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SKIVT-L  April 2006, Week 1

SKIVT-L April 2006, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 4 Apr 2006 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (524 lines)

Expires:200604042115;;704112
FPUS51 KBTV 040735
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2006


VTZ003-006-008-016-017-042115-
ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL
335 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...RAIN OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW EARLY...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW 
BY LATE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES BY EVENING. 
MORNING HIGHS 35 TO 40...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 
20S BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING 
NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SNOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER
20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN OCCASIONAL RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 6 TO 12 
INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 
MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY 
OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE
OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLEARING. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN has been proposed for termination. NOAA's NWS will be accepting
comments on the proposed termination until January 31, 2006. Please learn
more about the termination and how to leave a comment [2]here
   
          
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 040733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX WX SCENARIO IN PROCESS OF UNFOLDING ACROSS FA THIS MORNING
WITH ALL DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED. LATEST SYNOPTIC/SFC MAP
INDICATING SFC CYCLOGENESIS WELL UNDERWAY WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW IMMED OFFSHORE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND 3HR PRESS FALLS NEAR 6MB
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. OLD OCCLUDING PARENT SFC LOW
OFF TO THE NW NEAR CWMW WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FA TO
NEW LOW. ALSO VERY APPARENT PER WV IMAGERY IS TIGHTLY WOUND POLAR
VORTEX IN UPPER LVLS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NRN LAKES. THIS
FEATURE TO ACT TO DEEPEN DEVELOPING 500 UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OHIO
VLLY/MID ATLANTIC INTO A GIANT CLOSED POLAR VORTEX ACROSS NERN
QUARTER OF NATION LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO
CAPTURE OFFSHORE LOW AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO REGION.

OF FOREMOST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ACCUM SNOWS AND CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS FA AS COLUMN COOLS DUE TO LATENT MELTING
PROCESSES...STRONG UPWARD ASCENT...AND COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING INTO
REGION. TIMING OF CHANGEOVER OFFERED FROM MODELS STILL ON
TRACK...WITH MID TO LATE MORNING DACKS...TO EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
VT. LOWER VLLY LOCALES TO LIKELY SEE MORE OF A RAIN OF RAIN/SNOW MIX
EARLY BEFORE CHANGING OVER AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE EXCELLENT COUPLED JET DYNAMICS AND TREMENDOUS ISENTROPIC
LIFT/FGEN/QG FORCING AND HAVE MAINTAINED ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS
IS FOR NOW...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUM POSSBL...MAINLY ABV 1000
FT...THOUGH ACCUM SNOWS SHOULD OCCUR EVEN ON VALLEY FLOORS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW AS
UPPER/SFC FEATURES CONSOLIDATE ACROSS AREA. LATEST TRENDS INDICATE
MAIN BAND OF QG/FGEN TO LIFT INTO FAR NRN/NERN VT/NRN NH/NW ME LATER
THIS EVENING WITH MEAN COLUMNAR MOISTURE PROFILES LOWERING FROM
CENTRAL VT SOUTHWARD...THUS WARNINGS FOR SRN GREENS/DACKS AND
ADVISORIES FOR CHVLY WILL END AT 2AM WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF IN THESE
LOCALES. AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND OCCLUDING SFC LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN SHOULD PUSH BACK INTO MAINLY NRN
REGIONS WITH QPF TAKING ON A MORE OROGRAPHIC NATURE IN MEAN NW FLOW.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUM POSSBLY...MAINLY HIER TRRN.

UPPER LOW THEN EDGES SLOWLY EAST LATER WED NT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
ANY LINGERING SHSN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AND SKIES BECOMING PC BY
LATER THU NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. OPERATIONAL SOLNS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT AREA BY FRIDAY
W/WIDESPREAD -SHRAS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS...THEN COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA/-SHSN ENDING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MEAN HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND PC SKIES EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...
COASTAL LOW TAKING OVR AT 06Z WITH COLD VORTEX PROVIDING COOLING
ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY SFC FOR RA TO SN/+SN BTWN 11-14Z IN NY AND
13-17Z IN VT. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS ERLY...THEN COLDER
AIR AND PCPN CHGOVR WL BRG IFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS/VSBY AND PSBLY LIFR
BTWN 16-21Z. GRDL IMPROVEMENT AFT 00Z...ESP S OF MAIN TAF SITES AS
WRAPARD AXIS WL LKLY BE JUST ALG/N OF KMSS-KSLK-KBTV-KMPV LINE.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR VTZ003-006-008-016-017 FROM 11 AM
     TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR VTZ018-019 FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM
     WEDNESDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR VTZ004-007-010 FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8
     PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011 FROM 11 AM
     TUESDAY TO 2 AM WEDNESDAY.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ028-035 FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 2
     AM WEDNESDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NYZ029>031-034 FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2
     AM WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SLW









FXUS61 KBTV 040146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
946 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF TO GET UPDATED WARNING PRODUCTS OUT IN A
TIMELY FASHION. LARGE-SCALE QG FORCING NOW OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE NOT OBSERVED EXPECTED ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS ALONG THE WRN
SLOPES. BELIEVE WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...PROBABILITY OF
STRONG GUSTS AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IS DIMINISHING.
THUS...WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE PACKAGE.

DRAMATIC RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION STILL EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH
CHANGEOVER PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HOURS. STRONG
ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENCE STILL EXPECTED IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HVY PRECIP RATES...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE HVY SNOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
LATENT COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH MELTING CONDENSATE IN PLAY. THUS...WILL
PUT A WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VLY. TO AVOID
HAVING TOO MANY VARIOUS PRODUCTS OUT AT ONCE...WILL ALSO UPGRADE
WATCH OVER FAR NERN VT TO A WARNING NOW...PER COORD WITH GYX EARLIER
THIS EVENING. FORECAST PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT DURING THE 10 O/CLOCK
HOUR /2-3UTC/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 320 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006/

SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR TRENDS THIS AFTN SHOW A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN ACRS THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL POTENT PIECES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
JET COUPLETS. FIRST CLOSED S/W ENERGY IS LIFTING NE ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION NOTED BY
LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SE CONUS. NEXT
VIGOROUS PIECE OF ENERGY IS DROPPING SOUTH AND APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ATTM. THE INTERACTION BTWN THE TWO ENERGY
SOURCES AND THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
AND CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WL MAKE FOR A VERY DIFFICULT
FCST THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HRS. IN ADDITION...TO THE COMPLEX ULVL
PATTERN...THE TIME OF YEAR/HIGH SUN ANGLE...ALONG WITH LLVL THERMAL
PROFILE WL ADD UNCERTAINTY INTO PRECIP TYPE AND IF THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OVERALL...BASED ON UA ANALYSIS AND CRNT WATER VAPOR TRENDS MODELS
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH 5H/7H FEATURES ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS...ALONG WITH THE 25H JET STRUCTURE. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
PRIMARY LOW ACRS EASTERN MI WITH 3HR PRES FALLS INDICATING
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES
ATTM. INTERESTING SFC TEMP PROFILE THIS AFTN WITH MSS AT 46F AND A
NE WINDS...WHILE ROC HAS BROKEN INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND HAS A TEMP
OF 69F.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONT TO QUICKLY WEAKEN MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION ACRS THE
EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AS SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES CAPTURES
THIS ULVL FEATURE. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY SFC LOW WL LIFT NE AND
WEAKEN ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND SECONDARY COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE ALONG SFC
OCCLUSION. THIS WL BCM THE PRIMARY LOW TONIGHT AND TRACK NE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z WEDS.

FEEL MODELS WEAKEN INITIAL 5H TROF TOO QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL AGREE ON TAKING ANOTHER 5H VORT AROUND THE TROF
BASED AND ENHANCING SFC LOW PRES NEAR NYC TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THIS ENERGY WL HELP TO CURVE OUT A NEGATIVELY TILTED
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY 12Z TUES. PLENTY OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WL BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION FROM A 50-60KT LLVL
JET. THIS JET WL HELP TO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
OCCLUSION FRNT TONIGHT. WL MENTION CAT POPS IN ALL ZNS TONIGHT AND
THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP TO BE ALL
RAIN. NEXT QUESTION IS TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WL PULLED BACK INTO THE COLD AIR.

MODELS CONT TO INCREASE TIMING OF COLD AIR INTO OUR FA ON TUES WITH
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS. BASED ON
1000-850MB AND 850-700MB CRITICAL THICKNESS PATTERNS FEEL SNOW WL
DEVELOP BY 12Z ACRS SLV/HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS...AND BE INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT BY 15Z...AND INTO THE CPV/SOUTHERN VT BY
18Z TUES. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW RA/SN LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE -3C 85H
ISOTHERM FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND WL USE FOR RA/SN LINE
INTERPOLATION IN GRIDS. WITH PLENTY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH VERY
STRONG 850-700MB FGEN FORCING AND FAVORABLE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR FEEL
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACRS
THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS/GREENS. SOME SHADOWING MAY OCCUR ACRS
UPPER CT VALLEY FROM STRONG SE FLW TUES MORNING...BUT AS WINDS TURN
TO THE NW PRECIP WL QUICKLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. GFS/NAM
CONTS TO SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF STRONG 7H FGEN ROTATING ACRS OUR FA
THRU 12Z WEDS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LOW/MID LLVL
MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED WITH PROLONGED FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLW...ENHANCED 1000-850MB OMEGA FIELDS...AND PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND
LLVL MOISTURE WL INCREASE WATCH TO WARNING FOR THE DACKS/WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WL BE ABOVE 1000 FEET ACRS THE DACKS AND ALONG A JAY
PEAK TO STOWE LINE IN THE GREEN MTNS. WL MENTION TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE DACKS AND 8 TO 14 INCHES
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR
JAY PEAK BY WEDS MORNING. WL MENTION 4 TO 8 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND CONT WATCH FOR UPPER CT VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
DELAYING THE SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING. OTHERWISE...GIVEN STRONG
DYNAMICS AND VERY COLD AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO FA...FEEL EVEN CPV WL
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ON GRASSY SFC. WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
BY 00Z WEDS AND ANOTHER INCH OR SO OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS.

UPSLOPE FLW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT INTO WEDS WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR -10C...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S TO L40S. SOME
MORE ACCUMULATION WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND MTNS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL VT ON WEDS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS
WARM FRONTAL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES
WE SAW YESTERDAY STARTING TO COME TOGETHER...BUT ECMWF REMAINS THE
FASTEST IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY 12Z
SATURDAY. GFS DELAYS PASSAGE AS A SURFACE LOW SPINS UP IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY..THEN MOVES THROUGH ABOUT 12HRS BEHIND THE ECMWF
FORECAST. BETWEEN ALL SOLUTIONS...CHC POPS MOVE IN WEST TO EAST
STARTING FRIDAY...THEN DECREASE WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY.

DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO TIME THE MOVEMENT
OF COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...AND THUS PICK A TIME FOR
PRECIP CHANGEOVER. AT THIS TIME WENT WITH RW/SW MIX IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT KEPT ST. LAWRENCE...
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND RUTLAND/WINDSOR VT COUNTIES IN WARMER AIR AND
RAIN.

USED HPC GRIDS TO INITIALIZE WITH SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS.
TEMP/WIND/SKY GRIDS ALL OK.

AVIATION...
COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. BAND VFR LIGHT
RAIN MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH TAF SITES AT 18Z...SHOULD EXIT KMPV
BY 20Z. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE AFTER THE SHOWERS MOVE
EAST...AS LOW LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DOWN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH. CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER 00-06Z WITH RAIN
BEGINNING...BUT CIGS/VIS REMAIN VFR. BECOMING MVFR CIGS AND VIS AS
RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 06-12Z. CIGS CONT TO LOWER BUT
STAY MVFR THROUGH 12Z. 12-18Z COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NW TO
SE...WITH WINDS CHANGING SW TO NW AND IFR CIGS AND VIS. -RA TO
CHANGE TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW 12-15Z AND CONTINUE THRU 18Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR VTZ003-006-008-016-017 FROM 11 AM
     TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR VTZ018-019 FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM
     WEDNESDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR VTZ004-007-010 FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8
     PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011 FROM 11 AM
     TUESDAY TO 2 AM WEDNESDAY.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ028-035 FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 2
     AM WEDNESDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NYZ029>031-034 FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2
     AM WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS








FXUS61 KBTV 031919
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

FCST CHALLENGE IS UPCOMING PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT INTO WEDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACRS THE HIR TRRN.

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR TRENDS THIS AFTN SHOW A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN ACRS THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL POTENT PIECES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
JET COUPLETS. FIRST CLOSED S/W ENERGY IS LIFTING NE ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION NOTED BY
LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SE CONUS. NEXT
VIGOROUS PIECE OF ENERGY IS DROPPING SOUTH AND APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ATTM. THE INTERACTION BTWN THE TWO ENERGY
SOURCES AND THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
AND CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WL MAKE FOR A VERY DIFFICULT
FCST THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HRS. IN ADDITION...TO THE COMPLEX ULVL
PATTERN...THE TIME OF YEAR/HIGH SUN ANGLE...ALONG WITH LLVL THERMAL
PROFILE WL ADD UNCERTAINTY INTO PRECIP TYPE AND IF THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OVERALL...BASED ON UA ANALYSIS AND CRNT WATER VAPOR TRENDS MODELS
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH 5H/7H FEATURES ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS...ALONG WITH THE 25H JET STRUCTURE. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
PRIMARY LOW ACRS EASTERN MI WITH 3HR PRES FALLS INDICATING
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES
ATTM. INTERESTING SFC TEMP PROFILE THIS AFTN WITH MSS AT 46F AND A
NE WINDS...WHILE ROC HAS BROKEN INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND HAS A TEMP
OF 69F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONT TO QUICKLY WEAKEN MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION ACRS THE
EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AS SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES CAPTURES
THIS ULVL FEATURE. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY SFC LOW WL LIFT NE AND
WEAKEN ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND SECONDARY COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE ALONG SFC
OCCLUSION. THIS WL BCM THE PRIMARY LOW TONIGHT AND TRACK NE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z WEDS.

FEEL MODELS WEAKEN INITIAL 5H TROF TOO QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL AGREE ON TAKING ANOTHER 5H VORT AROUND THE TROF
BASED AND ENHANCING SFC LOW PRES NEAR NYC TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THIS ENERGY WL HELP TO CURVE OUT A NEGATIVELY TILTED
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY 12Z TUES. PLENTY OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WL BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION FROM A 50-60KT LLVL
JET. THIS JET WL HELP TO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
OCCLUSION FRNT TONIGHT. WL MENTION CAT POPS IN ALL ZNS TONIGHT AND
THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP TO BE ALL
RAIN. NEXT QUESTION IS TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WL PULLED BACK INTO THE COLD AIR.

MODELS CONT TO INCREASE TIMING OF COLD AIR INTO OUR FA ON TUES WITH
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS. BASED ON
1000-850MB AND 850-700MB CRITICAL THICKNESS PATTERNS FEEL SNOW WL
DEVELOP BY 12Z ACRS SLV/HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS...AND BE INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT BY 15Z...AND INTO THE CPV/SOUTHERN VT BY
18Z TUES. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW RA/SN LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE -3C 85H
ISOTHERM FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND WL USE FOR RA/SN LINE
INTERPOLATION IN GRIDS. WITH PLENTY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH VERY
STRONG 850-700MB FGEN FORCING AND FAVORABLE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR FEEL
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACRS
THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS/GREENS. SOME SHADOWING MAY OCCUR ACRS
UPPER CT VALLEY FROM STRONG SE FLW TUES MORNING...BUT AS WINDS TURN
TO THE NW PRECIP WL QUICKLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. GFS/NAM
CONTS TO SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF STRONG 7H FGEN ROTATING ACRS OUR FA
THRU 12Z WEDS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LOW/MID LLVL
MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED WITH PROLONGED FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLW...ENHANCED 1000-850MB OMEGA FIELDS...AND PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND
LLVL MOISTURE WL INCREASE WATCH TO WARNING FOR THE DACKS/WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WL BE ABOVE 1000 FEET ACRS THE DACKS AND ALONG A JAY
PEAK TO STOWE LINE IN THE GREEN MTNS. WL MENTION TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE DACKS AND 8 TO 14 INCHES
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR
JAY PEAK BY WEDS MORNING. WL MENTION 4 TO 8 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND CONT WATCH FOR UPPER CT VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
DELAYING THE SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING. OTHERWISE...GIVEN STRONG
DYNAMICS AND VERY COLD AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO FA...FEEL EVEN CPV WL
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ON GRASSY SFC. WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
BY 00Z WEDS AND ANOTHER INCH OR SO OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS.

UPSLOPE FLW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT INTO WEDS WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR -10C...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S TO L40S. SOME
MORE ACCUMULATION WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND MTNS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL VT ON WEDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS
WARM FRONTAL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES
WE SAW YESTERDAY STARTING TO COME TOGETHER...BUT ECMWF REMAINS THE
FASTEST IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY 12Z
SATURDAY. GFS DELAYS PASSAGE AS A SURFACE LOW SPINS UP IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY..THEN MOVES THROUGH ABOUT 12HRS BEHIND THE ECMWF
FORECAST. BETWEEN ALL SOLUTIONS...CHC POPS MOVE IN WEST TO EAST
STARTING FRIDAY...THEN DECREASE WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY.

DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO TIME THE MOVEMENT
OF COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...AND THUS PICK A TIME FOR
PRECIP CHANGEOVER. AT THIS TIME WENT WITH RW/SW MIX IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT KEPT ST. LAWRENCE...
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND RUTLAND/WINDSOR VT COUNTIES IN WARMER AIR AND
RAIN.

USED HPC GRIDS TO INITIALIZE WITH SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS.
TEMP/WIND/SKY GRIDS ALL OK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. BAND VFR LIGHT
RAIN MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH TAF SITES AT 18Z...SHOULD EXIT KMPV
BY 20Z. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE AFTER THE SHOWERS MOVE
EAST...AS LOW LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DOWN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH. CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER 00-06Z WITH RAIN
BEGINNING...BUT CIGS/VIS REMAIN VFR. BECOMING MVFR CIGS AND VIS AS
RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 06-12Z. CIGS CONT TO LOWER BUT
STAY MVFR THROUGH 12Z. 12-18Z COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NW TO
SE...WITH WINDS CHANGING SW TO NW AND IFR CIGS AND VIS. -RA TO
CHANGE TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW 12-15Z AND CONTINUE THRU 18Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FOR VTZ006-016>019 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR VTZ018-019 FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM
     WEDNESDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR VTZ003-006-008-016-017 FROM 11 AM
     TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VTZ004-007-010 FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 8
     AM THURSDAY.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NYZ029>031-034 FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2
     AM WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 4
December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
March 2006, Week 5
March 2006, Week 4
March 2006, Week 3
March 2006, Week 2
March 2006, Week 1
February 2006, Week 4
February 2006, Week 3
February 2006, Week 2
February 2006, Week 1
January 2006, Week 5
January 2006, Week 4
January 2006, Week 3
January 2006, Week 2
January 2006, Week 1
December 2005, Week 5
December 2005, Week 4
December 2005, Week 3
December 2005, Week 2
December 2005, Week 1
November 2005, Week 5
November 2005, Week 4
November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 4
July 2005, Week 3
July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
June 2005, Week 5
June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 4
May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 5
April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
January 2005, Week 2
January 2005, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 4
November 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
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April 2003, Week 2
April 2003, Week 1
March 2003, Week 5
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March 2003, Week 1
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February 2003, Week 3
February 2003, Week 2
February 2003, Week 1
January 2003, Week 5
January 2003, Week 4
January 2003, Week 3
January 2003, Week 2
January 2003, Week 1
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December 2002, Week 1
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November 2002, Week 2
November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
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October 2002, Week 1
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June 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 1
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