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SKIVT-L  October 2006, Week 4

SKIVT-L October 2006, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 28 Oct 2006 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (634 lines)

Expires:200610282115;;839118
FPUS51 KBTV 280735
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006


VTZ006-008-282115-
LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER
335 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006

.TODAY...RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BECOMING WINDY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH ALONG EXPOSED HILLTOPS. CHANCE OF RAIN 100 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO AN INCH. BREEZY WITH LOWS 
IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
50 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

NOAA's NWS will be accepting comments on proposed IWIN replacement pages
until April 30, 2006. Please learn more about the replacement and how to
leave a comment [2]here
   
          
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 280731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL ISSUES TO DEAL WITH ACROSS THE CWA IN THE SHORT TERM. FIRST
MAJOR ONE WILL BE THE WIND PROBLEM WHICH WILL INCR OVER THE CWA
DURING THE DAY TDY. SECOND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA AS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE FA...AND THIRD WILL
BE WIND AND LK EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS THAT FORM ON THE BACKSIDE OF
SYSTEM FOR SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY NGT.

FIRST...WITH THE WIND ISSUE...LATEST MDL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY
STRONG 850 MB SE FLOW OVER THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIR
ELEVATIONS FOR A GD PART OF TDY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
50-70 KTS THRU EARLY EVENING HRS...(SEE BUFKIT WIND PROFILES).
CURRENT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENS STILL LOOKS
GD AND WILL CONTINUE. REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE WINDY/VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS THRU THE DAY AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WORKS OVER AREA.
WINDS WILL DIMINSH LATER TNGT AND SHIFT OVER TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY.
GRADIENT STILL TIGHT...AND EXPECTING WIND GUSTS TO BE NEAR 40MPH
INTO SUN NGT IN SOME AREAS. NEXT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO LOOK AT POTENTIAL
WIND ADVISORY AS SOME LOCAL AREAS MAY REACH UP TO 45-50 MPH GUSTS.

RAINFALL ISSUE...LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SLOWLY WORKING INTO N NY
ATTM AS LARGE SWATH OF RAIN AHEAD OF SFC LOW WILL OVERSPREAD REST OF
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. EARLY PROBLEM HERE WILL BE COLDER
TEMPS IN NC NE VT AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS AROUND REST OF THE CWA.
WITH THESE POTENTIAL TEMPS...AT OR JUST BLW FREEZING...HAVING PRECIP
START OFF AS WINTRY MIX BFR GOING TO ALL RAIN LATER THIS MORNING.
MDL PRECIP ACCUM SUGGESTS AT LEAST 1-2" W/ SOME LOCALLY HIR AMTS.
DRY SLOT OVER THE SE...HOWEVER...WILL ASSIST IN CUTTING PRECIP
TOTALS...AND THUS REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MAJOR FLOODING
CONCERNS.

OTHER ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SAT NGT INTO SUN NIGHT
CONCERING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...MAINLY IN
DACKS...AND S ST LAW CTY. WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WEST WINDS ON
SUNDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW IS POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY INHERITED EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT ZONE...BUT WITH LARGE AREA OF PROBABLE 35-40MPH ALONG
SLOPES NORTH OF RUTLAND..CAN NOT RULE OUT ACCUM SNOWFALL THERE THAT
MAY REACH WATCH CRITERIA. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO FURTHER EVALUATE
AS TO WHETHER TO EXPAND CURRENT WSWBTV. SNOW SPILLAGE INTO LAMOILLE
AND ORLEANS CTYS SNOW BE CONSIDERED AS WELL.

REST OF FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TREND OF DECREASING PRECIP ACTIVITY
SUN INTO MON AS SFC RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE CWA. KEPT TEMPS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO GFS MDL GUIDANCE.

WILL ALSO BE SENDING OUT UPDATED WSW/NPW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLANNING ON NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED ATTM. SFC RIDGE OVER CWA MON
NGT PUSHES S AND E AS FRNTL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LKS
REGION. MDLS STILL HINT AT AFTNOON ARRIVAL FOR PRECIP...WHICH WILL
BE ALL RAIN AS SFC LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA AS IT MVS NORTH INTO
CANADA. SOME LINGERING CLD COVER WED MORN W/ REMNANTS OF FRNT
PUSHING E OF THE CWA. SFC RIDGE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO THE
AREA...WHICH CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WITH CLDS SLOWLY DECREASING ON
WED INTO WED NGT. SFC/UPPER LOW REMAINS STAGNANT OVER
QUEBEC/ONTARIO TOWARDS LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL
TREK SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
CWA AS IT DOES. THIS WILL TRANSITION ANY PRECIP FROM RW TO
SW...ESPECIALLY ON THURS NGT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH CURRENT FORECAST
HAS.
&&

.AVIATION...
POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WRN PA-WRN NY-QUEBEC THRU PERIOD WITH
VRY STG PRS GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT LLVL JET ACRS FA AHD OF OCLD FNT
PROGGED TO MV ACRS FA BTWN 18Z KMSS AND 02Z KLEB. LLVL JET AOA 80
KTS BTWN 3-5K AND AOA 50-55KTS ARD 1.5-2K IN VT BEGINNING ARD 12Z
AHD OF OCLD FNT...THUS LLWS IN TAFS AND WITH SE FLOW ACRS GRN MTNS
XPCT VRY TURBULENT CONDS WITH STG UPSLOPE ALG SE SLOPES AND
DOWNSLOPE ALG WRN SLOPES. IN NRN NY...LLVL JET NOT AS STG FOR LLWS
THRESHOLDS BUT VRY CLOSE AND STG TURBULENCE FOR SAME REASONS.

STEADY PCPN REACHING KMSS-KBTV-KMPV-KLEB CORRIDOR BY 09-10Z AND BCMG
+RA AT TIMES TIL AFT OCLD FNT PASSES LOCALES AS MNTD ABV. MVFR LKLY
WITH PSBL LCLZD IFR CONDS AT TIMES DRG HVST PCPN.

MOD/STG CAA FOLLOWS AFT OCLD FNT WITH STGST SFC WNDS POST FNTL ACRS
KMSS/KSLK FM SW WITH GUSTS AOA 30KTS PSBL. LE -SHSN OFF LAKE ONTARIO
LKLY TO AFFECT ADRNDKS/ST LWRNC VLY AND JUMP ACRS LAKE CHAMPLAIN
INTO NRN GRN MTNS AFT 02-04Z SUN.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR VTZ016>019 FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM
     SATURDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VTZ016 FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR NYZ029-030-034-087 FROM 1 AM SUNDAY
     TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...SLW









FXUS61 KBTV 280221
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1020 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE GOING FORECAST FOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD FOR
PRECIP TIMING...TEMPS...AND PTYPE. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AS OF 02Z AND EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP OVER REST OF VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY MIDNIGHT. FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM
THOUGH IS PTYPE AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT CURRENTLY WITH AOB FREEZING TEMPS.
EXPECT TEMPS TO HOVER AROUND FREEZING IN NEW YORK WHILE
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. THIS
POSES A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE
DECIDED TO MENTION THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS AT
ONSET...WITH PREVAILING PRECIP TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BY MORNING ALL OF FORECAST WITH EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST VT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN NE VT. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
CHANGES MADE BEYOND FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 511 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VERY ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD UPCOMING WITH STRONG UPR TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER WRN TN AT 21Z EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD AND
DEEPEN MARKEDLY AS IT TRACKS TO JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 18Z SAT
/CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWN TO 977MB 18Z SAT IN 12Z GFS/. EWD EXTENDING
OCCLUSION SWEEPS NEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD 1-1.25"
QPF AND ISOLATED AMTS UP TO 2" DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW REGIME WILL YIELD SHADOWING EFFECTS DOWNWIND OF
THE WHITE MTNS OF NH...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY LESS IN THE LWR
PASSUMPSIC VLY TOMORROW. AS PRECIP DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT...A PERIOD
OF RAIN AND SNOW MIXED IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL/NERN VT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 1 INCH OR LESS...AS
WARMING THERMAL PROFILE RAPIDLY TRANSITIONS ALL PRECIP OVER TO RAIN
BY 12Z SAT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF HAZARDOUS WX THRU THE WEEKEND.
FIRST...THE SELY 850MB FLOW UP TO 80KTS SUGGESTS HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA IN THE COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS...WHERE DOWNSLOPE/GAP EFFECTS WILL OVERCOME THE OTHERWISE
STABLE AND VERY MOIST PBL. HAVE MENTIONED WIND GUSTS UP TO 70MPH
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES TOMORROW IN BOTH ZONES AND NPW. IN THE
VLYS...WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TOMORROW.

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS APPEARS SOMEWHAT LESS SEVERE THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. RAPID MOTION OF SYSTEM AND PLUME OF HVY RAIN AHEAD OF
OCCLUSION WILL RESULT IN RIVERS NEAR BANKFUL BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT OVER FLOOD STAGE. THE CLOSEST RIVERS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
AUSABLE AND BOQUET IN ESSEX COUNTY NY...AND THE OTTER CREEK IN
RUTLAND COUNTY. AGAIN...THESE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 1 FOOT
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BASED ON PRESENT QPF VALUES. HAVE NOT ISSUED A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL LET MID SHIFT REEVALUATE BASED ON
00Z GUIDANCE SUITE.

NEXT...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY...A COOLING LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG WLY WIND FIELDS
WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
GENERALLY WEST WINDS 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. ALSO...THE
WIND/THERMAL REGIME BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR A STG LAKE SNOW BAND OFF
LAKE ONTARIO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. THIS BAND SHOULD
INITIALLY BE ORIENTED ENEWD...EXTENDING INTO OUR SWRN CWA. IN
COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...WE/VE POSTED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCH FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WHERE
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES...AND STRONG WINDS/SNOW
SQUALLS...APPEAR LIKELY IN FAR SRN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/ AND ESSEX
COUNTIES IN NY. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREEN MTNS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...LIMITED WINTER STORM WATCH IN VT TO THE FAR NRN GREEN MTNS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW /GREATER THAN 6 INCHES SHOULD OCCUR/. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS WILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR
WIND ADVISORIES OR A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ON SUNDAY.

THANKS TO BUF...ALY...GYX...AND THE NERFC WILL COLLABORATION EFFORTS
WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
VERMONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER EAST. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
BUT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN HPC GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN 00Z EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTH INTO QUEBEC. HAVE GONE COLDER
THAN HPC AND 00Z EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND BE OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT...AS
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK. BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN. SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WHEN
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR VTZ016>019 FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM
     SATURDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VTZ016 FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR NYZ029-030-034-087 FROM 1 AM SUNDAY
     TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAHIFF









FXUS61 KBTV 272112 CCA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
511 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VERY ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD UPCOMING WITH STRONG UPR TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER WRN TN AT 21Z EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD AND
DEEPEN MARKEDLY AS IT TRACKS TO JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 18Z SAT
/CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWN TO 977MB 18Z SAT IN 12Z GFS/. EWD EXTENDING
OCCLUSION SWEEPS NEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD 1-1.25"
QPF AND ISOLATED AMTS UP TO 2" DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW REGIME WILL YIELD SHADOWING EFFECTS DOWNWIND OF
THE WHITE MTNS OF NH...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY LESS IN THE LWR
PASSUMPSIC VLY TOMORROW. AS PRECIP DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT...A PERIOD
OF RAIN AND SNOW MIXED IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL/NERN VT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 1 INCH OR LESS...AS
WARMING THERMAL PROFILE RAPIDLY TRANSITIONS ALL PRECIP OVER TO RAIN
BY 12Z SAT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF HAZARDOUS WX THRU THE WEEKEND.
FIRST...THE SELY 850MB FLOW UP TO 80KTS SUGGESTS HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA IN THE COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS...WHERE DOWNSLOPE/GAP EFFECTS WILL OVERCOME THE OTHERWISE
STABLE AND VERY MOIST PBL. HAVE MENTIONED WIND GUSTS UP TO 70MPH
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES TOMORROW IN BOTH ZONES AND NPW. IN THE
VLYS...WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TOMORROW.

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS APPEARS SOMEWHAT LESS SEVERE THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. RAPID MOTION OF SYSTEM AND PLUME OF HVY RAIN AHEAD OF
OCCLUSION WILL RESULT IN RIVERS NEAR BANKFUL BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT OVER FLOOD STAGE. THE CLOSEST RIVERS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
AUSABLE AND BOQUET IN ESSEX COUNTY NY...AND THE OTTER CREEK IN
RUTLAND COUNTY. AGAIN...THESE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 1 FOOT
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BASED ON PRESENT QPF VALUES. HAVE NOT ISSUED A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL LET MID SHIFT REEVALUATE BASED ON
00Z GUIDANCE SUITE.

NEXT...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY...A COOLING LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG WLY WIND FIELDS
WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
GENERALLY WEST WINDS 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. ALSO...THE
WIND/THERMAL REGIME BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR A STG LAKE SNOW BAND OFF
LAKE ONTARIO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. THIS BAND SHOULD
INITIALLY BE ORIENTED ENEWD...EXTENDING INTO OUR SWRN CWA. IN
COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...WE/VE POSTED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCH FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WHERE
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES...AND STRONG WINDS/SNOW
SQUALLS...APPEAR LIKELY IN FAR SRN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/ AND ESSEX
COUNTIES IN NY. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREEN MTNS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...LIMITED WINTER STORM WATCH IN VT TO THE FAR NRN GREEN MTNS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW /GREATER THAN 6 INCHES SHOULD OCCUR/. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS WILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR
WIND ADVISORIES OR A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ON SUNDAY.

THANKS TO BUF...ALY...GYX...AND THE NERFC WILL COLLABORATION EFFORTS
WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
VERMONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER EAST. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
BUT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN HPC GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN 00Z EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTH INTO QUEBEC. HAVE GONE COLDER
THAN HPC AND 00Z EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND BE OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT...AS
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK. BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN. SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WHEN
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR VTZ016>019 FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM
     SATURDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VTZ016 FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR NYZ029-030-034-087 FROM 1 AM SUNDAY
     TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH










FXUS61 KBTV 272112
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
511 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VERY ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD UPCOMING WITH STRONG UPR TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER WRN TN AT 21Z EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD AND
DEEPEN MARKEDLY AS IT TRACKS TO JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 18Z SAT
/CENTER PRESSURE DOWN TO 977MB IN 12Z GFS/. EWD EXTENDING OCCLUSION
SWEEPS NEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD 1-1.25" QPF AND ISOLATED
AMTS UP TO 2" DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW
REGIME WILL YIELD SHADOWING EFFECTS DOWNWIND OF THE WHITE MTNS OF
NH...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY LESS IN THE LWR PASSUMPSIC VLY
TOMORROW. AS PRECIP DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT...A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
SNOW MIXED IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NERN VT.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 1 INCH OR LESS...AS WARMING THERMAL
PROFILE RAPIDLY TRANSITIONS ALL PRECIP OVER TO RAIN BY 12Z SAT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF HAZARDOUS WX THRU THE WEEKEND.
FIRST...THE SELY 850MB FLOW UP TO 80KTS SUGGESTS HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA IN THE COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS...WHERE DOWNSLOPE/GAP EFFECTS WILL OVERCOME THE OTHERWISE
STABLE AND VERY MOIST PBL. HAVE MENTIONED WIND GUSTS UP TO 70MPH
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES TOMORROW IN BOTH ZONES AND NPW. IN THE
VLYS...WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TOMORROW.

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS APPEARS SOMEWHAT LESS SEVERE THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. RAPID MOTION OF SYSTEM AND PLUME OF HVY RAIN AHEAD OF
OCCLUSION WILL RESULT IN RIVERS NEAR BANKFUL BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT OVER FLOOD STAGE. THE CLOSEST RIVERS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
AUSABLE AND BOQUET IN ESSEX COUNTY NY...AND THE OTTER CREEK IN
RUTLAND COUNTY. AGAIN...THESE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 1 FOOT
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BASED ON PRESENT QPF VALUES. HAVE NOT ISSUED A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL LET MID SHIFT REEVALUATE BASED ON
00Z GUIDANCE SUITE.

NEXT...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY...A COOLING LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG WLY WIND FIELDS
WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
GENERALLY WEST WINDS 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. ALSO...THE
WIND/THERMAL REGIME BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR A STG LAKE SNOW BAND OFF
LAKE ONTARIO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. THIS BAND SHOULD
INITIALLY BE ORIENTED ENEWD...EXTENDING INTO OUR SWRN CWA. IN
COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...WE/VE POSTED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCH FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WHERE
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES...AND STRONG WINDS/SNOW
SQUALLS...APPEAR LIKELY IN FAR SRN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/ AND ESSEX
COUNTIES IN NY. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREEN MTNS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...LIMITED WINTER STORM WATCH IN VT TO THE FAR NRN GREEN MTNS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW /GREATER THAN 6 INCHES SHOULD OCCUR/. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS WILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR
WIND ADVISORIES OR A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ON SUNDAY.

THANKS TO BUF...ALY...GYX...AND THE NERFC WILL COLLABORATION EFFORTS
WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
VERMONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER EAST. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
BUT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN HPC GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN 00Z EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTH INTO QUEBEC. HAVE GONE COLDER
THAN HPC AND 00Z EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND BE OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT...AS
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK. BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN. SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WHEN
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR VTZ016>019 FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM
     SATURDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VTZ016 FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR NYZ029-030-034-087 FROM 1 AM SUNDAY
     TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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May 2009, Week 3
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April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 4
December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
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March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
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