In order to keep you informed...

THURSDAY'S SYSTEM FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC (skip down 
if you don't care):

Thursday system will be significantly further south that anticipated even 
just yesterday morning.  It will be a southern tier of NY, Catskill, and 
higher terrain of NW NJ snowfall with possibly some light snowfall reaching 
northward into the Berkshires and Worcester Hills.  Low pressure will track 
ESE across PA and then reform off the NJ coast but the incredibly strong 
block aloft will push this secondary storm straight off the coast, not 
allowing it to turn at all.

Snowfall looks exactly the same as it did a couple days ago, just a hundred 
miles south.  A band of 4-8" will be somewhere along the PA/NY border and 
just to the south of that in northern PA to northern NJ and possibly into 
the NYC metro area.  A 3-6" zone just north of that should include the 
Binghamton area and Catskills...with 1-3" up to the I-90 corridor in NY.  
My idea with the Catskills is that once the secondary low gets going off 
the NJ coast, Atlantic moisture will get pushed back on a developing 
southeasterly flow and could push totals higher into the 4-8" range 
especially in the SE facing slopes of the Catskills due to orographics 
(Slide Mountain usually comes out fairly high with these types of 
situations.)  Also, orographics should push the southeast facing slopes of 
the Berkshires into the 3-6" range...namely around the I-90 corridor 
through the Berks (Blanford).  

Overall, it will be the same light to moderate snowfall just significantly 
further south. 

SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE POTENTIAL FRIDAY EVENING-SATURDAY (Northern NY/VT):

That further south trend will not leave northern NY and VT high and 
dry...oh no.  The stronger than predicted block, colder than forecasted air 
the past couple days, and further south track of the low means we need to 
shift the entire northeast upper level evolution further south.  The upper 
level cut off low that was broken down by the models and forecasted to 
retrograde will not do that.  I'm kicking myself for falling for that as 
models do break blocks and patterns down much faster than what actually 
happens.  So Thursday's system gets absorbed by the massive cut off and 
vertically stacked low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes.  

As the energy gets picked up by the Maritime low it wraps around the low 
and the momentum of that pick up causes the whole system to back ever so 
slightly to the west...dropping energy southward into northern New 
England.  The NWS in Burlington has picked up a little bit on this but not 
to the extent I'm thinking.  They have likely snow on Friday afternoon with 
1-3" and in their AFD heavy snow showers are discussed for Friday afternoon.

This I agree with.  However, the veritcally stacked low rotating energy 
around it will keep upslope snowfall going from Friday afternoon through at 
least Saturday morning, and possibly longer.  The dynamics, moisture 
wrapping in from the Maritimes could spell a significant snowfall for the 
moutnains of the northern Adirondacks and central/northern Green Mountain 
spine.

Just peeked at the 12z NAM/NGM and the amount of energy that drops 
southward across the north country on Friday afternoon is ridiculous.  That 
would be one heck of a snow squall line followed by an intense 12hrs of 
upslope snowfall.  This trend will be watched as travel would be impacted 
come Friday evening with a widespread band of whiteout conditions and heavy 
snow.  

Tomorrow it will come into the range of BTV's workstation ETA which handles 
these situations very well.  Even on the larger grid of the NCEP NAM up to 
3/4" liquid is pumped out in the northern Greens and northern 
Adirondacks....which in itself is a strong signal of a heavy upslope 
snowfall.  I've been watching this stuff for 5 years now and when upslope 
factors produce heavy QPF on the higher grid model, it says something.

In a worst case senario, we get a heavy round of squalls on Friday evening 
with a quick 2-6" of snowfall in the mountains.  Best case senario is round 
of squalls followed by upslope and 12+ by noon on Saturday...with snow 
continuing.

-Scott

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