SKIVT-L Archives

December 2012, Week 3

SKIVT-L@LIST.UVM.EDU

Options: Use Monospaced Font
Show Text Part by Default
Show All Mail Headers

Message: [<< First] [< Prev] [Next >] [Last >>]
Topic: [<< First] [< Prev] [Next >] [Last >>]
Author: [<< First] [< Prev] [Next >] [Last >>]

Print Reply
Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Fri, 21 Dec 2012 06:50:02 -0500
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (224 lines)
Expires:201212212115;;819509
FPUS51 KBTV 211124
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

VTZ006-212115-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
624 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
.TODAY...RAIN OR SNOW OR SLEET THIS MORNING...THEN RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION.
HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 1 INCH. LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST AROUND
10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 12. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.CHRISTMAS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
$$

Expires:201212211200;;819704
ASUS41 KBTV 211130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-211200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    40  30  67 S21G36    29.52F                  
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  32  31  96 SE9       29.65F FOG              
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  36  30  80 S9        29.62F FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     32  31  96 MISG      29.69F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW  33  31  91 E12       29.66F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    36  30  80 SE24G46   29.53F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    36  31  82 SE8       29.66F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      37  31  80 SE16      29.51F                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  33  30  89 SE16G23   29.62F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    38  33  82 SE18G36   29.49F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     30 N/A N/A SE5         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
DANBY 4 CNRS*    N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     25 N/A N/A E48G63      N/A  WCI   4          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     39  32  75 SE16        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  34  87 S24         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  32  81 S17         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;819685
FXUS61 KBTV 211129
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BACK TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN
ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EST FRIDAY...OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST MINOR
CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND DEWPT. COMPLEX FORECAST
AS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN NY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING
STILL SEEING SNOW. T-TD SPREAD ALLOWING FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO
KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. EVEN SNOW FOR SEVERAL
HOURS NOT ENOUGH TO MOISTEN THE AIR AND BRIDGE THE T-TD GAP.
EXPECT SNOW TO LAST THROUGH EARLY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NY...MID
MORNING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF VT. SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN FROM
THE SOUTH.
WINDS BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN...WITH GUSTS ON WESTERN SLOPES
25-40 KTS THIS MORNING. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH
WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...ALLOWING FOR MORE MIXING. THE
CORE OF THE SOUTHEAST LLJ WILL BE OOVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING INTO MID DAY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING 850MB WINDS OF
80 KTS...ESP OVER CENTRAL AND N VT. 
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE SFC LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THIS COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SLV FIRST...CHANGING RA
BACK INTO SN. BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN...MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S-M40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EST FRIDAY...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADES WEST
TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
LESSEN...BUT DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVER VT AND EASTERN NY...ALLOWING
FOR WINDS TO GUST TO 10-20KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW WHILE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. FEW SHOWERS
CANT BE RULED OUT OVER VT AND E NY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO L30S.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GAIN MOMENTUM EASTWARD AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE...REINFORCING CAA.
THIS NW FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH COULD
BRING 1-4 MORE INCHES TO THE FAVORED AREA...MAINLY WESTERN SLOPES.
FAVORED WIND DIRECTION MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH FROUDE NUMBERS
AROUND 0.5 INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY TRENDING COLDER. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S TO L30S. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE M20S-
M30S. SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVING COLDER NW FLOW SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND 20S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 529 AM EST FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BOTH
DIFFER AS TO HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WITH THIS LOW
ON TUESDAY. ECMWF MODEL BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL KEEPS SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN MOVE IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ECMWF
MODEL IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE COAST... WHILE THE GFS MODEL
TAKES THE LOW SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES IT NORTHEAST TO EAST
OF CAPE COD BY EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS LOW NEAR
BOSTON EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO HAS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS LOW ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY THAN THE GFS MODEL.
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO BE MAINLY SNOW ON THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF
HINTS AT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT
06Z FRIDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AND SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS WELL. EXPECTING MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO BECOME PLAIN RAIN ACROSS THE REGION BY 14Z FRIDAY...AS TEMPERATURES
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WARM ABOVE FREEZING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO EXPECTING SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS. STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY 23Z FRIDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. COLDER
AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS IN MOST LOCATIONS MAINLY FROM 22Z FRIDAY TO 02Z
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
GIVEN PRIMARY SFC LOW PRES IS TRACKING TO OUR WEST AND STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WL OCCUR ACRS OUR CWA...A LARGE SPREAD IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. THINKING RAINFALL FOR THE
EVENT WL RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.0 CHAMPLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DACKS/SE UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE GREENS AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. EXPECT
SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS...WITH A FEW GAGES LIKE
CENTER RUTLAND GETTING CLOSE TO ACTION STAGE. NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES AREA ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT LATEST TRENDS WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 510 AM EST FRIDAY...HAVE LEFT UP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
TODAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY EARLY THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ003-004-007.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ027-029>031-
     034.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     NYZ034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html

ATOM RSS1 RSS2