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SKIVT-L  June 2006, Week 3

SKIVT-L June 2006, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 18 Jun 2006 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (465 lines)

Expires:200606182115;;542793
FPUS51 KBTV 180730
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-182115-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH
330 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
PATCHY FOG UNTIL MID MORNING. HAZY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 
LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 
70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 
70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

NOAA's NWS will be accepting comments on proposed IWIN replacement pages
until April 30, 2006. Please learn more about the replacement and how to
leave a comment [2]here
   
          
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 180756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DECAYING CLD REMNANTS FROM MCS EARLIER YESTERDAY CONTINUE TO WORK S
AND E OVER THE CVLY AND REST OF VT THIS MORNING AND WILL CLR REGION
THIS MORNING AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER AREA.

HAZY COND EXPECTED OVER ENTIRE AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING AND CLDS
WILL INCR SOME THIS AFTNOON...DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS. CONSIDERED
MENTION OF POSSIBLE TS IN N NY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS ALOFT TO
WARM...CREATING INVERSION ALOFT...EVEN THOUGH CAPE AND SOME INSTAB
PRESENT. SO WILL LEAVE OUT. HAVE CONTINUED INHERITED FORECAST W/
PRECIP FOR MON INTO TUES W/ FROPA. MDLS HAVE SLOWED FRNT THRU AREA
DUE TO RIDGE PLACEMENT OVER PAST DAY/TWO. SO THIS WILL BE OF MONDAY
EVENT W/ TRAILING PRECIP ON TUES AS UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES THRU AREA.
SO WILL LEAVE ENTIRE CWA PRECIP-FREE TDY/TNGT. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW AND ADJUSTED FOR TIMING ISSUES W/ EARLY PRECIP TO MV INTO
SLV BY MON MORN..AND REST OF FA BY THE AFTERNOON. CWA IN OUTLOOK FOR
DY2 FOR SL CHANCE OF SEVERE TS. HAVE ONLY KEPT MENTION OF WIND
GUSTS...AS WORDED BLW...FOR NOW AND WILL GIVE NEXT SHIFTS MORE
UPDATED GUIDANCE FOR AND ENHANCED WORDING FOR UPCOMING FROPA.

FIRST GD HOT DAY ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NE WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS MORN...ALLOWING S/SW
WINDS TO WORK INTO THE REGION. THE WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN THE HUMID
AIRMASS WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. MDL 850MB TEMPS CONSISTENT W/ 18C TO 20C OVER PAST COUPLE
DAYS WHICH COULD WORK SFC TEMPS INTO LWR AND POSSIBLY MID 90S DURING
THE AFTNOON TDY. SOME OF THE HIGHS AROUND CWA COULD BE NEAR RECORDS:

RECORD HIGHS AROUND THE CWA FOR TODAY 6/18...
BURLINGTON INTL...97F (1994)
MASSENA...........97F (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY.....97F (1994)
MONTPELIER........93F (1994)

TEMPS DURING REST OF SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO EVEN W/ FRNT
MVG THRU AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF E AND S VT ON
MONDAY. DUE TO SLOW MVMNT OF FRNT THESE AREAS MAY SEE SOME EXTRA SUN
BFR CLDS/PRECIP WORK OVER AREA...SO WILL BUMP UP THESE AREAS A TAD
OVER REST OF CWA.

WINDS ACROSS THE CWA THRU SHORT TERM WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S/SW
DURING DAY AND FROPA 10 TO 15 MPH. HAVE PUT SOME GUST WORDING 30-40
MPH DURING FROPA ON MONDAY BUT MAY HAVE TO BE TWEAKED TO ENHANCED
WORDING IF ANY SEVERE WX POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MVG EAST LATE
TUES NGT...WINDS WILL SHIFT BEHIND EXITING FRNT TO MORE WNW AND HAVE
ADJUSTED IN GRIDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT PLANNING ON CHANGES TO EXTENDED ATTM. SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
CWA INTO EARLY THURS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED W/ EXITING
SYSTEM FROM TUES STILL LINGERS OVER E VT WED MORN. SOME CLDS SHOULD
REMAIN BUT QUICKLY CLR REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS EAST. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES REGION DURING THE DAY THURS...W/ MDLS SHOWING
SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OVER MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND MVG NORTH INTO
AREA FRIDAY. HIR QPF WITH SECOND SURGE AS THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SFC
FLOW OFF ATLANTIC AND DRAG IN MORE SFC MOISTURE. CUREENT FORECAST
HAS CHANCE FOR PRECIP/THUNDER.
&&

.AVIATION...
H/5 RDG AXIS KPIT-KBTV-KHUL WITH LIGHT NLY FLO OVR VT ATTM. H/5 AXIS
SHFTS E OF AREA LTR THIS AFTN. SFC HI MIDATLC CST AND OFSHORE WL
DRFT E TDY. LRG CLR AREA ON SATL IMAGERY ACRS NY/PA AND ERN GRTLKS
WHICHWL BE SOURCE FOR OUR WX TODAY. NXT WX SYS WL SPRD MID CLDS
ACRS ST LAW VLY AFTR 00Z TNGT...AS ASOCD INITIAL CDFNT MOVS SLOLY
INTO ERN GRTLKS LATE SUNDAY NGT.

WL CONT LCL MVFR CONDS IN BR AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BRF VARIABILITY
TO IFR THOSE SITES THRU 11Z THIS MRNG. ELSW IN OUR AREA...SCT-BKN
MID CLDS MOVG S ACRS VT AND EXTRM ERN NY ARE RMNTS OF EARLIER CNVTV
ACTIVITY. EXPC SCT-BKN CLDS ARND 7K FT THRU 10Z THIS MRNG WITH THIS
MESO SYS. OTRW SKC VSBY P6SM THRU 15Z. THEREAFTR P6SM SCT200 FOR
RMNDR OF TODAY. AFT 00Z TNGT...SCT-BKN AC 080-120K FT ST LAW VLY
WITH BKN CI ELSW. PTCHY HZ WITH VSBY 5SM AT KSLK AND KMPV AFTR 02Z
TNGT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...SFH









FXUS61 KBTV 180203 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW CLEAR SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
FORECAST CLEAR SKIES ALL AREAS AS A RESULT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...LOOKING AT SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIODS IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 228 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006/

...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TOMORROW...

SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TODAY WILL BUILD NEWD INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR THE DATE. THEREAFTER...CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND A NRN STREAM WAVE ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EWD AS OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY
PHASE INTO AN AMPLIFIED YET TRANSITIVE H5 TROF TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING PORTIONS OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE AVERAGES. AN ACTIVE BELT OF FAST ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...NO MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY THINNING OUT THIS AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL 1/3RD OF
FORECAST AREA...IN ZONE OF 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF
STG THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER OH RIVER VLY SWD TO THE
NERN GULF COAST REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TAKING THE SCENIC
ROUTE...FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH IMPINGING LOW-LEVEL WLY AIRSTREAM.
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED THE LOW 60S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY.

FOLLOWING MORNING MCS ACROSS NRN/ERN NY...WHICH IS DECAYING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LONG ISLAND...RISING HGTS SHOULD LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TONIGHT. PRIMARY WARM
ADVECTION ZONE SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN VT THIS EVENING...SO WE/LL HAVE
TO WATCH THIS AREA FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS. MAY CARRY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT PENDING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CLOSER TO ZONE
ISSUANCE TIME.

TOMORROW...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
DURING THE AFTN...850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +19C CRESTS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND WRK-NMM APPEAR TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS
W.R.T. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 75F IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VLY. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTN...BELIEVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 63-66 RANGE APPEAR MORE REASONABLE.
DEWPOINTS IN THIS RANGE MAINTAINS A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION...AND
BROAD SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE SFC
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION. BELIEVE WE CAN KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY TOMORROW...WITH HAZY AND HOT CONDITIONS THE RULE. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S...CONSISTENT WITH MOS CONSENSUS...
THOUGH LIKELY 3-4 DEGREES BELOW THE RECORD HIGHS LISTED BELOW.

RECORD HIGHS FOR 6/18:
BURLINGTON INTL...97F (1994)
MASSENA...........97F (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY.....97F (1994)
MONTPELIER........93F (1994)

TOMORROW NIGHT...WE BEGIN TO SEE MID-LEVEL HGT FALLS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. BY 12Z...SFC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO. IT APPEARS THAT CHANCE POPS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VLY REGION FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND DIURNAL HEATING ACT IN CONCERT
TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

AN IMPORTANT QUESTION FOR MONDAY IS EXTENT OF SVR WEATHER THREAT.
AS THE MID-UPR LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY AFTN...UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40KTS
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANTECEDENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON EXTENT OF
INSOLATIONAL HEATING THAT CAN TAKE PLACE EARLY MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...NAM SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE EWD REACHING THE CHAMPLAIN VLY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. THE
WRF-NMM IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH THE SFC TROUGH REACHING THE ST.
LAWRENCE VLY AROUND 21Z. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS FORCING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTN...LIKELY
AFFECTING MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE
SOME RESERVATIONS CONCERNING MAGNITUDE OF SVR THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF ONLY 6C/KM IN BOTH NAM/GFS SOLNS. THIS WILL
LIKELY MITIGATE INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS.
THUS...EXPECT ISOLD SVR STORMS AT THIS POINT...WITH HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTIVE FEATURES.
WILL RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY...BUT WILL RESERVE ANY ENHANCED
SVR WORDING FOR LATER SHIFTS.

TUESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRACK NW-SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS.
FURTHERMORE...12Z GFS SOLN TRACKS THE H5 TROF ACROSS THE CWA DURING
TUESDAY AFTN. HAVE CARRIED 30/40 POPS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL
CLEARING ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRESS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FA FOR MUCH OF WED/WED NITE...WITH A
SERIES OF TROFS/COLD FRONTS TO AFFECT THE FA ON NEXT THU THRU SAT.
HAVE HELD ONTO A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THE WED TIME-FRAME...WITH CHC
POPS FOR ANY CONVECTION ON THU THRU SAT. LOADED IN THE LATEST HPC
TEMP/DEWPT/WIND DATA...WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS.

AVIATION...
ALL TAF SITES /EXCEPT KMSS/ EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE OVRNITE TONITE.
SCT-BKN CLDS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BREAK UP AND LIFT ACRS THE FA BY
LATER TONITE AND INTO SUN. SFC WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN ACRS THE FA
OUT OF THE S-SW ON SUN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON





FXUS61 KBTV 171829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
228 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006

...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TOMORROW...

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TODAY WILL BUILD NEWD INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR THE DATE. THEREAFTER...CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND A NRN STREAM WAVE ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EWD AS OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY
PHASE INTO AN AMPLIFIED YET TRANSITIVE H5 TROF TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING PORTIONS OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE AVERAGES. AN ACTIVE BELT OF FAST ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...NO MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY THINNING OUT THIS AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL 1/3RD OF
FORECAST AREA...IN ZONE OF 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF
STG THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER OH RIVER VLY SWD TO THE
NERN GULF COAST REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TAKING THE SCENIC
ROUTE...FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH IMPINGING LOW-LEVEL WLY AIRSTREAM.
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED THE LOW 60S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY.

FOLLOWING MORNING MCS ACROSS NRN/ERN NY...WHICH IS DECAYING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LONG ISLAND...RISING HGTS SHOULD LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TONIGHT. PRIMARY WARM
ADVECTION ZONE SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN VT THIS EVENING...SO WE/LL HAVE
TO WATCH THIS AREA FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS. MAY CARRY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT PENDING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CLOSER TO ZONE
ISSUANCE TIME.

TOMORROW...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
DURING THE AFTN...850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +19C CRESTS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND WRK-NMM APPEAR TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS
W.R.T. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 75F IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VLY. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTN...BELIEVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 63-66 RANGE APPEAR MORE REASONABLE.
DEWPOINTS IN THIS RANGE MAINTAINS A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION...AND
BROAD SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE SFC
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION. BELIEVE WE CAN KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY TOMORROW...WITH HAZY AND HOT CONDITIONS THE RULE. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S...CONSISTENT WITH MOS CONSENSUS...
THOUGH LIKELY 3-4 DEGREES BELOW THE RECORD HIGHS LISTED BELOW.

RECORD HIGHS FOR 6/18:
BURLINGTON INTL...97F (1994)
MASSENA...........97F (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY.....97F (1994)
MONTPELIER........93F (1994)

TOMORROW NIGHT...WE BEGIN TO SEE MID-LEVEL HGT FALLS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. BY 12Z...SFC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO. IT APPEARS THAT CHANCE POPS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VLY REGION FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND DIURNAL HEATING ACT IN CONCERT
TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

AN IMPORTANT QUESTION FOR MONDAY IS EXTENT OF SVR WEATHER THREAT.
AS THE MID-UPR LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY AFTN...UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40KTS
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANTECEDENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON EXTENT OF
INSOLATIONAL HEATING THAT CAN TAKE PLACE EARLY MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...NAM SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE EWD REACHING THE CHAMPLAIN VLY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. THE
WRF-NMM IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH THE SFC TROUGH REACHING THE ST.
LAWRENCE VLY AROUND 21Z. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS FORCING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTN...LIKELY
AFFECTING MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE
SOME RESERVATIONS CONCERNING MAGNITUDE OF SVR THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF ONLY 6C/KM IN BOTH NAM/GFS SOLNS. THIS WILL
LIKELY MITIGATE INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS.
THUS...EXPECT ISOLD SVR STORMS AT THIS POINT...WITH HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTIVE FEATURES.
WILL RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY...BUT WILL RESERVE ANY ENHANCED
SVR WORDING FOR LATER SHIFTS.

TUESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRACK NW-SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS.
FURTHERMORE...12Z GFS SOLN TRACKS THE H5 TROF ACROSS THE CWA DURING
TUESDAY AFTN. HAVE CARRIED 30/40 POPS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL
CLEARING ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRESS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FA FOR MUCH OF WED/WED NITE...WITH A
SERIES OF TROFS/COLD FRONTS TO AFFECT THE FA ON NEXT THU THRU SAT.
HAVE HELD ONTO A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THE WED TIME-FRAME...WITH CHC
POPS FOR ANY CONVECTION ON THU THRU SAT. LOADED IN THE LATEST HPC
TEMP/DEWPT/WIND DATA...WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TAF SITES /EXCEPT KMSS/ EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE OVRNITE TONITE.
SCT-BKN CLDS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BREAK UP AND LIFT ACRS THE FA BY
LATER TONITE AND INTO SUN. SFC WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN ACRS THE FA
OUT OF THE S-SW ON SUN.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...MURRAY
AVIATION...MURRAY





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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December 2019, Week 5
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December 2018, Week 5
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December 2017, Week 5
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December 2016, Week 5
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November 2016, Week 5
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January 2016, Week 1
December 2015, Week 5
December 2015, Week 4
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December 2015, Week 1
November 2015, Week 5
November 2015, Week 4
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November 2015, Week 1
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October 2015, Week 4
October 2015, Week 3
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December 2014, Week 5
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November 2014, Week 5
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October 2014, Week 4
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December 2013, Week 5
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November 2013, Week 5
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March 2013, Week 1
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January 2013, Week 1
December 2012, Week 5
December 2012, Week 4
December 2012, Week 3
December 2012, Week 2
December 2012, Week 1
November 2012, Week 5
November 2012, Week 4
November 2012, Week 3
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November 2012, Week 1
October 2012, Week 5
October 2012, Week 4
October 2012, Week 3
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September 2012, Week 5
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June 2012, Week 1
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May 2012, Week 3
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April 2012, Week 5
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April 2012, Week 1
March 2012, Week 5
March 2012, Week 4
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March 2012, Week 1
February 2012, Week 5
February 2012, Week 4
February 2012, Week 3
February 2012, Week 2
February 2012, Week 1
January 2012, Week 5
January 2012, Week 4
January 2012, Week 3
January 2012, Week 2
January 2012, Week 1
December 2011, Week 5
December 2011, Week 4
December 2011, Week 3
December 2011, Week 2
December 2011, Week 1
November 2011, Week 5
November 2011, Week 4
November 2011, Week 3
November 2011, Week 2
November 2011, Week 1
October 2011, Week 5
October 2011, Week 4
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October 2011, Week 1
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September 2011, Week 1
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July 2011, Week 5
July 2011, Week 4
July 2011, Week 3
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June 2011, Week 5
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May 2011, Week 4
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April 2011, Week 5
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April 2011, Week 3
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April 2011, Week 1
March 2011, Week 5
March 2011, Week 4
March 2011, Week 3
March 2011, Week 2
March 2011, Week 1
February 2011, Week 4
February 2011, Week 3
February 2011, Week 2
February 2011, Week 1
January 2011, Week 5
January 2011, Week 4
January 2011, Week 3
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January 2011, Week 1
December 2010, Week 5
December 2010, Week 4
December 2010, Week 3
December 2010, Week 2
December 2010, Week 1
November 2010, Week 5
November 2010, Week 4
November 2010, Week 3
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November 2010, Week 1
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October 2010, Week 3
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September 2010, Week 1
August 2010, Week 5
August 2010, Week 4
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July 2010, Week 5
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May 2010, Week 3
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April 2010, Week 3
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April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
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March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
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February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
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January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
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October 2009, Week 3
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October 2009, Week 1
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September 2009, Week 3
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September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 3
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February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
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January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
December 2008, Week 4
December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
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September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
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August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
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March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
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March 2008, Week 1
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February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
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June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
December 2006, Week 4
December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
March 2006, Week 5
March 2006, Week 4
March 2006, Week 3
March 2006, Week 2
March 2006, Week 1
February 2006, Week 4
February 2006, Week 3
February 2006, Week 2
February 2006, Week 1
January 2006, Week 5
January 2006, Week 4
January 2006, Week 3
January 2006, Week 2
January 2006, Week 1
December 2005, Week 5
December 2005, Week 4
December 2005, Week 3
December 2005, Week 2
December 2005, Week 1
November 2005, Week 5
November 2005, Week 4
November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
July 2005, Week 5
July 2005, Week 4
July 2005, Week 3
July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
June 2005, Week 5
June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
May 2005, Week 4
May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
April 2005, Week 5
April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
January 2005, Week 2
January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
December 2004, Week 4
December 2004, Week 3
December 2004, Week 2
December 2004, Week 1
November 2004, Week 5
November 2004, Week 4
November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
September 2004, Week 5
September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
July 2004, Week 2
July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
May 2004, Week 4
May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
April 2004, Week 5
April 2004, Week 4
April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
March 2004, Week 5
March 2004, Week 4
March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
March 2004, Week 1
February 2004, Week 5
February 2004, Week 4
February 2004, Week 3
February 2004, Week 2
February 2004, Week 1
January 2004, Week 5
January 2004, Week 4
January 2004, Week 3
January 2004, Week 2
January 2004, Week 1
December 2003, Week 5
December 2003, Week 4
December 2003, Week 3
December 2003, Week 2
December 2003, Week 1
November 2003, Week 5
November 2003, Week 4
November 2003, Week 3
November 2003, Week 2
November 2003, Week 1
October 2003, Week 5
October 2003, Week 4
October 2003, Week 3
October 2003, Week 2
October 2003, Week 1
September 2003, Week 5
September 2003, Week 4
September 2003, Week 3
September 2003, Week 2
September 2003, Week 1
August 2003, Week 5
August 2003, Week 4
August 2003, Week 3
August 2003, Week 2
August 2003, Week 1
July 2003, Week 5
July 2003, Week 4
July 2003, Week 3
July 2003, Week 2
July 2003, Week 1
June 2003, Week 5
June 2003, Week 4
June 2003, Week 3
June 2003, Week 2
June 2003, Week 1
May 2003, Week 5
May 2003, Week 4
May 2003, Week 3
May 2003, Week 2
May 2003, Week 1
April 2003, Week 5
April 2003, Week 4
April 2003, Week 3
April 2003, Week 2
April 2003, Week 1
March 2003, Week 5
March 2003, Week 4
March 2003, Week 3
March 2003, Week 2
March 2003, Week 1
February 2003, Week 4
February 2003, Week 3
February 2003, Week 2
February 2003, Week 1
January 2003, Week 5
January 2003, Week 4
January 2003, Week 3
January 2003, Week 2
January 2003, Week 1
December 2002, Week 5
December 2002, Week 4
December 2002, Week 3
December 2002, Week 2
December 2002, Week 1
November 2002, Week 5
November 2002, Week 4
November 2002, Week 3
November 2002, Week 2
November 2002, Week 1
October 2002, Week 5
October 2002, Week 4
October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
September 2002, Week 5
September 2002, Week 4
September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
September 2002, Week 1
August 2002, Week 5
August 2002, Week 4
August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
August 2002, Week 1
July 2002, Week 5
July 2002, Week 4
July 2002, Week 3
July 2002, Week 2
July 2002, Week 1
June 2002, Week 5
June 2002, Week 4
June 2002, Week 3
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June 2002, Week 1
May 2002, Week 5
May 2002, Week 4
May 2002, Week 3
May 2002, Week 2
May 2002, Week 1
April 2002, Week 5
April 2002, Week 4
April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
December 2001, Week 5
December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
December 2001, Week 2
December 2001, Week 1
November 2001, Week 5
November 2001, Week 4
November 2001, Week 3
November 2001, Week 2
November 2001, Week 1
October 2001, Week 5
October 2001, Week 4
October 2001, Week 3
October 2001, Week 2
October 2001, Week 1
September 2001, Week 5
September 2001, Week 4
September 2001, Week 3
September 2001, Week 2
September 2001, Week 1
August 2001, Week 5
August 2001, Week 4
August 2001, Week 3
August 2001, Week 2
August 2001, Week 1
July 2001, Week 5
July 2001, Week 4
July 2001, Week 3
July 2001, Week 2
July 2001, Week 1
June 2001, Week 5
June 2001, Week 4
June 2001, Week 3
June 2001, Week 2
June 2001, Week 1
May 2001, Week 5
May 2001, Week 4
May 2001, Week 3
May 2001, Week 2
May 2001, Week 1
April 2001, Week 5
April 2001, Week 4
April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
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February 2001, Week 1
January 2001, Week 5
January 2001, Week 4
January 2001, Week 3
January 2001, Week 2
January 2001, Week 1
December 2000, Week 5
December 2000, Week 4
December 2000, Week 3
December 2000, Week 2
December 2000, Week 1
November 2000, Week 5
November 2000, Week 4
November 2000, Week 3
November 2000, Week 2
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