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SKIVT-L  October 2006, Week 3

SKIVT-L October 2006, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 19 Oct 2006 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (491 lines)

Expires:200610192115;;622688
FPUS51 KBTV 190751
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2006


VTZ006-008-016>018-192115-
LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
350 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2006

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 
HIGHS 55 TO 60. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN. PATCHY FOG. LOWS 45 TO 50. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 
MPH...BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 100 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES NEARLY 
STEADY AROUND 50. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 100 
PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE 
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 
30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE 
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS 45 TO 50. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 190818
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
418 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY WEATHER FOCUS OVER SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM AFFECTING REGION LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY...AFTER WHICH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY/SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TRAVERSES REGION ON
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

LATEST SYNOPTIC/SFC MAP INDICATING WIDESPREAD OVC CONDS PERSIST
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING AS AMPLE LL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BENEATH PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LACK OF ANY ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...RATHER UNIFORM TEMPERATURE
REGIME ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE U40S TO M50S.
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM OCCLUDING HUDSON BAY
SFC LOW THROUGH NRN LAKES INTO MISSISSIPI/WRN OHIO VALLEY STATES AND
IS PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

IT IS THIS SFC FRONT THAT WILL PROVIDE INITIAL FORCING FOR RAFL
ACROSS AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST 00Z
OPERATIONAL/SREF DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL CREEP
INTO FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL AS DEEPENING SFC WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG LWR GULF COAST RIDES NE ALONG BNDRY DURING FRIDAY.
SOLNS HAVE SLOWED FRONT/S INITIAL PROGRESS INTO FA...THUS WILL HOLD
OFF ON MENTION OF PCPN ACROSS VT UNTIL AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...
MANY FACTORS...INCLUDING BROAD WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LVL FGEN AND
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINICITY FAVOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO OCCNLY HVY
PCPN TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND ESP DURING
FRIDAY AS WAVE PASSES. THIS APPEARS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE CORRECT IN INDICATING STRONGLY COUPLED FRONTOGENETIC
AND SYOPTIC-SCALE LIFT TO 30 KFT DURING THESE PERIODS. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS AREA BY LATER TODAY ASSOC WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BNDRY...THEN CATEGORICAL AREA WIDE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IN ASSOC W/AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE/FORCING. BNDRY LYR WINDS
TO ALSO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW
PASSES AND STEEPENING LL LAPSE RATES ADVECT INTO REGION UNDER STRONG
CAA REGIME. PARTIAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS SUPPORTS PRIOR FCST OF
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS (ESP
DACKS) AT THE TAIL END OF EVENT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL BNDRY LYR/GROUND TEMPS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ACCUM AT THIS TIME...ESP WITH SHARP DRYING AT
MID LVLS AND GENERAL SUBSATURATION OF PRIME SNOW GROWTH LYR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...ESP
IF SFC SYSTEM DEEPENS MORE RAPIDLY AND IS SLOWER THAN CURRENT SOLNS
SUGGEST.

AFTERWARDS...MAINLY BLUSTERY AND COOL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY TRAVERSES AREA. DRY COLUMNAR
MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF DAY.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THEREAFTER...MAINLY TO SUNDAY PORTION OF FCST
TO BETTER BLEND WITH INHERITED EXTENDED PERIODS. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL SOLNS...INCLUDING THE 00Z EURO RUN NOW SUGGESTING THAT
BROAD WAA PATTERN ASSOC WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM TO NOW POTENTIALLY
AFFECT REGION BY SUNDAY WITH ADDL SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL THUS
ADVERTISE MORE CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A CHC OF RAFL...ESP BY AFTERNOON
HOURS TO ACCT FOR THESE LATEST TRENDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. LATEST AVBL
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CHILLY CONDS EVOLVING
ACROSS AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS
NE CONUS. DESPITE LATEST TREND TO KEEP DEEPER SFC ENERGY WELL
OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD...PROXIMITY OF MID TO UPPER LVL CLOSED
ENERGY ALONG WITH PRONOUNCED CAA/NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHC OF -SHRAS/HIER ELEV -SHRASN ACROSS
MAINLY NRN ZONES DURING TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

SLY TO SWLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AS COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE ERN
PORTION OF LWR MI AT 08Z MOVES EWD TOWARD THE REGION. IN THE LARGER
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REACH
12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-22KTS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTN HRS. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE TAF
SITES...HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN AT 20-21Z AT KMSS AND KSLK...AND AT 22Z
AT KBTV AND KMPV. VSBY WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING AT KSLK AND KMPV...WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS
AND KBTV. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVC THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BINOVC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTN THRU EARLY THIS AFTN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS
THROUGH 20Z...WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FT ELSEWHERE THROUGH
20Z OBSCURING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...CEILINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOWER WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AND SATURATION
OF LOWER LEVELS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE QPF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD
1 TO 2 INCH RAFL EVENT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES
ACROSS REGION OVER COURSE OF NEXT 42 HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HPC QPF FCSTS. HIGHEST TOTALS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS ERN/NERN VT
DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS GULF OF ME ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS NEEDED TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS AREA AS GENERAL
HEADWATER GUIDANCE RUNNING FROM 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES IN 12 HR...AND 3
TO 4 INCHES IN 24 HR. NONETHELESS...MODERATE TO SHARP RISES MAY
OCCUR ACROSS SMALLER TRIBUTARIES AND HEADWATER LOCNS DURING FRIDAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING...ESP
ALONG POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CLOGGED BY CURRENT LEAF FALL AND WILL
MONITOR ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...JMG









FXUS61 KBTV 190143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
943 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2006

.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SOME
OF THE ZONES. WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 424 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2006/

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THEN INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NAM/GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING THE PERIOD LEADING TO FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENT FORECAST OF RELATIVELY HEAVY QPF EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AND EVEN A
CHANCE OF HIGHER ELEVATION MIXING OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW FRIDAY EVENING.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TODAY WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG FROM FORMING...BUT IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP...FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH DEW POINTS.

ON THURSDAY...THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORECAST RIGHT ACROSS
OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER BY FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS AND CLOSES...MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG QVECTOR AND MOSITURE CONVERGENCE ALL WORKING TOGETHER TO
BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ALSO...INCREASING LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW AND DEEPENING OF THE COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED AS
COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH (ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM) ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

UPSLOPE COOLING ESPECIALLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LEAD TO THE RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW
BY FRIDAY EVENING. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

PARLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTERESTING AND COMPLEX MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN TO EVOLVE ACRS THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. FCSTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP COLD CORE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TUES/WEDS...BUT BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE ABOUT SFC LOW TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON FA LATE
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. SUNDAY...WEAK SFC RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH S/W ENERGY HELPING TO ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES AND
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WEAK WAA LIFT AND
ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WL HELP TO ENHANCE MOISTURE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA LATE SUNDAY. WL MENTION CHC POPS ACRS SLV
AFT 18Z SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...00Z GFS ENSEMBLE DATA...ALONG WITH OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF THE DGEX/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODEL ARE ALL SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ENSEMBLES DATA
SHOWS 5H HGHTS 4 TO 5 STD BLW NORMAL...ALONG WITH 5 TO 6 STD BLW
NORMAL 85H TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SE CONUS WHERE THE 0C IS ACRS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS DEEP OF A TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS
SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT BTWN AIRMASS AND WARM GULF STREAM. HOWEVER...LATEST
12Z GFS/ENSEMBLES DATA SUPPORTS INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKING ACRS THE
SLV WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z MONDAY ACRS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS VERY ENERGIC SYSTEM WL ONCE AGAIN HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRES WL QUICKLY
DEVELOP AND PRODUCE STRONG LLVL CAA ACRS OUR CWA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUES. THE COMBINATION OF NUMEROUS EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLW
ALOFT...PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL KEEP CWA VERY UNSETTLED FOR TUE THRU WEDS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN -5 AND -7C...ALONG WITH THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUE WELL BLW 540DM WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
HIGHER TRRN. IN ADDITION...WL CUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES FROM HPC/MEX
GUIDANCE BASED ON ENSEMBLE 85H TEMPS AND DEPTH OF COLD CORE LOW ACRS
THE EASTERN CONUS.

AVIATION...
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN WL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/FOG
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIFTING OF CIGS BY 14Z THURS. UPSTREAM SAT
PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH SOME CLRING OVER LAKE ONTARIO. FEEL
THIS CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING OF BL WINDS WL PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IF SOME CLRING DEVELOPS FOG WOULD
QUICKLY DEVELOP...GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.
OTHERWISE...WEAK UPSLOPE FLW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN THE
SFC-850MB SUPPORTS SOME -DZ AT SLK BTWN 07Z-11Z. FEEL EVENTUALLY
DOWNSLOPE FLW FROM DACKS WL DECREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT BTV AND
SKIES SHOULD SCATTER BY 15Z THURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH










FXUS61 KBTV 182024
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
424 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THEN INTO
THE CANADIAN MARTIMES BY SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NAM/GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING THE PERIOD LEADING TO FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENT FORECAST OF RELATIVELY HEAVY QPF EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AND EVEN A
CHANCE OF HIGHER ELEVATION MIXING OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW FRIDAY EVENING.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TODAY WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG FROM FORMING...BUT IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP...FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH DEW POINTS.

ON THURSDAY...THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORECAST RIGHT ACROSS
OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER BY FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS AND CLOSES...MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG QVECTOR AND MOSITURE CONVERGENCE ALL WORKING TOGETHER TO
BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ALSO...INCREASING LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW AND DEEPENING OF THE COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED AS
COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH (ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM) ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

UPSLOPE COOLING ESPECIALLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LEAD TO THE RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW
BY FRIDAY EVENING. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

PARLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTERESTING AND COMPLEX MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN TO EVOLVE ACRS THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. FCSTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP COLD CORE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TUES/WEDS...BUT BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE ABOUT SFC LOW TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON FA LATE
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. SUNDAY...WEAK SFC RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH S/W ENERGY HELPING TO ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES AND
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WEAK WAA LIFT AND
ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WL HELP TO ENHANCE MOISTURE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA LATE SUNDAY. WL MENTION CHC POPS ACRS SLV
AFT 18Z SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...00Z GFS ENSEMBLE DATA...ALONG WITH OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF THE DGEX/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODEL ARE ALL SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ENSEMBLES DATA
SHOWS 5H HGHTS 4 TO 5 STD BLW NORMAL...ALONG WITH 5 TO 6 STD BLW
NORMAL 85H TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SE CONUS WHERE THE 0C IS ACRS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS DEEP OF A TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS
SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT BTWN AIRMASS AND WARM GULF STREAM. HOWEVER...LATEST
12Z GFS/ENSEMBLES DATA SUPPORTS INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKING ACRS THE
SLV WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z MONDAY ACRS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS VERY ENERGIC SYSTEM WL ONCE AGAIN HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRES WL QUICKLY
DEVELOP AND PRODUCE STRONG LLVL CAA ACRS OUR CWA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUES. THE COMBINATION OF NUMEROUS EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLW
ALOFT...PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL KEEP CWA VERY UNSETTLED FOR TUE THRU WEDS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN -5 AND -7C...ALONG WITH THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUE WELL BLW 540DM WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
HIGHER TRRN. IN ADDITION...WL CUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES FROM HPC/MEX
GUIDANCE BASED ON ENSEMBLE 85H TEMPS AND DEPTH OF COLD CORE LOW ACRS
THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN WL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/FOG
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIFTING OF CIGS BY 14Z THURS. UPSTREAM SAT
PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH SOME CLRING OVER LAKE ONTARIO. FEEL
THIS CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING OF BL WINDS WL PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IF SOME CLRING DEVELOPS FOG WOULD
QUICKLY DEVELOP...GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.
OTHERWISE...WEAK UPSLOPE FLW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN THE
SFC-850MB SUPPORTS SOME -DZ AT SLK BTWN 07Z-11Z. FEEL EVENTUALLY
DOWNSLOPE FLW FROM DACKS WL DECREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT BTV AND
SKIES SHOULD SCATTER BY 15Z THURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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May 2008, Week 1
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April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
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March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
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September 2007, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 1
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