Expires:200609292115;;134783
FPUS51 KBTV 290706
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
305 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006


VTZ006-008-292115-
LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER
305 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...THEN A CHANCE 
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. 
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST 10 TO 
15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS 
EVENING...
THEN MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER WITH 
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...DIMINISHING LATE. 
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLEARING. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS
AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 290806
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006

...FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WITH 1-3 HOURS OF MODERATE TO HVY
RAIN ACROSS VERMONT ZONES...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES A SLOW EASTWARD
MOTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT/S TAKEN NEARLY 24 HOURS NOW FOR
THE BAND TO PROGRESS ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES. AT 0730Z...THE
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WAS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION WAS NEARING A MASSENA TO
WANAKENA LINE...WITH BANDS OF LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING IS FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
VT...WITH RAIN HEAVY FOR A PERIOD OF 1-3 HRS THIS MORNING FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VLY EWD. WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WE SHOULD SEE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
PRECIPITATION BAND INCREASE BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS VT BY AFTN. FAR WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOME MORE
ISOLD BY AFTERNOON. STG FORCED ASCENT AND MARGINALLY INSTABILITY
SUGGESTED A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS WINDSOR AND
ORANGE CONTINUES BETWEEN 12-16Z...AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE ZONES AND GRIDDED FORECAST. ONGOING WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED ON TIME
AT 8 AM AS SHIFT IN WINDS FROM THE S TO THE W WILL BRING THE LOCALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO A CLOSE. CFROPA WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR GENERALLY STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA...INTO THE UPPER 40S NRN NY TO LOW 50S
ACROSS VT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE
2500 FT IN CENTRAL/NRN/NERN VT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY IN
PREVIOUS GRIDDED FORECAST SHOWING THIS DURING THE 22-04Z TIME FRAME
FOR SELECT HIGH ELEVATION GRID POINTS.

FOLLOWING THE MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/LESSENING SFC WINDS. NEXT ISSUE TO
CONSIDER IS POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VT...AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE FROST HAS GENERALLY NOT
OCCURRED YET THIS SEASON. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TEMPERATURES
IN THE 33-36F RANGE IN THESE AREAS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO LOOK
AT THE NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED MENTION IN THE
ZONES/GRIDS IN THESE AREAS AFTER 04Z TONIGHT.

TOMORROW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE FA. MOBILE
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MTNS AT 00Z
SATURDAY TRACKS NEWD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /AROUND 60F IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS/...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
LIKELY TO START THE DAY. AMPLIFIED MID-UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH RIDGE
ALONG WEST COAST AND STRONG 300MB JET WINDS IN NWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF YET ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z SUNDAY.
INCREASING SLY 850MB FLOW...TO 40KTS BY 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
NY...RESULTS IN INCREASING WAA AND LIKELY INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY
AFTN. THOUGH IT INCREASINGLY APPEARS THAT STRONGEST QG FORCING WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY - AS H5 TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD - AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE SLOWED TIMING SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT OVERALL POPS AND EVOLUTION OF RAINFALL IS
LARGELY UNCHANGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO AFFECT US
SUNDAY CLOSES OFF AT 500MB OVER ERN PA AT 00Z MONDAY...AND THEN
SLOWLY DRIFTS EWD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY MONDAY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT.
THEREAFTER...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT 500MB BUILDS NEWD INTO THE FA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING SFC TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A RELATIVELY FLAT...AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY LIKELY BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EPISODE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS MEANS THE 1ST FROST OF THE SEASON IS
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THE LOWER PASSUMPSIC
VALLEY...AND CT VALLEY...DEVELOPING BETWEEN 04-12Z THURSDAY...OCT
5TH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SLOW MVG FRNTL BOUNDARY PUSHING N AND E OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA FOR ALL FORECAST SITES TO
VARY GREATLY TIL PRECIP PUSHES THRU. ALL AREAS WILL BE IN MVFR RANGE
MAINLY DUE TO -RW/-RA BRINGING VSBY DOWN TO 3-5SM. AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FOR KSLK/KMPV...COND WILL GO DOWN TO IFR IN
HEAVIER RAINFALL...FOG AND CEILINGS OVC010 OR LWR. WINDS WILL BE
NEAR LGT/VAR IN PRECIP...SHIFTING TO MORE WNW AS FRNT PUSHES THRU AT
10 TO 20KTS...TAPERING OFF TO 10KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z. COND WILL
IMPROVE AS WELL AS DAY PROGRESSES W/ MAINLY VFR/MVFR COND W/ LGT
RAIN/FG AND HIR CEILINGS THAN EARLIER IN DAY. HIR TRRN WILL BE OBSCD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FOR VTZ016>019 UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...JN









FXUS61 KBTV 290214
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. RAIN HAS BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD.
18Z GFS MODEL RUN HOLDS OFF ON BRINGING RAIN INTO VERMONT AFTER
06Z...AND GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. ANY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS...AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT WE
WOULD NEED 6 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS IN VERMONT TO CAUSE
ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS
TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING...AND TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEW YORK ZONES OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP UP THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...AS RUTLAND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW
GUSTY WINDS AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 339 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006/

SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST THRU TONITE AND
FRI.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WK H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE...WITH CAA DEVELOPING ON
FRI. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA THRU FRI. MID-LVL MSTR TO
AFFECT MUCH OF THE FA TONITE AND ON FRI. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK
TO BE AROUND AN INCH TONITE AND ON FRI. CAPES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE
BLW 300 J/KG ON FRI.

SOME AGEOSTROPHIC MOTION NOTED ONLY AT H85 ACRS THE FA THRU FRI. PK
WINDS ACRS THE FA...OUT OF THE S-SW MOSTLY...LOOK TO BE IN THE
35-60 KT RANGE AT H85/7/5 THRU FRI. PK H1000 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS ACRS
THE FA LOOK TO BE 30-40 KTS. BL WINDS ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE S-SE AT
ONLY 10-25 KTS. 24-HR SFC PRESS FALLS ACRS THE FA LOOK TO ONLY BE
AROUND 12 MB. ANY HIR SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE VERY
HIGHEST TRRN TONITE...WHERE THE GOING WIND ADVISORY IS UP AND WILL
REMAIN FOR THE TIME BEING.

PCPN EXPECTED TO CONT TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM THE WEST
INTO TONITE. JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST THRU FRI.
STEADIEST PCPN EXPECTED ACRS THE FA LATER TONITE AND EARLY ON FRI. TS
THREAT ACRS THE FA CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL AND HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S-L60S ON FRI.
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME TEMP/WIND FCSTS IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD OTRW.

PRELIM WRK ZONES AND ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 PM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE/AMPLIFIED EARLY FALL PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NERN CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF EXTENDED WITH TWO ADDL SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE REGION.
LATEST OP/ENSEMBLE SOLNS STILL ON BOARD WITH THE NEXT DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY LATER
SAT/SAT NT...WITH PCPN ADVANCING INTO NRN NY BY OVERNT SAT. LATEST
TRENDS ARE FOR THIS TROUGH TO ALSO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY STATES. THUS PCPN
SHIELD SHOULD ADVANCE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NRN NY
SAT NT/EARLY SUN...AND NOT ARRIVE INTO ERN VT UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH THEN CLOSES OFF ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
BROAD SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH EXCELLENT QG FORCING SUPPORTS CURRENT
LIKELY POPS FOR SUN/SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE PCPN TAPERS
OFF LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

AFTERWARDS...GENERALLY FAIR/DRY CONDS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES AREA. BRIEF
SURGE OF +11-13C 850 HPA AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM DAY
DURING TUESDAY...ESP EAST. THEN SLV SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT AFFECT AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT W/ADDL CHCS
OF -SHRA. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST SFC CENTER WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE
REGION...THUS LOOKING AT MORE SCT -SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD RAFL. FRONT THEN CLEARS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDS UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

AVIATION...
CLDS/PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST. SFC WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY BY SOMETIME ON FRI.

HYDROLOGY...
24-HR QPE ACRS THE FA /THRU 13-14Z TODAY/ LOOKS TO BE NIL. EXPECTED
QPF THRU 00Z SAT ACRS THE FA LOOKS TO BE BLW 2-3". THE LATEST NERFC
HYDRO GUIDANCE SEZ THAT THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED
WITH RELATIVELY FEW PROBLEMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FOR VTZ016>019 UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH











FXUS61 KBTV 281939
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST THRU TONITE AND
FRI.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WK H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE...WITH CAA DEVELOPING ON
FRI. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA THRU FRI. MID-LVL MSTR TO
AFFECT MUCH OF THE FA TONITE AND ON FRI. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK
TO BE AROUND AN INCH TONITE AND ON FRI. CAPES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE
BLW 300 J/KG ON FRI.

SOME AGEOSTROPHIC MOTION NOTED ONLY AT H85 ACRS THE FA THRU FRI. PK
WINDS ACRS THE FA...OUT OF THE S-SW MOSTLY...LOOK TO BE IN THE
35-60 KT RANGE AT H85/7/5 THRU FRI. PK H1000 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS ACRS
THE FA LOOK TO BE 30-40 KTS. BL WINDS ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE S-SE AT
ONLY 10-25 KTS. 24-HR SFC PRESS FALLS ACRS THE FA LOOK TO ONLY BE
AROUND 12 MB. ANY HIR SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE VERY
HIGHEST TRRN TONITE...WHERE THE GOING WIND ADVISORY IS UP AND WILL
REMAIN FOR THE TIME BEING.

PCPN EXPECTED TO CONT TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM THE WEST
INTO TONITE. JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST THRU FRI.
STEADIEST PCPN EXPECTED ACRS THE FA LATER TONITE AND EARLY ON FRI. TS
THREAT ACRS THE FA CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL AND HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S-L60S ON FRI.
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME TEMP/WIND FCSTS IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD OTRW.

PRELIM WRK ZONES AND ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 PM.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE/AMPLIFIED EARLY FALL PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NERN CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF EXTENDED WITH TWO ADDL SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE REGION.
LATEST OP/ENSEMBLE SOLNS STILL ON BOARD WITH THE NEXT DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY LATER
SAT/SAT NT...WITH PCPN ADVANCING INTO NRN NY BY OVERNT SAT. LATEST
TRENDS ARE FOR THIS TROUGH TO ALSO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY STATES. THUS PCPN
SHIELD SHOULD ADVANCE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NRN NY
SAT NT/EARLY SUN...AND NOT ARRIVE INTO ERN VT UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH THEN CLOSES OFF ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
BROAD SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH EXCELLENT QG FORCING SUPPORTS CURRENT
LIKELY POPS FOR SUN/SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE PCPN TAPERS
OFF LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

AFTERWARDS...GENERALLY FAIR/DRY CONDS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES AREA. BRIEF
SURGE OF +11-13C 850 HPA AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM DAY
DURING TUESDAY...ESP EAST. THEN SLV SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT AFFECT AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT W/ADDL CHCS
OF -SHRA. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST SFC CENTER WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE
REGION...THUS LOOKING AT MORE SCT -SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD RAFL. FRONT THEN CLEARS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDS UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

.AVIATION...
CLDS/PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST. SFC WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY BY SOMETIME ON FRI.

.HYDROLOGY...
24-HR QPE ACRS THE FA /THRU 13-14Z TODAY/ LOOKS TO BE NIL. EXPECTED
QPF THRU 00Z SAT ACRS THE FA LOOKS TO BE BLW 2-3". THE LATEST NERFC
HYDRO GUIDANCE SEZ THAT THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED
WITH RELATIVELY FEW PROBLEMS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FOR VTZ016>019 FROM 11 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM
     FRIDAY.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...MURRAY
LONG TERM...JMG




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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