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SKIVT-L  October 2006, Week 3

SKIVT-L October 2006, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 21 Oct 2006 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (687 lines)

Expires:200610212115;;671365
FPUS51 KBTV 210745
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-212115-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
345 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2006

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY 
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH 
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 25 TO 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 
MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN 
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 
MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN OR SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

NOAA's NWS will be accepting comments on proposed IWIN replacement pages
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     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 210845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
445 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER WX REGIME TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AFTER
YESTERDAY/S WILD AND RECORD SETTING DAY IN THE BURLINGTON AREA (SEE
CLIMO DISC BELOW).

THIS MORNING/S SYNOPTIC/SFC MAP SHOWING DEEP CYCLONE WHICH BROUGHT
ALL OF THE WIND/RAIN/SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY YESTERDAY CONTINUES
TO LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.
MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE SFC TO MID LVL RIDGING IS QUICKLY BUILDING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STATES...AND IT IS THIS LATTER FEATURE WHICH
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TO THE AREA LATER TODAY.

LATEST OPERATIONAL AND SREF SOLNS STILL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TIMING AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF SFC AND MID LVL FEATURES PROGGED
TO AFFECT THE NERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 00Z NAM/WRF/CANADIAN
GEM A TAD SLOWER WITH PATTERN...WHILE SREF/GFS SOMEWHAT QUICKER.

FOR TODAY/S WEATHER...GENERALLY A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER TODAY...ESP VALLEY LOCALES
AS LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE THINS UNDER CONTINUED COLUMNAR DRYING.
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS COOLER MOS MEMBERS IN REGARDS TO MAX TEMPS DUE
TO RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST BNDRY LYR WINDS TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER COURSE OF DAY. THEN GENERALLY CLR TO PC
OVERNIGHT UNDER LIGHT WIND REGIME.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...NEXT SYSTEM IN PIPELINE PUSHES
QUICKLY EASTWARD...AFFECTING REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OCCLUDING PARENT LOW ACROSS ERN LAKES
TO SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO NEW CYCLOGENESIS INVOF OF THE BENCHMARK SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR AND BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGHING SLOWLY PUSH
INTO REGION. 850-700 HPA AND 1000-850 HPA PARTIAL THICKNESS
ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THREAT OF MIXED PCPN WOULD OCCUR PRIMARILY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY...WITH THE VALLEY FLOORS
REMAINING GENERALLY IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. MIN TEMPS IN GENERAL
RANGING THROUGHOUT THE 30S.

AFTERWARDS...A GENERAL UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS COMBINATION OF DEEPENING OFFSHORE SFC LOW PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAIN DOMINANT WX INFLUENCES ACROSS NRN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL MAINTAIN PRIOR FCSTS IDEA OF VALLEY -SHRAS/MRN
-SHRASNS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MORE MIXED P-TYPE POSSBL
MONDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS AS MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS DROP INTO THE -2 TO -4C
RANGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST ATTM. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH
OF THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME AS FA REMAINS UNDER BROAD CAA AND NW SFC
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIME TO SET
UP...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ALONG WITH SCT -SHRASN NORTH...AND
GENERALLY PC AND SOMEWHAT MILDER SOUTH...ESP LWR CT RVR VALLEY
LOCNS. OVERALL SOUNDING PROFILES ADVERTISE FAIRLY STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES AND ADEQUATE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE NORTH DURING THE TUE-THU
TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD ARGUE AT LEAST FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WRN FACING MTN
SLOPES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND SOMEWHAT MIDLER TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

OVERCAST CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS RANGING
FROM 2500-3500 FEET IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS...DOWN TO
1500FT IN CENTRAL/NERN VT AND ALSO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. VSBY
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
CLOUD CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING AS LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE WAKE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE DIMINISHES LATE THIS MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON
HRS...EXPECT SKIES TO GENERALLY REMAIN BKN AS SHALLOW INSTABILITY
ALLOWS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
GUSTS 20-25KTS THROUGH THE MID DAY HRS. WINDS WILL LESSEN
CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH PBL STABILIZATION AND WITH
DIMINISHING SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT THAT BROUGHT AN AVG 1-3" OF RAFL
TO AREA OVER PAST 24 HOURS HAS ENDED...WITH RUNOFF CONCERNS STEADILY
DECREASING. THUS THE PRIMARY FLOOD THREAT HAS ENDED. A FEW
MAINSTEM RIVERS...SUCH AS THE PASSUMPSIC...WINOOSKI...LAMOILLE...AND
MISSISQUOI WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH TO NEAR BANKFULL THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH ONLY NUISANCE TO MINOR LOWLAND AND/OR
FIELD FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
&&

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORDS WERE SET YESTERDAY...INCLUDING DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL AT KBTV OF 1.96/2.0 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. ALSO OF
NOTE...IF KBTV DOES NOT FALL TO 32F BY MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME
TONIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE LATEST THAT KBTV HAS NOT REACHED THE 32F
MARK IN THE PAST 30 YRS. THE LATEST 32F OCCURRENCE ON RECORD IS
11/1/1920.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...JMG/BANACOS
CLIMATE...JMG/BANACOS









FXUS61 KBTV 210214
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT OUT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVERS SHOWING SHARP RISES TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF TODAYS
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE MISSISQUOI RIVER FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OVERNIGHT AT NORTH TROY VERMONT...AND ALSO AT EAST
BERKSHIRE VERMONT. OTHER RIVERS SHOWING SHARP RISES TONIGHT ARE
THE LAMOILLE RIVER AT JOHNSON VERMONT...BUT THIS RIVER IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT. THE EAST BRANCH OF THE PASSUMPSIC
RIVER AT EAST HAVEN VERMONT IS ALSO SHOWING A SHARP RISE TONIGHT
AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVERNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 536 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
VERY INTERESTING WX EVENING ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK WITH SOME THUNDER SNOW BEING REPORTED ACRS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LIFT/DYNAMICS OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS AFTN. FIRST...LATEST OBS...WEB CAM
PIC...AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATES RAIN HAS CHANGED TO ALL SNOW
ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES BEING REPORTED FROM NEAR
KART TO WANAKENA TO PAUL SMITHS COLLEGE. OTHERWISE...LATEST OBS HERE
AT BTV SHOW RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW WITH VIS NEAR 1SM AND SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ON OUR SKYLIGHT. EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TO CONT TO
TRACK EAST AND SOUTH ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VT
ZNS...AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. HOWEVER...BACK
EDGE OF SNOW IS NOW ENTERING SLV AND SHOULD CONT TO TRACK ACRS THE
NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW ENDING BY 8PM AT SLK AND 10
PM AT BTV.

NAM 12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG LIFT HELPING TO COOL THE
COLUMN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACRS THE CPV...BUT
AS PRECIP AND LIFT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM SOME AND PRECIP TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
SNOW...DEPENDING UPON ELEVATION. FEEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL BE A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES AWAY FROM THE WARMER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG A ST ALBANS TO RICHMOND LINE. THE NORTHERN
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WL BE IN COMMA HEAD PRECIP
BAND THE LONGEST TONIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED THEIR
ACCUMULATIONS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 333 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND THE AREA
THRU TOMORROW MORNING...AND AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RAIN CHANGE OVER TO
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...RIGHT NOW IN N NY. AFTER BREAK IN PRECIP
FROM THIS MORNING...SECOND BATCH OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY MVG THRU THE
AREA AS SFC LOW PUSHES THRU CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. BACK EGDE OF PRECIP
SEEN OVER NEW YORK. STRONG DYNAMICS FUELING SNOWFALL FOR AREA AND
WILL TRANSITION OVER TO THE WESTERN SLOPES AND N VT...WHERE WSWBTV
IN EFFECT FOR LATER TDY. AREAS AROUND THE CWA HAVE SEEN 1-2" OF
RAINFALL SO FAR...WITH SOME AREAS GETTING ANOTHER INCH OR SO BFR
TAPERING OFF LATER TNGT. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION BLW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON RIVERS. BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAPERING DOWN TO RW/SW...WITH NE VT SEEING LAST BIT EARLY
SATURDAY MORN. SOME CLD COVER WILL REMAIN DURING THE MORNING HRS
SATURDAY AS REMNANTS CLR REGION...W/ REST OF DAY TURNING OUT FAIRLY
NICE AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA. RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST OFF THE
COAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WHICH SETS UP THE REGION FOR NEXT
SYSTEM...WHICH HITS WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. SOUTH
FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL HAVE PRECIP START AS -RW IN ALL AREAS BFR
CHANGING TO/MIXING WITH -SW FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY. MDLS SHOW PRECIP DECREASE DURING
THIS TIME...SO WILL START POPS AS CHANCE GOING TO LIKELY LATE
SUNDAY...TAPERING TO CHANCE ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXTENDED FCST PACKAGE WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NE
CONUS BY MONDAY. ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ALONG WITH THE LATEST
06Z DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION OF 2 TO 4 STD BLW
NORMAL HGHTS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED COOL POOL ALOFT.
THIS PROLONGED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL EVENTUALLY ADVECT NORTHERN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK/VERMONT BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUES...WHICH IS DISPLAYED NICELY IN THE 850-700MB RH FIELDS
FROM THE 00Z/06Z GFS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL 20 TO 30 KNTS UPSLOPE FLW FROM A NW DIRECTION AND EMBEDDED
VORTS WL KEEP CLOUDS AND PRECIP PERSISTING ACRS OUR FA. INTERESTING
06Z GFS PROFILE AT JAY PEAK WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL UVV'S
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLW...ALONG WITH DEEP (SFC-700MB) RH
FIELDS...AND GOOD MOISTURE/LIFT IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT OUR THINKING FROM YESTERDAY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PROLONGED UPSLOPE EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUNDING
PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW ABOVE 1500FT...ESPECIALLY WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN -5 AND -7C AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 1300M
AND 850-700MB VALUES BLW 1540M THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT BL WARMING TO CHANGE AND SOLID PRECIP OVER TO
RAIN...ESPECIALLY FROM SOLAR HEATING ACRS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ON
TUES. GIVEN...STRONG CONFIDENCE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACRS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUES...AND TRY TO
SHOW A DIURNAL VARIATION IN PRECIP TYPE ACRS THE VALLEYS ON
MONDAY/TUES AFTN. BY LATE WEDS...FLW BCMGS ZONAL WITH BEST MOISTURE
LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOME DRYING DEVELOPING. WL
MENTION CHC POPS IN MTNS ZNS WEDS NIGHT AND KEEP THURS DRY ATTM AS
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS. NEXT SYSTEM WL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY
NEXT FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP BY LATE FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS
RETURN TO NORMAL.

AVIATION...
VERY BUSY DAY WITH EXTREMELY INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING AVIATION
FCST FOR THE NEXT 0 TO 12 HRS. FIRST...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES DEEPENING
LOW PRES (991MB) NEAR NORTH ADAM MA WITH 3HR PRES FALLS SUGGESTING A
TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. VIS/IR SAT PIC SHOWS
STRONG CONVECTIVE NATURE TO CLOUD STRUCTURE WITH VERY STRONG LIFT
PER LATEST CLOUD ENHANCEMENTS. THIS STRONG UVV'S WL BE ACRS SLK BTWN
19Z-22Z...WHICH SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH VIS BLW 1/2SM AND CIGS BLW OVC005.
UPSTREAM OBS AND WEB CAMS SUPPORT THIS THINKING...ALONG WITH LATEST
SOUNDING DATA OFF THE WRF. OTHERWISE...EXTREME 850-700MB FGEN
FORCING...ALONG WITH STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE
850MB MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WL ENHANCE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP ACRS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST RAIN TRENDS
SHOW BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ACRS WESTERN NY/CENTRAL PA ATTM AND EXPECT
IT TO LIFT QUICKLY NE ACRS OUR CWA THIS EVENING AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO FA. USING PROGGED LIFT AND MOISTURE PROFILES AND LATEST
RADAR TRENDS WL MENTION RA/+RA AT BTV BTWN 18Z-02Z WITH SOME MIX
WITH SNOW BTWN 22-02Z. NORTHERLY FLW WL KEEP CIGS AT BTV AT OR BLW
IFR THRU 06Z. AT MPV WL MENTION RA/+RA THRU 00Z WITH SOME MIX RA/SN
BEFORE THE PRECIP QUICKLY TAPERS OFF TO DRIZZLE BY 03Z. SOUNDINGS
TONIGHT...SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BLW TEMP INVERSION BTWN
04-08Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DRIZZLE OR SNOW DRIZZLE AT SLK.
OTHERWISE...LLVL UPSLOPE FLW WL PERSIST THRU 12Z SAT...WITH A SLOW
CLRING TREND EXPECTED.

HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. 7 AM COOP REPORTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 TO
1 INCH OF RAIN FELL OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO FAR TODAY
RAINFALL HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT AS COMMA
HEAD MOVES EAST NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL BE
INUNDATED WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON MISSISSQUOI RIVER AT EAST BERKSHIRE AND NORTH TROY.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AUSABLE RIVER AS CURRENT RFC FORECASTS
THIS GOING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL
DOWNPLAY FLOOD POTENTIAL HERE AS CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE RAIN
CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHICH
SHOULD DECREASE FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FOR VTZ002>004-006>008-016 UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ003-006-016-017 UNTIL 5 AM
     SATURDAY.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
HYDROLOGY...WGH










FXUS61 KBTV 202150
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
536 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
VERY INTERESTING WX EVENING ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK WITH SOME THUNDER SNOW BEING REPORTED ACRS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LIFT/DYNAMICS OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS AFTN. FIRST...LATEST OBS...WEB CAM
PIC...AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATES RAIN HAS CHANGED TO ALL SNOW
ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES BEING REPORTED FROM NEAR
KART TO WANAKENA TO PAUL SMITHS COLLEGE. OTHERWISE...LATEST OBS HERE
AT BTV SHOW RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW WITH VIS NEAR 1SM AND SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ON OUR SKYLIGHT. EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TO CONT TO
TRACK EAST AND SOUTH ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VT
ZNS...AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. HOWEVER...BACK
EDGE OF SNOW IS NOW ENTERING SLV AND SHOULD CONT TO TRACK ACRS THE
NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW ENDING BY 8PM AT SLK AND 10
PM AT BTV.

NAM 12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG LIFT HELPING TO COOL THE
COLUMN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACRS THE CPV...BUT
AS PRECIP AND LIFT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM SOME AND PRECIP TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
SNOW...DEPENDING UPON ELEVATION. FEEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL BE A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES AWAY FROM THE WARMER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG A ST ALBANS TO RICHMOND LINE. THE NORTHERN
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WL BE IN COMMA HEAD PRECIP
BAND THE LONGEST TONIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED THEIR
ACCUMULATIONS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 333 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND THE AREA
THRU TOMORROW MORNING...AND AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RAIN CHANGE OVER TO
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...RIGHT NOW IN N NY. AFTER BREAK IN PRECIP
FROM THIS MORNING...SECOND BATCH OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY MVG THRU THE
AREA AS SFC LOW PUSHES THRU CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. BACK EGDE OF PRECIP
SEEN OVER NEW YORK. STRONG DYNAMICS FUELING SNOWFALL FOR AREA AND
WILL TRANSITION OVER TO THE WESTERN SLOPES AND N VT...WHERE WSWBTV
IN EFFECT FOR LATER TDY. AREAS AROUND THE CWA HAVE SEEN 1-2" OF
RAINFALL SO FAR...WITH SOME AREAS GETTING ANOTHER INCH OR SO BFR
TAPERING OFF LATER TNGT. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION BLW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON RIVERS. BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAPERING DOWN TO RW/SW...WITH NE VT SEEING LAST BIT EARLY
SATURDAY MORN. SOME CLD COVER WILL REMAIN DURING THE MORNING HRS
SATURDAY AS REMNANTS CLR REGION...W/ REST OF DAY TURNING OUT FAIRLY
NICE AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA. RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST OFF THE
COAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WHICH SETS UP THE REGION FOR NEXT
SYSTEM...WHICH HITS WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. SOUTH
FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL HAVE PRECIP START AS -RW IN ALL AREAS BFR
CHANGING TO/MIXING WITH -SW FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY. MDLS SHOW PRECIP DECREASE DURING
THIS TIME...SO WILL START POPS AS CHANCE GOING TO LIKELY LATE
SUNDAY...TAPERING TO CHANCE ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXTENDED FCST PACKAGE WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NE
CONUS BY MONDAY. ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ALONG WITH THE LATEST
06Z DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION OF 2 TO 4 STD BLW
NORMAL HGHTS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED COOL POOL ALOFT.
THIS PROLONGED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL EVENTUALLY ADVECT NORTHERN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK/VERMONT BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUES...WHICH IS DISPLAYED NICELY IN THE 850-700MB RH FIELDS
FROM THE 00Z/06Z GFS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL 20 TO 30 KNTS UPSLOPE FLW FROM A NW DIRECTION AND EMBEDDED
VORTS WL KEEP CLOUDS AND PRECIP PERSISTING ACRS OUR FA. INTERESTING
06Z GFS PROFILE AT JAY PEAK WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL UVV'S
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLW...ALONG WITH DEEP (SFC-700MB) RH
FIELDS...AND GOOD MOISTURE/LIFT IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT OUR THINKING FROM YESTERDAY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PROLONGED UPSLOPE EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUNDING
PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW ABOVE 1500FT...ESPECIALLY WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN -5 AND -7C AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 1300M
AND 850-700MB VALUES BLW 1540M THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT BL WARMING TO CHANGE AND SOLID PRECIP OVER TO
RAIN...ESPECIALLY FROM SOLAR HEATING ACRS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ON
TUES. GIVEN...STRONG CONFIDENCE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACRS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUES...AND TRY TO
SHOW A DIURNAL VARIATION IN PRECIP TYPE ACRS THE VALLEYS ON
MONDAY/TUES AFTN. BY LATE WEDS...FLW BCMGS ZONAL WITH BEST MOISTURE
LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOME DRYING DEVELOPING. WL
MENTION CHC POPS IN MTNS ZNS WEDS NIGHT AND KEEP THURS DRY ATTM AS
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS. NEXT SYSTEM WL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY
NEXT FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP BY LATE FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS
RETURN TO NORMAL.

AVIATION...
VERY BUSY DAY WITH EXTREMELY INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING AVIATION
FCST FOR THE NEXT 0 TO 12 HRS. FIRST...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES DEEPENING
LOW PRES (991MB) NEAR NORTH ADAM MA WITH 3HR PRES FALLS SUGGESTING A
TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. VIS/IR SAT PIC SHOWS
STRONG CONVECTIVE NATURE TO CLOUD STRUCTURE WITH VERY STRONG LIFT
PER LATEST CLOUD ENHANCEMENTS. THIS STRONG UVV'S WL BE ACRS SLK BTWN
19Z-22Z...WHICH SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH VIS BLW 1/2SM AND CIGS BLW OVC005.
UPSTREAM OBS AND WEB CAMS SUPPORT THIS THINKING...ALONG WITH LATEST
SOUNDING DATA OFF THE WRF. OTHERWISE...EXTREME 850-700MB FGEN
FORCING...ALONG WITH STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE
850MB MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WL ENHANCE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP ACRS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST RAIN TRENDS
SHOW BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ACRS WESTERN NY/CENTRAL PA ATTM AND EXPECT
IT TO LIFT QUICKLY NE ACRS OUR CWA THIS EVENING AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO FA. USING PROGGED LIFT AND MOISTURE PROFILES AND LATEST
RADAR TRENDS WL MENTION RA/+RA AT BTV BTWN 18Z-02Z WITH SOME MIX
WITH SNOW BTWN 22-02Z. NORTHERLY FLW WL KEEP CIGS AT BTV AT OR BLW
IFR THRU 06Z. AT MPV WL MENTION RA/+RA THRU 00Z WITH SOME MIX RA/SN
BEFORE THE PRECIP QUICKLY TAPERS OFF TO DRIZZLE BY 03Z. SOUNDINGS
TONIGHT...SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BLW TEMP INVERSION BTWN
04-08Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DRIZZLE OR SNOW DRIZZLE AT SLK.
OTHERWISE...LLVL UPSLOPE FLW WL PERSIST THRU 12Z SAT...WITH A SLOW
CLRING TREND EXPECTED.

HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. 7 AM COOP REPORTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 TO
1 INCH OF RAIN FELL OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO FAR TODAY
RAINFALL HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT AS COMMA
HEAD MOVES EAST NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL BE
INUNDATED WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON MISSISSQUOI RIVER AT EAST BERKSHIRE AND NORTH TROY.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AUSABLE RIVER AS CURRENT RFC FORECASTS
THIS GOING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL
DOWNPLAY FLOOD POTENTIAL HERE AS CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE RAIN
CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHICH
SHOULD DECREASE FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FOR VTZ002>004-006>008-016 UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ003-006-016-017 UNTIL 5 AM
     SATURDAY.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ029>031-034 UNTIL 2 AM SATURDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TABER









FXUS61 KBTV 201933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND THE AREA
THRU TOMORROW MORNING...AND AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RAIN CHANGE OVER TO
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...RIGHT NOW IN N NY. AFTER BREAK IN PRECIP
FROM THIS MORNING...SECOND BATCH OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY MVG THRU THE
AREA AS SFC LOW PUSHES THRU CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. BACK EGDE OF PRECIP
SEEN OVER NEW YORK. STRONG DYNAMICS FUELING SNOWFALL FOR AREA AND
WILL TRANSITION OVER TO THE WESTERN SLOPES AND N VT...WHERE WSWBTV
IN EFFECT FOR LATER TDY. AREAS AROUND THE CWA HAVE SEEN 1-2" OF
RAINFALL SO FAR...WITH SOME AREAS GETTING ANOTHER INCH OR SO BFR
TAPERING OFF LATER TNGT. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION BLW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON RIVERS. BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAPERING DOWN TO RW/SW...WITH NE VT SEEING LAST BIT EARLY
SATURDAY MORN. SOME CLD COVER WILL REMAIN DURING THE MORNING HRS
SATURDAY AS REMNANTS CLR REGION...W/ REST OF DAY TURNING OUT FAIRLY
NICE AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA. RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST OFF THE
COAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WHICH SETS UP THE REGION FOR NEXT
SYSTEM...WHICH HITS WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. SOUTH
FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL HAVE PRECIP START AS -RW IN ALL AREAS BFR
CHANGING TO/MIXING WITH -SW FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY. MDLS SHOW PRECIP DECREASE DURING
THIS TIME...SO WILL START POPS AS CHANCE GOING TO LIKELY LATE
SUNDAY...TAPERING TO CHANCE ON MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXTENDED FCST PACKAGE WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NE
CONUS BY MONDAY. ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ALONG WITH THE LATEST
06Z DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION OF 2 TO 4 STD BLW
NORMAL HGHTS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED COOL POOL ALOFT.
THIS PROLONGED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL EVENTUALLY ADVECT NORTHERN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK/VERMONT BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUES...WHICH IS DISPLAYED NICELY IN THE 850-700MB RH FIELDS
FROM THE 00Z/06Z GFS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL 20 TO 30 KNTS UPSLOPE FLW FROM A NW DIRECTION AND EMBEDDED
VORTS WL KEEP CLOUDS AND PRECIP PERSISTING ACRS OUR FA. INTERESTING
06Z GFS PROFILE AT JAY PEAK WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL UVV'S
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLW...ALONG WITH DEEP (SFC-700MB) RH
FIELDS...AND GOOD MOISTURE/LIFT IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT OUR THINKING FROM YESTERDAY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PROLONGED UPSLOPE EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUNDING
PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW ABOVE 1500FT...ESPECIALLY WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN -5 AND -7C AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 1300M
AND 850-700MB VALUES BLW 1540M THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT BL WARMING TO CHANGE AND SOLID PRECIP OVER TO
RAIN...ESPECIALLY FROM SOLAR HEATING ACRS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ON
TUES. GIVEN...STRONG CONFIDENCE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACRS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUES...AND TRY TO
SHOW A DIURNAL VARIATION IN PRECIP TYPE ACRS THE VALLEYS ON
MONDAY/TUES AFTN. BY LATE WEDS...FLW BCMGS ZONAL WITH BEST MOISTURE
LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOME DRYING DEVELOPING. WL
MENTION CHC POPS IN MTNS ZNS WEDS NIGHT AND KEEP THURS DRY ATTM AS
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS. NEXT SYSTEM WL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY
NEXT FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP BY LATE FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS
RETURN TO NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...
VERY BUSY DAY WITH EXTREMELY INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING AVIATION
FCST FOR THE NEXT 0 TO 12 HRS. FIRST...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES DEEPENING
LOW PRES (991MB) NEAR NORTH ADAM MA WITH 3HR PRES FALLS SUGGESTING A
TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. VIS/IR SAT PIC SHOWS
STRONG CONVECTIVE NATURE TO CLOUD STRUCTURE WITH VERY STRONG LIFT
PER LATEST CLOUD ENHANCEMENTS. THIS STRONG UVV'S WL BE ACRS SLK BTWN
19Z-22Z...WHICH SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH VIS BLW 1/2SM AND CIGS BLW OVC005.
UPSTREAM OBS AND WEB CAMS SUPPORT THIS THINKING...ALONG WITH LATEST
SOUNDING DATA OFF THE WRF. OTHERWISE...EXTREME 850-700MB FGEN
FORCING...ALONG WITH STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE
850MB MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WL ENHANCE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP ACRS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST RAIN TRENDS
SHOW BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ACRS WESTERN NY/CENTRAL PA ATTM AND EXPECT
IT TO LIFT QUICKLY NE ACRS OUR CWA THIS EVENING AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO FA. USING PROGGED LIFT AND MOISTURE PROFILES AND LATEST
RADAR TRENDS WL MENTION RA/+RA AT BTV BTWN 18Z-02Z WITH SOME MIX
WITH SNOW BTWN 22-02Z. NORTHERLY FLW WL KEEP CIGS AT BTV AT OR BLW
IFR THRU 06Z. AT MPV WL MENTION RA/+RA THRU 00Z WITH SOME MIX RA/SN
BEFORE THE PRECIP QUICKLY TAPERS OFF TO DRIZZLE BY 03Z. SOUNDINGS
TONIGHT...SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BLW TEMP INVERSION BTWN
04-08Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DRIZZLE OR SNOW DRIZZLE AT SLK.
OTHERWISE...LLVL UPSLOPE FLW WL PERSIST THRU 12Z SAT...WITH A SLOW
CLRING TREND EXPECTED.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. 7 AM COOP REPORTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 TO
1 INCH OF RAIN FELL OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO FAR TODAY
RAINFALL HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT AS COMMA
HEAD MOVES EAST NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL BE
INUNDATED WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON MISSISSQUOI RIVER AT EAST BERKSHIRE AND NORTH TROY.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AUSABLE RIVER AS CURRENT RFC FORECASTS
THIS GOING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL
DOWNPLAY FLOOD POTENTIAL HERE AS CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE RAIN
CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHICH
SHOULD DECREASE FLOODING CONCERNS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FOR VTZ002>004-006>008-016 UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ003-006-016-017 UNTIL 5 AM
     SATURDAY.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ029>031-034 UNTIL 2 AM SATURDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...LAHIFF








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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September 2011, Week 1
August 2011, Week 5
August 2011, Week 4
August 2011, Week 3
August 2011, Week 2
August 2011, Week 1
July 2011, Week 5
July 2011, Week 4
July 2011, Week 3
July 2011, Week 2
July 2011, Week 1
June 2011, Week 5
June 2011, Week 4
June 2011, Week 3
June 2011, Week 2
June 2011, Week 1
May 2011, Week 5
May 2011, Week 4
May 2011, Week 3
May 2011, Week 2
May 2011, Week 1
April 2011, Week 5
April 2011, Week 4
April 2011, Week 3
April 2011, Week 2
April 2011, Week 1
March 2011, Week 5
March 2011, Week 4
March 2011, Week 3
March 2011, Week 2
March 2011, Week 1
February 2011, Week 4
February 2011, Week 3
February 2011, Week 2
February 2011, Week 1
January 2011, Week 5
January 2011, Week 4
January 2011, Week 3
January 2011, Week 2
January 2011, Week 1
December 2010, Week 5
December 2010, Week 4
December 2010, Week 3
December 2010, Week 2
December 2010, Week 1
November 2010, Week 5
November 2010, Week 4
November 2010, Week 3
November 2010, Week 2
November 2010, Week 1
October 2010, Week 5
October 2010, Week 4
October 2010, Week 3
October 2010, Week 2
October 2010, Week 1
September 2010, Week 5
September 2010, Week 4
September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
September 2010, Week 1
August 2010, Week 5
August 2010, Week 4
August 2010, Week 3
August 2010, Week 2
August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
December 2008, Week 4
December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
December 2006, Week 4
December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
March 2006, Week 5
March 2006, Week 4
March 2006, Week 3
March 2006, Week 2
March 2006, Week 1
February 2006, Week 4
February 2006, Week 3
February 2006, Week 2
February 2006, Week 1
January 2006, Week 5
January 2006, Week 4
January 2006, Week 3
January 2006, Week 2
January 2006, Week 1
December 2005, Week 5
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December 2005, Week 3
December 2005, Week 2
December 2005, Week 1
November 2005, Week 5
November 2005, Week 4
November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
July 2005, Week 5
July 2005, Week 4
July 2005, Week 3
July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
June 2005, Week 5
June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
May 2005, Week 4
May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
April 2005, Week 5
April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
January 2005, Week 2
January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
December 2004, Week 4
December 2004, Week 3
December 2004, Week 2
December 2004, Week 1
November 2004, Week 5
November 2004, Week 4
November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
September 2004, Week 5
September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
July 2004, Week 2
July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
May 2004, Week 4
May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
April 2004, Week 5
April 2004, Week 4
April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
March 2004, Week 5
March 2004, Week 4
March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
March 2004, Week 1
February 2004, Week 5
February 2004, Week 4
February 2004, Week 3
February 2004, Week 2
February 2004, Week 1
January 2004, Week 5
January 2004, Week 4
January 2004, Week 3
January 2004, Week 2
January 2004, Week 1
December 2003, Week 5
December 2003, Week 4
December 2003, Week 3
December 2003, Week 2
December 2003, Week 1
November 2003, Week 5
November 2003, Week 4
November 2003, Week 3
November 2003, Week 2
November 2003, Week 1
October 2003, Week 5
October 2003, Week 4
October 2003, Week 3
October 2003, Week 2
October 2003, Week 1
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May 2003, Week 1
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April 2003, Week 3
April 2003, Week 2
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March 2003, Week 4
March 2003, Week 3
March 2003, Week 2
March 2003, Week 1
February 2003, Week 4
February 2003, Week 3
February 2003, Week 2
February 2003, Week 1
January 2003, Week 5
January 2003, Week 4
January 2003, Week 3
January 2003, Week 2
January 2003, Week 1
December 2002, Week 5
December 2002, Week 4
December 2002, Week 3
December 2002, Week 2
December 2002, Week 1
November 2002, Week 5
November 2002, Week 4
November 2002, Week 3
November 2002, Week 2
November 2002, Week 1
October 2002, Week 5
October 2002, Week 4
October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
September 2002, Week 5
September 2002, Week 4
September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
September 2002, Week 1
August 2002, Week 5
August 2002, Week 4
August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
August 2002, Week 1
July 2002, Week 5
July 2002, Week 4
July 2002, Week 3
July 2002, Week 2
July 2002, Week 1
June 2002, Week 5
June 2002, Week 4
June 2002, Week 3
June 2002, Week 2
June 2002, Week 1
May 2002, Week 5
May 2002, Week 4
May 2002, Week 3
May 2002, Week 2
May 2002, Week 1
April 2002, Week 5
April 2002, Week 4
April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
December 2001, Week 5
December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
December 2001, Week 2
December 2001, Week 1
November 2001, Week 5
November 2001, Week 4
November 2001, Week 3
November 2001, Week 2
November 2001, Week 1
October 2001, Week 5
October 2001, Week 4
October 2001, Week 3
October 2001, Week 2
October 2001, Week 1
September 2001, Week 5
September 2001, Week 4
September 2001, Week 3
September 2001, Week 2
September 2001, Week 1
August 2001, Week 5
August 2001, Week 4
August 2001, Week 3
August 2001, Week 2
August 2001, Week 1
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July 2001, Week 4
July 2001, Week 3
July 2001, Week 2
July 2001, Week 1
June 2001, Week 5
June 2001, Week 4
June 2001, Week 3
June 2001, Week 2
June 2001, Week 1
May 2001, Week 5
May 2001, Week 4
May 2001, Week 3
May 2001, Week 2
May 2001, Week 1
April 2001, Week 5
April 2001, Week 4
April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
February 2001, Week 4
February 2001, Week 3
February 2001, Week 2
February 2001, Week 1
January 2001, Week 5
January 2001, Week 4
January 2001, Week 3
January 2001, Week 2
January 2001, Week 1
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May 2000, Week 1
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March 2000, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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March 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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