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SKIVT-L  September 2008, Week 5

SKIVT-L September 2008, Week 5

Subject:

Re: OT, More Droning, Sub Prime Lending Revelation

From:

Mike Bernstein <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 30 Sep 2008 19:24:40 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (236 lines)

On Mon, 29 Sep 2008 23:33:50 -0400, Leigh Daboll <[log in to unmask]> 
wrote:

>Frankly, the lowest common denominator was the latest "Talk american,
>dammit" post.
>
>Funny, for an article that was supposedly "a refutation of my right wing
>drivel" i thought that virtually the *entire* article was on point with my
>prior posts.
>
>Should I therefore have pasted the entire article before I considered
>resting my case?  Hardly necessary.  Although I would have expected you
>would have read it, Mike, before you posted a retort.

This confused me for a few reasons.  One, the reference to the lowest 
common demonitaro was completely misunderstood or miscontrued, to the 
point where Leigh's response was a non-sequitor.  Second, I hadn't seen 
anything in my perusal of the Janet Yellen speech that validated anything 
Leigh had said.  So, I went back and read Leigh's original intellectual tour de 
force OT: Transforming the West and then read the Yellen speech word for 
word.  For some background, here is Leigh's post where he stated his case:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The sky just ain't falling for the 90% of average Joes who didn't wildly 
overextend his/her lifestyle on speculative house purchase from an idea they 
saw on American Home Makeover.

 Life will move on with the landscape altered to place a renewed priority on 
basic economic and family-centric (read: socially conservative) lifestyle as 
the west adjusts to the fact that Chinese and Indian workers actually work 
ten hours in an eight-hour day, not four hours in a seven-hour day.  Same as 
the thirties, New Deal notwithstanding.

 Environmentalism, now that it has replaced socialism as the preferred 
income redistribution ideology of the left (with the VERY EARTH at stake!), 
but now waaaaaay down on average Joe's priority list, will be resuscitated 
into New Deal style make-work program, but will frankly have little traction 
of its own.

Times will be really tight while the bills are being paid off.  Still, 
everyone who buys in at 10 cents on the dollar will make a killing in the 
future.

Europe will not be in any position to offer any competition to the economic 
resurgence of North America (albeit lagging behind Asia's prominence) as it 
contorts itself inside out undergoing an Islamic transformation over next 
generation.

Discuss amongst yourselves while I marshal my thoughts and supporting 
sources.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Let's take a moment to break this down into its constituent parts. 

1) "The sky just ain't falling for the 90% of average Joes who didn't wildly 
overextend his/her lifestyle on speculative house purchase from an idea they 
saw on American Home Makeover."

Well it isn't just yet, though presumably the other 90% have seen the value of 
their stock market portfolio fall by over 25% since this mess began like the 
rest of us.  The next shoe to drop (it's actually dropping already), which our 
Canadian William Jennings Bryan doesn't understand, is that of the credit 
markets.  Spreads between LIBOR (the London Interbank Overnight Rate at 
which banks lend to each other) and US Treasuries reached an all-time high 
yesterday.  That means that money is rushing into the perceived safe harbor 
of US govt bonds while the price of money in the world economy is higher than 
it's ever been in comparison.  IOW, no one wants to lend a dime to anyone 
right now, not even overnight, not even for the best of credits.  Regardless of 
whether you call it the grease of the economy or the engine, either way, your 
car ain't running without it.   Wait until the avg Joe (non- Dana category) tries 
to get a small business loan, car loan, or a credit card.  Wait until Fortune 500 
exec not-so-average Joe tries to expand his company or refinance his 
outstanding debt.  The unwillingness of the financial sector to provide credit 
to those who want it will bring every single facet of our economy to its knees 
in very short order.  So Leigh is already wrong and will be even more wrong in 
the days and weeks to come, especially if the rescue package fails.  

2) "Life will move on with the landscape altered to place a renewed priority on 
basic economic and family-centric (read: socially conservative) lifestyle as 
the west adjusts to the fact that Chinese and Indian workers actually work 
ten hours in an eight-hour day, not four hours in a seven-hour day.  Same as 
the thirties, New Deal notwithstanding."

Really?  I'm puzzled by this prediction in light of US economic history.  The 
Great Depression was only the last in a series of dramatic crashes/panics 
which occured roughly every 20 years for most of our history to that point.  
I'm fairly certain that the slow-motion relaxation of social mores over the 
centuries continued unabated in the wake of each and every one of those 
crises.  I would challenge you to point out even a single example where a more 
socially conservative lifestyle became a permanent, or even temporarily 
predominant (i.e. for a generation) trend in US culture.  More likely, this 
prediction simply represents wishcasting for your desired socio-economic 
structure than any fact-based analysis of likely outcomes.  And setting the 
historical record aside for the moment, why would it follow that people will 
yearn for a socially conservative way of life when this crisis is over?  Are 
people going to find God in the midst of their foreclosure papers?  Will there 
now be widespread outrage at gay rights, abortion, immigration, euthanasia, 
and separation of church and state b/c of a sharp economic contraction?  
Even if there were, would it not stand to reason that this would be more of a 
sign of temporary scapegoating than any fundamental shift in the belief 
system of the American people?

As for your analysis on the threat posed by Chinese and Indian workers, it is 
surely a threat to those of us with low skills and poor education.  OTOH, why 
is it that the rise of Japan and the Asian Tigers (S Korea, Thailand, HK, 
Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, etc...) didn't have the dire consequences 
predicted then?  Remember all the books in the 80s about how Japan was 
going to pass the US b/cof their superior economic system and our laziness?  
Oops.  While we can all aspire to your shining example of hard work and thrift 
(After all, this is the unstated sub-text of your posts on this suibject, right?  
That we should all learn to be more like you in order to save society?) , our 
economic system and our existing capabilities as a nation will continue to 
provide growth and opportunity well into the foreseable future. 

In other words, your economic analysis seems to be based on some sort of 
simplistic, quasi-agrarian view on output.  Even using your example, the US 
can still grow and succeed while working less than our Chinese counterparts 
b/c the most important factor is productivity instead of hours worked.  Mr. 
Feng can work as had as he wants for 10 hours by hand, but Mr. Jones will still 
be a more valuable worker b/c he knows how to operate the mechanized 
combine and in 30 minutes can harvest just as much as Mr. Feng.  Moreover, 
Mr. Jones will get a better price for his output b/c he doesn't need to sell it to 
a State owned monopoly at less than market price.  He can also hedge his 
exposure on adverse price movement, which Mr. Feng can't do, and he can 
get cheap credit b/c he is able to borrow against the value of his land (which 
Mr. Feng can't do b/c he doesn't own the land).  This agricultural example 
could be repeated in just about any industry you choose.

3) "Environmentalism, now that it has replaced socialism as the preferred 
income redistribution ideology of the left (with the VERY EARTH at stake!), 
but now waaaaaay down on average Joe's priority list, will be resuscitated 
into New Deal style make-work program, but will frankly have little traction 
of its own."

This is so full of internal contradictions and pseudo logic that I don't even 
know where to begin.  Let me get this straight - with gas continuing to cost 
$4/gallon or so, you think that alternative forms of energy won't gain any 
traction?  How can you reconcile this prediction with the fact that US oil 
consumption is down 3% YoY with that noted Green radical GWB in the White 
House?  Isn't it more likely that a coalition of national security types (threat of 
dependance on foreign oil), big business (don't want to lose out to the stinkin' 
Euros on green technology), and the left will push the US towards a more 
energy-efficient future that is less reliant on hydrocarbons from the Middle 
East?

Even if this weren't likely, let's take your prediction at face value.  You've 
already foretold of a coming shift in socio-economic values to a more 
conservative baseline.  This is consistent with your visions of the likely 
prioritization of environmental programs.  Conservative change is coming!  If 
that's the case, then who estabishes and funds these classic left-wing "New 
Deal style make-work program(s)" in the absence of popular or politcal 
support?  And what will the people working in these programs be doing?  
Erecting windmills?  Building solar panels?  Digging holes by hand so that CO2 
emissions can be sequestered underground? Enlighten us.

4) "Times will be really tight while the bills are being paid off.  Still, 
everyone who buys in at 10 cents on the dollar will make a killing in the 
future."

This is truly a brilliant insight.  Buy in at 10 cents on the dollar and wait for 
prices to go up, then you'll make a killing.  The only useful thing you've said 
here is that times will be tough while the bills are being paid off.  In a macro 
sense, that's absolutely true.  The US has increasingly relied on foreign capital 
to sustain our economy b/c of our inability to save.  Thankfully, the Bush 
administration is about over, and with it the massive swing in government 
savings from positive to dramatically negative.  Hopefully, the coming reform of 
the housing market will help to encourage a more rational savings regime 
among the average Joes when they realize that saving money, and not some 
BS loan structure, is the real key to the American dream of home ownership.

5) "Europe will not be in any position to offer any competition to the economic 
resurgence of North America (albeit lagging behind Asia's prominence) as it 
contorts itself inside out undergoing an Islamic transformation over next 
generation."

So this is after the adjustment period referenced above, right?  And just so I'm 
clear, out of roughly 590 million people in Europe outside of Russia, the 23 
million (4%) that are Muslim are going to create an Islamic transformation over 
the next 20 years? If by "Islamic transformation" you mean something akin to 
the proliferation of Taco Bell restaurants representing a "Mexican 
transformation" of the US, then I agree with you.  If you are implying 
something more impactful, you really need to broaden your choices of media.


So let's go back to the top here.  No one really responded to your original post 
in detail perhaps b/c it was greeted in the same way one would react to a 
psychopath who cuts off his genitalia in front of you - slowly backing away 
towards the door.  Nonetheless, his Lector-ness provided a link to an article 
that he alleged refuted one of your other memes on the role CRA mandates 
may have had in creating this crisis.  You then post an excerpt where Yellen 
states that increasingly poor lending standards were primarily to blame, and 
you then all-but declared "mission accomplished" for so doing.  As evidenced 
by my response, I was a bit confused at this chest-thumping, seeing as how 
Yellen's view that you quoted is the lowest common denominator for any 
reasonable analysis of the roots of this crisis.  Anyone with a pulse and 
without an agenda will tell you that lousy underwriting (i.e. low lending 
standards) was a key root cause.  Hence, my confusion as to why you would 
use that excerpt to buttress your case that CRA mandates were a/the primary 
fact driving this decrease in lending standards.  The passage you quoted 
included no such conclusion.  

In fact, it appears that, yes, Leigh SHOULD have read the entire article, as 
just three paragraphs later, Yellen says this:

"Before I turn to potential interventions, I want to make one final point.  There 
has been a tendency to conflate the current problems in the subprime market 
with CRA-motivated lending, or with lending to low-income families in general.  
I believe it is very important to make a distinction between the two. Most of 
the loans made by depository institutions examined under the CRA have not 
been higher-priced loans, and studies have shown that the CRA has increased 
the volume of responsible lending to low- and moderate-income households. 
We should not view the current foreclosure trends as justification to abandon 
the goal of expanding access to credit among low-income households, since 
access to credit, and the subsequent ability to buy a home, remains one of 
the most important mechanisms we have to help low-income families build 
wealth over the long term."

Read that again, my friends.  That is direct evidence that Leigh is one of two 
things.  He is either intentionally misleading in order to better sell his agenda, 
or he is intellectually lazy.  Neither characterization is all that flattering for the 
good barrister, and should serve to remind Listers and lurkers alike that you 
must apply a substantial discount to the rantings and ravings from the lunatic 
fringe on either side of the spectrum.  Hence my confusion then, and now, as 
to why his case was even close to being rested.  

So what we have is an intellectually lazy and/or intentionally misleading farmer 
cum lawyer espousing a philosophy and outlook which seems to draw its 
inspiration more from the "End of Days" series of books than any serious 
economic treatise.  You, the reader, should be the judge as to whether any 
case has been made, let alone should be on the verge of being rested.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2011, Week 3
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March 2011, Week 4
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January 2011, Week 1
December 2010, Week 5
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December 2010, Week 3
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December 2010, Week 1
November 2010, Week 5
November 2010, Week 4
November 2010, Week 3
November 2010, Week 2
November 2010, Week 1
October 2010, Week 5
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October 2010, Week 3
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September 2010, Week 1
August 2010, Week 5
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August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
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July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
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June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
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February 2010, Week 1
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October 2009, Week 3
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October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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February 2002, Week 1
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