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SKIVT-L  November 2010, Week 1

SKIVT-L November 2010, Week 1

Subject:

Re: Question for the weather gurus

From:

"Roger R. Hill" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:39:24 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (80 lines)

Yeah was looking at Canadian ECMWF early this AM but I'm totally with you after 12z model runs now 
Kind of a joke but still close -- see what tomorrow brings

-----Original Message-----
From: Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Scott Braaten
Sent: Wednesday, November 03, 2010 12:33 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [SKIVT-L] Question for the weather gurus

On Wed, 3 Nov 2010 06:02:44 -0400, Roger R. Hill 
<[log in to unmask]> wrote:

>Dicey but yes get excited � main stuff not until last � of storm still a few
>to several inches. There is chance that rain washes away some accumulated
>snow early in the storm at onset. Jay Peak could see more than just several
>inches more like a over a foot.  All speculation due to colder air not
>catching up with main precipitation shield � shame but upslope last part of
>storm should be interesting for local ski resorts � skinning.
>

Good to see you're a little more excited about this than I am, Roger.  I'm just 
not feeling this one for some reason.  

I honestly don't think we see any snow at any elevation on the front-end... 
unless its a brief period up above 3,000ft caused by evaporational cooling. 
Freezing level at 5,000ft and rising by sunset Thursday.

Anything that falls on the front end (<2" up high) gets washed out during 
Thursday night and Friday morning.

Adirondacks have a much better shot of some snow as they'll remain in the cold
(er) air off to the west. Snow levels don't hit the summits of the Greens again 
until early Friday afternoon and it lowers slowly throughout Friday 
afternoon/evening. Problem is by this point we are in the H7 dry slot and snow 
growth looks poor at best with weak lift. I could almost see the summits go to 
some freezing drizzle/mist before snow.

Better snow profile moves in later Friday night with some wrap around 
moisture...QPF values look very paltry, but I bet the upslope region has a 
chance at some light accumulations. Snow levels at that point will need to be 
fine tuned later on but the snow level will gradually make it to the valley floors 
Friday night and Saturday morning.

I'm concerned with how fast the models are pulling the moisture out of the 
area, as the low doesn't really wrap up until its pretty far north/west.... we 
never really get into a good cyclonic moisture feed from the Maritimes. For 
better upslope I'd like to see it cut-off and slow a bit further south and east.

I'd really also like to see some better snow growth and ice crystal formation.
I could see some QPF wasted on freezing rain/mist/drizzle and I'm positive this 
is what happened in this last event that caused so much ice and crust on the 
mountains.  There was over a 1/4" of glare ice glaze above 2,500ft on Monday 
and it was caused by the low level orographic lift occuring at temperatures not 
conductive to snowflake formation.

I could see this happening as the lift becomes less synoptic in nature and more 
orographic induced... the better UVV will shift to a lower altitude, into warmer 
temperatures (still below freezing though) and a less favorable snow 
production zone.  I could see grauple and super-cooled droplets cutting down 
on any significant accums.  With that said, snow profiles look much better in 
the northern Adirondack upslope region... I certainly think the northern slope 
of the Dacks is the winner with this one.

Basically I'm not that impressed so far here in VT... will certainly see some 
snow but I can't imagine anyone getting more than 1-3" (even in the upper 
elevations) on the backside of this. Adirondacks might be more like 3-6" 
though and stand a much better chance at potentially Advisory Level snows. 

-Scott

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