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SKIVT-L  April 2006, Week 1

SKIVT-L April 2006, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 2 Apr 2006 06:50:06 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (592 lines)

Expires:200604022115;;652925
FPUS51 KBTV 020748
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EST SUN APR 2 2006


VTZ006-016-017-022115-
LAMOILLE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL
347 AM EST SUN APR 2 2006

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS 45 TO 50. 
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 20 TO 25. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH... 
BECOMING LIGHT. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH 
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
30S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH EARLY... 
DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES 
NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE
OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN has been proposed for termination. NOAA's NWS will be accepting
comments on the proposed termination until January 31, 2006. Please learn
more about the termination and how to leave a comment [2]here
   
          
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 020826
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRIMARY WEATHER FOCUS OVER COURSE OF SHORT TERM PORTIONS OF FCST
WILL BE COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH TO EVOLVE ACROSS NERN CONUS DURING
EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WIDEPSREAD RAIN/SNOW AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS. LATEST SYNOPTIC/SFC MAP INDICATING SFC LOW AND ASSOC
COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT NEEDED PRECIP TO REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES
TO PUSH EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
THINNING MID LVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...LEAVING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS ENTIRE FA WITH
COOLER NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE SFC TO MID LVL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS REGION. RIDGE AXIS TO THEN CROSS AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HAVE OPTED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON MINS AS AMPLE
MID LVL RH/CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RETURN FLOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FROM CHVLY WESTWARD.

BY MONDAY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION EVOLVES ACROSS CENTRAL
STATES/GREAT LAKES AS MID LATITUDE AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS
BECOME PHASED AS THEY PUSH EAST AND SOUTH TOWARDS NERN CONUS.
INITIAL MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE BNDRY LYR QUITE DRY AND WILL OPT
FOR LESS ROBUST ETA/CANADIAN SOLN IN REGARDS TO PCPN
CHCS/AMNTS/TIMING DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS APPEARS TO DRIVE QPF
TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST INTO THIS DRY AIR...AND APPEARS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM GRID SCALE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AS OF LATE. THUS BEST
CHCS OF PCPN TO ARRIVE ACROSS NRN NY DURING AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
LOWER CHCS VERMONT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A -SHRA ANYWHERE BY LATE
IN THE DAY. OTHER CONCERN LATER MONDAY/EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL BE
POTENTIAL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WRN SLOPES OF GREEN MTNS
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING/GAP EFFECTS. SOME GUSTS CERTAINLY OVER 45 MPH
POSSIBLE...AND WILL MONITOR MORE CLOSELY AS EVENT APPROACHES.

AS DYNAMICS CONSOLIDATE ACROSS AREA MONDAY NT INTO TUESDAY
WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD EVOLVE. OCCLUDING GEORGIAN BAY SFC LOW TO
GIVE WAY TO DELMARVA CYCLOGENESIS MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH THEN PUSHES
ATOP REGION AND STALLS UNDER UPPER FEATURE. PROXIMITY OF COLD POOL
ALOFT AND EXCELLENT QG/JET FORCING SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER
DYNAMICS. LATEST PARTIAL THICKNESS PROFILES AND SOUNDING ANALYSIS
WOULD INDICATE MAINLY -SHRA ALL AREAS MONDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MIX
POSSIBLE DACKS LATE...PERHAPS HIGHEST ELEV NRN GREENS. AS UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL DEEPENS DURING TUESDAY P-TYPE SHOULD BECOME ELEVATION
DEPENDENT...WITH MAINLY LIQUID OR A MIX LOWER VALLEY LOCALES...AND A
MIX OR ALL FROZEN ABV SAY 1K FT IN NRN MTN LOCALES. SOME LIGHT
ACCUM CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THOUGH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS AND STRENGTH OF
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL COUNTERACT ACCUM RATES. ANY REMAINING MIXED
P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL
INCHES ACCUM CERTAINLY POSSIBLE W/BNDRY LYR COOLING AND LOSS OF
INSOLATION. HIGHEST THEAT WOULD BE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC FORCING...BUT EQUALLY DUE TO FACT THAT SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. RATHER ACTIVE
EARLY SPRING PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS PIPELINE OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS
CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS CONUS. VLLY SHRASN/SHSN AND
MTN SHSN TO CONTINUE WED/WED NT WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUM
POSSIBLE...THEN MAINLY PTLY CLOUDY AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL TO ABV
NORMAL READINGS BY THU AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AFFECTS AREA. BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO UPCOMING WEEKEND...AFOREMENTIONED ADDITIONAL
PACIFIC ENERGY TO AFFECT NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN AND COOLER
TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...
LLVL MOIST/CLDS FM DEPARTING SYSTEM WL CONT TO ABATE AS MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND TO OUR W CONTS TO MV INTO FA. AT 07Z...CLRG ALRDY AT
KMSS AND SHLD REACH KMPV BTWN 12-14Z. THEREAFTER...SKC FOR MUCH OF
THE REST OF FCST PERIOD WITH SOME CI ENTERING NY ROUTES AFT 00Z.
&&

.HYDRO...
NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. MODEST RESPONSES ON MAINLY NRN
WATERSHEDS WERE NOTED YESTERDAY INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...ESP
ACROSS THE MISSISSQUOI BASIN WHERE N TROY NEARED BANKFULL BRIEFLY.
ALL MINOR TRIBUTARIES NOW IN PROCESS OF RECEDING...AND ANY THREAT OF
MINOR LOWLAND FIELD FLOODING AS A RESULT OF YESTERDAYS RAINFALL AND
SNOWPACK RUNOFF HAS ENDED.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW









FXUS61 KBTV 020244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST SAT APR 1 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VLY AT THE
PRESENT TIME. MODERATELY STRONG NWLY GRADIENT FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL
CAA FOLLOWING FROPA WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT...GUSTS TO 30KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR AT KPLB AND ALSO AT THE COLCHESTER REEF.

REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE GREEN MTNS EWD...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT. UPSTREAM AIR MASS DRIES RATHER QUICKLY...PER IR IMAGERY
SHOWING BACK EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS NEARING FAR WRN CWA/ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY NY. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF GRADUAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEARING WILL BE SLOWEST ALONG WRN SLOPES
OF ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS AND ALSO ACROSS THE NE KINGDOM.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS OVERNIGHT BY A FEW
DEGREES...GIVEN 3-4F/HR FALLS NOTED IN SFC OBS BEHIND COLD FRONT.
WHILE RATE OF FALL WILL GRADUALLY LEVEL OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...FEEL
LOWS CLOSER TO FREEZING ARE LIKELY AT KBTV. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH NOTED IN A FEW SPOTS...MAINLY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS WILL
TRANSITION TO -SHSN AND HAVE WORDED IN THE GRIDS AND ZFP AS CHC OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ZONE FORECAST WILL BE SENT
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 230 PM EST SAT APR 1 2006/

SYNOPSIS...
BIG PICTURE CONTS TO SHOW PROGRESSIVE ULVL PATTERN ACRS CONUS WITH
VERY AMPLIFIED FLW TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FIRST POTENT
5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED TROF CONTS TO QUICKLY LIFT NE ACRS OUR FA
THIS AFTN AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR LINE OF -RW ACRS OUR CWA. VIS SAT
PIC SHOWS NICE CYCLONIC SPIN STRUCTURE TO CLOUDS NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORTS COMBINED WITH
STRONG JET STREAM ENERGY IS HELPING TO CURVE ANOTHER TROF ACRS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WL IMPACT FA LATE MONDAY INTO TUES.

CRNT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES INITIAL SFC COLD FRNT ACRS CPV ATTM WITH
SECONDARY FRNT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LKS. RAPID CLRING NOTED NORTH
OF THE WESTERN GREAT LKS ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING 1023MB HIGH PRES
AND DRY NW FLW. THIS AIRMASS WL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOW LINE OF -RW WITH FRNT NOW ACRS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AND ONLY SCT -RW OVER NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS
PRECIP WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST THIS AFTN WITH STP AMOUNTS A
0.25" OR LESS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PROGRESSIVE ULVL PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE NORTHERN CONUS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY FEW DAYS. LOCAL SHORT FCST
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ON
SUNDAY...BUT START HAVING DIFFERENCE ON TRACK/POSITION/STRENGTH OF
ULVL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUES.
FIRST...MODELS IN GOOD AGREE WITH POTENT 5H VORT LIFTING QUICKLY NE
THIS EVENING AND PLACING FA IN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BY
06Z TONIGHT. WEAK 1000-700MB WRAPAROUND MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLW WHICH IS DISPLAYED NICELY IN THE NAM 12 1000-850MB OMEGA
FIELDS MAY PROVIDE WESTERN SLOPES OF DACKS/GREENS WITH FEW EVENING
-RW. HOWEVER...BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF
1000-700MB MOISTURE QUICKLY DISSIPATING BY 06Z TONIGHT...THEREFORE
EXPECT CLRING SKIES. HOWEVER...BL WL BE MIXED AND PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL CREATE NW FLW 5 TO 15
MPH OVERNIGHT. WL STICK CLOSE TO MACHINE VALUES. SUNDAY...SFC HIGH
PRES PROVIDES FA WITH SUNNY SKIES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C SUPPORT
HIGHS M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY VSF ON NW
DOWNSLOPING FLW. SUNDAY NITE...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH WL PROVIDE FA WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WL
SETUP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WL CUT NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES IN COLDER LOCATIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST SYSTEM WL IMPACT FA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH INITIAL SHOT OF WAA LIFT/MOISTURE SPREADING FROM SW
TO NE ACRS OUR FA LATE MONDAY. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS SHIFTS THINKING
AND MENTION CHC POPS MONDAY FROM CPV EASTWARD AND KEEP LIKELY POPS
ACRS NNY/SLV. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLW AND LLVL JET OF 30KNTS WL ADVECT
PLENTY OF WARM AIR TO KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR MONDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE DACKS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0
AND -2C COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW BY MONDAY NITE. MODELS HAVE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKING NORTH OF FA...BUT HAVE
DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF SECONDARY COASTAL LOW ON TUES.
GFS KEEPS PRIMARY LOW MVING EAST INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY WITH
LIMITED COASTAL DEVELOPMENT...MEANWHILE NAM SHOWS COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT ACRS SNE ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG S/W ENERGY
ROUNDING 5H TROF BASE. THIS WL HAVE IMPACTS ON THERMAL PROFILES ACRS
FA AND PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ZN.
THICKNESS PROGS AND 85H/925MB TEMPS AND POSITION AND TRACK OF
MID/UPPER LVL SYSTEM CONTS TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACRS THE DACKS/GREENS TUES INTO WEDS. IN
ADDITION...DGEX/ECMWF SUPPORT A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
PASSING SOUTH OF FA ACRS SNE WITH PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE/LIFT IMPACTING OUR CWA. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS TUE NITE
INTO WEDS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR THE MTNS ON WEDS. ALSO...NW
FLW AND CAA DROP PROGGED 85H TEMPS TO -10C BY 12Z WEDS...SUPPORTING
BLW NORMAL HIGHS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LOW HAVING PASSED TO
THE EAST. REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE/TERRAIN ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW...TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY DRIER AIR AND RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COOL TEMPS BUT MOSTLY SUNNY.

PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FRIDAY
WITH CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT...THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

AVIATION
AT 18Z...1ST COLD FRONT LYING ALONG THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH LINE
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. VSBYS AT KBTV FELL TO IFR FOR ABOUT
AN HOUR IN RAIN...AND FCST THE SAME EARLY IN PERIOD AT KMPV. VSBYS
INCREASING TO WEST OF BAND OF RAIN TO VFR...BUT CIGS REMAIN MVFR AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS THROUGH 06-12Z. AS UPPER LOW TRACKS
EAST...DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SPREAD INTO REGION FROM NW TO
SE DURING 06-12Z TIME FRAME...AND WILL BE VFR CLR AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO NW BY
06Z SUN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS








FXUS61 KBTV 011927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EST SAT APR 1 2006

FCST PROBLEM IS LEFTOVER PRECIP THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLRING
AND TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
BIG PICTURE CONTS TO SHOW PROGRESSIVE ULVL PATTERN ACRS CONUS WITH
VERY AMPLIFIED FLW TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FIRST POTENT
5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED TROF CONTS TO QUICKLY LIFT NE ACRS OUR FA
THIS AFTN AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR LINE OF -RW ACRS OUR CWA. VIS SAT
PIC SHOWS NICE CYCLONIC SPIN STRUCTURE TO CLOUDS NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORTS COMBINED WITH
STRONG JET STREAM ENERGY IS HELPING TO CURVE ANOTHER TROF ACRS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WL IMPACT FA LATE MONDAY INTO TUES.

CRNT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES INITIAL SFC COLD FRNT ACRS CPV ATTM WITH
SECONDARY FRNT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LKS. RAPID CLRING NOTED NORTH
OF THE WESTERN GREAT LKS ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING 1023MB HIGH PRES
AND DRY NW FLW. THIS AIRMASS WL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOW LINE OF -RW WITH FRNT NOW ACRS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AND ONLY SCT -RW OVER NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS
PRECIP WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST THIS AFTN WITH STP AMOUNTS A
0.25" OR LESS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PROGRESSIVE ULVL PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE NORTHERN CONUS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY FEW DAYS. LOCAL SHORT FCST
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ON
SUNDAY...BUT START HAVING DIFFERENCE ON TRACK/POSITION/STRENGTH OF
ULVL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUES.
FIRST...MODELS IN GOOD AGREE WITH POTENT 5H VORT LIFTING QUICKLY NE
THIS EVENING AND PLACING FA IN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BY
06Z TONIGHT. WEAK 1000-700MB WRAPAROUND MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLW WHICH IS DISPLAYED NICELY IN THE NAM 12 1000-850MB OMEGA
FIELDS MAY PROVIDE WESTERN SLOPES OF DACKS/GREENS WITH FEW EVENING
-RW. HOWEVER...BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF
1000-700MB MOISTURE QUICKLY DISSIPATING BY 06Z TONIGHT...THEREFORE
EXPECT CLRING SKIES. HOWEVER...BL WL BE MIXED AND PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL CREATE NW FLW 5 TO 15
MPH OVERNIGHT. WL STICK CLOSE TO MACHINE VALUES. SUNDAY...SFC HIGH
PRES PROVIDES FA WITH SUNNY SKIES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C SUPPORT
HIGHS M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY VSF ON NW
DOWNSLOPING FLW. SUNDAY NITE...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH WL PROVIDE FA WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WL
SETUP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WL CUT NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES IN COLDER LOCATIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST SYSTEM WL IMPACT FA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH INITIAL SHOT OF WAA LIFT/MOISTURE SPREADING FROM SW
TO NE ACRS OUR FA LATE MONDAY. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS SHIFTS THINKING
AND MENTION CHC POPS MONDAY FROM CPV EASTWARD AND KEEP LIKELY POPS
ACRS NNY/SLV. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLW AND LLVL JET OF 30KNTS WL ADVECT
PLENTY OF WARM AIR TO KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR MONDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE DACKS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0
AND -2C COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW BY MONDAY NITE. MODELS HAVE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKING NORTH OF FA...BUT HAVE
DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF SECONDARY COASTAL LOW ON TUES.
GFS KEEPS PRIMARY LOW MVING EAST INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY WITH
LIMITED COASTAL DEVELOPMENT...MEANWHILE NAM SHOWS COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT ACRS SNE ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG S/W ENERGY
ROUNDING 5H TROF BASE. THIS WL HAVE IMPACTS ON THERMAL PROFILES ACRS
FA AND PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ZN.
THICKNESS PROGS AND 85H/925MB TEMPS AND POSITION AND TRACK OF
MID/UPPER LVL SYSTEM CONTS TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACRS THE DACKS/GREENS TUES INTO WEDS. IN
ADDITION...DGEX/ECMWF SUPPORT A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
PASSING SOUTH OF FA ACRS SNE WITH PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE/LIFT IMPACTING OUR CWA. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS TUE NITE
INTO WEDS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR THE MTNS ON WEDS. ALSO...NW
FLW AND CAA DROP PROGGED 85H TEMPS TO -10C BY 12Z WEDS...SUPPORTING
BLW NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LOW HAVING PASSED TO
THE EAST. REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE/TERRAIN ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW...TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY DRIER AIR AND RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COOL TEMPS BUT MOSTLY SUNNY.

PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FRIDAY
WITH CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT...THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION
AT 18Z...1ST COLD FRONT LYING ALONG THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH LINE
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. VSBYS AT KBTV FELL TO IFR FOR ABOUT
AN HOUR IN RAIN...AND FCST THE SAME EARLY IN PERIOD AT KMPV. VSBYS
INCREASING TO WEST OF BAND OF RAIN TO VFR...BUT CIGS REMAIN MVFR AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS THROUGH 06-12Z. AS UPPER LOW TRACKS
EAST...DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SPREAD INTO REGION FROM NW TO
SE DURING 06-12Z TIME FRAME...AND WILL BE VFR CLR AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO NW BY
06Z SUN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON









FXUS61 KBTV 011555
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1055 AM EST SAT APR 1 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES
BASED ON CRNT POSITION OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPS BEHIND SFC FRNT. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED WEAK LINE SEGMENTS MOVING ACRS THE CPV ATTM. PLB REPORTED
WIND GUST TO 33KNTS ASSOCIATED WITH LINE AT 1517Z.
OTHERWISE...LINE CONTS TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE 35F LAKE WATER
AND LIMITED SFC BASED INSTABILITY. WL UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDER ACRS WESTERN FA AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO M50S.
ALSO...WL TIME FROPA AND ASSOCIATED -RW/THUNDER FOR SOUTHERN VT.
STILL THINKING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
BASED ON SOME CLRING AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S. THIS WL
CREATE SFC BASED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WITH LIS AROUND -1.
ALSO...LAP HRLY SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX FROM
800MB AND LLVL JET OF 40 KNTS...WHICH IS ALSO SEEN ON THE CXX VAD.
THREAT FOR SVR WL BE VERY LIMITED BASED ON STABILITY AND SFC DWPTS
ONLY IN THE U40S/L50S. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WL UPDATE TO
FRESHEN WORDING BASED ON CRNT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 308 AM EST SAT APR 1 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WIDELY VARYING TEMPERATURE
REGIME...AND DEGREE/STRENGTH OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
LATEST SYNOPTIC MAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH WV/IR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL
RADAR INDICATING POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES STATES THIS MORNING.
DECAYING PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OCCLUDING SFC LOW NEAR
GEORGIAN BAY EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FCST AREA IN A N/S
ORIENTATION ACROSS WRN VT AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE RUNNING OUT OF
SUPPORT...AND INTO VERY DRY AIRMASS EAST OF GREEN MTNS...THUS EXPECT
ANY ASSOC -SHRA ACTIVITY TO REMAIN LIGHT AT BEST THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...MORE ENHANCED PCPN TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC STRONG SFC FRONT PUSH RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS AREA. EXCELLENT UPPER DIFFLUENCE/QG FORCING ASSOC W/THESE
FEATURES. PROGGED SFC TD VALUES INTO THE LOWER 50S AND AT LEAST SOME
MINIMAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
ALONG A NARROW PREFRONTAL AXIS FROM MAINLY DACKS EASTWARD FROM LATE
MORNING ON. DESPITE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES...LI VALUES
NEAR ZERO AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF WIND FIELD WOULD SUGGEST AT
POTENTIAL OF A LINE OR SEGMENTED LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHRAS AND SCT
TSRAS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
NONETHELESS...EXPECT ANY DAMAGING GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
OTHER PROBLEMATIC ISSUE TODAY IS TEMPERATURE REGIME. VALUES THIS
MORNING ALL OVER THE PLACE...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN FAVORED
WRN VT VLLYS...TO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VT. WITH SUCH A
WIDE RANGE OF VALUES...AND STRONG FRONT CROSSING AREA TODAY...ACTUAL
MAX READINGS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION QUITE TOUGH. WILL OPT WITH MAX
READINGS IN THE MORNING ACROSS NRN NY...AROUND MIDDAY WRN/CENTRAL
VT...AND MID AFTERNOON ERN VT...WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 60 TO
65 RANGE VT...AND 55 TO 60 NRN NY DUE TO EARLIER PASSAGE OF FRONT.
BEHIND SFC FRONT...TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE M-U 40S NRN NY LATER
TODAY...AND INTO THE 50S VT.

BY THIS EVENING PRIMARY SFC FRONT TO PUSH OFFSHORE WELL EAST OF FA.
TRAILING SECONDAY SFC BNDRY ASSOC W/PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY NRN AREAS THIS EVENING ALONG WITH SCT
LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH NW FLOW SLOWLY WANING. BROAD
MERIDIONAL SFC/UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS AREA
DURING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES EXPECTED AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH READINGS STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY APRIL.

NEXT CHC OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO AFFECT AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE VERY SIMILAR IN
ORIENTATION/APPEARANCE TO TODAYS SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL
STATES AND PUSHES QUICKLY NE INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ASSOC W/THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...AND WILL MAINTAIN PRIOR
FCSTRS IDEA OF CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BNDRY LYR TEMPS APPEAR MILD ENOUGH INITIALLY TO
PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF FROZEN PCPN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME W/PERIODIC EPISODES OF PCPN.
COOLER W/LINGERING -SHRAS/-SHSN TO AFFECT AREA TUE/WED...THEN DRY
AND SEASONABLY MILD THU/THU NT BEFORE ADDITIONAL ENERGY OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN AFFECTS REGION BY LATE WEEK TIME FRAME.

AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF SHRA...SCT/LGT WITH PRE-FNTL TROF MVG ACRS VT FA THRU
12-14Z. SOME LLVL MOIST...LGT GRADIENT AND DRIER AIR BTWN TROF AND
SFC CD FNT ACCNTG FOR SOME LCLLY DENSE FOG AT KSLK AND LKLY TO CONT
TIL NXT ROUND OF PCPN. CD FNTL SHRA ENTERS WRN FA ARD 12Z...REACHING
CHMPL VLY 15-16Z AND CT RVR VLY BY 18Z AND LASTING 2-3 HRS. MVFR
CONDS DVLPG WITH PCPN AND CAA ACCOMPANYING WITH ANTHR BRF-SCT ROUND
OF SHRA WITH MID-LVL S/W IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ERLY AFTN IN NY AND
MID-LATE AFTN IN VT. GRDL DRIER AIR AND CLRG MVG INTO NY FA TOWARD
END OF FCST PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TABER








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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April 2007, Week 3
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March 2007, Week 2
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January 2007, Week 3
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
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July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
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May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
March 2006, Week 5
March 2006, Week 4
March 2006, Week 3
March 2006, Week 2
March 2006, Week 1
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February 2006, Week 3
February 2006, Week 2
February 2006, Week 1
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January 2006, Week 4
January 2006, Week 3
January 2006, Week 2
January 2006, Week 1
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December 2005, Week 3
December 2005, Week 2
December 2005, Week 1
November 2005, Week 5
November 2005, Week 4
November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
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September 2005, Week 1
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