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SKIVT-L  July 2006, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2006, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 21 Jul 2006 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (500 lines)

Expires:200607212215;;358437
FPUS51 KBTV 210753
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006


VTZ006-008-016>018-212215-
LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 
10 MPH...BECOMING WEST THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND
60. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 
10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 
UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

NOAA's NWS will be accepting comments on proposed IWIN replacement pages
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     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 210857
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
454 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TWO PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS MORNING...THE FIRST BEING FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ACROSS FA DURING THE NEXT 12
HRS OR SO. THEREAFTER...EXPECTED DECELERATION OF FRONTAL ZONE NEAR
SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY HAS
BEEN PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT TO GET MODEL CONSENSUS OR EVEN
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ON...AND THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR POPS/RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND /ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/.

EARLY THIS MORNING...PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD
CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO/SERN ONTARIO AT 08Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
EXTENDS AT 08Z FROM NR THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY SWWD ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH AN EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO NR OR SLIGHTLY
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VLY BY 00Z THIS EVENING. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF
THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP PER 00Z ALB
SOUNDING...AND THIS COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
FA THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. DPVA AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SMALL MCS ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL NY. GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS...BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VLY EWD
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLD/SCT TSTMS EXPECTED. MOIST INFLOW TO THE MCS
IS
FROM THE SW...AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF TSTM
ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. IMPORTANTLY...WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS MCS OR FROPA DUE TO
MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AS MENTIONED
ABV. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE BETWEEN
ONE-HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. TIMING OF FROPA
SUGGESTS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY BY AFTN ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VLY AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT MOVES TO THE
EAST.

SFC FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE CHAMPLAIN VLY EWD. PARTIAL CLEARING
THEREAFTER AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL DRY ADVECTION/GRADIENT WIND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS MODELS DIFFER
ON WHERE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS
IMPORTANT BECAUSE WV IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO INDUCE SOME DEGREE
OF SFC CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BEGINNING DURING THE
18Z SAT-00Z SUN TIME FRAME BEFORE CONTINUING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT.
GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF MID-LVL FLOW PRESENTLY...PREFER A
FRONTAL DISPLACEMENT SOUTH OF 00Z GFS DEPICTION...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO
THE WRF-NMM AT 12Z SATURDAY...FROM THE GULF OF MAINE TO SOUTH OF
NYC. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR
A 30 POP FOR -RW FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES JUST IN CASE FRONT
DOESN/T MAKE IT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH.

THEREAFTER...BELIEVE SFC LOW ALONG STALLED FRONT IS LARGELY
OVERDEVELOPED FOR SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY IN BOTH 00Z GFS AND
WRF-NMM SOLNS. AT 24 HRS...GFS SOLN BECOMES INFLUENCED BY LARGE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MID-MS VLY REGION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SEWD...AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH H5 VORT AS IT
TRACKS NEWD TOWARD THE NERN CONUS TOMORROW. THE WRF-NMM SEEMS TOO
FAR INLAND WITH SFC LOW AT 06Z SUNDAY OVER SERN PA WHERE A
CO-LOCATED CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAX IS LOCATED. LOW TRACK IN WRF-NMM IS
ACROSS SERN VT AT 18Z SUNDAY WHICH IS A SUBSTANTIAL OUTLIER AND
YIELDS 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WAS NOT
APPARENT IN ANY MODEL BEFORE THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. ALSO...THERE ARE
STILL SOLNS WHICH SUPPORT EARLIER THINKING...INCLUDING THE 00Z
GEM...00Z ECMWF...AND 21Z SREF GUIDANCE. THE CONSENSUS OF THESE
SOLNS
SHOW A MORE MODEST FRONTAL WAVE OF 1008MB OR SO TRACKING FROM NJ TO
CAPE COD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN
GFS/WRF-NMM...FELT IT BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND HAVE MADE A FORECAST BASED ON THE
GEM/ECMWF/21Z SREF SCENARIO...WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASING ACROSS ERN HALF OF FA SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
SPREADING 30-40 POPS AS FAR WWD AS THE CHAMPLAIN VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
KSLK STANDS TO HAVE THE BEST CHC AT STAYING DECOUPLED FOR THE REST
OF THE OVRNITE HRS. KMSS/KMPV TO HAVE AT OUTSIDE CHC AT SEEING SOME
LOWER CIGS AS WELL FOR THE REST OF THE OVRNITE. SFC WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY AND SLACKEN OFF INTO FRI NITE. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ACRS THE FA THRU MUCH OF TODAY...BUT HARD TO TIME WHEN/IF
ANY TSRA WILL OCCUR AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES ATTM. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON TSRA TO THE EAST OF LK ONT AND SEE IF IT CAN MAKE IT ACRS THE
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT/S IN PLACE ACRS MUCH OF OUR FA ATTM.
DECENT CHC AT SEEING SOME HZ ACRS MUCH OF THE FA WITH HIR SFC DEWPTS
FORECASTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MURRAY






FXUS61 KBTV 210157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
957 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO
SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AS WELL. WILL
UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS TO GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT... AND TO RAISE MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF
THE ZONES DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WILL ALSO REMOVE REFERENCES TO THIS EVENING
AND MOST REFERENCES TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 230 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006/

SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEVERAL IMPORTANT FACTORS.
FIRST...MOISTURE/WINDS FROM TS BERYL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTN
WL STAY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF FA...BUT CANOPY OF CIRRUS MAY ADVECT
INTO SOUTHERN ZNS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...STRONG S/W ENERGY AND
ULVL JET IS HELPING TO ENHANCE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DECAYING MCS
PER LATEST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WL CONT TO PROPAGATE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS ENERGY COMBINED WITH LLVL INSTABILITY AND A SFC FRNT WL
APPROACH OUR SLV ZNS BY TONIGHT AND INTO THE REST OF THE FA ON
FRIDAY. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF ULVL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC FRNT FOR THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. FURTHER UPSTREAM ACRS CENTRAL MT/WY
ANOTHER S/W AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/LIFT IS QUICKLY MOVING ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES AND WL ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.

VIS SAT PIC CLOSER TO HOME SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 5H
VORT MOVING ACRS THE SLV ATTM. THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH LLVL
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS HELPED TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACRS
WESTERN/CENTRAL ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE CLIMBING
INTO THE 80S WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ACRS VT TO M/U 60S
ACRS NNY THIS AFTN.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM FCST CONCERN WL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACRS SLV
TONIGHT AND THREAT FOR SOME STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
MID/UPPER LVL TROF TO IMPACT WESTERN ZNS TONIGHT LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ATTM WITH STEADY MOVEMENT TOWARD OUR CWA. LATEST
RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MI/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH GENERAL
MOVEMENT TOWARD OUR CWA. BIG QUESTION WL BE AMOUNT OF LLVL
INSTABILITY AS LINE OF CONVECTION APPROACHES SLV BTWN 02-04Z. LOCAL
4KM WRF AND 12KM NAM SHOW AXIS OF CAPE BTWN 400-800 J/KG ACRS THE
SLV VALLEY WITH PLENTY OF LLVL WIND SHEAR PROVIDED BY 85H JET OF 30
TO 40 KNTS. THIS JET WL ALSO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
TRANSPORT A TONGUE OF HIGHER THETA E AIR INTO OUR WESTERN ZNS. A
QUICK CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS WORKSHEET NEAR MSS AT 06Z SHOWS TOTAL
0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 70 KNTS WITH 0-3KM COMPUTED SHEAR OF 45 KNTS...LIS
AROUND -3C...AND CAPE OF 750 J/KG. GIVEN...THESE PARAMETERS AND
PREDICTED UPSTREAM ACTIVITY AND SPC HAVING OUR WESTERN ZNS IN LATE
DAY1 SLIGHT RISK WL MENTION ENHANCED WORDING IN TEXT. FEEL ACTIVITY
WL HAVE JUST ENOUGH LLVL INSTABILITY TO HOLD TOGETHER AND WITH
PLENTY OF LLVL SHEAR EXPECT STORMS TO HAVE SOME ORGANIZATION
WITH LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS MAIN SVR WX THREAT.
WL MENTION LIKELY POPS AFT 03Z SLV AND TAPER TO SLIGHT CHC EASTERN
VT ZNS FOR TONIGHT.

FRIDAY FCSTS WL BE COMPLICATED BASED ON PLACE OF ON GOING CONVECTION
AND MOVEMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND COLD FRNT ACRS OUR FA.
FIRST...PRE FRONTAL TROF AND INITIAL 5H VORT WL MV INTO THE CPV BY
12Z AND ACRS EASTERN VT BY 15Z ON FRIDAY WITH DECAYING AREA OF
CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...NEXT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WL
APPROACH THE SLV BY 15Z AND INTO THE CPV BY 18Z FRIDAY. MANY
QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH LLVL INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP FROM SFC
HEATING/MOISTURE BEHIND INITIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS. MEANWHILE...
BEST LLVL SHEAR LIFTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FROM COOL POOL ALOFT.
SFC FRNT ALONG WITH BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WL SLOWLY PUSH INTO SNE/MID
ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY EVENING AND STALL AS IT PARALLELS THE ULVL FLW.
MEANWHILE...NEXT POTENT S/W ENERGY NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MT WL
ROUND TROF BASE ACRS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES
ALONG THE FRNT BY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS AREA OF
LOW PRES WL TRACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SNE BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF
FRNT/ENERGY AND THE ASSOCIATED QPF FIELDS. THE 12Z GFS PLACES BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACRS CENTRAL PA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
THE SFC LOW PRES TRACKING OVER BOSTON. MEANWHILE...THE NAM SHOWS THE
AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF AND ASSOCIATED LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH ACRS
OUR FA WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING FROM IPT TO NEAR ALB BY SUNDAY. WL
CONT WITH PREVIOUS FCSTER THINKING...BUT WL MENTION CHC POPS ACRS
SOUTHERN ZNS ASSOCIATED WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND LOCATION OF FRNT.
OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 12C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
LIFTS OUT AND REPLACED BY RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
BY WEDNESDAY.  MODEL DIFFERENCES EVIDENT ON HOW THE TRANSITION FROM
TROF TO ZONAL EVOLVES SO ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROFS DIFFICULT
TO TIME IN THIS REGIME. IT APPEARS THAT WARMING AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.  AT THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL BECOMINE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN US. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY NORTH CLOSER TO THE
ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY (75-80) AND WILL BE WARMING A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL(80S) BY MID WEEK WITH INCREASED HAZE AND
HUMDITY.

AVIATION...
S/W AND SPEED MAX OF H5 JET DROPPING THRU GRT LAKES WL HELP PUSH SFC
CD FNT INTO ST LWRNC VLY BY 06Z AND THEN PARALLEL FLOW SLOWS PROGRESS
OF FNT FOR CLDS/-SHRA AND ENUF INSTABILITY FOR SCT -TSRA FOR REST OF
FA AFT 08-10Z.

THE INITIAL PUSH/ONSET BRINGS -SHRA/-TSRA INTO ST LWRNC VLY AFT 00Z
AND REACHING ADRNDKS (KSLK) BY 04Z BUT SLOWLY DECAYING AS THEY MV E
INTO CHMPL VLY E AFT 10Z.

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT WITH MVFR IN -SHRA/-TSRA AND VRY LCLZD
AND BRF IFR UNDER MAIN TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH










FXUS61 KBTV 201826
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

FCST PROBLEMS WL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT ACRS
THE SLV...FOLLOWED BY CHCS OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THRU SUNDAY.

.SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEVERAL IMPORTANT FACTORS.
FIRST...MOISTURE/WINDS FROM TS BERYL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTN
WL STAY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF FA...BUT CANOPY OF CIRRUS MAY ADVECT
INTO SOUTHERN ZNS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...STRONG S/W ENERGY AND
ULVL JET IS HELPING TO ENHANCE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DECAYING MCS
PER LATEST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WL CONT TO PROPAGATE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS ENERGY COMBINED WITH LLVL INSTABILITY AND A SFC FRNT WL
APPROACH OUR SLV ZNS BY TONIGHT AND INTO THE REST OF THE FA ON
FRIDAY. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF ULVL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC FRNT FOR THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. FURTHER UPSTREAM ACRS CENTRAL MT/WY
ANOTHER S/W AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/LIFT IS QUICKLY MOVING ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES AND WL ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.

VIS SAT PIC CLOSER TO HOME SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 5H
VORT MOVING ACRS THE SLV ATTM. THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH LLVL
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS HELPED TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACRS
WESTERN/CENTRAL ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE CLIMBING
INTO THE 80S WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ACRS VT TO M/U 60S
ACRS NNY THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM FCST CONCERN WL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACRS SLV
TONIGHT AND THREAT FOR SOME STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
MID/UPPER LVL TROF TO IMPACT WESTERN ZNS TONIGHT LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ATTM WITH STEADY MOVEMENT TOWARD OUR CWA. LATEST
RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MI/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH GENERAL
MOVEMENT TOWARD OUR CWA. BIG QUESTION WL BE AMOUNT OF LLVL
INSTABILITY AS LINE OF CONVECTION APPROACHES SLV BTWN 02-04Z. LOCAL
4KM WRF AND 12KM NAM SHOW AXIS OF CAPE BTWN 400-800 J/KG ACRS THE
SLV VALLEY WITH PLENTY OF LLVL WIND SHEAR PROVIDED BY 85H JET OF 30
TO 40 KNTS. THIS JET WL ALSO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
TRANSPORT A TONGUE OF HIGHER THETA E AIR INTO OUR WESTERN ZNS. A
QUICK CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS WORKSHEET NEAR MSS AT 06Z SHOWS TOTAL
0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 70 KNTS WITH 0-3KM COMPUTED SHEAR OF 45 KNTS...LIS
AROUND -3C...AND CAPE OF 750 J/KG. GIVEN...THESE PARAMETERS AND
PREDICTED UPSTREAM ACTIVITY AND SPC HAVING OUR WESTERN ZNS IN LATE
DAY1 SLIGHT RISK WL MENTION ENHANCED WORDING IN TEXT. FEEL ACTIVITY
WL HAVE JUST ENOUGH LLVL INSTABILITY TO HOLD TOGETHER AND WITH
PLENTY OF LLVL SHEAR EXPECT STORMS TO HAVE SOME ORGANIZATION
WITH LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS MAIN SVR WX THREAT.
WL MENTION LIKELY POPS AFT 03Z SLV AND TAPER TO SLIGHT CHC EASTERN
VT ZNS FOR TONIGHT.

FRIDAY FCSTS WL BE COMPLICATED BASED ON PLACE OF ON GOING CONVECTION
AND MOVEMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND COLD FRNT ACRS OUR FA.
FIRST...PRE FRONTAL TROF AND INITIAL 5H VORT WL MV INTO THE CPV BY
12Z AND ACRS EASTERN VT BY 15Z ON FRIDAY WITH DECAYING AREA OF
CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...NEXT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WL
APPROACH THE SLV BY 15Z AND INTO THE CPV BY 18Z FRIDAY. MANY
QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH LLVL INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP FROM SFC
HEATING/MOISTURE BEHIND INITIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS. MEANWHILE...
BEST LLVL SHEAR LIFTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FROM COOL POOL ALOFT.
SFC FRNT ALONG WITH BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WL SLOWLY PUSH INTO SNE/MID
ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY EVENING AND STALL AS IT PARALLELS THE ULVL FLW.
MEANWHILE...NEXT POTENT S/W ENERGY NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MT WL
ROUND TROF BASE ACRS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES
ALONG THE FRNT BY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS AREA OF
LOW PRES WL TRACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SNE BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF
FRNT/ENERGY AND THE ASSOCIATED QPF FIELDS. THE 12Z GFS PLACES BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACRS CENTRAL PA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
THE SFC LOW PRES TRACKING OVER BOSTON. MEANWHILE...THE NAM SHOWS THE
AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF AND ASSOCIATED LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH ACRS
OUR FA WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING FROM IPT TO NEAR ALB BY SUNDAY. WL
CONT WITH PREVIOUS FCSTER THINKING...BUT WL MENTION CHC POPS ACRS
SOUTHERN ZNS ASSOCIATED WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND LOCATION OF FRNT.
OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 12C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
LIFTS OUT AND REPLACED BY RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
BY WEDNESDAY.  MODEL DIFFERENCES EVIDENT ON HOW THE TRANSITION FROM
TROF TO ZONAL EVOLVES SO ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROFS DIFFICULT
TO TIME IN THIS REGIME. IT APPEARS THAT WARMING AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.  AT THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL BECOMINE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN US. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY NORTH CLOSER TO THE
ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY (75-80) AND WILL BE WARMING A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL(80S) BY MID WEEK WITH INCREASED HAZE AND
HUMDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
S/W AND SPEED MAX OF H5 JET DROPPING THRU GRT LAKES WL HELP PUSH SFC
CD FNT INTO ST LWRNC VLY BY 06Z AND THEN PARALLEL FLOW SLOWS PROGRESS
OF FNT FOR CLDS/-SHRA AND ENUF INSTABILITY FOR SCT -TSRA FOR REST OF
FA AFT 08-10Z.

THE INITIAL PUSH/ONSET BRINGS -SHRA/-TSRA INTO ST LWRNC VLY AFT 00Z
AND REACHING ADRNDKS (KSLK) BY 04Z BUT SLOWLY DECAYING AS THEY MV E
INTO CHMPL VLY E AFT 10Z.

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT WITH MVFR IN -SHRA/-TSRA AND VRY LCLZD
AND BRF IFR UNDER MAIN TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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June 2009, Week 3
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April 2009, Week 4
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
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February 2009, Week 3
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November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
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October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
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September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
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May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
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April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
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March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
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August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
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July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
January 2005, Week 2
January 2005, Week 1
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December 2004, Week 1
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