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SKIVT-L  December 2006, Week 3

SKIVT-L December 2006, Week 3

Subject:

Latest AFD from BTV: The Agony and the Ecstasy

From:

Mike Bernstein <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 15 Dec 2006 17:34:10 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (59 lines)

First, the Ecstasy:

 COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 TIME
PERIOD WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING. STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH AMOUNT OF PHASING BTWN
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WEDS THRU FRI AND THE AMOUNT OF
CAA. MONDAY NITE INTO TUES...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WL DEVELOP ALONG
SFC COLD FRNT AND PROVIDE FA WITH PERIOD OF PRECIP.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WL BE RAIN..BUT AS LLVLS COOL AND CAA DEVELOPS
PRECIP WL CHANGE TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY TUES
MORNING. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AND LLVL UPSLOPE FLW COULD PROVIDE FA WITH SOME MORE SNOW ON TUES
INTO EARLY WEDS OVER THE MTNS. THE NORTHERN FLW BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING SYSTEM WL ADVECT A COOL AIR MASS ACRS OUR CWA LATE TUES
INTO WEDS. FCSTER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS BOTH GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PROGGED 85H TEMPS AND
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN SHOW 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C.
THEREFORE WL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND KEEP MENTION OF
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUES INTO WEDS. MTNS WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM LATE
MONDAY THRU EARLY WEDS MORNING.

Then the Agony:

MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WL SLOWLY EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDS INTO
THURS WITH SFC CYCLOGENSIS TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS...WHILE
A COOL NW FLW ALOFT CONTS OVER OUR FA. THIS NW FLW IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP A FAST CONFLUENT FLW ACRS THE NE CONUS THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH BEST MOISTURE/LIFT MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL STRONG S/W
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WL DIG A DEEPER CLOSED
OFF SYSTEM THEN CRNT MODELS SUGGEST...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE SE/EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES. I FEEL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS IS TOO SUPPRESSED
WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND
THAT THE SFC LOW TRACK WL EVENTUALLY TRACK NE ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AND PLACE OUR FA IN THE WARM
SECTOR ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO OUR FA. THIS SYSTEM WL HAVE PLENTY OF
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

Brooke Taber - WHY DO YOU TORMENT ME SO??!!!!

While this is at least better than consistently 40s and rain, we really 
need to hope next weekend's system doesn't cut to the lakes.  Not unlike 
the Suck Cut(TM), it certainly would suck.  My only small bit of solace is 
that the snow is forecasted in the medium range whereas the potential rain 
is in the long-range, and hence not as reliable.

Grumble.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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