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SKIVT-L  March 2011, Week 5

SKIVT-L March 2011, Week 5

Subject:

Re: April Fool's Storm

From:

Scott Danis <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 29 Mar 2011 19:57:52 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (107 lines)

call me a fool but this forecast is getting better...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A
HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL VT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL...LARGE SCALE
PATTERN FEATURES DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS...A PATTERN WE HAVE WITNESS MOST OF THE WINTER...ALONG 
WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE JET STREAM WINDS 
ALOFT.
FIRST...S/W AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WL PASS OFF THE MID 
ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...WHILE POTENT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGS 
INTO THE
SE CONUS LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. THIS WL HELP TO ENHANCE SFC 
LOW
PRES NEAR CAPE HATTERAS ON THURS NIGHT...WHICH WL TRACK TWD 
CAPE
COD ON FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP AND NEGATIVELY 
CLOSED
5H/7H CIRCULATION WL HELP TO ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK 
INTO
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA. MEANWHILE...DEPARTING ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL KEEP LLVL NORTHERLY FLW 
ACRS
OUR CWA AND THICKNESS VALUES JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MAINLY 
SNOW
EVENT ACRS THE MTNS AND MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE VALLEYS.

THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS AND 12Z GEM ALL SHOW DEVELOPING 
MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BECMG QUICKLY CLOSED OFF...WHILE THE SFC LOW PRES 
TRACKS
FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SAT. MEANWHILE...THE 
CLOSED
5H/7H CIRCULATIONS TRACK FROM EASTERN PA INTO SNE BY 00Z
SAT...WITH A VERY TIGHT AND SMALL CIRCULATION...RESULTING IN 
SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF QPF ADVECTING BACK INTO OUR 
WESTERN
CWA. THE OVERALL SFC LOW TRACK IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A 
SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP EVENT...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL VT. MID/UPPER LVL
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST ALL SNOW...BUT GIVEN HIGH 
SUN ANGLE...
BL TEMPS WL WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAYTIME HRS TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. BEST 
POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVY WET SNOWFALL EVENT WL BE ACRS THE MTNS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN AND NORTHERN VT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. 
A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL WL BE LIKELY FOR THE CPV AND WESTERN 
DACKS BASED ON
CRNT FCST BY LATE SATURDAY. 925MB TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -
4C...ALONG
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -6C AND -8C WITH NORTHERLY 
WINDS ONLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U20S MTNS TO MID 30S VALLEYS...WHICH IS 5 
TO
8 DEGREES BLW THE GUIDANCE. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPS WL WARM
SLIGHT...BUT GIVEN FRESH SNOW PACK AND NORTHERLY FLW...WL CUT
GUIDANCE BY ANOTHER 4 TO 8 DEGREES...BUT KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 
NEAR
MACHINE NUMBERS L/M20S MTNS TO NEAR 30 VALLEYS. WL UPDATE 
HWO WITH
OUR LATEST THINKING ON THIS POTENTIAL LATE SEASON WINTER 
STORM.


On Tue, 29 Mar 2011 15:49:58 -0400, Bruno <[log in to unmask]> 
wrote:

>Potential for snow late in the week per NWS discussion:
>
>AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
>NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
>341 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2011
>
>.SYNOPSIS...
>SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR 
FORECAST AREA
>THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH JUST THE 
CHANCE FOR
>A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING 
THE *CHANCE
>FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT* TO THE NORTH COUNTRY 
AT THE
>END OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH
>THE PERIOD.
>
>Hope to see more on this as the week progresses.
>
>- Bruno
>
>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.
>
>To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html
>

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