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SKIVT-L  October 2008, Week 2

SKIVT-L October 2008, Week 2

Subject:

Re: OT: It's Bad Out There

From:

Mike Bernstein <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 11:11:34 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (80 lines)

On Fri, 10 Oct 2008 10:48:11 -0400, Dana Dorsett <[log in to unmask]> 
wrote:

>Mike Bernstein [[log in to unmask]] wrote:

>Has anybody ever posited that thesis? (If so, I'd be curious to read
>it!)

Indeed they have, right here on this very board.  Look to the North.

>>Believe it or not, things would be even worse w/o the rescue backage,
>though
>>that is small solace at this point
>
>I've seen zero evidence that the rescue package has accomplished
>anything to date (beyond the hesitation of a few days while the market
>waited with bated breath.)  Liquidity is still locked up tight, Paulson
>seems to be a bit scattered on which front to fight, or which weapons to
>select from the arsenal that has been handed to him.  There's a chance
>that he'll eventually make some headway on SOME front, but so far he
>looks nothing but impotent despite the boatload of financial Viagra.
>(I'm glad not to have any Icelandic Krona accounts though, eh?)  I'm
>still only hoping that the prescribed cure doesn't end up being worse
>than the disease.  It's early yet, but so far he's flaggin' the course.
>We'll see if he can't pull a gentleman's C out of it by the mid-term.
>(If he fails it, can we just burn him alive on a pile of bad paper in
>the middle of Wall Street to set an example?)

I'm going to go out on a limb and speculate that you've seen no evidence b/c 
absolutely zero cash has actually been disbursed thus far.  Last I heard, that 
starts next week.

>NOTHING is gonna fix housing overpriced by 100% overnight or even over a
>year, and nothing is gonna restore bankers' confidence in one another
>until those assets are purged fully from everyone's books.  Housing
>deflation has to happen- you can't band-aid a burst-bubble, which is
>perhaps why nobody is yet willing to make the first move.  Candidates'
>blatherings notwithstanding, attempts at shoring up housing prices are
>NOT likely to succeed (and if they did, it's not necessarily a good
>thing for the economy in the longer term, or even the intermediate
>term.) The only questions are how fast & deeply will it fall, how those
>stuck with the paper are gonna handle it, and how much collateral damage
>gets taken in by the collapse. Stickin' ME and my KID with the bill to
>save the selohssa that set it up sure sucks, and I'm agnostic as to
>whether in the end collateral damage can be mitigated by much.  But
>we'll see...

This now goes WAY beyond housing to a degree that I really had no concept 
of.  We knew that the housing market was going to deflate, as credit became 
tighter and valuations more realistic.  This would result in an overall process 
known as de-leveraging.  What we are in fact now seeing is a de-leveraging of 
the entire world economy.  Everyone in the financial system has borrowed 
tremendous sums of money to try and make money from their capital bases.  
In layman's terms, when people saw the opportunity to make a penny on an 
investment of a nickel (20% return), they borrowed a billion nickels to make 
even more money.  In normal markets, that's a smart play b/c you can borrow 
at 4-5% and make 20%.  The problem is when the music stops, which it most 
certainly has, and people want their money back NOW.   It's all unwinding now.

>>f you are liquid, the next 1-3 years will present a plethora of
>opportunities that you are unlikely to
>>see again.
>
>I'm definitely viewing it as a buying opportunity- possibly even an
>early-retirement plan. YMMD.
>
>GM was trading at an UN-adjusted for inflation 55 year low yesterday,
>and they're "too big to fail" in this corporate-socialist climate.  I
>didn't buy...  yet.  The Nikkei fell off yet another cliff this morning
>right after the market opened, and the Japanese government seems to have
>been caught flat-footed.  There are buying opportunities to be had there
>too.

Yup yup yup.

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