TO FOCUS
ON ANY DETAILS.

MAIN SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WILL
BE TWO DISCRETE WAA EVENTS AND ASSOC PCPN. FIRST SYSTEM TO LIKELY
AFFECT AREA DURING WED NT INTO FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
PARTIAL THICKNESS PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS/FLURRIES W/THIS EVENT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE. SECOND SYSTEM TO THEN PUSH NORTHEAST INTO REGION BY
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. 00Z/06Z/12Z RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY QUITE POOR
IN TERMS OF QPF/TIMING/PTYPE. NONETHELESS...WILL OFFER WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOWS TO PUSH INTO REGION LATER ON FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH SUCH FAST PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS
REMAINS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE W/AVBL OP/ENSEMBLE SOLNS SHOWING
LITTLE RUN TO RUN/DAY TO DAY CONTINUITY. OF MORE CERTAINTY IN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW REGIME IS THAT TEMPS IN GENERAL SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABV
MID WINTER NORMS...WITH ANY INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO
LOWER 48 STRONGLY INHIBITED BY FAST E-W FLOW. INDEED THIS HAS BEEN
THE CASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE PAST 4 TO 6 WKS. SOME
INDICATIONS IN LONGER TERM ENSEMBLE FCSTS OF PNA/NAO TELECONNECTION
INDICES OF A DISCREET PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS A COLDER REGIME IN
ABOUT 10 DAYS OR SO...BUT AT THIS POINT FAR TOO PREMATURE TO FOCUS
ON ANY DETAILS.

MAIN SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WILL
BE TWO DISCRETE WAA EVENTS AND ASSOC PCPN. FIRST SYSTEM TO LIKELY
AFFECT AREA DURING WED NT INTO FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
PARTIAL THICKNESS PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS/FLURRIES W/THIS EVENT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE. SECOND SYSTEM TO THEN PUSH NORTHEAST INTO REGION BY
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. 00Z/06Z/12Z RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY QUITE POOR
IN TERMS OF QPF/TIMING/PTYPE. NONETHELESS...WILL OFFER WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOWS TO PUSH INTO REGION LATER ON FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019
     FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM MONDAY.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087 FROM 3
     PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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October 2008, Week 1
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February 2006, Week 1
January 2006, Week 5
January 2006, Week 4
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January 2006, Week 1
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