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SKIVT-L  October 2006, Week 4

SKIVT-L October 2006, Week 4

Subject:

Snow Tomorrow

From:

Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 28 Oct 2006 14:46:32 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (98 lines)

Jim Crowley...no worries about October snowfall leading to a bad winter.  
Maybe if this storm was snow it might raise an eyebrow or two, but its 
not.  Major (strong) low pressure systems are still tracking west of the 
region (but slightly further east than the last one) so our seasonal 
progression towards the east coast looks good; each storm laying down a 
new layer of snowcover in Canada while expanding snowcovered regions 
southeastward.  We will likely go up and down through a variable pattern 
in November but rather normal overall...mild with some rain then cold with 
some snow is pretty typical weather this time of year.  Normal is a good 
sign.

Today...wow, winds gusting near 100mph now on Mt. Washington and 
increasing.  Low level jet is ridiculously strong at 50-70kts.  Rarely do 
we see that and while some elevated locations are seeing strong winds, the 
atmosphere is relatively stable so valley locations won't really tap into 
that.  Its actually kind of quiet in the Champlain Valley with the 
exception of periods of heavy rain.  I certainly wouldn't want to be 
anywhere above 2,500ft today but as Carol reports, there are definitely 
going to be high gusts down towards 1,000ft, especially near any gaps in 
the Green Mtns.  The wind flow is nearly identical to how I-89 runs 
through the Greens from the SE to NW so I bet there's some high winds 
being forced through the Bolton flats.

Rain should taper off later this evening when the 0C 850mb line swings 
through changing the highest elevations over to light snow between 8pm and 
midnight.  Then...

The NWS has issued Winter Storm Watches for parts of the Adirondacks for 
an upslope/lake effect snow combo that should bury the Tug Hill and 
western/northern Adirondacks...as well as for Eastern Franklin County in 
VT mainly for the Jay Peak region.  I believe they should expand the watch 
southward down to eastern Rutland County for the Killington region.

The wrap around moisture coupled with a strong WSW flow will set up an 
interesting upslope event tomorrow...one that I believe favors the 
Killington region and Jay Peak.  Its hard to say just how much areas 
between the two locations will get as they will be blocked by the 
Adirondacks in terms of added Great Lakes moisture.  It will be 
interesting to see what happens because the wind flow puts the High Peaks 
of the Adirondacks right in front of the Bolton to Mansfield region.  Can 
Mansfield over-come that?  Not sure.  

My current thinking for tomorrow is for orographic snow to break out 
around dawn and continue throughout the day.  Heaviest snowfall near Jay 
Peak where Lake Ontario moisture will add another dynamic to the normal 
upslope snowfall.  12"+ of very windblown snow is likely at Jay Peak by 
Monday morning (12" at base of Green Mtn Flyer increasing as you go up)  1-
2 feet is likely on the Tug Hill with more widespread 6-12" across the 
northern/western Adirondacks.  I will go with 6-12" at Killington above 
2,000ft (roughly KBL elevation)...and up to 6" down into the RT4 corridor 
around Killington and Pico.  Between Jay Peak and Killington 
(SB/MRG/Mansfield/Bolton/Smuggs), I estimate 4-8" from 1,500ft on up and 
below 1,500ft up to 4" depending on if/where any squalls develop.  The 
SB/MRG/Bolton/Mansfield/Smuggs region could see a foot but I think that 
would be restricted to near the 4,000ft ridgeline of the spine.  That 
region is where I have the lowest confidence in the forecast with equal 
chances of higher or lower amounts.

4,000ft temps right now are probably around 35F so its possible its been 
snowing down the the very highest elevations of the spine today...but I'd 
wager that from 3,000ft up the snowpack will still be there to some 
degree.  That was some pretty dense stuff that didn't have any settling to 
do.

Field reports, out the window reports, and second hand reports will be 
appreciated tomorrow.

-Scott

PS: Here's the Watch for the extreme northern Green Mtn spine. 

EASTERN FRANKLIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD
1202 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTED TO BE
WEST AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME LIGHTER DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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