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SKIVT-L  February 2006, Week 3

SKIVT-L February 2006, Week 3

Subject:

Weather Outlook...Several Chances for Snow next 10 days

From:

Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 20 Feb 2006 22:03:14 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (81 lines)

Winter *is* here for at least a 10 day visit.  Hopefully this is the 
period of beginning of a period I've been waiting for at the end of Feb 
and early March.  Last week's column was pretty down and I can't denie the 
fact that even when it looks good or has been cold and somewhat 
snowy...nature still threw us Friday's curveball of thaw then deep 
freeze.  Besides that episode, the past two weeks haven't been bad at 
all.  I've had several powder days, a 10-incher, an 8-incher, and a few 
little 3-4" ones at Stowe and in the Mansfield backcountry. 

That looks to continue through early March, we just don't need any more 
hiccups.

Again, we find ourselves recovering...some areas should recover quite well 
over the next week with a shot at gold next week.  The pattern is ripe, 
its a split flow with moisture moving along the southern branch.  The flow 
is very zonal right now but will begin to amplify later this week in the 
Thurs-Fri time frame and then could go to town in the Sun-Tue time frame.

TEMPERATURES:

Temperatures should will be near seasonal averages through Saturday with 
lows in the 5-15F range and highs in the 25-35F range...rising only above 
freezing in the larger valleys.  Weather highlights will be light snowfall 
tomorrow/tomorrow night...moderate snowfall on Thurs-Friday...and then 
something Sun-Tues.  All precip next 10 days will be frozen.

WIND:
Wind strong enough to affect lift operations and/or any other recreational 
interests are not expected until early next week (Mon or Tues).

TUESDAY-FRIDAY WEATHER:

Tomorrow, clipper approaches and light snow showers will overspread the 
north country, mainly over the higher terrain.  This system does not have 
a lot of moisture to work with at all, however, an upper level vort max 
tracks right over the northern Adirondacks, Burlington, and northern 
Greens.  This will enhance snowfall dynamically across the northern tier 
tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Snowfall accumulations should be anywhere 
from only a trace to 2" everywhere except up to 3" across the northern 
slopes of the Adirondacks and the spine from Jay to Mansfield.

Moisture exits the region but only breifly on Wednesday morning.  Mountain 
snow showers should begin to build again by Wednesday evening with an area 
of light snow moving across the region on Wednesday night with no more 
than an inch or so by Thursday morning.  Light snow continues during the 
day on Thursday but with little, if any, accumulation, as a slow moving 
clipper pushes in on Thursday night.  This thing looks like it has some 
juice and may also tap some Atlantic moisture.  Again, heaviest snowfall 
looks to be across the north with snowfall amounts tapering as you head 
southward from the Canadian border.  This looks be a fluffy, 3-7" snowfall 
from Killington northward on the Spine and in the Adirondacks from south 
to north by Friday morning.  This will be an interesting system to watch 
for me as it'll give clues to what happens over the weekend and into early 
next week.

NEXT WEEKEND/EARL NEXT WEEK:

Another area of energy moves across the US/CA border in the northern 
stream that is quickly amplifying.  Energy in the southwest/four corners 
region gets ejected in the southern stream...where do they meet?  All 
model guidence is showing that they do not phase until off the New England 
coast where the energy cuts off and deepens rapidly.  It will bring 
another very cold shot of air but this time upslope snow looks to be a 
good possibility.  So without going into much more detail, this time 
period looks ripe for snowfall, likely significant somewhere in New 
England with a classic "Miller B" type east coast storm (clipper dives 
southeastward out of SE Canada or the Great Lakes, phases with southern 
jet energy and quickly closes off near the coast, drags cold air down and 
continues to throw back moisture over the region as winds increase).  Even 
if it occurs too late and too far northward, significant upslope snowfall 
would occur.

Enjoy what this winter has to offer us.    

-Scott

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