Expires:200603072200;;011419
FPUS51 KBTV 070855
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-072200-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
354 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2006

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LIGHT WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 
TEENS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE 
MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 
70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 
MID 30S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN 
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 070805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
305 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU WED. UPR TROF TO CONT
TO MOVE DOWN ACRS THE FA EARLY TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...THEN WK WAA
TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA ON WED. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE
FA TODAY. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA LATER ON WED. PW VALUES
ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AOB 0.30" THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SHRINKING AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY RETURNS ACRS
THE FA ATTM. WILL OPT TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING -SHSN ACRS THE FA AFTER
ZFP ISSUANCE WITH THE STF. IR SAT PIX SHOW A FEW CLDS ACRS THE NRN
TIER ZONES ATTM. BESIDES THESE CLDS TODAY AND SOME INCREASING CLDS
FROM THE WEST ACRS THE FA BY LATER ON WED...THINGS LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S TODAY AND IN THE
M30S-L40S ON WED. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS TONITE. NORTHERLY SFC
WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA TO BECOME LT FOR THE MAJORITY OF TONITE AND
WED.

PRELIM WRK ZONES AND ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 AM.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. FRONTOGENESIS
BECOMES MAXIMIZED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A 2 OR 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION BEFORE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES OVER.  BY AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN FOR ALL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
30S.  WILL MENTION LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALL AREAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEN TAPER OFF TO CHANCE WORDING OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA GETS
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE EVEN GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASES THE CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
40S ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY...POSSIBLY HITTING 50 DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HAVE OVERNIGHT
LOWS ONLY TWO DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...
SOME CLD COVER TO AFFECT THE VT TAF SITES EARLY TODAY...OTRW CAVU.
ANY NORTHERLY SFC WIND-FLOW ACRS THE FA TODAY TO BECOME LT TONITE.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MURRAY
LONG TERM...EVENSON





FXUS61 KBTV 070330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EST MON MAR 6 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS SENT OUT WITH JUST A COUPLE OF MINOR FIRST PERIOD
ADJUSTMENTS. BASED ON CURRENT READINGS...LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN ADRNDKS
INTO SINGLE DIGITS. LOWERED WINDS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALL ZONES AS
THEY ARE ALREADY LIGHT OR CALM IN MOST AREAS. STRENGTHENING SHRTWV
DROPPING SEWRD ACRS FA OVERNIGHT HAS VERY LITTLE MSTR TO WORK WITH.
GOING FCST OF A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT LOOKS OK...SO
NO CHANGE TO THAT PORTION OF FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 314 PM EST MON MAR 6 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NICE COUPLE OF DAYS ON TAP FOR THE CWA. WK SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MVG
OVER TOP OF RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREAT LKS REGION...WILL MV SE OVER
THE REGION LATER TNGT...LIFTING OUT OF FA BY TUES MORN. MDLS HINTING
AT LGT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SL
CHANCE OPS FOR S-/S-- FOR NORTHERN CWA. STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILDS EAST
OVER THE AREA TUES THRU WED...FOR A NICE BRIEF STRETCH OF WX BFR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES REGION FOR THURS. MDLS HAVE SFC SYSTEM
TRACKING NE THRU GREAT LKS REGION THURS MORN. THIS WILL BRING WARM
FRNT INTO CWA DURING THIS TIME. WITH BLW FREEZING AIR IN PLACE AS
FRNT APPROACHES...EXPECTING A WINTRY MIX(BUFKIT PROFILES HINT AT
S/FZRA) AT ONSET TIL WARM AIR CHANGES ALL PRECIP OVER TO RAIN...BY
MIDDAY. NE VT SHOULD SEE LAST CHANGEOVER. WARM AIR CONTINUES TO
SURGE INTO AFTNOON AS FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION BY NIGHTFALL.
DRIVING HAZARD ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE THURS MORN BFR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
AND MAY HAVE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN UPCOMING LOCAL HWO/SPS PRODUCTS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PTRN IS WRN TROF/ERN RIDGE AT START OF PERIOD AND RATHER
PRONOUNCED RDG AT THAT FOR E COAST. GFS/ECMWF APPEAR VRY SMLR AND
CLOSER TO ECMWF...THAT BEING SLOWER WITH SYSTEMS INVADING RDG.
HWVR...RDG AXIS WL ONLY DAMPEN A TAD TO ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO MV
THRU NRN PTNS OF RDG IN BROAD SW FLOW WITH MEAN ERN CONUS RDG
DOMINATING.

TIMING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC...BUT STL HOLDING ONTO THE LINE AND FCST
OF YDY WITH FIRST SYSTEM THU NGT/ERLY FRI TRACKING ACRS ERN GRT
LAKES DELIVERING ASSOC WRM FNT ACRS PTNS OF FA WITH MILD TMPS.
MEANWHILE...WITH THIS SFC WAVE PASSAGE A TRAILING WEAK CD FNT MVS
ACRS FA LATE FRI/FRI NGT LKLY STALLING ACRS SNE AS WE AWAIT A S/W
REFLECTION FM LARGE CUT-OFF LOW ACRS NRN ROCKIES TO MV INTO CANADA
WITH PSBL SVRL WEAK WAVES FM NRN AND SRN STREAMS TO TVL ALG LEFTOVR
BNDRY SUN NGT-MON.

DESPITE WEAK CD FNT SAT...DRIER AIR AND SS WL LKLY MEAN MILDER TMPS
ON SAT FOR MUCH OF FA BUT WHERE WRM SECTOR CONDS UNVEIL FRI AFTN CUD
BE QUITE MILD.

AVIATION...
SKC ACRS TAF SITES THRU 00Z THEN S/W DIVING SE IN CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
BRG ABT SCT-BKN035 WITH VRY ISOLD -SHSN IN NRN MTNS DRG OVRNGT THEN
SCT035 AFT 12Z TUE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$










FXUS61 KBTV 062014
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 PM EST MON MAR 6 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NICE COUPLE OF DAYS ON TAP FOR THE CWA. WK SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MVG
OVER TOP OF RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREAT LKS REGION...WILL MV SE OVER
THE REGION LATER TNGT...LIFTING OUT OF FA BY TUES MORN. MDLS HINTING
AT LGT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SL
CHANCE OPS FOR S-/S-- FOR NORTHERN CWA. STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILDS EAST
OVER THE AREA TUES THRU WED...FOR A NICE BRIEF STRETCH OF WX BFR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES REGION FOR THURS. MDLS HAVE SFC SYSTEM
TRACKING NE THRU GREAT LKS REGION THURS MORN. THIS WILL BRING WARM
FRNT INTO CWA DURING THIS TIME. WITH BLW FREEZING AIR IN PLACE AS
FRNT APPROACHES...EXPECTING A WINTRY MIX(BUFKIT PROFILES HINT AT
S/FZRA) AT ONSET TIL WARM AIR CHANGES ALL PRECIP OVER TO RAIN...BY
MIDDAY. NE VT SHOULD SEE LAST CHANGEOVER. WARM AIR CONTINUES TO
SURGE INTO AFTNOON AS FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION BY NIGHTFALL.
DRIVING HAZARD ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE THURS MORN BFR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
AND MAY HAVE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN UPCOMING LOCAL HWO/SPS PRODUCTS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PTRN IS WRN TROF/ERN RIDGE AT START OF PERIOD AND RATHER
PRONOUNCED RDG AT THAT FOR E COAST. GFS/ECMWF APPEAR VRY SMLR AND
CLOSER TO ECMWF...THAT BEING SLOWER WITH SYSTEMS INVADING RDG.
HWVR...RDG AXIS WL ONLY DAMPEN A TAD TO ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO MV
THRU NRN PTNS OF RDG IN BROAD SW FLOW WITH MEAN ERN CONUS RDG
DOMINATING.

TIMING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC...BUT STL HOLDING ONTO THE LINE AND FCST
OF YDY WITH FIRST SYSTEM THU NGT/ERLY FRI TRACKING ACRS ERN GRT
LAKES DELIVERING ASSOC WRM FNT ACRS PTNS OF FA WITH MILD TMPS.
MEANWHILE...WITH THIS SFC WAVE PASSAGE A TRAILING WEAK CD FNT MVS
ACRS FA LATE FRI/FRI NGT LKLY STALLING ACRS SNE AS WE AWAIT A S/W
REFLECTION FM LARGE CUT-OFF LOW ACRS NRN ROCKIES TO MV INTO CANADA
WITH PSBL SVRL WEAK WAVES FM NRN AND SRN STREAMS TO TVL ALG LEFTOVR
BNDRY SUN NGT-MON.

DESPITE WEAK CD FNT SAT...DRIER AIR AND SS WL LKLY MEAN MILDER TMPS
ON SAT FOR MUCH OF FA BUT WHERE WRM SECTOR CONDS UNVEIL FRI AFTN CUD
BE QUITE MILD.
&&

.AVIATION...
SKC ACRS TAF SITES THRU 00Z THEN S/W DIVING SE IN CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
BRG ABT SCT-BKN035 WITH VRY ISOLD -SHSN IN NRN MTNS DRG OVRNGT THEN
SCT035 AFT 12Z TUE.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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