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SKIVT-L  April 2006, Week 1

SKIVT-L April 2006, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 3 Apr 2006 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (523 lines)

Expires:200604032215;;680134
FPUS51 KBTV 030807
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006


VTZ006-016-017-032215-
LAMOILLE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL
406 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BECOMING WINDY WITH HIGHS 50 TO 55. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...
INCREASING TO SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN. WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO 10 TO 
20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUESDAY...RAIN IN THE MORNING...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW 
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES 
POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 30S. 
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE 
AFTERNOON. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 
MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...SNOW. POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES. HIGHS 30 TO 
35. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF 
SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY IN THE 
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN 
THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN has been proposed for termination. NOAA's NWS will be accepting
comments on the proposed termination until January 31, 2006. Please learn
more about the termination and how to leave a comment [2]here
   
          
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 030910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
510 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX WX PATTERN CONTINUES EVOLVE ACROSS CENTRAL STATES...AND
INCLEMENT WINTERTIME CONDS NOW APPEAR MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
COUNTRY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST SYNOPTIC MAP/SFC CONDS
INDICATING FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURE REGIME GENERALLY IN THE 20S
ACROSS FA THIS MORNING WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS EXITING EAST INTO ERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND AMPLE HIGH CLOUDINESS PUSHING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS CLOUDINESS ASSOC WITH EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
STATES WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD SVR WX YESTERDAY
EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL ENERGY CONTINUES TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY REGION...AND IS ASSOC WITH POOL OF
VERY COLD AIR (-33C @ 500 HPA/-15C @ 850 HPA). ALL OPERATIONAL SOLNS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN AGREEMENT OVER PAST FEW DAYS OF PHASING THESE
TWO ENERGY CENTERS INTO A MUCH LARGER UPPER VORTEX ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME...AND THIS STILL APPEARS ON
TRACK THIS MORNING. AS UPPER FEATURES CONSOLIDATE LATER
TODAY...INITIAL BROAD SCALE ASCENT/WAA TO OVERSPREAD AREA FROM THE
SW...WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN PRIOR FCST
IDEA OF HIGHER POPS WEST ACROSS NRN NY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER
FORCING...AND KEEP CHC POPS TODAY VT DUE MAINLY TO VERY DRY INITIAL
BNDRY LYR CONDS. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE EVOLVING SE SFC
GRADIENT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES OF NRN GREEN MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH CERTAINLY POSSBL...ESP CONSIDERING WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LL LAPSE RATES. WILL HOIST WIND
ADV ACROSS THESE LOCALES ACCORDINGLY.

BY TONIGHT AFOREMENTIONED FORCING PUSHES INTO REGION FROM THE WEST
W/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED. AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE
OF EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH...SFC CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ACROSS DELMARVA
REGION...WITH SFC LOW PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO REGION. PWATS
NEAR AN INCH...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY TREMENDOUS QG/FGEN FIELDS ALL
POINT TO CATEGORICAL POPS AREA WIDE. SOME HYDRO CONCERNS ALONG ERN
SLOPES OF SRN GREENS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AS ABOVE FORCING
COMBINED WITH STRONG SE MID LVL JET IN EXCESS OF 50KT AIDS ENHANCES
OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS OF QPF. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDS AND DURATION OF
RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE LIMITING FACTOR ON FLOODING HOWEVER (SEE HYDRO
BELOW).

PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THEN OCCURS BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
COLD POOL ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW SETTLES ATOP REGION. CONTINUED
FORCING FROM UPPER FEATURE AND OCCLUDED/NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
FEATURE JUST EAST OF FA SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW ACROSS MANY LOCALES...ESP HIER ELEV. DACKS/NRN NY TO EXPERIENCE
CHANGEOVER FIRST...THEN GREENS LATER IN THE DAY. SOME MIX ALSO
POSSIBLE VALLEYS...BUT ACCUM TO REMAIN LIGHTER HERE. SNOW THEN
CONTINUES ALL AREAS TUE NT/WED WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUM POSSIBLE...ESP
MTN LOCALES(WRN SLOPES) AS REGIME SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO AN
OROGRAPHIC STORM. WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACCORDINGLY FOR
FAVORED LOCALES. BY WED NT PCPN BEGINS TO WANE AS UPPER FEATURES
TRUDGE SLOWLY EAST AND FORCING/MOISTURE DIMINISHES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TO AFFECT REGION BY LATER FRIDAY AND ESP SAT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (POSSIBLY MIX OR SNOW HIER ELEV NORTH) BEFORE
ENDING AS -SHRA OR -SHSN SAT NIGHT. AFTERWARDS...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO REGION WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS UNDER
AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...
INCRSG AND GRDL LWRG CLDS THRU 00Z. IN NRN NY...INITIAL
VORT MAX AND H8 WAA MAY BRG ABT 1-2HR WINDOW OF -SHRA ARD 18Z.
OTHERWISE...WITH DRY AIR IN LLVLS AND SSE CAUSING DOWNSLOPING AND
ADDTNL DRYING...IT WL TAKE AWHILE FOR PCPN TO MOISTEN ATMOS AND
REACH SFC. STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES IN KMSS/KSLK VCNTY BTWN 00-03Z
AND KBTV-KMPV 03-05Z. THEREAFTER...STEADY -RA WL BRG MVFR CONDS TO
FA WITH CIGS OVC020.

SSE WNDS INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND WL HV OPPORTUNITY TO
MIX PRIOR TO PCPN...ESP WRN SLOPES OF GRN MTNS AND NW SLOPES OF
ADRNDKS WITH 18-25KTS G40KTS PSBL. AFT STEADY PCPN ARRIVAL...ATMOS
SHLD STABLIZE FOR LGTR WNDS/GUSTINESS BUT STL BLOWING AOA 3K.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE CURRENT RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BURLINGTON HSA REMAIN AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...COPIOUS
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS IS DUE TO STRONG AND MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC PUSHING INTO THE AREA. WHILE QPF
VARIES AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS...A GENERAL 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL
IS QUITE POSSIBLE ALONG FAVORED ERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD. WHILE RAINFALL OF THIS
MAGNITUDE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS
...SIGNIFICANT IN BANK RISES OF RIVERS AND SMALLER CREEKS AND
TRIBUTARIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD INCLUDE BASINS SUCH AS THE WILLIAMS
...OTTAUQUECHEE...WHITE...AND AYERS BROOK. THUS CONDITIONS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
TECHNICAL CLIMATE SOFTWARE DIFFICULTIES EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT.
PLEASE DISREGARD ANY RECORD MAX TEMP REPORT(S) AT BTV FOR 4/2/06.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FOR VTZ006-016>019 FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>019 FROM 4
     PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NYZ029>031-034 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8
     AM THURSDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...JMG
CLIMATE...SLW/JMG









FXUS61 KBTV 030046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
846 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
TRANQUIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WRN QUEBEC SWD INTO THE MOHAWK VLY
OF NEW YORK BUILDS EWD THROUGH VT AT 03/06Z. IR SATELLITE AND
VISUAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EWD ADVANCE OF SCATTERED CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA AT THE MOMENT...ALTHOUGH SOME SUBLIMATION IS
OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF NARROW LEADING BAND CROSSING INTO VT AT
0030Z. OVERALL...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND WILL UPDATE ONLY
TO REFLECT CIRRUS CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A MITIGATING INFLUENCE ON RADIATIONAL
COOLING...VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S AT 03/00Z/ AND NEARLY CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 20S ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND AS LOW AS THE MID TEENS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 245 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006/

SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS ACRS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR LOOP. FIRST...MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WL SHIFT TO EAST
COAST BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...POTENT S/W ENERGY COMBINED WITH
SUB-TROPICAL JET/MOISTURE IS ENHANCING TS ACTIVITY ACRS THE MS
VALLEY TODAY...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS DROPPING SOUTH AROUND
POLAR VORTEX OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THE EVOLUTION AND PHASING OF THESE
COMPLEX SYSTEMS WL MAKE FOR A VERY DIFFICULT AND CHALLENGING FCST
FOR OUR FA ON TUES INTO WEDS. MODELS CONT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
COASTAL SYSTEM ON TUES WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN TUES NITE INTO WEDS. MORE
ON UPCOMING EVENT IN SHORT TERM PORTION OF FCST.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS CWA TODAY PER LATEST SFC OBS AND
VIS SAT PICS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRES AXIS ACRS LAKE ONTARIO
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ATTM WITH NW FLW OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND SFC DWPTS
IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND SFC
DWPTS IN THE TEENS AND L20S WL MENTION TEMPS MID TEENS DACK/NE
KINGDOM TO M20S CPV. MAY UNDERCUT MACHINE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS (VSF/SLK). MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF FA AS MS VALLEY TROF/ENERGY
APPROACHES FA. FIRST...RIBBON OF 1000-500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED 5H
VORT AND LLVL WAA WL APPROACH WESTERN FA BY 18Z AND CROSS INTO VT BY
00Z TUES...BUT VERY DRY LLVLS AND SFC RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES CPV/VT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PVA...GOOD
85-7H FGEN FORCING...AND BETTER OVERALL 850-700MB OMEGA/MOISTURE
PROFILES MONDAY NITE...THEREFORE WL INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACRS CWA TO CAT. THERMAL PROFILE SUGGEST ALL RAIN...EXCEPT
HIGHEST PEAKS MAYBE ENOUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM DRY LLVLS/85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C TO HAVE FEW WET SNOW FLAKES. TEMPS WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS
AND WINDS WL STAY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F.

TUESDAY-WEDS...MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION...STRENGTH...AND MOVEMENT OF COMPLEX WX SYSTEM FOR TUES
INTO WEDS. A PROLONGED HEAVY PRECIP EVENT IS VERY LIKELY WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW BCMG MORE AND MORE LIKELY EACH MODEL RUN FOR THE
ELEVATIONS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING PRIMARY LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH ULVL SYSTEM NORTH AND WEST OF FA ON MONDAY NITE INTO
TUES...PLACING OUR FA IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...STRONG 5H VORT AND
FAVORABLE DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE WL HELP TO ENHANCE EAST COAST
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN NJ BY 12Z TUES. SFC LOW WL TRACK NE ALONG
LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT AND BE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z
WEDS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINS ON TRACK/STRENGTH OF 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS
AND HOW QUICKLY THEY BCMG NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF. INITIAL
THERMAL PROFILES...SOUNDINGS...AND THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SE FLW...BUT AS 85H BCMS CLOSED OFF AND
STRONG LLVL CAA DEVELOPS...ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY BCMGS COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW BY 00Z WEDS. GFS IS ABOUT 6HRS QUICKER WITH CHANGING
RAIN TO SNOW ACRS OUR FA ON TUES AND WOULD SUGGEST ALL SNOW BY 18Z
TUES FOR ENTIRE CWA. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG APRIL SUN AND BL TEMPS
NEAR 3C WL KEEP MOSTLY RAIN IN VALLEYS AND MENTION JUST HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW FOR NORTHERN VT/DACKS ON TUES. STRONG NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL CONT TO ADVECT PLENTY OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR FA TUE NITE INTO WEDS. MODELS VERY
SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT OF VERY STRONG 85-7H FGEN BAND ACRS OUR
FA...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND
SEVERAL EMBEDDED JET COUPLETS AND 5H VORTS. THERMAL PROFILES AND
CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...ALONG WITH BL TEMPS BCMG COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW EVEN IN THE VALLEYS BY 06Z WEDS. GIVEN...EXPECTED
FORCING TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT...FEEL ACCUMULATING SNOW WL BE
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ON TUES NITE INTO WEDS. IN
ADDITION...WITH 1000-850MB FLW BTWN 280-300 DEGREES AND
>30KNTS...ALONG WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE...AND 7H WAA DEVELOPING
FROM ATLANTIC MOISTURE/AIRMASS GETTING WRAPPED BACK INTO OUR FA WL
LEAD TO A PROLONGED UPSLOPE EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LIKELY. NAM 12 SHOWS CLASSIC BACKSIDE DEFORMATION
ZN/CPV CONVERGENCE SETTING UP FOR WEDS WITH UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUING
IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...FEEL BL TEMPS WL WARM ENOUGH DUE TO STRONG
APRIL SUN TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACRS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ON
WEDS. WL ISSUE SPS WITH THIS PACKAGE AND HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL...FEEL WESTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS MTNS FROM A JAY
PEAK TO STOWE LINE COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW BY WEDS NITE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWING AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AFFECTS
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL. HAD TO INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR TERRAIN
INDUCED LINGERING PRECIP ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TERRAIN ENHANCED PRECIP A BIT LONGER.

BRIEF RIDGING LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY WITH A SHOT OF DRY
AIR...THEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND POSES SOME FORECAST PROBLEMS.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DGEX/ECMWF/GFS IN HOW A CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST LOW AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVELING THROUGH CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ECMWF
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS GFS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z
FRI. THE GFS STILL HAS A SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST FRIDAY AND BRINGS
IT THROUGH ON SAT...AND THE DGEX IS FASTER STILL.

FOR THE MOST PART LOADED THE HPC GRIDS...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
FRIDAY TO GO WITH THE LIKELY POPS SO BROUGHT THEM BACK TO CHANCE.

AVIATION...
AXIS OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT WEST TO EAST OVER AREA
TONIGHT...WITH NORTH WINDS EASING AND BECOMING CALM/VRB OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH 12-18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VFR CLR THROUGH FIRST 18 HOURS OF TAF
PERIOD...THEN VFR CIGS MOVING IN WEST TO EAST 15-18Z WITH
APPROACHING LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS








FXUS61 KBTV 021846
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS WITH POTENTIAL
HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS ACRS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR LOOP. FIRST...MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WL SHIFT TO EAST
COAST BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...POTENT S/W ENERGY COMBINED WITH
SUB-TROPICAL JET/MOISTURE IS ENHANCING TS ACTIVITY ACRS THE MS
VALLEY TODAY...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS DROPPING SOUTH AROUND
POLAR VORTEX OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THE EVOLUTION AND PHASING OF THESE
COMPLEX SYSTEMS WL MAKE FOR A VERY DIFFICULT AND CHALLENGING FCST
FOR OUR FA ON TUES INTO WEDS. MODELS CONT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
COASTAL SYSTEM ON TUES WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN TUES NITE INTO WEDS. MORE
ON UPCOMING EVENT IN SHORT TERM PORTION OF FCST.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS CWA TODAY PER LATEST SFC OBS AND
VIS SAT PICS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRES AXIS ACRS LAKE ONTARIO
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ATTM WITH NW FLW OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND SFC DWPTS
IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND SFC
DWPTS IN THE TEENS AND L20S WL MENTION TEMPS MID TEENS DACK/NE
KINGDOM TO M20S CPV. MAY UNDERCUT MACHINE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS (VSF/SLK). MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF FA AS MS VALLEY TROF/ENERGY
APPROACHES FA. FIRST...RIBBON OF 1000-500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED 5H
VORT AND LLVL WAA WL APPROACH WESTERN FA BY 18Z AND CROSS INTO VT BY
00Z TUES...BUT VERY DRY LLVLS AND SFC RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES CPV/VT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PVA...GOOD
85-7H FGEN FORCING...AND BETTER OVERALL 850-700MB OMEGA/MOISTURE
PROFILES MONDAY NITE...THEREFORE WL INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACRS CWA TO CAT. THERMAL PROFILE SUGGEST ALL RAIN...EXCEPT
HIGHEST PEAKS MAYBE ENOUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM DRY LLVLS/85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C TO HAVE FEW WET SNOW FLAKES. TEMPS WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS
AND WINDS WL STAY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F.

TUESDAY-WEDS...MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION...STRENGTH...AND MOVEMENT OF COMPLEX WX SYSTEM FOR TUES
INTO WEDS. A PROLONGED HEAVY PRECIP EVENT IS VERY LIKELY WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW BCMG MORE AND MORE LIKELY EACH MODEL RUN FOR THE
ELEVATIONS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING PRIMARY LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH ULVL SYSTEM NORTH AND WEST OF FA ON MONDAY NITE INTO
TUES...PLACING OUR FA IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...STRONG 5H VORT AND
FAVORABLE DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE WL HELP TO ENHANCE EAST COAST
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN NJ BY 12Z TUES. SFC LOW WL TRACK NE ALONG
LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT AND BE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z
WEDS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINS ON TRACK/STRENGTH OF 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS
AND HOW QUICKLY THEY BCMG NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF. INITIAL
THERMAL PROFILES...SOUNDINGS...AND THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SE FLW...BUT AS 85H BCMS CLOSED OFF AND
STRONG LLVL CAA DEVELOPS...ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY BCMGS COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW BY 00Z WEDS. GFS IS ABOUT 6HRS QUICKER WITH CHANGING
RAIN TO SNOW ACRS OUR FA ON TUES AND WOULD SUGGEST ALL SNOW BY 18Z
TUES FOR ENTIRE CWA. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG APRIL SUN AND BL TEMPS
NEAR 3C WL KEEP MOSTLY RAIN IN VALLEYS AND MENTION JUST HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW FOR NORTHERN VT/DACKS ON TUES. STRONG NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL CONT TO ADVECT PLENTY OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR FA TUE NITE INTO WEDS. MODELS VERY
SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT OF VERY STRONG 85-7H FGEN BAND ACRS OUR
FA...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND
SEVERAL EMBEDDED JET COUPLETS AND 5H VORTS. THERMAL PROFILES AND
CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...ALONG WITH BL TEMPS BCMG COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW EVEN IN THE VALLEYS BY 06Z WEDS. GIVEN...EXPECTED
FORCING TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT...FEEL ACCUMULATING SNOW WL BE
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ON TUES NITE INTO WEDS. IN
ADDITION...WITH 1000-850MB FLW BTWN 280-300 DEGREES AND
>30KNTS...ALONG WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE...AND 7H WAA DEVELOPING
FROM ATLANTIC MOISTURE/AIRMASS GETTING WRAPPED BACK INTO OUR FA WL
LEAD TO A PROLONGED UPSLOPE EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LIKELY. NAM 12 SHOWS CLASSIC BACKSIDE DEFORMATION
ZN/CPV CONVERGENCE SETTING UP FOR WEDS WITH UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUING
IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...FEEL BL TEMPS WL WARM ENOUGH DUE TO STRONG
APRIL SUN TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACRS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ON
WEDS. WL ISSUE SPS WITH THIS PACKAGE AND HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL...FEEL WESTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS MTNS FROM A JAY
PEAK TO STOWE LINE COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW BY WEDS NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWING AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AFFECTS
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL. HAD TO INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR TERRAIN
INDUCED LINGERING PRECIP ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TERRAIN ENHANCED PRECIP A BIT LONGER.

BRIEF RIDGING LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY WITH A SHOT OF DRY
AIR...THEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND POSES SOME FORECAST PROBLEMS.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DGEX/ECMWF/GFS IN HOW A CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST LOW AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVELING THROUGH CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ECMWF
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS GFS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z
FRI. THE GFS STILL HAS A SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST FRIDAY AND BRINGS
IT THROUGH ON SAT...AND THE DGEX IS FASTER STILL.

FOR THE MOST PART LOADED THE HPC GRIDS...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
FRIDAY TO GO WITH THE LIKELY POPS SO BROUGHT THEM BACK TO CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AXIS OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT WEST TO EAST OVER AREA
TONIGHT...WITH NORTH WINDS EASING AND BECOMING CALM/VRB OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH 12-18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VFR CLR THROUGH FIRST 18 HOURS OF TAF
PERIOD...THEN VFR CIGS MOVING IN WEST TO EAST 15-18Z WITH
APPROACHING LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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