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December 2012, Week 3

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sat, 15 Dec 2012 06:50:03 -0500
Content-Type:
text/plain
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text/plain (199 lines)
Expires:201212152115;;552270
FPUS51 KBTV 151122
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2012

VTZ006-152115-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
622 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2012
.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 14. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS AROUND 30.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR SLEET. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...SLEET OR RAIN LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SLEET
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...SNOW OR RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF
SNOW 60 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID
30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
$$

Expires:201212151200;;552801
ASUS41 KBTV 151130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2012
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-151200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     21  12  68 N8        30.36R                  
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    21  16  79 NW6       30.30R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     19  14  81 N7        30.32R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     22  14  71 MISG      30.28R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      17  11  76 NW6       30.28R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    27  21  80 N8        30.29R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    32  20  61 NW3       30.27R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      14   8  77 N5        30.39R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      19  11  73 N7        30.31R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     31  24  75 NW3       30.24R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     16 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     14 N/A N/A NW2         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
DANBY 4 CNRS*    N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     10 N/A N/A NW20        N/A  WCI  -8          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     21  14  73 N2          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     25  19  80 NE17        N/A  WCI  11          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     28  21  74 N21         N/A  WCI  15          
$$

Expires:No;;552252
FXUS61 KBTV 151122
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
BECOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
VERMONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 621 AM EST SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET DAY IN STORE FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA OUT OF
CANADA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. IT MAY BE THE LAST SUNNY DAY FOR
AWHILE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...BRINGING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION MIN TEMPS WILL
DROP TO TYPICAL MID TEENS TO AROUND 20. WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF OVERNIGHT.  
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CHANGING
CONDITIONS. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
30S. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WARM
AIR NUDGES INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND ESPECIALLY THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTRODUCING SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. 
SUNDAY NIGHT WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ALOFT...WHILE SOME
COLDER AIR WILL HOLD ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. EXPECT TO SEE A MIX
OF RAIN...SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT. COLD AIR EAST OF THE GREENS
SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP MAINLY ALL SNOW. QPF LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN
IN THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...THOUGH DO EXPECT TO SEE
MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
MINS MAY DIP ABOUT 5 DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 20S. 
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS MONDAY WEST OF THE GREENS...WITH SNOW CONTINUING IN EASTERN
VERMONT. MAX TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH 40 ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME MID
40S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVER THE 42 HOURS FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY COULD SEE UP TO SIX INCHES EAST OF THE
GREENS WHERE THE WARMER AIR NEVER QUIET MAKES IT IN THERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN CONTINUES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS TWO ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION
WITH GOOD SHOT AT RAINS/SNOWS/MIXED PCPN...THE FIRST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY. 00Z NAEFS/GEFS/ECMWF H5
HEIGHT PATTERNS SUGGEST OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE BLOCKY
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NERN QUEBEC INTO THE DAVIS STRAIT REGION...WITH
FLOW TRENDING WOBBLY AND SOMEWHAT CONVOLUTED ACROSS THE NERN
QUARTER OF THE NATION DURING THE PERIOD. IN THE LONGER TIME
SCALES BEYOND NEXT WEEK THIS BLOCKING PATTERN AND THE PARADE OF
SYSTEMS WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A COLD AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT BEFOREHAND WE MUST DEAL WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS PROCESS. MOST PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
THE DAY TO DAY LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PROFILES...AND THEIR
SUBSEQUENT INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. WITH AMPLE CLOUDS AND LACK OF AVAILABLE DEEP CP AIR TO
INITIALLY WORK WITH THIS WILL BE QUITE THE CHALLENGE AND MOS/RAW
MODEL NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MARGINALLY WARM AND NARROW
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE FRONT END OF BOTH SYSTEMS
AS WELL...AND TIME WILL TELL IF CURRENT MODEL SUITE IS CORRECT ON
DEGREE OF WARMING AND OVERALL PCPN AMNTS. MY INITIAL OPINION IS
THAT WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS WITH
BOTH SYSTEMS. FIRST SYSTEM DOES APPEAR A TAD MILDER THAN ITS LATE
WEEK COUNTERPART...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A BETTER CHC OF MIX IN
THIS REGARD...AND HEDGE TOWARDS A BETTER SHOT OF SNOW FOR END-
WEEK TIME FRAME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...THOUGH SOME LOWER 40S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...THEN 20S
THEREAFTER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SKIES GENERALLY TRENDING
CLEAR TODAY UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM 3 TO 10
KTS. ONLY EXCEPTION WITH BE SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KMSS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 13-15Z. BY TONIGHT VFR CONTINUES UNDER LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS (SOUTHEASTERLY AT
KRUT). A BROAD INCREASE IN HIGH BKN/OVC CIGS ABOVE FL150 IS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z AS WELL. NO PRECIPIATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR FCST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE AREAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL
BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A VARIETY OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG

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