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SKIVT-L  February 2006, Week 3

SKIVT-L February 2006, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 16 Feb 2006 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (548 lines)

Expires:200602162315;;563905
FPUS51 KBTV 160956
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU FEB 16 2006


VTZ006-008-017-162315-
LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER...UNDERHILL
455 AM EST THU FEB 16 2006

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MID MORNING. A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING. BECOMING WINDY. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH BUT
INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 50 MPH ALONG
EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND TURNING MUCH COLDER. EARLY HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 40S...THEN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE TEENS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO. WEST WINDS 30 TO
40 MPH...DECREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW
30 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 25 BELOW.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 5 ABOVE. NORTHWEST
WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 25 BELOW.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
10 TO 15.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND ZERO.
.PRESIDENTS DAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN has been proposed for termination. NOAA's NWS will be accepting
comments on the proposed termination until January 31, 2006. Please learn
more about the termination and how to leave a comment [2]here
   
          
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 161102
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
602 AM EST THU FEB 16 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WELL...A THREE-RING CIRCUS WITH ICE SKATING...ROLLER COASTERS...
A WIND MACHINE AND MORE.

A VRY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND THAT'S RATHER EVIDENT WITH A 60KT JET ARD
2-3K BFR AND AFT ARCTIC FROPA. INITIALLY...INVERSION CAPPING WNDS
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT AFT FROPA..."WATCH OUT".

FIRST...BEGINNING OF SHFT STNRY BDNRY WAS STL N OF ST LWRNC VLY WITH
TMPS WELL ABV FRZG AND BEHIND THE CURVE TO ALLOW CAA DRAINAGE FM ENE.
HWVR...PATIENCE AND CLIMO WON OUT WITH AT 10Z 04008KT 28/17 WITH
COLDER...DRIER UPSTREAM (NE). THIS HAS MADE IT DOWN THE VLY TOWARDS
KART AND NOW ITS JUST AWAITING PCPN FM SW TO NE. LATEST COMPOSITES
INCLDG BUFCAN SHWS ITS COMING AND WL LKLY START AS A WINTRY MIX BUT
WITH TIME AS H8 WAA INCRS BCM A PRIMARILY FZRA EVENT FOR NRN ST
LWRNC VLY BUT EVENTUALLY CHG TO RAIN IN SW ST LWRNC VLY WHERE COLD
AIR IS NOT AS ENTRNCHED. THEREFORE...FOLLOW YDY THINKING AND CONT
WNTR WX ADV FOR ST LWRNC VLY. ATTM...XPCTG 0.1-0.25 INCH ICE
ACCRETION AND JUST NEED TO LOOK AT QPF.

SECOND...SFC LOW DEPARTS INTO QUEBEC FRI MRNG FOLLOWED BY STG ARCTIC
FNT THAT WL BE TRVLG SOME 50+ KTS IN FORWARD SPEED MVG FM KART-KCON
BTWN 12 AND 18Z!!! INCREDIBLE ISALLOBARIC FALL/RISE COUPLETS AND VRY
STG CAA WITH H8 TMPS AT KBTV FM +5C TO -10C BTWN 15-18Z AND -18C AT
21Z. MOMENTUM TRANSFERS SHLD BE INCREDIBLE AND LOOKING AT A PTNL
WIDESPREAD HIGH WND EVENT WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES AND ADD
SUB-ZERO TMPS AND COLDER WNDCHLS...SOME PTNL PROBLEMS FRI AFTN/NGT!!!

THIRD...HOW COLD?! AND WITH STG WNDS WL NEED TO BE LOOKING AT
WNDCHL CONCERNS FOR FRI NGT/SAT. GIVEN H8 TMPS AND REFERRING TO
BUFKIT I AM MUCH COLDER THAN 3 HRLY ON ANY MOS GUIDANCE AS -18C AT
H8 AND 27F AT SFC FOR 00Z SAT DOESN'T ADD UP!

ON SAT...ANTR STG ARCTIC S/W AND REINFORCING COLD SHOT ON SAT
DELIVERS H8 TMPS -24 TO -28C...THUS DON'T BUY DEFAULTED MEX VALUES
OF TEENS AND WENT 10 DEGS COLDER WITH TMPS BARELY NUDGING UPWARDS
FM SAT MRNG LOWS.

SOME GRADIENT AND RETURN FLOW CLDS CUD PREVENT A MAJOR COOL DOWN
SAT NGT...THUS HAVE PLACED IT CLOSE TO THE VEST.

GRDL MODERATING WITH SFC HIGH ACRS OH RVR VLY AND H8 WAA PTTRN WITH
SOME MINOR ENERGY FOR SOME FLURRIES/-SHSN SUN AND TMPS REBOUNDING
INTO THE TEENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHGS TO XNTD ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
COND WILL SLOWLY DETEROIRATE AT SITES DURING FORCAST W/ LINGERING
FRNT OVER FA. CD AIR NORTH OF FRNT WILL PLAY ROLE IN BRINGING MIXED
PRECIP AT TIMES TO ALL SITES(KMPV/KSLK WILL SEE -SN/PL W/ RAIN AND
KMSS WILL SEE ALL INCLUDING SOME -FZRA...KBTV -SN TO ALL -RA) TIL
FRNT LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AFT 00Z-02Z...CHANGING ALL OVER TO
MOSTLY RAIN. COND WILL THUS RANGE FROM VFR EARLY ON IN FORECAST
PERIOD DOWN TO LOW IFR W/ CEILINGS AT TIMES IN N NY BLW OVC010 AFT
16Z. LGT WINDS ALL SITES WITH FRNT LINGERING...BECMG SSW AT
KBTV/KMPV/KSLK 13-16Z AND INCR TO OVER 20KTS AT TIMES AFT 00Z. KMSS
WILL SEE WIND SHIFT LAST TO SSW AFT 00Z. HIR TRRN WILL BE OBSCD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR VTZ003-006-008-016>019 FROM MIDNIGHT
     FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR VTZ001-002-004-005-007-009>012 FROM 7 AM
     FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NYZ026>028-035-087 FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10
     PM FRIDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ026-027-087 UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NYZ029>031-034 FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 10
     PM FRIDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...JN








FXUS61 KBTV 160305
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1005 PM EST WED FEB 15 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY IN SRN QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL RESULT IN ADVANCING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION REACHING
FAR NRN NY AFTER SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC HAS MADE LITTLE IF ANY
SWD PROGRESS THIS EVENING. THAT...COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON IR IMAGERY...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE LOWS
FOR TONIGHT BY SEVERAL DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PARTICULARLY
MILD IN THE CHAMPLAIN VLY /46F AT KBTV AT 2Z/...AND MAY HAVE
TROUBLE REACHING THE PROJECTED MID 30S BY EARLY MORNING. THIS ALSO
FOLLOWS OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 54F AT KBTV THIS
AFTERNOON...BEATING THE PREVIOUS RECORD SET IN 1908 BY 2 DEGREES.
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH IS QUITE SHARP...SO TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY.

HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO DOWNPLAY ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VLY TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES NOW APPEAR TOO MILD. HAVE
MENTIONED PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN ONLY AND REMOVED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE ZONES AND GRIDS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VLY.
THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR FREEZING
RAIN IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY GIVEN THESE TRENDS. SINCE THE ADVISORY
WAS POSTED ONLY ABOUT 6 HRS AGO...FEEL IT IS BEST TO LEAVE IN
PLACE FOR NOW AND ALLOW MID SHIFT TO REEVALUATE...DESPITE
DECREASING CONFIDENCE.

LASTLY...AN EARLY LOOK AT THE 16/00Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT WLY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING IN NRN
NY AND AROUND MIDDAY IN CENTRAL AND NRN VERMONT. THIS SCENARIO HAS
BEEN SHOWN CONSISTENTLY FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS IS PRESENTLY CONVEYED IN A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT...ALONG WITH
THE SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 527 PM EST WED FEB 15 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FRONT TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY...WITH GOOD
OVERRUNNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO
SUPPORT SOME SNOW INITIALLY...THEN A CHANGE OVER TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN TO
PERSIST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO DRAIN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THIS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND BE NORTH OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO PULL IN ENOUGH WARM
AIR INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO CHANGE FREEZING RAIN OVER TO ALL
RAIN BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
OCCUR AROUND 00Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY.

ON FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A HIGH WIND WATCH/WIND ADVISORY
FOR FRIDAY...AS FEEL IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO PUT ONE UP. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REEXAMINE THIS SITUATION THOUGH. RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY MORNING WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...NEAR OR BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLE IN.

ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES...AS A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR
SNOW SQUALLS ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS OVER COURSE OF EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST
WILL BE A RETURN TO COLD CONDS WITH ON AND OFF FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN
THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE
SOLNS CONTINUE TO PAINT RATHER ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTER CONDS SAT NT
INTO SUNDAY AS CORE OF VERY COLD AIR (-25 TO -30C AT 850 HPA)
TRAVERSES AREA. WINDS TO BE IN PROCESS OF SLOWLY ABATING SAT
NT...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT REGIME BY SUNDAY...THUS ANY WIND CHILL
CONCERNS TO DIMINISH DURING THE PERIOD. NONETHELESS VERY COLD CONDS
ON TAP SAT NT...AND HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE TEENS DURING
SUNDAY ALONG WITH SCT FLURRIES/SHSN...ESP INVOF LK CHAMPLAIN WHERE
SOME STEAMING AND LK INDUCED CAPE EVIDENT OFF MODEL SOUNDING
PROFILES. MID LVL FLOW FLATTENS AND TEMPS MODIFY ACCORDINGLY DURING
MON/TUE...THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW MID FEB NORMS. MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW FROM 250-270 SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST SOME CONTINUATION OF SHSN
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO SRN SLV/NRN DACKS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS WELL. THEN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOC ARCTIC
FRONT SENDS REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREA
DURING MID WEEK ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHSN ACTIVITY.
AIRMASS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PREDECESSOR...THUS TEMPS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM EARLY WEEK READINGS.

AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDS AREA WIDE THROUGH MOST OF FCST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS AREA. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ABATE TO LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONT/QUE
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS EXTREME NRN PORTIONS OF FA LATE. WILL
ADVERTISE GENERALLY SCT-BKN MID TO UPPER LVL CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
PERIOD AND LEAVE CONDS VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KMSS WHERE
FRONTAL BNDRY SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND WIND FLOW TURNS
NERLY ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS/VIS. BROAD WAA PRECIP SHOULD BE IN
PROCESS OF OVERSPREADING NRN NY SITES BY LATE IN FCST PERIOD AND
WILL ADVERTISE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWS AT
KSLK/KMSS ACCORDINGLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ026-027-087 FROM 7 AM THURSDAY
     TO 1 AM FRIDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS








FXUS61 KBTV 152227
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
527 PM EST WED FEB 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FRONT TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY...WITH GOOD
OVERRUNNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO
SUPPORT SOME SNOW INITIALLY...THEN A CHANGE OVER TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN TO
PERSIST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO DRAIN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THIS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND BE NORTH OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO PULL IN ENOUGH WARM
AIR INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO CHANGE FREEZING RAIN OVER TO ALL
RAIN BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
OCCUR AROUND 00Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY.

ON FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A HIGH WIND WATCH/WIND ADVISORY
FOR FRIDAY...AS FEEL IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO PUT ONE UP. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REEXAMINE THIS SITUATION THOUGH. RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY MORNING WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...NEAR OR BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLE IN.

ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES...AS A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR
SNOW SQUALLS ON SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS OVER COURSE OF EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST
WILL BE A RETURN TO COLD CONDS WITH ON AND OFF FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN
THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE
SOLNS CONTINUE TO PAINT RATHER ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTER CONDS SAT NT
INTO SUNDAY AS CORE OF VERY COLD AIR (-25 TO -30C AT 850 HPA)
TRAVERSES AREA. WINDS TO BE IN PROCESS OF SLOWLY ABATING SAT
NT...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT REGIME BY SUNDAY...THUS ANY WIND CHILL
CONCERNS TO DIMINISH DURING THE PERIOD. NONETHELESS VERY COLD CONDS
ON TAP SAT NT...AND HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE TEENS DURING
SUNDAY ALONG WITH SCT FLURRIES/SHSN...ESP INVOF LK CHAMPLAIN WHERE
SOME STEAMING AND LK INDUCED CAPE EVIDENT OFF MODEL SOUNDING
PROFILES. MID LVL FLOW FLATTENS AND TEMPS MODIFY ACCORDINGLY DURING
MON/TUE...THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW MID FEB NORMS. MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW FROM 250-270 SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST SOME CONTINUATION OF SHSN
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO SRN SLV/NRN DACKS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS WELL. THEN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOC ARCTIC
FRONT SENDS REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREA
DURING MID WEEK ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHSN ACTIVITY.
AIRMASS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PREDECESSOR...THUS TEMPS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM EARLY WEEK READINGS.
&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDS AREA WIDE THROUGH MOST OF FCST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS AREA. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ABATE TO LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONT/QUE
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS EXTREME NRN PORTIONS OF FA LATE. WILL
ADVERTISE GENERALLY SCT-BKN MID TO UPPER LVL CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
PERIOD AND LEAVE CONDS VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KMSS WHERE
FRONTAL BNDRY SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND WIND FLOW TURNS
NERLY ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS/VIS. BROAD WAA PRECIP SHOULD BE IN
PROCESS OF OVERSPREADING NRN NY SITES BY LATE IN FCST PERIOD AND
WILL ADVERTISE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWS AT
KSLK/KMSS ACCORDINGLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ026-027-087 FROM 7 AM THURSDAY
     TO 1 AM FRIDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG









FXUS61 KBTV 152223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
522 PM EST WED FEB 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FRONT TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY...WITH GOOD
OVERRUNNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO
SUPPORT SOME SNOW INITIALLY...THEN A CHANGE OVER TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN TO
PERSIST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO DRAIN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THIS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND BE NORTH OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO PULL IN ENOUGH WARM
AIR INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO CHANGE FREEZING RAIN OVER TO ALL
RAIN BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
OCCUR AROUND 00Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY.

ON FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A HIGH WIND WATCH/WIND ADVISORY
FOR FRIDAY...AS FEEL IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO PUT ONE UP. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REEXAMINE THIS SITUATION THOUGH. RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY MORNING WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...NEAR OR BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLE IN. ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES
NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES...
AS A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS ON SATURDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS OVER COURSE OF EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST
WILL BE A RETURN TO COLD CONDS WITH ON AND OFF FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN
THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE
SOLNS CONTINUE TO PAINT RATHER ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTER CONDS SAT NT
INTO SUNDAY AS CORE OF VERY COLD AIR (-25 TO -30C AT 850 HPA)
TRAVERSES AREA. WINDS TO BE IN PROCESS OF SLOWLY ABATING SAT
NT...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT REGIME BY SUNDAY...THUS ANY WIND CHILL
CONCERNS TO DIMINISH DURING THE PERIOD. NONETHELESS VERY COLD CONDS
ON TAP SAT NT...AND HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE TEENS DURING
SUNDAY ALONG WITH SCT FLURRIES/SHSN...ESP INVOF LK CHAMPLAIN WHERE
SOME STEAMING AND LK INDUCED CAPE EVIDENT OFF MODEL SOUNDING
PROFILES.
MID LVL FLOW FLATTENS AND TEMPS MODIFY ACCORDINGLY DURING
MON/TUE...THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW MID FEB NORMS. MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW FROM 250-270 SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST SOME CONTINUATION OF SHSN
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO SRN SLV/NRN DACKS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS WELL. THEN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOC ARCTIC
FRONT SENDS REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREA
DURING MID WEEK ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHSN ACTIVITY.
AIRMASS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PREDECESSOR...THUS TEMPS
&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDS AREA WIDE THROUGH MOST OF FCST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS AREA. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ABATE TO LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONT/QUE
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS EXTREME NRN PORTIONS OF FA LATE. WILL
ADVERTISE GENERALLY SCT-BKN MID TO UPPER LVL CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
PERIOD AND LEAVE CONDS VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KMSS WHERE
FRONTAL BNDRY SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND WIND FLOW TURNS
NERLY ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS/VIS. BROAD WAA PRECIP SHOULD BE IN
PROCESS OF OVERSPREADING NRN NY SITES BY LATE IN FCST PERIOD AND
WILL ADVERTISE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWS AT
KSLK/KMSS ACCORDINGLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ026-027-087 FROM 7 AM THURSDAY
     TO 1 AM FRIDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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October 2010, Week 3
October 2010, Week 2
October 2010, Week 1
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September 2010, Week 4
September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
September 2010, Week 1
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August 2010, Week 4
August 2010, Week 3
August 2010, Week 2
August 2010, Week 1
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July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
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June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
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November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
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October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
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September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
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August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
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August 2009, Week 1
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July 2009, Week 3
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July 2009, Week 1
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February 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 4
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January 2007, Week 1
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