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SKIVT-L  October 2006, Week 4

SKIVT-L October 2006, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 27 Oct 2006 06:50:12 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (512 lines)

Expires:200610272000;;815285
FPUS51 KBTV 270822
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-272000-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH
422 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING. RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 1 INCH. BREEZY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN OR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. BREEZY WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...RAIN OR SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY IN
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. BREEZY WITH HIGHS AROUND
40. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

NOAA's NWS will be accepting comments on proposed IWIN replacement pages
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     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 270751
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER TODAY...THEN COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY.

SFC PLOT SHOWS NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTH
TO THE DELMARVA COASTLINE. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. STILL
PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HOWEVER WE'RE HOPEFUL THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING. THIS WILL
BE OUR BEST CHANCE IN SEVERAL DAYS IN SEEING THE SUN.

HI CI CLOUDS MOVE IN QUICKLY LATER TODAY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SPILLS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.

GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ALL WEEK IN FORECASTING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW...NOW OVER OKLAHOMA...TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS GFS AND NAMS
DOWNPLAYING SPINUP OF SEPARATE COASTAL LOW...WITH MAIN AREA LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRAVELLING UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...AND TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR QPF DISCUSSION.

VERY STRONG WIND EVENT IN THE WORKS FOR SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL IS
ON LEEWARD WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOW
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DOWNSLOPING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WESTERN
SLOPES FOR SATURDAY. REST OF AREA WILL LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED AS THE EVENT DRAWS
NEARER PER LOCAL POLICY.

BROUGHT RAIN IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD
SEE IT BEGIN WITH SOME SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN. WARM AIR MOVES IN
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND ANY FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE BRIEF.
100 PCNT POPS ON SATURDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WORDING.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOW IS CENTERED TO NORTH IN QUEBEC...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
WITH SLOW MOVING SURFACE/UPPER LOW WE'LL SEE CONTINUED
RAIN/SNOWSHOWERS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS SIMILAR TO THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND LINGERING RAIN/SNOWSHOWERS IN INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH MONDAY. RIDGE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY
WITH BRIEF RESPITE...THEN A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER
CHC FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...

KBTV...VFR.
KMSS...VFR.
KSLK...MVFR DUE TO CIGS...VFR BY 15Z.
KMPV...MVFR DUE TO CIGS...VFR BY 15Z.

PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULS IN MOIST NW FLOW EARLY EARLY TODAY. THIS
IS WEAKENING AS SOME LOWER DEW PTS AND DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO
THE AREA. 3.9 IR SATELLITE SHOWING EDGES ERODING SLOWLY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND LOWER
AND THICKEN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL US. OUTLOOK AFT 06Z...PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND
EXPECT LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR 06Z-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY /SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIP WITH SATURDAYS EVENT. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN FORECAST ALONG SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE REMNANTS OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERCEPT THE
BEST MOISTURE FLUX...AND MODEL QPF UP TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT TAPERING OFF TO 1 TO 2 IN SOUTHERN VT. RELATIVE MIN
IN QPF IN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VT IN SHADOWED/DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS...THEN SECOND MAX OVER MONTREAL UNDER THE MAIN UPPER/SFC
LOW.

HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 ALSO DEPICTS SMALLER SECONDARY MAX IN
ESSEX COUNTY NY...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW HEADING INTO ADIRONDACKS
WILL ENHANCE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND BRING FLOOD POTENTIAL TO AUSABLE
AND BOQUET BASINS...AS WELL AS SMALLER RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST ESSEX
COUNTY. OTHER RIVERS AT RISK INCLUDE MISSISQUOI AND
PASSUMPSIC...WHERE PRECIP FORECAST IS LESS...BUT HIGH FLOWS
REMAIN FROM HEAVIER RAIN LAST WEEKEND. SOUTHERN VT RIVERS...OTTER
CREEK...WHITE AT RISK FROM HEAVIER PRECIP FORECAST.

WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /ALBESFBTV/.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR VTZ016>019 FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM
     SATURDAY.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...HANSON











FXUS61 KBTV 270204
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT THU OCT 26 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SFC OBS INDICATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACRS FA  COULD
BE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLRYS FOR BALANCE OF EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE
DRY WX. STLT PICS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY CLDY SKIES ACRS
RGN...WITH A FEW BRKS IN CLOUD COVER OVER NY SIDE OF CHMPLN VLY
AND IN SC VT. AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST INTO FA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS...ALTHO MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LLVL MSTR
RMNS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. SO GOING FCST OF MSTLY CLDY...WITH
SOME CLRNG ST LWR VLY AND SC VT...STILL LOOKS OK. AS WINDS
DIMINISH...ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPS TO APPROACH FCSTD MINS...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 413 PM EDT THU OCT 26 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY FCST CHALLENGE OVER COURSE OF SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENT
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS PRONOUNCED
NRN/SRN STREAMS PHASE ACROSS NERN CONUS WITH WIDE VARIETY OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...INCLUDING STRONG WINDS...FLOODING
AND SNOWFALL.

LATEST SYNOPTIC/SFC MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW OLD CLOSED MARITIME UPPER
LOW KEEPING MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW LIGHT -SHRA AND/OR -SHRASN ABV 2 KFT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
TODAY...BUT IN GENERAL MOISTURE PROFILE HAS BEEN SLOWLY THINNING
OVER COURSE OF THE DAY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHES ENE INTO REGION. WILL KEEP
INHERITED FCSTS IDEA OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT PCPN TO END
OVERNIGHT...LEAVING GRADUALLY THINNING CLOUD COVER. TEMPS AGAIN
FAIRLY UNIFORM...THOUGH IN AREAS THAT DO EXPERIENCE MORE CLEARING
READINGS WILL BE A TAD LOWER.

GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY UNDER LIGHT SFC WIND REGIME AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC TO MID LVL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS REGION. RATHER HIGH EVAPORATION RATES/MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS...AND LACK OF ANY REAL PRONOUNCED LL WAA SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE...AND SOMEWHAT BELOW WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE. THEN AFTER A GENERALLY COOL AND CLEAR EVENING...SKIES TO
BECOME OVERCAST OVERNIGHT...WITH BROAD PCPN SHIELD ENCROACHING ON
SW FA BY MORNING.

VERY COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING WX SCENARIO TO THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE LADEN SRN STREAM
SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES NE INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
PHASING WITH PRONOUNCED AND DIGGING UPPER NRN STREAM TROUGH PUSHING
QUICLY SE INTO REGION FROM NORTH CENTRAL STATES. SOME DISPARITY ON
MODEL SOLNS IN REGARDS TO QPF AND SFC LOW PLACEMENT. HAVE LEANED
SOMEWHAT MORE TOWARDS THE NAM SOLN HERE...AS GFS APPEARS TO ACTUALLY
DEEPEN INITIAL PARENT OCCLUDED CENTER NW OF CYOW INSTEAD OF SFC
COASTAL. NONETHELESS...INCREASING SERLY FLOW WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAFL TO PUSH QUICKLY NE ACROSS AREA DURING THE
DAY (SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW). WBZ AND AVBL SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD
STILL SUGGEST THE POSSBILITY OF SOME MIXED PL/SN AT THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS DACKS...AND ESP ERN VT EARLY SAT...BUT STRENGTH OF WAA
ALOFT AND GENERAL WARMING OF PBL THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD ALLOW P-TYPE TO BECOME ALL RAIN
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFOREMENTIONED SERLY FLOW ALSO ADDS CREDENCE
TO MODEL QPF SHOWING POTENTIAL SHADOWING EFFECTS WEST/NORTHWEST OF
WHITE/GREEN MTNS ACROS CHVLY/NERN VT DURING THE DAY. NONETHELESS...
CATEGORICAL PCPN WILL BE OFFERED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS...AND STRONGLY COUPLED
FRONTOGENETICAL/SYNOPTIC LIFT TO 35-40 KFT DURING THE DAY.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL GUSTY TO STRONG SERLY DOWNSLOPING
GAP WINDS ACROSS WRN SLOPES OF GREENS SAT MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
FAVORED PBL WIND PROFILES FROM 160 DEG WOULD SUGGEST GUST POTENTIAL
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH CERTAINLY POSSBL ACROSS THESE LOCALES.

AS SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND OCCLUDES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS REGION. INITIAL DRY SLOT AT MID LVLS QUITE EVIDENT AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN PCPN INITIALLY SAT NIGHT BEFORE WRAP-AROUND
AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PCPN TAKES HOLD LATER AT NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND
POSSBL DAMAGING WSW WINDS BEHIND SFC BNDRY AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. THIS TYPE OF SIGNAL WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR ACROSS CHANNELED AREAS OF SLV/NW SLOPES OF
DACKS AND EXTREME NW VT DURING MUCH OF SUNDAY...WITH GUST POTENTIAL
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH QUITE POSSBL. STAY TUNED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
HPC MIN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST AND BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BRINGING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SLOW AND APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL PUT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
ZONES...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CANADIAN BORDER ZONES
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION.

AVIATION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE REGION BY 12Z ON FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS
THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION AFTER
03Z. EXPECTING CIRRUS CLOUDS TO INCREASE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK AFTER 12Z THROUGH 18Z ON FRIDAY...AS THE REGION COMES UNDER
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.

HYDROLOGY...
BASIN WIDE QPF WITH UPCOMING EVENT ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO AVG 1 TO
2 INCHES WITH SCATTERED 2.5 INCH TOTALS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SHARP RISES ON AREA MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN WATERSHEDS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS








FXUS61 KBTV 262013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 PM EDT THU OCT 26 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY FCST CHALLENGE OVER COURSE OF SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENT
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS PRONOUNCED
NRN/SRN STREAMS PHASE ACROSS NERN CONUS WITH WIDE VARIETY OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...INCLUDING STRONG WINDS...FLOODING
AND SNOWFALL.

LATEST SYNOPTIC/SFC MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW OLD CLOSED MARITIME UPPER
LOW KEEPING MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW LIGHT -SHRA AND/OR -SHRASN ABV 2 KFT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
TODAY...BUT IN GENERAL MOISTURE PROFILE HAS BEEN SLOWLY THINNING
OVER COURSE OF THE DAY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHES ENE INTO REGION. WILL KEEP
INHERITED FCSTS IDEA OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT PCPN TO END
OVERNIGHT...LEAVING GRADUALLY THINNING CLOUD COVER. TEMPS AGAIN
FAIRLY UNIFORM...THOUGH IN AREAS THAT DO EXPERIENCE MORE CLEARING
READINGS WILL BE A TAD LOWER.

GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY UNDER LIGHT SFC WIND REGIME AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC TO MID LVL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS REGION. RATHER HIGH EVAPORATION RATES/MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS...AND LACK OF ANY REAL PRONOUNCED LL WAA SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE...AND SOMEWHAT BELOW WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE. THEN AFTER A GENERALLY COOL AND CLEAR EVENING...SKIES TO
BECOME OVERCAST OVERNIGHT...WITH BROAD PCPN SHIELD ENCROACHING ON
SW FA BY MORNING.

VERY COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING WX SCENARIO TO THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE LADEN SRN STREAM
SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES NE INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
PHASING WITH PRONOUNCED AND DIGGING UPPER NRN STREAM TROUGH PUSHING
QUICLY SE INTO REGION FROM NORTH CENTRAL STATES. SOME DISPARITY ON
MODEL SOLNS IN REGARDS TO QPF AND SFC LOW PLACEMENT. HAVE LEANED
SOMEWHAT MORE TOWARDS THE NAM SOLN HERE...AS GFS APPEARS TO ACTUALLY
DEEPEN INITIAL PARENT OCCLUDED CENTER NW OF CYOW INSTEAD OF SFC
COASTAL. NONETHELESS...INCREASING SERLY FLOW WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAFL TO PUSH QUICKLY NE ACROSS AREA DURING THE
DAY (SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW). WBZ AND AVBL SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD
STILL SUGGEST THE POSSBILITY OF SOME MIXED PL/SN AT THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS DACKS...AND ESP ERN VT EARLY SAT...BUT STRENGTH OF WAA
ALOFT AND GENERAL WARMING OF PBL THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD ALLOW P-TYPE TO BECOME ALL RAIN
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFOREMENTIONED SERLY FLOW ALSO ADDS CREDENCE
TO MODEL QPF SHOWING POTENTIAL SHADOWING EFFECTS WEST/NORTHWEST OF
WHITE/GREEN MTNS ACROS CHVLY/NERN VT DURING THE DAY. NONETHELESS...
CATEGORICAL PCPN WILL BE OFFERED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS...AND STRONGLY COUPLED
FRONTOGENETICAL/SYNOPTIC LIFT TO 35-40 KFT DURING THE DAY.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL GUSTY TO STRONG SERLY DOWNSLOPING
GAP WINDS ACROSS WRN SLOPES OF GREENS SAT MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
FAVORED PBL WIND PROFILES FROM 160 DEG WOULD SUGGEST GUST POTENTIAL
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH CERTAINLY POSSBL ACROSS THESE LOCALES.

AS SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND OCCLUDES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS REGION. INITIAL DRY SLOT AT MID LVLS QUITE EVIDENT AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN PCPN INITIALLY SAT NIGHT BEFORE WRAP-AROUND
AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PCPN TAKES HOLD LATER AT NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND
POSSBL DAMAGING WSW WINDS BEHIND SFC BNDRY AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. THIS TYPE OF SIGNAL WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR ACROSS CHANNELED AREAS OF SLV/NW SLOPES OF
DACKS AND EXTREME NW VT DURING MUCH OF SUNDAY...WITH GUST POTENTIAL
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH QUITE POSSBL. STAY TUNED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
HPC MIN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST AND BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BRINGING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SLOW AND APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL PUT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
ZONES...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CANADIAN BORDER ZONES
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE REGION BY 12Z ON FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS
THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION AFTER
03Z. EXPECTING CIRRUS CLOUDS TO INCREASE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK AFTER 12Z THROUGH 18Z ON FRIDAY...AS THE REGION COMES UNDER
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN WIDE QPF WITH UPCOMING EVENT ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO AVG 1 TO
2 INCHES WITH SCATTERED 2.5 INCH TOTALS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SHARP RISES ON AREA MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN WATERSHEDS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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August 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 2
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June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
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May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
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April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
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March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
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February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
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January 2008, Week 4
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
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October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
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March 2007, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 4
November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
September 2004, Week 5
September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
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August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
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