Expires:200610182215;;597739
FPUS51 KBTV 180733
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT WED OCT 18 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-182215-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
330 AM EDT WED OCT 18 2006

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
THEN RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 
MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS
AROUND 50. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 180847
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
440 AM EDT WED OCT 18 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVG THRU ST LWR VLY EARLY TDY. OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCD
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACRS FA THRU MID MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL BE EXITING FA PRIOR TO 12Z AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO
REGION...BUT EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SHWRS OR DRIZZLE TILL PASSAGE OF
OCCLUSION. STLT PICS AND SFC OBS INDICATE A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ACRS GRTLKS. AS INVERSION STRENGTHENS BTWN 4-6 KFT
TDY/TON...EXPECT LLVL MSTR TO RMN IN PLACE...SO DESPITE WEAK RIDGING
OVER FA THIS PM/NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH MSTLY CLDY SKIES. WITH LITTLE
OR NO SUN TDY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE IN MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

MORE CLOUDS ON THURS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHWRS DURING
PM (ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN NYS) WITH APRCH OF FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM ERN
GRTLKS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALG THE BOUNDARY IN OHIO
VLY LATER THURS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG SHRTWV.
LOW EXPECTED TO THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NYS AND WRN NEW ENG THURS
NITE/FRI...BRINGING RAIN TO NORTH COUNTRY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2
INCHES PSBL...DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF SFC LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED PORTION OF FCST ATTM. LINGERING SHWRS
FRI NITE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE FA ON SATURDAY...WITH DRIER AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR SOME CLRNG.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APRCHS FROM GRTLKS/OH VLY.
MEANWHILE...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST FROM NORTHERN
MIDWEST DURING FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WX OVER NORTH
COUNTRY UNSETTLED WITH CLDS AND A CHC OF SHWRS...ALG WITH TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC VFR/MVFR CONDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS FA OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24
HOURS AS BROAD SYNOPTIC INVERSION NEAR THE 900-850 HPA LVL PERSISTS
ACROSS AREA...AND TRAPS ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE. DRY AIR AT MID
AND UPPER LEVELS ALONG WITH LACK OF ANY REAL FORCING SHOULD INHIBIT
ANY PCPN...AND WILL MAINTAIN PRIOR FCSTS IDEA OF A DRY PERIOD AREA
WIDE. POST-OCCLUSION SFC WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER FROM SSW TO W BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS IN BROADER VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...JMG









FXUS61 KBTV 180127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
927 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN SHIELD ASSOC WITH STG WARM/MIST ADVECTION ON 60 KTS 8H
JET MVG ACRS FA ATTM WITH WTR VPR AND RDR SHWG DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH
STG S/W ALRDY MVG INTO NEIGHBORING UPSTREAM ZONES. THEREFORE...
STEADY RAIN TAPERING TO SCT -SHRA OVRNGT. ALSO...CRNT TMPS AOB
FCST VALUES...THUS HV LWRD MINS A CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME DECOUPLING NR THE SFC WITH 50 KTS ARD 2-3K WL ALLOW FOR SOME
LLWS THRU 06Z THEN LLVL JET CORE SHLD LIFT NE OF FA. PRETTY MUCH
VFR/MVFR WITH STEADY RAIN AND STG GRADIENT BUT UPSTREAM CONDS SHW
LWRG CIGS TO MVFR WITH SCT -SHRA OVRNGT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.  ONLY HINDRANCE TO RAIN ACROSS ALL AREAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...THUS IT IS TAKING A COUPLE EXTRA HOURS TO SATURATE THE AIR
MASS. NEVERTHELESS...THE SATURATION PROCESS WILL TAKE PLACE ALL
AREAS AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT.  DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT DRYING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO CAN SEE SKIES
ONLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY AND WARMER THERMAL AXIS AT 850 MB NOSES UP INTO OUR
REGION.  WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...CAN SEE READINGS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S ON THURSDAY.  IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION IS MORE CLOSELY TIED TO
THE 850 MB FRONT...WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PUSH JUST EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  THUS DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE DAY WEARS ON
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CALL AT THIS TIME.  COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY PROGRESSIVE MED TO LONG TERM PATTERN EXPECTED ACRS CONUS WITH
MEAN MID/UPPER LVL TROF ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WL KEEP
OUR WX PATTERN VERY CHANGEABLE EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS WITH S/W ENERGY
FOLLOWED BY SFC HIGH PRES. THE DETAILS OF EACH SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
TIMING/STRENGTH/AMPLIFICATION WL BECMG INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT
TOWARD DAYS 6 AND 7.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BEST LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WL STAY ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY WELL
SOUTH OF OUR FA. WL KEEP SATURDAY DRY...BUT COOL NORTHERLY FLW AND
PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -4C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 7C ONLY SUPPORT
HIGHS MID/UPPER 40S MTNS TO LOWER 50S CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF LOW MOISTURE AND WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SFC
CYCLOGENESIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN THIS SYSTEM WL PASS
NORTH AND WEST OF FA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SYSTEM WL HAVE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH FAVORABLE ULVL DYNAMICS TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. IN
ADDITION...STRONG 5H PVA AND RRQ OF 25H JET WL ENHANCE MID LVL LIFT
AND 850-700MB FGEN FORCING. THIS IS DEPICTED NICELY IN THE 7H OMEGA
FIELDS AND 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS IN THE GFS.
GIVEN...INCREASE CLOUDS/PRECIP FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA...EXPECT
TEMPS VERY SIMILAR ON SUNDAY TO TODAY'S TEMPS ACRS OUR CWA.
OTHERWISE...AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF AMPLIFICATION BEHIND SYSTEM
IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AND WL HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON DEGREE OF CAA
AND PLACEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE. WL KEEP FCST UNSETTLED WITH
TROF DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED 5H VORTS MOVING THRU AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK ZNS. IN
ADDITION...LLVL THICKNESS VALUES AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW
CRITERIA VALUES FOR SOME SNOW FLAKES ACRS THE MTN ZNS...ESPECIALLY
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WL MENTION TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BLW
NORMAL BASED ON LATEST 85H AND 925MB TEMPS.

AVIATION...
SHORT TERM AVIATION FCST PROBLEM WL BE TIMING OF MODERATE RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED LWRING OF CIGS FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. CRNT OBS/RADAR SHOW LEADING EDGE OF RAIN NOW INTO THE CPV
AND SOUTHERN VT WITH MODERATE RAIN AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT THIS RAIN TO
CONTINUE FOR 6 TO 9 HRS THIS EVENING...BEFORE BEST LLVL FGEN FORCING
AND OMEGA LIFTS NE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WL TAPER RAIN TO
SHOWERS AFT 06Z IN MSS/SLK AND BY 09Z AT BTV/MPV. ALSO...FEEL STRONG
PRES GRADIENT WL PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACRS TAF SITES
TONIGHT...WITH SOME GRADUAL LIFTING OF CIGS BY 12Z WEDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








FXUS61 KBTV 171806
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.  ONLY HINDRANCE TO RAIN ACROSS ALL AREAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...THUS IT IS TAKING A COUPLE EXTRA HOURS TO SATURATE THE AIR
MASS. NEVERTHELESS...THE SATURATION PROCESS WILL TAKE PLACE ALL
AREAS AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT.  DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT DRYING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO CAN SEE SKIES
ONLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY AND WARMER THERMAL AXIS AT 850 MB NOSES UP INTO OUR
REGION.  WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...CAN SEE READINGS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S ON THURSDAY.  IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION IS MORE CLOSELY TIED TO
THE 850 MB FRONT...WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PUSH JUST EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  THUS DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE DAY WEARS ON
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CALL AT THIS TIME.  COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY PROGRESSIVE MED TO LONG TERM PATTERN EXPECTED ACRS CONUS WITH
MEAN MID/UPPER LVL TROF ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WL KEEP
OUR WX PATTERN VERY CHANGEABLE EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS WITH S/W ENERGY
FOLLOWED BY SFC HIGH PRES. THE DETAILS OF EACH SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
TIMING/STRENGTH/AMPLIFICATION WL BECMG INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT
TOWARD DAYS 6 AND 7.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BEST LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WL STAY ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY WELL
SOUTH OF OUR FA. WL KEEP SATURDAY DRY...BUT COOL NORTHERLY FLW AND
PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -4C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 7C ONLY SUPPORT
HIGHS MID/UPPER 40S MTNS TO LOWER 50S CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF LOW MOISTURE AND WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SFC
CYCLOGENESIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN THIS SYSTEM WL PASS
NORTH AND WEST OF FA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SYSTEM WL HAVE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH FAVORABLE ULVL DYNAMICS TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. IN
ADDITION...STRONG 5H PVA AND RRQ OF 25H JET WL ENHANCE MID LVL LIFT
AND 850-700MB FGEN FORCING. THIS IS DEPICTED NICELY IN THE 7H OMEGA
FIELDS AND 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS IN THE GFS.
GIVEN...INCREASE CLOUDS/PRECIP FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA...EXPECT
TEMPS VERY SIMILAR ON SUNDAY TO TODAY'S TEMPS ACRS OUR CWA.
OTHERWISE...AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF AMPLIFICATION BEHIND SYSTEM
IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AND WL HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON DEGREE OF CAA
AND PLACEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE. WL KEEP FCST UNSETTLED WITH
TROF DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED 5H VORTS MOVING THRU AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK ZNS. IN
ADDITION...LLVL THICKNESS VALUES AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW
CRITERIA VALUES FOR SOME SNOW FLAKES ACRS THE MTN ZNS...ESPECIALLY
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WL MENTION TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BLW
NORMAL BASED ON LATEST 85H AND 925MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM AVIATION FCST PROBLEM WL BE TIMING OF MODERATE RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED LWRING OF CIGS FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. CRNT OBS/RADAR SHOW LEADING EDGE OF RAIN NOW INTO THE CPV
AND SOUTHERN VT WITH MODERATE RAIN AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT THIS RAIN TO
CONTINUE FOR 6 TO 9 HRS THIS EVENING...BEFORE BEST LLVL FGEN FORCING
AND OMEGA LIFTS NE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WL TAPER RAIN TO
SHOWERS AFT 06Z IN MSS/SLK AND BY 09Z AT BTV/MPV. ALSO...FEEL STRONG
PRES GRADIENT WL PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACRS TAF SITES
TONIGHT...WITH SOME GRADUAL LIFTING OF CIGS BY 12Z WEDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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